Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It?

[twix2500]

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Look how well and comfortable Nunn plays off of Bam. That needs to be utilized more.

[AirP.]

Spoiler:

Please excuse my English. It’s not my native tongue and a reason I don’t write much usually.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here but I still wanted to post something in response when you took your time.

First to restate my argument; I’m not arguing that Olynyk is a strong and dependable playoff player that the Heat should lean on and be content with going forward. I’m arguing that neither is K. Love and that he therefor should be avoided at all costs.

You are correct that they play different roles on different teams but you’re stating it as if that fact wouldn’t be something all the posters who believe Love is a dead end is aware of. We know.

From that you’re making an assumption that playing against starters and with a bigger role (usg%?) would decrease Olynyk’s numbers or in reverse make Love look better (but why would one trade for 30M 4year Love to come off the bench for 20min even if that was the case).
If that argument would hold up, Olynyk’s number would get worse when starting and playing more and or playing in a role with a higher usage. But the opposite is true. Olynyk’s predictive impacts numbers such as PIPM, RPM, four factor RAPM & BPM increases significantly looking back at the previous Heat seasons 17-18 & 18-19 when getting 20-30 starts and a big bump in usg%. This while still maintain the same >.600 TS%. The difference between the two in your stated scenario rather gets wider and more lopsided and I’d say that the posters on this board who wants a look at Olynyk starting next Bam has a very strong case for thinking so.

How about a two year younger K. Love playing alongside (and getting spoon fed by) Lebron in a presumably easier role then his current one: An uptick in TS% towards Olynyk’s >.600 TS% level as expected and a younger Love obviously had a bit more positive impact than the current older and slower version but 17-18 Love vs. 17-18 Olynyk (O’s biggest role and worse teammates in a Heat uniform) is still a one-sided affair when looking at the impact numbers with the strongest relation to predicting who’s driving or hurting a team’s wins.

Olynyk 17-18 (biggest Heat role) – Love 17-18 (As close as possible in age to now but with presumed easier surroundings which was the thesis)

PIPM

2.72 > 2.11

BPM

2.9 > 1.3

RPM

3.34 = 3.40

Four factors - RAPM

2.61 > 1.07

Four factors - LA(luck adjusted)-RAPM

1.51 > 0.49

Olynyk can also get benched for his lack of defence or when the shots don’t fall when required without sulking to ESPN about how sad he is and how unfair the coach are. On top of this, Love is also the less dependable player due to his injury concerns, something I didn’t bother to bring up in my first post but is a strike against him.

As for tracking data and the difference in how contested or uncontested their shot are, your assumption that the difference depends on their different roles, teammate and opponent quality I have some notes.

Yes it’s possible that is the reason but we don’t know. I can come up with plenty of other reasons to why that might be that case. For example it could be used as an argument that Olynyk is more mobile and better at getting open before his shots. Imagine being more mobile that K. Love? . Or that Olynyk takes better quality shots without going for yeaj! point volume. Or that Love has a slower release that therefor gets more contested. Or that Love is shorter and the shot height is lower and worth contesting for the opponent at all.

Personally I don’t look at this part of the tracking data due to the significant errors in it that we know of. For example, from what I understand, we know that the tracking data can't account for limbs yet so It's possible that's where some of the disconnect to the table below rests.



or do one think that Celtics is the luckiest team or one of the luckiest in the league year after year after year after year. I don’t. I believe they contest shots that aren’t recorded by the program.

I don’t get why one would prefer this Ortg Drtg estimate stuff as the basis for player evaluation. And even when this ff estimation shows Love as a neutral to bad player, worse than Olynyk you again blame it on his surroundings as if that magically would make him find his fountain of youth and footwork frequency. You've been citing this statistical estimate all season long but now it's not good enough anymore when it no longer suites your argument? (It never was good for player evaluation to begin with)

How well does per36 basic volume stats correlate to wins and losses? not very well I can tell you that. There's about 100 worthless point in every NBA game that any team or player can make on any given night. It's about the other 10-15 points on both ends that count every night. How efficient you can help your team be on every given possession. If your contribution isn't with these 10-15 point your contribution is nada. Empty hollow yeaj points or rebounds.

Look at Love's closeouts to the corners next time CLE plays. Olynyk is late yes, and if not he gets traffic coned but at least that gives the team a chance to recover. Love is just standing under the basket waiting for the traditional boxscore rebound yeaj! That is a horrible teammate and a detriment to team morale.

About the solidifying of the starting unit I again disagree. A theoretical fit, just like Olynyk and Leonard but it’s usage the Heat don’t want to give away and defence Heat can’t afford. Butler Bam and hopefully soon Winslow is already hustling every night covering up for Leonard, Olynyk, Dragic and Herro, players who at least attempts to run and rotate out there. Rebounding is fine and all but as a user of the four factor estimate rtg I’d assume that you’re aware that rebounding is 20% of winning while preventing the opponent from getting their preferred shot off (eFG%) accounts for 40% of success.

Love’s passing ability has a negative ass/to ratio just like Olynyk. That solidifies nothing and is usage that can be distributed in better ways to players that plays both ways. I also disagree that he’s a guy that fits Heat culture but this is of course 100% subjective from us both: I imagine a phone-call sounding something like this:

Pat: Wade, what about Love? Wade: Nope.

Love is in good shape from what I can tell, better than it’s been and he’s having a decent bounce back season in many categories volume categories (Seems like he really want out of CLE). Unfortunately this bounce is more of a dead cat bounce not even enough to eclipse the 17M dollar and two seasons cheaper Olynyk in terms of winning impact.

I just listened to the latest Lowe Post and there was a long segment of possible trade destinations for K. Love. They couldn’t come up with any reasonable scenarios or reasons to why anyone would want him, and along the way they touched on a possible Heat offer: They concluded that Winslow would be an overpay and not something that Heat would have to give up if they would want him (but why would they?) and they settled a fair price in return for K. Love to be…

Micheal Kidd-Gilchrist

Bismack Biyombo

and..

Malik Monk.

That’s Love’s current status as an NBA-player.

It should also be noted that RPM for this season were released today and that it was another data point in favour of us who believe Love to be long gone.

RPM – 1.39 (2nd page, 59th ranked PF in the league per possession)

Not good or what this board would call, Oof.

Someone might give up something of value for Love in a week for all I know. This league has a history of desperate GM's taking on negative money to win a presser. I just pray to the basketball gods that it's not the Heat.

Thanks for the reply and actually bringing data to the table also, that's way better then just hearing someone say you're wrong but giving no real reason why.

I'm not going to go one by one on a long post although you make very good points and I think people should read them. I heard that offer they came up on the podcast for Love to go to the Hornets and it would depend how high you are on Monk(which I'm not), I wouldn't mind MKG or Biyombo coming off the bench for Miami but MKG seems like a version of Winslow without the passing.

I use a lot of data to prove points but there are times when context has to be taken in consideration also and that's why I'm higher on Kevin Love then most so let me give that argument.

So here's a quick summary of the situations for K.Love leading up to now.
Minnesota
Love was a monster in Minnesota, his last year in Minnesota he put up 26.1 pts and 12.5 rebounds while dishing out 4.4 assists with a TS% of .591. He was in a situation that catered to him.
Cleveland with LeBron
Love was traded to Cleveland for the overall #1 pick(Wiggins) and with LeBron on the team, had his role reduced to basically a roleplayer, his best spots on the court to score from were LeBron's best spots and with that, LeBron gets those spots. That first year in Cleveland he put up 16.4 ppg, 9.7 reb and 2.2 assists with a TS% of .562, during his time in Cleveland he did peak at 19 ppg with 11.1 reb but really was still playing as a high level roleplayer.
Cleveland post Lebron, rebuild mode
LeBron left 2 years ago and since then Cleveland has been in a rebuild mode, K.Love who is by far the best player on that team was 3rd in shot attempts behind a rookie PG and 6th man off the bench that 1st rebuild year and this year he's in 2nd at 11.3 fga. Good lord, T.Thompson is basically getting the same amount of shot attempts as K.Love, if that packaged with K.Love's current effort level doesn't tell you he's not being utilized well in Cleveland I don't know what to tell ya.

So, my argument for Kevin Love is this.
Love has shown the ability to be an efficient high volume scorer and great rebounder in the NBA before having his role drastically reduced in Cleveland for LeBron and now with Cleveland doing a rebuild, they're not exactly utiling K.Love like he should be which ends up leading to K.Love not giving a good effort for the last 2 years. In my opinion, it's gotta be hard to be the best player on the team yet you're basically an afterthought in the offense because the franchise is focused on developing the the players it's moving forward as a franchise with. All Cleveland did was resign Love as an asset, they kinda forgot they have to put him in a situation to put up stats to get good value out of him. Then again, I could be wrong

I just happen to believe any team trading for Love now has a plan for how they're going to utilize him and with that, much better play from him.

BTW... I like K.Olynyk and would be fine with him as a starter although he's never played big minutes, I'm just looking for way for this team to upgrade 1 or 2 spots to give this team a chance to compete. I think a vet like Love, CP3 or even DeRozan would help stabilize this offense to be in every game instead of some of these blowouts because the young guys can't hit that night. Also, I wouldn't trade Butler, Bam, Herro, Nunn, Robinson, and probably not Dragic either for any of those players. I'd try to see what I could get with the remaining salaries or assets.

Watching K.Love closely tonight against San Antonio, Olynyk is nowhere near the player Love is, it's not even close. He's making great cross-court passes to open teammates who are missing shots, recognizing mismatches and taking smaller players into the post, able to to make step-back jumpers, hitting a 3 that just looks like a good shot, and he even delivered a simple between the legs pass to a teammate going around him for a screen... yes a big that talented would help this team greatly.

[dean456]

He's very smart and savvy, rarely makes a bad decision or takes a bad shot. And shockingly, I'm starting to feel that he's becoming an above average defender. He's not athletic but he got some foot speed, good length and high IQ. He's becoming a really high level role player.

He's a player I think Miami needs to start looking at as a long term core player for the team and with that, alter the offense some to make better use of his talents. There are long stretches where Robinson doesn't shoot the ball and that shouldn't be happening to a shooter like him.

Core, wow that is very high praise. I think that is a stretch.

After the stretch of games he's had I don't think its a stretch. Teams can't take a defender off him or they will pay for it, that skill set alone is a highly sought after commodity in the NBA but when you add to that his improved defense, BBall IQ and the cost of keeping him over the next two years I think its a no brainer. Now depending on what he cost's us when 2021 rolls around that might be a different story.

Edit - just saw your explanations Twix. I was talking the same as AirP. Core for me just means players who you would like to keep long term/wouldn't trade outside of something special.

[heatwillbeback]

We suspended Dion again.

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[County of Wade]

If only there was a way to get rid of him and it not hurt our cap. But unfortunately, his idiocy is only hurting himself and making him untradeable.

[Bourne85]

Warned you guys, Waiters is done here. Theses “illnesses” have been cover ups and nothing more. JJ is in the same boat.

[heatwillbeback]

Warned you guys, Waiters is done here. Theses “illnesses” have been cover ups and nothing more. JJ is in the same boat.

Its crazy good (and a little sad) the production we are getting with so much of our cap tied up in turds.

[DayofMourning]

That caliban post brought a tear to my eye. Hair was raised on my arms.

[Kobewade11]

We suspended Dion again.

Read on Twitter

should've done like I said and just told him to stay home.

[heatwillbeback]

We suspended Dion again.

Read on Twitter

should've done like I said and just told him to stay home.

Let him keep acting a fool because then we don't have to pay him.

[Heat3]

We suspended Dion again.

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[DayofMourning]

I remember reading somewhere that a contract could be canceled due to gross insubordination. Can't find it now. Maybe Miami working it's way towards that with Dion.

[KingDavid]

The hell did this idiot do now

[heatwillbeback]

I remember reading somewhere that a contract could be canceled due to gross insubordination. Can't find it now. Maybe Miami working it's way towards that with Dion.

I haven't heard of it in NBA with guaranteed deals.

But it did happen in NFL with Antonio Brown in Oakland. And its tied up in appeals so who knows if it worked or not.

[Bourne85]

I still can’t believe Riley gave him that contract in the first place. That was the pure definition of contract year explosion but it was more like contract 30game streak. Riley has been fooled by quite a few players recently, Whiteside included. It goes back to what MJ said, these guys getting paid WAY too much, once you sign on the dotted line, there is lil incentive to actually try and improve.

[AirP.]

Was Waiters with the team when they visited the kids at the hospital today?

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[Bishop45]

How does this keep getting worse for Dion?

[AirP.]

How does this keep getting worse for Dion?

He's put himself in the position where he's going to have to go to China to keep making money playing basketball after his current contract expires.

[AirP.]

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[Wiltside]

Dion done lost his mind.

This tell all eventually is gonna be juicy. As juicy as a gummy.