Trade Thread Part Deux

[MagicBagley18]

Except I did:




viewtopic.php?f=8&t=1835178&p=75019614&hilit=Horford#p75019614

Thats me from last May.

The market last year was way more conducive for people to get paid and Horford is a significantly better player than Hayward is today. He may crack 20, but it wont be by much.

Memphis, Atlanta and Cleveland are the best fits for him and those are pretty big stretches at that. This would be a bad year for him to opt out.

Outside of you then the overwhelmingly majority of ppl did not. I’m one of them. Most people didn’t either. You did. Kudos. that being said I still think Hayward will get 25m at minimum

I’d be shocked if he opted out, personally. Guessing he’d rather be a FA in 2021 when pretty much every team has cap space.

That’s a good point about 2021 and all of your reasoning is perfect and good call on the horford contract. I just think him suffering that catastrophic injury will have a role in his decision making. With horford we hoped what would happen and I think a lot of that was just us fans wanting him to take less annually for security but with Hayward there’s a real injury factor at play here.

If he opts in and hurts that leg again his career could be over. Getting the long term security on what should be his last huge long term deal could be his best bet

[djFan71]

Outside of you then the overwhelmingly majority of ppl did not. I’m one of them. Most people didn’t either. You did. Kudos. that being said I still think Hayward will get 25m at minimum

I’d be shocked if he opted out, personally. Guessing he’d rather be a FA in 2021 when pretty much every team has cap space.

That’s a good point about 2021 and all of your reasoning is perfect and good call on the horford contract. I just think him suffering that catastrophic injury will have a role in his decision making. With horford we hoped what would happen and I think a lot of that was just us fans wanting him to take less annually for security but with Hayward there’s a real injury factor at play here.

If he opts in and hurts that leg again his career could be over. Getting the long term security on what should be his last huge long term deal could be his best bet

I haven't looked today, but iirc 2021 is a much better FA class as well. And he's a year older, and he's more likely proven one way or another if he's back or ever will be by that summer. I think 2020 gives him a better shot at convincing a team in a down FA class to give him another 3 year deal to see if he truly recovers or not. Obviously, dependent on his health/performance the rest of this year.

[MagicBagley18]

I’d be shocked if he opted out, personally. Guessing he’d rather be a FA in 2021 when pretty much every team has cap space.

That’s a good point about 2021 and all of your reasoning is perfect and good call on the horford contract. I just think him suffering that catastrophic injury will have a role in his decision making. With horford we hoped what would happen and I think a lot of that was just us fans wanting him to take less annually for security but with Hayward there’s a real injury factor at play here.

If he opts in and hurts that leg again his career could be over. Getting the long term security on what should be his last huge long term deal could be his best bet

I haven't looked today, but iirc 2021 is a much better FA class as well. And he's a year older, and he's more likely proven one way or another if he's back or ever will be by that summer. I think 2020 gives him a better shot at convincing a team in a down FA class to give him another 3 year deal to see if he truly recovers or not. Obviously, dependent on his health/performance the rest of this year.

It’s the Giannis free agent class and I believe others could potentially be free agents as well. A team looking for Giannis (if he’s a free agent I don’t think he will be) is probably not also interested in Hayward but having those big fish out there does put everything else in free agency in a holding pattern

[SmartWentCrazy]

I’d be shocked if he opted out, personally. Guessing he’d rather be a FA in 2021 when pretty much every team has cap space.

That’s a good point about 2021 and all of your reasoning is perfect and good call on the horford contract. I just think him suffering that catastrophic injury will have a role in his decision making. With horford we hoped what would happen and I think a lot of that was just us fans wanting him to take less annually for security but with Hayward there’s a real injury factor at play here.

If he opts in and hurts that leg again his career could be over. Getting the long term security on what should be his last huge long term deal could be his best bet

I haven't looked today, but iirc 2021 is a much better FA class as well. And he's a year older, and he's more likely proven one way or another if he's back or ever will be by that summer. I think 2020 gives him a better shot at convincing a team in a down FA class to give him another 3 year deal to see if he truly recovers or not. Obviously, dependent on his health/performance the rest of this year.

2021 is better, but far more teams have money than there are elite FAs so Hayward would be better positioned to get an above expected offer IMO.

[klemen4]

If he would opt out he sure would want to go to a contender and the best teams only have mle, so around 10 million.

So he can take 34 mill from Boston for 20/21 and than let's say 30 million 3 year mle for contender in 2021...together that's 64 million for 4 years

...imo if we offer 4 years 70 - 80 million this summer if he oputs out...he will take it.

[Bill Lumbergh]

And his market value is a matter of opinion until it's revealed this summer, if he opts out. You said earlier in this thread that you'd like to sign him for 3/90, which I want no part of. If somebody wants him for that, bon voyage, Gordon. Seriously, though, it'd be stupid to let him walk with no return, as we have no cap space. I'd rather trade him to keep cap flexibility. If that doesn't happen before Feb 5, we'll just have to wait and see what his market value is. There ARE dumb franchises out there, so you might be right, and he'll get 3/90. I don't see Wyc paying 4 guys ~ 30M a year unless they morph into Steph, Klay, Durant, & Draymond (and Draymond only gets that because they already had the other guys.)
He said he'd go deep into luxury tax for a real contender. Resigning Hayward basically keeps what we have now, in terms of headliners, and we're not a real contender. Regardless of my own likes, I don't think the Celtics resign him for 30M per. We'll just have to wait and see, though.

So solve the riddle, then. Barring a major injury, Hayward will likely opt out and get a much bigger contract than 3/66. With that knowledge, do you trade him at the deadline, and if so, for what? Or do you let him walk for nothing, and if so, what do we do from there?

Everything else is just white noise until people articulate a realistic plan. Speaking in non-specific generalities is not being intellectually engaged at all.

I would offer that 3/90 for Hayward carries little opportunity cost, and does little to limit our options, and that Jaylen is the one who has to go if we actually want a **** decent return.

I think you're pretty close, unfortunately. Not much point in opting out to sign for 3/$66M when he can get over half that by opting in. People thought we'd get Al for similar money on a resign deal and that didn't happen.

Obviously, his health the rest of the season determines things. Big injury, he opts in. Healthy, he opts out and gets in the range you say since the FA class is so weak. The big question is if he muddles along like he has since returning last month. Foot still bothers him, he has some really good games, then some ineffective ones, but never really hits a full stride. At that point, I'm not sure what he would get or what he does. Probably opt in and see if another year helps him recover more.

I think the only option on trading him is to just split up the next year cost into more easily tradeable chunks. You can't get value for him this deadline with all the uncertainty, so a lot of the proposed deals don't seem to be realistic, imo. Gordon for Dedmon/Joseph/POR 2nds with rounding salary filler to make it work. Horrible trade for us on the court, but SAC gets out of guys they don't want and hope Gordon plays well and/or opts out and we can use the smaller salaries and picks on draft day for trades, so we don't lose the salary.

Obviously, that's not super attractive. But can you flip Dedmon/Romeo/BOS 20 for Myles Turner at the draft? Dedmon basically an expiring ($1M guarantee for 21-22). Or something similar with Joesph. Gives you a little more maneuverability then Gordon's "will he opt in or not" max deal.

But, you're still better off hoping Gordon gets back to where he was in Nov and resign him.

Your idea of trading Gordon for a couple smaller salaried guys is basically where I'm at, too, mainly to retain flexibility for trades next year. Plus, if we get a couple of guys who will be real upgrades to our bench, I don't think it'll impact winning this year much at all. The Jays can absorb a couple extra minutes. They're young. And like I said, I'd like to pick up Markieff Morris for the stretch run, too, who could absorb a chunk of Hayward's minutes, and would provide a level of toughness that the current squad lacks.

Here's a tweak to your Sac trade: Dedmon/Joseph/Bjelica for Hayward/Poirier/Edwards. Picks to tweak as necessary. Then pick up Morris. I think we'd be a little improved going into the playoffs, and retain flexibility going forward with those contracts. We've got way too much youth on our bench. This fixes that a bit, and yet retains Romeo and Grant.

[djFan71]

That’s a good point about 2021 and all of your reasoning is perfect and good call on the horford contract. I just think him suffering that catastrophic injury will have a role in his decision making. With horford we hoped what would happen and I think a lot of that was just us fans wanting him to take less annually for security but with Hayward there’s a real injury factor at play here.

If he opts in and hurts that leg again his career could be over. Getting the long term security on what should be his last huge long term deal could be his best bet

I haven't looked today, but iirc 2021 is a much better FA class as well. And he's a year older, and he's more likely proven one way or another if he's back or ever will be by that summer. I think 2020 gives him a better shot at convincing a team in a down FA class to give him another 3 year deal to see if he truly recovers or not. Obviously, dependent on his health/performance the rest of this year.

2021 is better, but far more teams have money than there are elite FAs so Hayward would be better positioned to get an above expected offer IMO.

Yeah, I think he can get $ either year, really. The crux of it is he holds all the cards with the option. His value is shot now due to inconsistent play / possible lingering injury / option. So, it's gonna be tough to get much for him by Feb 5. But, come July, there will be a lot more data on him. If that data sucks, he opts in. If it's really good, opt out this summer and bank the $. If it's still inconclusive, then it's your plan - opt in and hope to strike it one last time in 2021.

[jmr07019]

I don't see a big market for Hayward. He'll be 30 this summer with a troubling injury history. Rebuilding teams will want someone younger and if they can't get anyone they'll overpay a decent player on a 1 year deal. Contenders won't have the money to give him a big deal. Teams looking to sign 1 or 2 max FAs and become a contender are gonna aim higher than Hayward. I don't see 25+ / year. 15-20 / year seems right.

[djFan71]

Hayward, Semi, Perrier to Miami

J Winslow, K Olynyk, D Waiters, first rounder to Boston

Wow. just wow.

That's about his value right now. If you want to move on, that's what you're looking at.

Which is why I don't see any trade happening. We're much better off hoping Gordon gets over the foot thing - ceiling is just way higher if he does. But there's really no incentive for a team to take on that risk for us and give back really good players.

[Curmudgeon]

Ainge is wildly unlikely to trade Hayward to an EC contender like Miami. A package like RoCo and Dieng makes more sense.

[djFan71]

Ainge is wildly unlikely to trade Hayward to an EC contender like Miami. A package like RoCo and Dieng makes more sense.

For us, sure. But why for MIN?

[100proof]

Ainge is wildly unlikely to trade Hayward to an EC contender like Miami. A package like RoCo and Dieng makes more sense.

For us, sure. But why for MIN?

They need playmaking to make a playoff push, and a vet presence to run the show. Hayward gives them that is spades.

Gordon, Semi and Boston pick to Minny
Covington, and Bucks Pick to Orlando
Dieng, Gordon to Orlando

[djFan71]

Ainge is wildly unlikely to trade Hayward to an EC contender like Miami. A package like RoCo and Dieng makes more sense.

For us, sure. But why for MIN?

They need playmaking to make a playoff push, and a vet presence to run the show. Hayward gives them that is spades.

Gordon, Semi and Boston pick to Minny
Covington, and Bucks Pick to Orlando
Dieng, Gordon to Orlando

If he's healthy and consistent. Which he won't be able to prove he is by Feb 5. And, he just came out and said his foot will be an ongoing issue he has to manage. I just don't see him as having positive value at this deadline, esp with the player option.

We're kinda stuck with hoping he gets healthy and back to where he was in Nov. And if he does, we reap the rewards. But, I don't know why another team would want to assume that risk and send back good players to do so.

[Captain_Caveman]

And his market value is a matter of opinion until it's revealed this summer, if he opts out. You said earlier in this thread that you'd like to sign him for 3/90, which I want no part of. If somebody wants him for that, bon voyage, Gordon. Seriously, though, it'd be stupid to let him walk with no return, as we have no cap space. I'd rather trade him to keep cap flexibility. If that doesn't happen before Feb 5, we'll just have to wait and see what his market value is. There ARE dumb franchises out there, so you might be right, and he'll get 3/90. I don't see Wyc paying 4 guys ~ 30M a year unless they morph into Steph, Klay, Durant, & Draymond (and Draymond only gets that because they already had the other guys.)
He said he'd go deep into luxury tax for a real contender. Resigning Hayward basically keeps what we have now, in terms of headliners, and we're not a real contender. Regardless of my own likes, I don't think the Celtics resign him for 30M per. We'll just have to wait and see, though.

So solve the riddle, then. Barring a major injury, Hayward will likely opt out and get a much bigger contract than 3/66. With that knowledge, do you trade him at the deadline, and if so, for what? Or do you let him walk for nothing, and if so, what do we do from there?

Everything else is just white noise until people articulate a realistic plan. Speaking in non-specific generalities is not being intellectually engaged at all.

I would offer that 3/90 for Hayward carries little opportunity cost, and does little to limit our options, and that Jaylen is the one who has to go if we actually want a **** decent return.

I think you're pretty close, unfortunately. Not much point in opting out to sign for 3/$66M when he can get over half that by opting in. People thought we'd get Al for similar money on a resign deal and that didn't happen.

Obviously, his health the rest of the season determines things. Big injury, he opts in. Healthy, he opts out and gets in the range you say since the FA class is so weak. The big question is if he muddles along like he has since returning last month. Foot still bothers him, he has some really good games, then some ineffective ones, but never really hits a full stride. At that point, I'm not sure what he would get or what he does. Probably opt in and see if another year helps him recover more.

I think the only option on trading him is to just split up the next year cost into more easily tradeable chunks. You can't get value for him this deadline with all the uncertainty, so a lot of the proposed deals don't seem to be realistic, imo. Gordon for Dedmon/Joseph/POR 2nds with rounding salary filler to make it work. Horrible trade for us on the court, but SAC gets out of guys they don't want and hope Gordon plays well and/or opts out and we can use the smaller salaries and picks on draft day for trades, so we don't lose the salary.

Obviously, that's not super attractive. But can you flip Dedmon/Romeo/BOS 20 for Myles Turner at the draft? Dedmon basically an expiring ($1M guarantee for 21-22). Or something similar with Joesph. Gives you a little more maneuverability then Gordon's "will he opt in or not" max deal.

But, you're still better off hoping Gordon gets back to where he was in Nov and resign him.

Thanks for answering. I have read and considered this, and agree we are better off just keeping Gordon.

[Captain_Caveman]

There's absolutely no way Hayward opts out. He's not getting 30mil anywhere else and he knows that.

We literally do this thread every year. I don't gamble, but would an exception for this free money. You 100% opt out unless you are majorly injured. He can easily get 3/75, and likely a lot more. Which makes it a no-brainer.

[ddb]

If I'm Gordon Hayward here is my mindset with having a player opt at seasons end.....

Pros: Coach Stevens. Great sports town. Competitive team. Cons: 2 of their best players play the same position as me. Have had bad luck since coming to Boston. Cold weather & probably not where I want to settle my kids at school long-term as they grow older.

If I'm Danny Ainge I'm thinking.....
I'd love to win with Hayward here and get him locked into a long-term deal. he's not the problem. But I've learned a valuable lesson with what Al Horford did this past summer going after $$. I can't lose him for nothing..... But I also don't want to screw him because he's a great kid...then again it's a business and I need to do what's best for the team. O, ****...but if I trade him that may not settle well with my prized coach. crap. so how do I improve the roster?
If I trade Smart that would be suicide to the team. I can't trade JT/JB right now those are the young studs I have. I brought Kemba here with the promise of winning.
Alright, fine. I'll make minor trades to bolster the bench and hope my core gets healthy and finds their rhythm heading into the playoffs.

[Celts17Pride]

It’s a lot more of an issue to get vet bench help than it is trading Gordon Hayward. I have yet to see a “realistic trade” of Hayward that actually makes the Celtics better

[Captain_Caveman]

Hayward isnt going to get more than 20M per year on the open market. I just dont see it, to be honest.

Neither of us or anyone here saw horford getting what he got from Philly. Hayward is 16/6/5 IMO someone will pay him

Except I did:

Honestly think he’ll get a 4/100 deal, if not more. Every team could use a guy like Horford and many teams have money to spend.

Id try to have him opt in and then give him a 3/70 extension.

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=1835178&p=75019614&hilit=Horford#p75019614

Thats me from last May.

The market last year was way more conducive for people to get paid and Horford is a significantly better player than Hayward is today. He may crack 20, but it wont be by much.

Memphis, Atlanta and Cleveland are the best fits for him and those are pretty big stretches at that. This would be a bad year for him to opt out.

As someone who also swore up and down that Horford would opt out, you are low on Hayward.

[Captain_Caveman]

Ainge is wildly unlikely to trade Hayward to an EC contender like Miami. A package like RoCo and Dieng makes more sense.

Gave you an and-1 for the 1st sentence, but had to take it back for the second one.

[robdog_5]

I don't think he's getting 25 mil a year from anyone. 20 maybe max. And if that's the case you dont opt out. You take 34 mil. And it only takes 2 years of 13 mil a year to match that same money.