So do we Like Brett Brown?

[Arsenal]

Really can't believe there is such angst about a simple lineup change of benching Horford.

If the Toronto Raptors can bench Ibaka who is making $20M+ per year because they don't want to start him with Gasol, the same logic applies to us and Horford.

Ibaka has played 27 mpg the last 3 years, and much of the last two he has come off the bench.

No reason at all Horford can't do the same as a 4 year older player with some nagging injuries. He shouldn't be playing 30+ mpg anyway.

[youngcrev]

Really can't believe there is such angst about a simple lineup change of benching Horford.

If the Toronto Raptors can bench Ibaka who is making $20M+ per year because they don't want to start him with Gasol, the same logic applies to us and Horford.

Ibaka has played 27 mpg the last 3 years, and much of the last two he has come off the bench.

No reason at all Horford can't do the same as a 4 year older player with some nagging injuries. He shouldn't be playing 30+ mpg anyway.

Agreed with the sentiment, though there's a little more to it than you are implying.

Ibaka started every game he played his first full season he played with the Raptors, 51 of 74 last year, and 20 of 43 this year. It's also not like he signed that big contract and then they said, "OK, you're coming off the bench" the same year.

In addition to that, in the games that he came off the bench last year, he was only averaging 21.9 mpg and 22.9 this year.

I think it's the right move (and frankly, a pretty obvious one to make), but Horford and the rest of the organization also have to be on board with it, because things can get uglier here.

[Arsenal]

Really can't believe there is such angst about a simple lineup change of benching Horford.

If the Toronto Raptors can bench Ibaka who is making $20M+ per year because they don't want to start him with Gasol, the same logic applies to us and Horford.

Ibaka has played 27 mpg the last 3 years, and much of the last two he has come off the bench.

No reason at all Horford can't do the same as a 4 year older player with some nagging injuries. He shouldn't be playing 30+ mpg anyway.

Agreed with the sentiment, though there's a little more to it than you are implying.

Ibaka started every game he played his first full season he played with the Raptors, 51 of 74 last year, and 20 of 43 this year. It's also not like he signed that big contract and then they said, "OK, you're coming off the bench" the same year.

In addition to that, in the games that he came off the bench last year, he was only averaging 21.9 mpg and 22.9 this year.

I think it's the right move (and frankly, a pretty obvious one to make), but Horford and the rest of the organization also have to be on board with it, because things can get uglier here.

Things are already extremely ugly precisely because they haven't made this change yet. They've alienated their star player, the fans, and the star player's relationship with the fans.

By comparison alienating Horford is no big deal.

Likely a bigger reason is because the front office doesn't want to look stupid. Unfortunately they look more stupid continuing this failed experiment as opposed to making the obvious change.

As for the minutes, yes Horford should probably only play 20-25 mpg when Embiid is in. In the MANY games that Embiid will miss he should play 30-35 mpg. In the end it'll average out around 25-27 mpg just like Ibaka. Which should be perfectly fine at his age.

It's not like he's playing for an upcoming contract.

[Mavericksfan]

I think the terrible Sixer fanbase is the reason Embiid is making noise. He’s playing with one hand only to be met with boos.

Why are you so sure that’s “not enough”? Embiid has been coasting for the most part.

Besides who would you start in Horford’s place? The Matisse lineups havent been better. You could try Kork especially depending the matchup or one of the new guys. But there’s no guarantee the lineup will do better.

I’m not arguing that he definitely shouldnt bench Horford but I just want y’all to put more thought into then just pretending it’s the obvious answer.

It's not even close to good enough for the starting 5 to be +8.3 if we want to contend. For reference, our starting units the last 2 years:

2018-19 Embiid/Simmons/Harris/Butler/Redick: +19.4
2017-18 Embiid/Simmons/Saric/Covington/Redick: +20.5

Why are those your reference? The 2018 team wasnt contending. The Sixers previous starting lineups has great synergy and an Embiid giving 100% every night.

https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?CF=MIN*GE*240&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1

The starting lineup is 8th in net rating for lineups that have played as many minutes. It’s above any Clippers lineup as well (who I guess you dont consider a contender). I dont see it as a big deal because they only really play the first 5 of each half and maybe close the game together. The rest of the night everyone is staggered.

You guys seem to have your mind made up about Horford though so there’s probably no point.

[youngcrev]

Really can't believe there is such angst about a simple lineup change of benching Horford.

If the Toronto Raptors can bench Ibaka who is making $20M+ per year because they don't want to start him with Gasol, the same logic applies to us and Horford.

Ibaka has played 27 mpg the last 3 years, and much of the last two he has come off the bench.

No reason at all Horford can't do the same as a 4 year older player with some nagging injuries. He shouldn't be playing 30+ mpg anyway.

Agreed with the sentiment, though there's a little more to it than you are implying.

Ibaka started every game he played his first full season he played with the Raptors, 51 of 74 last year, and 20 of 43 this year. It's also not like he signed that big contract and then they said, "OK, you're coming off the bench" the same year.

In addition to that, in the games that he came off the bench last year, he was only averaging 21.9 mpg and 22.9 this year.

I think it's the right move (and frankly, a pretty obvious one to make), but Horford and the rest of the organization also have to be on board with it, because things can get uglier here.

Things are already extremely ugly precisely because they haven't made this change yet. They've alienated their star player, the fans, and the star player's relationship with the fans.

By comparison alienating Horford is no big deal.

Likely a bigger reason is because the front office doesn't want to look stupid. Unfortunately they look more stupid continuing this failed experiment as opposed to making the obvious change.

As for the minutes, yes Horford should probably only play 20-25 mpg when Embiid is in. In the MANY games that Embiid will miss he should play 30-35 mpg. In the end it'll average out around 25-27 mpg just like Ibaka. Which should be perfectly fine at his age.

It's not like he's playing for an upcoming contract.

I disagree that alienating Horford is no big deal, particularly for a team that at times has seemed to be teetering on the edge of implosion. If the guy you brought in the be a leader/professional is causing a stink because you decided to bench him, it's yet another problem. Particularly because benching him isn't some panacea for all that's wrong with the team.

What happens if you do that and the road woes still continue?

Like I said, I think it's an obvious move to make from a strategic perspective, I just think you're take the other aspects at play a little too lightly as to why they wouldn't have made the move yet.

Based on Elton's interview he's good with Brett making changes (who knows if he was previously), Brett's just got to get Horford on board with it. And with Horford previously talking about how the fit hasn't been there, I'm not sure it would be all that difficult to convince him of it.

[mjkvol]

Really can't believe there is such angst about a simple lineup change of benching Horford.

If the Toronto Raptors can bench Ibaka who is making $20M+ per year because they don't want to start him with Gasol, the same logic applies to us and Horford.

Ibaka has played 27 mpg the last 3 years, and much of the last two he has come off the bench.

No reason at all Horford can't do the same as a 4 year older player with some nagging injuries. He shouldn't be playing 30+ mpg anyway.

Agreed with the sentiment, though there's a little more to it than you are implying.

Ibaka started every game he played his first full season he played with the Raptors, 51 of 74 last year, and 20 of 43 this year. It's also not like he signed that big contract and then they said, "OK, you're coming off the bench" the same year.

In addition to that, in the games that he came off the bench last year, he was only averaging 21.9 mpg and 22.9 this year.

I think it's the right move (and frankly, a pretty obvious one to make), but Horford and the rest of the organization also have to be on board with it, because things can get uglier here.

Things are already extremely ugly precisely because they haven't made this change yet. They've alienated their star player, the fans, and the star player's relationship with the fans.

By comparison alienating Horford is no big deal.

Likely a bigger reason is because the front office doesn't want to look stupid. Unfortunately they look more stupid continuing this failed experiment as opposed to making the obvious change.

As for the minutes, yes Horford should probably only play 20-25 mpg when Embiid is in. In the MANY games that Embiid will miss he should play 30-35 mpg. In the end it'll average out around 25-27 mpg just like Ibaka. Which should be perfectly fine at his age.

It's not like he's playing for an upcoming contract.

Don't agree at all with the idea of alienating Horford not being a big deal. You signed a consummate pro to come in as a starter and sold him on the whole 'bully ball' thing. It hasn't worked like you expected, so changes need to be made. You go to Horford before the whole thing blows up and discuss how moving him to the bench is not only positive for the team, but for Horford's fit here as well. That's how a real coach would have handled it, but Brown's way is to wait and have to answer questions about the fans' reaction, and what he's going to do about it.

I don't give a rat's a$$ about fans being alienated - they should never be a remote part in the equation of making personnel and strategy decisions. Once the media and fans are howling about something and you actually react to it, you're done. It becomes like sharks circling the prey. Same with Simmons' shooting.

Now Brown has put himself and the organization in a defensive position, having to explain to people who have no business knowing the inner workings of the team. And he will be forced to do this for the rest of the season regarding Horford, Simmons, and whatever other issues arise that he waits too long to address.

[mjkvol]

But isn't that just like coach Brown. Late to insert TJ into the Boston series. Late to coach Ben up as a shooter. Late to take the ball out of Simmons hands in the forth quarter. Late to figure out how to play against the zone. Late to coach up Embiid how to deal with a double team. Late to realize Hortford should be coming off the bench. Late to give Furkan the opportunities that he needs.
That's coach Brown a nice guy but as I said he always seems to be in reaction never proactive.

This is my main issue with Brown along with his tendency to fall in love with guys like Neto and TJ, and the diarrhea of the mouth with the media.

It seems as if he's always reacting, and usually well after it's clear a change or adjustment needs to he made. He's rarely proactive in addressing issues and adjusting before they become "a thing" with the media and fan base.

To me, a kiss of death to a coach or organization is when they make moves in reaction to fan pressure or media criticism, and it seems the Sixers have fallen into that trap. I don't want my coach or GM needing to explain or rationalize what they are doing through the media. You rarely if ever see well run organizations in any sport feeling the need to constantly justify or explain strategy or moves. The fact that it goes on here almost daily doesn't give me a lot of confidence that we have the people in place to win a championship.

I think that’s more of a Philly thing

One of if not the most critical fanbase in sports

All sports fans in the Northeast are hyper-critical, and it comes with the territory if you're going to coach or play here. But the successful coaches, like Belicheck for instance, never let fan or media opinion or sentiment become even the slightest part of what he does and decisions he makes. Once you do, these towns (Philly, NY, Boston) will eat you alive.

Unfortunately, Brown (and Brand) have put the Sixers in the position of feeling they need to rationalize and justify what they're doing. That rarely ends well.

[TTP]

If he refuses to 6th man Horford he can go

The obsession with benching Horford is weird

The starting 5 still has a net rating of +8

That’s one of the best in the league

He’s fine to start and stagger them like he already does. As long as the team gives consistent effort they’ll be a threat to any team.

Show this stat. I’ve seen stats showing us to have a negative net rating with Horford Simmons and Embiid on the floor at the same time.

NBA WOWY has us -1.2 with Horford, Simmons, and Embiid sharing the floor over a 423 minute sample, which is disgraceful. ORTG = 102.1 and DRTG = 103.3

For comparison:

Horford/Simmons without Embiid: +6.2 (114.8 ORTG, 108.6 DRTG) in 902 minutes
Embiid/Simmons without Horford: +5.1 (117.1 ORTG, 112.0 DRTG) in 335 minutes
Embiid/Horford without Simmons: -4.2 (101.0 ORTG, 105.2 DRTG) in 48 minutes


It's very clear that we shouldn't play the 3 together, and we should probably limit Horford and Embiid's time together as well (which Brett Brown is probably aware of given that he doesn't play the two together without Simmons).

[Arsenal]

The obsession with benching Horford is weird

The starting 5 still has a net rating of +8

That’s one of the best in the league

He’s fine to start and stagger them like he already does. As long as the team gives consistent effort they’ll be a threat to any team.

Show this stat. I’ve seen stats showing us to have a negative net rating with Horford Simmons and Embiid on the floor at the same time.

NBA WOWY has us -1.2 with Horford, Simmons, and Embiid sharing the floor over a 423 minute sample, which is disgraceful. ORTG = 102.1 and DRTG = 103.3

For comparison:

Horford/Simmons without Embiid: +6.2 (114.8 ORTG, 108.6 DRTG) in 902 minutes
Embiid/Simmons without Horford: +5.1 (117.1 ORTG, 112.0 DRTG) in 335 minutes
Embiid/Horford without Simmons: -4.2 (101.0 ORTG, 105.2 DRTG) in 48 minutes


It's very clear that we shouldn't play the 3 together, and we should probably limit Horford and Embiid's time together as well (which Brett Brown is probably aware of given that he doesn't play the two together without Simmons).

You'd think this team would have learned from the 3 Centers clusterfcuk with Embiid, Noel, and Okafor, but it appears they have to learn the same exact lesson all over again.

The only solution is Horford off the bench for 20-25 mpg, with very few mins while Embiid is in. Then he can get 30-35 mpg in the many games Embiid misses.

Hell, agree to trade him this summer if he wants. This is inevitably going to end in divorce anyway.

[TTP]

FWIW Mavericksfan is correct that the starting unit is +8.6 (109.2 ORTG, 100.6 DRTG) over 240 minutes, but you have to wonder how much better it would be with another wing in place of Horford.

Here are the net ratings of the starting lineups of some of the other top teams in the NBA per NBA WOWY:

Bucks: +19.9
Celtics: +14.8
Clippers: +9.5
Heat: +12.7
Jazz: +16.9
Lakers: +14.2
Nuggets: +13.2
Raptors: +12.0
Rockets: +7.3 (pre-Capela trade)

+8.6 from our starters sounds good but is clearly not good enough for the tier of teams we want to be competing with and Horford in the starting lineup is almost certainly what's holding us back.

It's also worth mentioning that our Simmons/Redick/Covington/Saric/Embiid lineup two years ago had far less star power and was the best starting unit in the league at +20.0. I think the only better 5 man unit that year was a mix of Raptors starters and bench. We should be expecting far better than what we have now after adding two huge contracts.

[youngcrev]

The obsession with benching Horford is weird

The starting 5 still has a net rating of +8

That’s one of the best in the league

He’s fine to start and stagger them like he already does. As long as the team gives consistent effort they’ll be a threat to any team.

Show this stat. I’ve seen stats showing us to have a negative net rating with Horford Simmons and Embiid on the floor at the same time.

NBA WOWY has us -1.2 with Horford, Simmons, and Embiid sharing the floor over a 423 minute sample, which is disgraceful. ORTG = 102.1 and DRTG = 103.3

For comparison:

Horford/Simmons without Embiid: +6.2 (114.8 ORTG, 108.6 DRTG) in 902 minutes
Embiid/Simmons without Horford: +5.1 (117.1 ORTG, 112.0 DRTG) in 335 minutes
Embiid/Horford without Simmons: -4.2 (101.0 ORTG, 105.2 DRTG) in 48 minutes


It's very clear that we shouldn't play the 3 together, and we should probably limit Horford and Embiid's time together as well (which Brett Brown is probably aware of given that he doesn't play the two together without Simmons).

Just scanning through net ratings of lineup trios with Embiid/Simmons on the floor and they're overwhelmingly positive.

In 17/18, every single combination with more than 5 minutes on the floor was positive.

In 18/19 the only negative combination was surprisingly with Shamet

This year there's 3 with Horford, Thybulle and Shake. And when you use NBAWowy to factor in taking Horford off the floor, both Thybulle and Shake are positives with Ben and Jo.

I'd say that's pretty damning.

[Mavericksfan]

The obsession with benching Horford is weird

The starting 5 still has a net rating of +8

That’s one of the best in the league

He’s fine to start and stagger them like he already does. As long as the team gives consistent effort they’ll be a threat to any team.

Show this stat. I’ve seen stats showing us to have a negative net rating with Horford Simmons and Embiid on the floor at the same time.

NBA WOWY has us -1.2 with Horford, Simmons, and Embiid sharing the floor over a 423 minute sample, which is disgraceful. ORTG = 102.1 and DRTG = 103.3

For comparison:

Horford/Simmons without Embiid: +6.2 (114.8 ORTG, 108.6 DRTG) in 902 minutes
Embiid/Simmons without Horford: +5.1 (117.1 ORTG, 112.0 DRTG) in 335 minutes
Embiid/Horford without Simmons: -4.2 (101.0 ORTG, 105.2 DRTG) in 48 minutes


It's very clear that we shouldn't play the 3 together, and we should probably limit Horford and Embiid's time together as well (which Brett Brown is probably aware of given that he doesn't play the two together without Simmons).

I dont get how 3 man data is more valuable than 5 man data.

Embiid/Horford/Simmons isnt a clean fit but works next to Tobi and Josh.

[TTP]

I think the terrible Sixer fanbase is the reason Embiid is making noise. He’s playing with one hand only to be met with boos.

Why are you so sure that’s “not enough”? Embiid has been coasting for the most part.

Besides who would you start in Horford’s place? The Matisse lineups havent been better. You could try Kork especially depending the matchup or one of the new guys. But there’s no guarantee the lineup will do better.

I’m not arguing that he definitely shouldnt bench Horford but I just want y’all to put more thought into then just pretending it’s the obvious answer.

It's not even close to good enough for the starting 5 to be +8.3 if we want to contend. For reference, our starting units the last 2 years:

2018-19 Embiid/Simmons/Harris/Butler/Redick: +19.4
2017-18 Embiid/Simmons/Saric/Covington/Redick: +20.5

Why are those your reference? The 2018 team wasnt contending. The Sixers previous starting lineups has great synergy and an Embiid giving 100% every night.

https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?CF=MIN*GE*240&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1

The starting lineup is 8th in net rating for lineups that have played as many minutes. It’s above any Clippers lineup as well (who I guess you dont consider a contender). I dont see it as a big deal because they only really play the first 5 of each half and maybe close the game together. The rest of the night everyone is staggered.

You guys seem to have your mind made up about Horford though so there’s probably no point.

The bolded is not only false but also disingenuous. The only reason the Clippers don't have a better lineup listed is because you tacked on the "in as many minutes" qualifier and Kawhi and PG have both missed many games. The Clippers without Kawhi and PG aren't a contender.

The Clippers starting lineup (before adding Marcus Morris) barely missed your qualifier with 214 minutes and have a better net rating than the Sixers with +9.5.

[TTP]

Show this stat. I’ve seen stats showing us to have a negative net rating with Horford Simmons and Embiid on the floor at the same time.

NBA WOWY has us -1.2 with Horford, Simmons, and Embiid sharing the floor over a 423 minute sample, which is disgraceful. ORTG = 102.1 and DRTG = 103.3

For comparison:

Horford/Simmons without Embiid: +6.2 (114.8 ORTG, 108.6 DRTG) in 902 minutes
Embiid/Simmons without Horford: +5.1 (117.1 ORTG, 112.0 DRTG) in 335 minutes
Embiid/Horford without Simmons: -4.2 (101.0 ORTG, 105.2 DRTG) in 48 minutes


It's very clear that we shouldn't play the 3 together, and we should probably limit Horford and Embiid's time together as well (which Brett Brown is probably aware of given that he doesn't play the two together without Simmons).

I dont get how 3 man data is more valuable than 5 man data.

Embiid/Horford/Simmons isnt a clean fit but works next to Tobi and Josh.

It's more valuable when trying to determine the weak link within 5 man units and where they can be improved. If we magically had 200+ minute samples of every 5 man unit permutation, we'd clearly use those to determine what the best lineups are or could be, but we don't have that option. We have larger sample sizes and more options for comparison with 3 man units.

What does your 5 man unit data even conclude? That the Sixers starting lineup is fine because they're 8th out of 22 lineups across the league that meet your minutes qualifier? A 64th percentile starting lineup is not particularly good for a team that is trying to contend.

The Sixers having only the 8th best unit is a disappointment considering our expectations. Heading into the season, we were expecting to be a Finals contender, and I'd imagine most Sixers fans are expecting us to be at least a top 5 team. Having the 8th best starting unit (really 9th because the Clippers weren't included) is not satisfactory and means something needs to be improved to meet our expectations.

[Mavericksfan]

NBA WOWY has us -1.2 with Horford, Simmons, and Embiid sharing the floor over a 423 minute sample, which is disgraceful. ORTG = 102.1 and DRTG = 103.3

For comparison:

Horford/Simmons without Embiid: +6.2 (114.8 ORTG, 108.6 DRTG) in 902 minutes
Embiid/Simmons without Horford: +5.1 (117.1 ORTG, 112.0 DRTG) in 335 minutes
Embiid/Horford without Simmons: -4.2 (101.0 ORTG, 105.2 DRTG) in 48 minutes


It's very clear that we shouldn't play the 3 together, and we should probably limit Horford and Embiid's time together as well (which Brett Brown is probably aware of given that he doesn't play the two together without Simmons).

I dont get how 3 man data is more valuable than 5 man data.

Embiid/Horford/Simmons isnt a clean fit but works next to Tobi and Josh.

It's more valuable when trying to determine the weak link within 5 man units and where they can be improved. If we magically had 200+ minute samples of every 5 man unit permutation, we'd clearly use those to determine what the best lineups are or could be, but we don't have that option. We have larger sample sizes and more options for comparison with 3 man units.

What does your 5 man unit data even conclude? That the Sixers starting lineup is fine because they're 8th out of 22 lineups across the league that meet your minutes qualifier? A 64th percentile starting lineup is not particularly good for a team that is trying to contend.

The Sixers having only the 8th best unit is a disappointment considering our expectations. Heading into the season, we were expecting to be a Finals contender, and I'd imagine most Sixers fans are expecting us to be at least a top 5 team. Having the 8th best starting unit (really 9th because the Clippers weren't included) is not satisfactory and means something needs to be improved to meet our expectations.

I actually wasnt aware of the Clippers. I used the Sixers minutes to determine the cut off

But 9th still isnt bad when you consider they stagger their lineups so much. You’re only really seeing all 3 the first half of the 1st and 3rd and the last 4 minutes of the 4th(sometimes).

The bonus of utilizing that lineup in those situations is the elite defense. You can help take opponents out of offensive rhythm to start halves and maintain leads to close out games.

I’m still not as big on 3 man data because it’s even more noisy than 5 man data. It takes an extremely large sample size to come away with meaningful data once you start moving away from 5 vs 5

[Mavericksfan]

Kork with the start

Hopefully he can keep up his recent play and Horford is more comfortable not playing with Embiid

[rzzzzz]

Kork with the start
Hopefully he can keep up his recent play and Horford is more comfortable not playing with Embiid

based on Jimmy's assessment last year, i hate to come to any conclusions about compatibility until we exhaust schemes that best take into account our particular roster, rather than chase after a preconceived ideal. JoJo and Ben are not like any other players, so i don't want to necessarily ape what worked well for GSW.

[Negrodamus]

https://www.nj.com/sports/2020/02/nba-rumors-latest-on-knicks-interest-in-villanovas-jay-wright.html

Wright’s name has been linked several times during the years to the NBA. And why not? He’s a two-time national champion with Villanova. However the New York Post reports that “the impression from people who know Wright is that the only job he’d leave Villanova for is the 76ers.”

Alright Brett, better make some noise in the playoffs.

[Hussien Fatal]

https://www.nj.com/sports/2020/02/nba-rumors-latest-on-knicks-interest-in-villanovas-jay-wright.html

Wright’s name has been linked several times during the years to the NBA. And why not? He’s a two-time national champion with Villanova. However the New York Post reports that “the impression from people who know Wright is that the only job he’d leave Villanova for is the 76ers.”

Alright Brett, better make some noise in the playoffs.

Jay Wright and JVG are the only two people I would fire Brett Brown for.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

This lineup switch IS going to work. We all knew it was coming, Brett stuck to his guns for a while to see if it would work, but it's plainly obvious that Horford needs to move to the bench in order to move forward. Obviously the signing was a puzzling one when we did it, I didn't necessarily like it, but we're stuck with him for now. So should we fire Brett Brown because Elton Brand signed Al Horford? I don't think so. Again, Brett tried like Hell to make this work, but it's not going to. Suddenly with Horford coming off the bench, we are a deeper team, we have legitimate center depth behind Embiid. That's not a bad thing at all. I expect it to help tremendously come playoff time. I don't really have too many complaints with Brown in general as a coach. I think he's doing a fine job, I think the plan for the most part is working. Elton Brand is learning how to be a GM on the spot and time will really tell if he made the right call signing Horford. We all know Embiid had stamina issues in the playoffs last year. If keeping it rich at center at all times was the plan, then i'm all for it. We'll see.