Jason Tatum: I'm going to average over 20, make the All Star team, and the Celtics are going to the finals

[jfs1000d]

Didn’t he say he was going to make the all star last season?

Sorry but this guy isn’t that special. He really slumped in the latter half and in the playoffs. Celtics should have moved him when his value peaked after 17-18.

#oldtakesexposed


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[jfs1000d]

How are you preemptively saying "this far" nobody expects the Celtics to get upset in the first round, so logically people are expecting the Celtics in at least the ECSF

Hint: use critical thinking and context from my post.

Spoiler:

what round would the 3 seed play the 1 seed in

assuming the Celtics do get the 3rd seed, which is optimistic considering the crowd.

I think Boston is clearly headed to the second seed. Toronto won 16 straight and only gained like 2 games. Boston is 38-16, 28games left. 20-8 gets them to 58 wins. I think 58 will be 2-seed. If they get hot and healthy, a 22-6 run isn’t out of question.

We’ll see how they are after the play Lakers out west. Got 4 west coast games post all star.

Minny, LAkers, Portland and Utah. 2-2 of course, but if they can get a 3-1 trip, they gonna be rolling when they get home.


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[themoneyteam2]

Hint: use critical thinking and context from my post.

Spoiler:

what round would the 3 seed play the 1 seed in

assuming the Celtics do get the 3rd seed, which is optimistic considering the crowd.

I think Boston is clearly headed to the second seed. Toronto won 16 straight and only gained like 2 games. Boston is 38-16, 28games left. 20-8 gets them to 58 wins. I think 58 will be 2-seed. If they get hot and healthy, a 22-6 run isn’t out of question.

We’ll see how they are after the play Lakers out west. Got 4 west coast games post all star.

Minny, LAkers, Portland and Utah. 2-2 of course, but if they can get a 3-1 trip, they gonna be rolling when they get home.


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Ehh SOS is harder for the Celtics remainder of the season. I think Toronto will end you with the 2 seed by a game or two.

[trending]

toronto winning 2nd easily. they still have yet to get gasol and powell in the lineup with everyone else. games like the last one where shots weren't falling gasol would've slowed the game.

[Driguez]

So Tatum is the new RealGM meta yeah?

[SK21209]

Its absolutely nuts that we saw this guy play great in the playoffs at age 19 and then questioned his ceiling when he didn't substantially improve on that in his second season at age 20. That kid is special, I think he's going to be right up there with Luka and Zion as the future faces of the league.

[robbie84]

Not meaning to derail the thread, but it's going to be a fun finish in the East given how important the seeding is going to be at the top. Raptors vs Celtics race to 2nd is going to see both teams play some really good road games.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Not meaning to derail the thread, but it's going to be a fun finish in the East given how important the seeding is going to be at the top. Raptors vs Celtics race to 2nd is going to see both teams play some really good road games.

The way the schedule is set up there's almost a guaranteed slump from the Raptors in mid to late March. From March 18 to April 5th they play @Philly, Boston, Denver, LAL, NYK, Memphis, Memphis, Bucks, Bucks, Rockets. The easy W is the Knicks game and that's the 2nd night of a back to back. I think the Celtics will end up in 2nd. I don't see the Raptors allowing themselves to fall to 4th.

[ropjhk]

Good on Tatum but getting to the finals will be the hardest one to do.

[trending]

Not meaning to derail the thread, but it's going to be a fun finish in the East given how important the seeding is going to be at the top. Raptors vs Celtics race to 2nd is going to see both teams play some really good road games.

The way the schedule is set up there's almost a guaranteed slump from the Raptors in mid to late March. From March 18 to April 5th they play @Philly, Boston, Denver, LAL, NYK, Memphis, Memphis, Bucks, Bucks, Rockets. The easy W is the Knicks game and that's the 2nd night of a back to back. I think the Celtics will end up in 2nd. I don't see the Raptors allowing themselves to fall to 4th.

with gasol back the philly and bucks games will be a toss up. the other games are home games.

[skones]

This is how you know you've lost an argument: dropping all pretense to actually addressing the topic and only trying to rile up the poster.

Or, ya know, you just realize the guy is talking in circles repeating the same thing over and over, going so far as to respond to a post, and then wait 30 minutes only to decide, WAIT IM NOT DONE HERE. You're free to go back and look at his tone after the Bucks beat the Celtics and note how that lack of experience that was going to do them over in the end is absent. And now here we are 9 months later and he's calling it a win for himself.

I did not say I agreed with his position. My point stands. When I see a post like the one of yours I bolded, I instantly lose any interest in what that poster has to say. Just wanted to let you know. You're obviously free to take the criticism or leave it.

See when I see a post like yours, one who doesn't want context and views posts in a vacuum, I'll leave it.

[skones]

Or, ya know, you just realize the guy is talking in circles repeating the same thing over and over, going so far as to respond to a post, and then wait 30 minutes only to decide, WAIT IM NOT DONE HERE. You're free to go back and look at his tone after the Bucks beat the Celtics and note how that lack of experience that was going to do them over in the end is absent. And now here we are 9 months later and he's calling it a win for himself.

I did not say I agreed with his position. My point stands. When I see a post like the one of yours I bolded, I instantly lose any interest in what that poster has to say. Just wanted to let you know. You're obviously free to take the criticism or leave it.

Done going back and forth with this guy but I have to admit it’s funny he calls me out for replying to something twice in a 30 min span yet he’s bringing up an argument from LAST APRIL that had nothing to do with the topic in a conversation he wasn’t apart of.

Carry on. Tatums a stud

Last reply to you as I don’t want this to get locked. But my prediction was right- I said you guys lacked experience and great regular season and srs ratings don’t mean you’ll get to the finals. You didn’t. You beat my Celtics - I was wrong there but the outcome was the same just a round later.

There was no parade last year for you. No banners. Nothing. Just like there wasn’t for us. The bucks beat down Boston but ultimately failed to a team who has been in the post season several times who had added a star who had won before.

READ THE THREAD. This isn't hard. It was you who dredged it up. So yeah, I'd agree that this is funny

[Johnny Bball]

Well at least he got the two ever important personal goals taken care of, guess that means the third has to come true

[SMTBSI]

Or, ya know, you just realize the guy is talking in circles repeating the same thing over and over, going so far as to respond to a post, and then wait 30 minutes only to decide, WAIT IM NOT DONE HERE. You're free to go back and look at his tone after the Bucks beat the Celtics and note how that lack of experience that was going to do them over in the end is absent. And now here we are 9 months later and he's calling it a win for himself.

I did not say I agreed with his position. My point stands. When I see a post like the one of yours I bolded, I instantly lose any interest in what that poster has to say. Just wanted to let you know. You're obviously free to take the criticism or leave it.

See when I see a post like yours, one who doesn't want context and views posts in a vacuum, I'll leave it.

I'm plenty familiar with the context. Even being on the right side of an argument is not a guarantee of victory, if you argue poorly. Something to consider.

[skones]

I did not say I agreed with his position. My point stands. When I see a post like the one of yours I bolded, I instantly lose any interest in what that poster has to say. Just wanted to let you know. You're obviously free to take the criticism or leave it.

See when I see a post like yours, one who doesn't want context and views posts in a vacuum, I'll leave it.

I'm plenty familiar with the context. Even being on the right side of an argument is not a guarantee of victory, if you argue poorly. Something to consider.

Sometimes it's just better to say nothing at all. Just because you put yourself on a pedestal doesn't mean others do. I don't post for "your interest" thus I don't care if you lose it. Something to consider.

[MagicBagley18]

48 hours later. Haha still talking. Tatums still a stud. Bucks still ain’t world champs. love it. Anyways if Tatum keeps playing defense like he has been he has to be getting close to consideration for all defense

[Jabroni Lames]

The best part of this thread re-surfacing after Tatum outplays Kawhi in the clutch, is that the OP is: ClipsFanSince2019. lol.

[SMTBSI]

See when I see a post like yours, one who doesn't want context and views posts in a vacuum, I'll leave it.

I'm plenty familiar with the context. Even being on the right side of an argument is not a guarantee of victory, if you argue poorly. Something to consider.

Sometimes it's just better to say nothing at all. Just because you put yourself on a pedestal doesn't mean others do. I don't post for "your interest" thus I don't care if you lose it. Something to consider.

If you'd taken your own advice, we wouldn't be having this conversation. It's pretty telling that you consider disliking posts like the one I originally called out as "putting myself on a pedestal". Seems more like an absolute bare minimum standard to me.

Obviously you do not post for "my interest", but in a social space like this, you can't be stunned when people react to what you do. Make bad posts, get called out. Feel free to ignore me if you really don't care.

[cl2117]

It's designed for the house to always make money by charging fees regardless of outcome and balancing the books. I work for an oddsmaker, we 100% set the odds based off of most likely outcome. Sportsbooks will take those odds and shade them accordingly based on betting patterns and amount of money they currently have on their books, but the swings aren't massive because it doesn't benefit them in the long-run. Initial lines are shaded the most and they'll get much tighter by the time we hit the start of the regular season.

So, no the lines are not 100% based on the most likely outcome, but the deviation will not be greater than 10% from what the consensus is (trap lines are a myth).

Hey I have a question for you- do you ever see particular types of bettors that seem to make money over the long haul?

Understanding that lines are set based on the actual contests themselves but then adjusted as you say, I feel like it's in those swings that serious bettors try to find an edge here and there? I think that's they mean by 'smart money', money that often comes in right as a line is set. I imagine you're only talking say 2 or maybe 3 points at the very most in a NFL game, nothing is going to be big of a swing.

The other type of serious betting I hear about is being an expert on a mid-major level NCAA league. The rationale is that the betting public isn't going to be as knowledgeable and is often going to bet known or sentimental favorites, and it might be easier to find good betting opportunities.

Over the long-haul virtually no bettors make money. They all pour it back in.

Those that are successful usually do specialize like what you're saying with mid-majors, however that's still incredibly volatile. You need an incredibly large bank to sustain the inevitable losses to be able to make money in the long run. Even when the odds are in your favor it's still gambling.

The best chance of "beating the odds" is on the initial lines, particularly season long bets that aren't tied to one player because the level of deviation drops out. The odds are adjusted fairly rapidly based on how the market reacts. It's all real-time 24/7 these days. We have offices that cover all time-zones so that there shouldn't be any gaps that can be taken advantage of (although inevitably there are).

For example the best bet I saw this year was on the number of penalties that were going to be given in the Premiership for 2020 in soccer. They've got new replay rules, which initially suggested that the number of penalties would skyrocket and they set the line at 109 total. Guys who were in the know pounced on it and by the end of the first day the line had moved to 106. A couple days later it was at 103. The season hadn't even started yet, but there was an acknowledgment that they likely over-corrected and as result they started dropping it. The line currently sits at 72 total I think, which shows just how far they were off initially. If you put a decent sized "lightning" bet on that you'd be walking away with pretty nice payday.

70% of bets take place in-game now and these are actually where the real money is for bookmakers these days. Those will have the tightest odds as every single game will be monitored live by someone in a service centre making sure that the odds are updated in real-time with minimal latency. It's hard to beat those.

The best sport to bet on is Tennis. It's one of the only ones where you can feasibly beat an odds update (if you're there in person). Additionally it's a "serve" sport, so you can bet on each individual point and in the long-run the better players win and you can realistically play the odds to your favor (if Djokovic drops the first two sets in an opening round the odds MUST adjust, but he's still likely to win overall).

It's possible to find good opportunities, but no matter what at the end of the day it's still gambling. Nothing is guaranteed. And if you do it often enough/long enough 99% chance you WILL end up in the red.

[chrisab123]

So Tatum is the NBAs answer to Mystic Mac?