AirP. wrote:You're also talking about 2 completely different teams and 2 different roles on the team, Olynyk is a roleplayer who plays in more favorable matchups while K.Love is a main player who plays against starting caliber players much more then Olynyk. I get their stretch bigs but they really aren't performing the same role for each of their teams.
Olynyk / Love
23 / 30 - Minutes per game
66% / 57% - The % of FGA when open or wide open
35% / 34% - the % of hitting 3s when just "open"
https://stats.nba.com/player/203482/shots-dash/https://stats.nba.com/player/201567/shots-dash/Also, when you compare their seasons this year for PER36 for what their rate of stats are.
Love 18.6 pts, 12.5 rebs, 3.1 asts
Olynyk 13.9 pts, 7.6 rebs, 2.1 asts
Love and Olynyk's stats this season.On their ORTG-DRTG Olynyk is way ahead, but once again, one is a main cog on a bad team the other a roleplayer on a good team.
Olynyk +9
Love -3
Looking at the Cavs starters...oof. This ORGT and DRGT does try to extract how a player is effecting the game but it does also calculate what the team on the court with the player is doing and his teammates are horrible by the numbers.
Sexton -15
Osman -12
Garland -30
Thompson +1
Nance +7
Clarkson -6
Kevin Love in this offense next to Bam would be a great addition that would help solidify the starting rotation, his passing in the half court offense would be a plus, his ability to be a main option would allow Butler some more rest, and his rebounding and outlet passing would help get some easy fast break points nearly every game. I get not the perfect fit but with how he has to work on his body to stay in shape(once he committed to that), he seems like a guy who'd fit in with the Heat culture which is an important part of acquiring a high priced player for Miami.
Please excuse my English. It’s not my native tongue and a reason I don’t write much usually.
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here but I still wanted to post something in response when you took your time.
First to restate my argument; I’m not arguing that Olynyk is a strong and dependable playoff player that the Heat should lean on and be content with going forward. I’m arguing that neither is K. Love and that he therefor should be avoided at all costs.
You are correct that they play different roles on different teams but you’re stating it as if that fact wouldn’t be something all the posters who believe Love is a dead end is aware of. We know.
From that you’re making an assumption that playing against starters and with a bigger role (usg%?) would decrease Olynyk’s numbers or in reverse make Love look better (but why would one trade for 30M 4year Love to come off the bench for 20min even if that was the case).
If that argument would hold up, Olynyk’s number would get worse when starting and playing more and or playing in a role with a higher usage. But the opposite is true. Olynyk’s predictive impacts numbers such as PIPM, RPM, four factor RAPM & BPM increases significantly looking back at the previous Heat seasons 17-18 & 18-19 when getting 20-30 starts and a big bump in usg%. This while still maintain the same >.600 TS%. The difference between the two in your stated scenario rather gets wider and more lopsided and I’d say that the posters on this board who wants a look at Olynyk starting next Bam has a very strong case for thinking so.
How about a two year younger K. Love playing alongside (and getting spoon fed by) Lebron in a presumably easier role then his current one: An uptick in TS% towards Olynyk’s >.600 TS% level as expected and a younger Love obviously had a bit more positive impact than the current older and slower version but 17-18 Love vs. 17-18 Olynyk (O’s biggest role and worse teammates in a Heat uniform) is still a one-sided affair when looking at the impact numbers with the strongest relation to predicting who’s driving or hurting a team’s wins.
Olynyk 17-18 (biggest Heat role) – Love 17-18 (As close as possible in age to now but with presumed easier surroundings which was the thesis)
PIPM
2.72 > 2.11
BPM
2.9 > 1.3
RPM
3.34 = 3.40
Four factors - RAPM
2.61 > 1.07
Four factors - LA(luck adjusted)-RAPM
1.51 > 0.49
Olynyk can also get benched for his lack of defence or when the shots don’t fall when required without sulking to ESPN about how sad he is and how unfair the coach are. On top of this, Love is also the less dependable player due to his injury concerns, something I didn’t bother to bring up in my first post but is a strike against him.
As for tracking data and the difference in how contested or uncontested their shot are, your assumption that the difference depends on their different roles, teammate and opponent quality I have some notes.
Yes it’s possible that is the reason but we don’t know. I can come up with plenty of other reasons to why that might be that case. For example it could be used as an argument that Olynyk is more mobile and better at getting open before his shots. Imagine being more mobile that K. Love?
. Or that Olynyk takes better quality shots without going for yeaj! point volume. Or that Love has a slower release that therefor gets more contested. Or that Love is shorter and the shot height is lower and worth contesting for the opponent at all.
Personally I don’t look at this part of the tracking data due to the significant errors in it that we know of. For example, from what I understand, we know that the tracking data can't account for limbs yet so It's possible that's where some of the disconnect to the table below rests.
or do one think that Celtics is the luckiest team or one of the luckiest in the league year after year after year after year. I don’t. I believe they contest shots that aren’t recorded by the program.
I don’t get why one would prefer this Ortg Drtg estimate stuff as the basis for player evaluation. And even when this ff estimation shows Love as a neutral to bad player, worse than Olynyk you again blame it on his surroundings as if that magically would make him find his fountain of youth and footwork frequency. You've been citing this statistical estimate all season long but now it's not good enough anymore when it no longer suites your argument? (It never was good for player evaluation to begin with)
How well does per36 basic volume stats correlate to wins and losses? not very well I can tell you that. There's about 100 worthless point in every NBA game that any team or player can make on any given night. It's about the other 10-15 points on both ends that count every night. How efficient you can help your team be on every given possession. If your contribution isn't with these 10-15 point your contribution is nada. Empty hollow yeaj points or rebounds.
Look at Love's closeouts to the corners next time CLE plays. Olynyk is late yes, and if not he gets traffic coned but at least that gives the team a chance to recover. Love is just standing under the basket waiting for the traditional boxscore rebound yeaj! That is a horrible teammate and a detriment to team morale.
About the solidifying of the starting unit I again disagree. A theoretical fit, just like Olynyk and Leonard but it’s usage the Heat don’t want to give away and defence Heat can’t afford. Butler Bam and hopefully soon Winslow is already hustling every night covering up for Leonard, Olynyk, Dragic and Herro, players who at least attempts to run and rotate out there. Rebounding is fine and all but as a user of the four factor estimate rtg I’d assume that you’re aware that rebounding is 20% of winning while preventing the opponent from getting their preferred shot off (eFG%) accounts for 40% of success.
Love’s passing ability has a negative ass/to ratio just like Olynyk. That solidifies nothing and is usage that can be distributed in better ways to players that plays both ways. I also disagree that he’s a guy that fits Heat culture but this is of course 100% subjective from us both: I imagine a phone-call sounding something like this:
Pat: Wade, what about Love? Wade: Nope.
Love is in good shape from what I can tell, better than it’s been and he’s having a decent bounce back season in many categories volume categories (Seems like he really want out of CLE). Unfortunately this bounce is more of a dead cat bounce not even enough to eclipse the 17M dollar and two seasons cheaper Olynyk in terms of winning impact.
I just listened to the latest Lowe Post and there was a long segment of possible trade destinations for K. Love. They couldn’t come up with any reasonable scenarios or reasons to why anyone would want him, and along the way they touched on a possible Heat offer: They concluded that Winslow would be an overpay and not something that Heat would have to give up if they would want him (but why would they?) and they settled a fair price in return for K. Love to be…
Micheal Kidd-Gilchrist
Bismack Biyombo
and..
Malik Monk.
That’s Love’s current status as an NBA-player.
It should also be noted that RPM for this season were released today and that it was another data point in favour of us who believe Love to be long gone.
RPM – 1.39 (2nd page, 59th ranked PF in the league per possession)
Not good or what this board would call, Oof.
Someone might give up something of value for Love in a week for all I know. This league has a history of desperate GM's taking on negative money to win a presser. I just pray to the basketball gods that it's not the Heat.
