Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory

[PrimeThyme]

Vuc 6,6 BPM was 10th highest in nba last year.

This year he is "just" 18th in nba.
16th is Trae Young
17th is Jayson Tatum
19th is Rudy Gobert.
20th is Ben Simmons
21th is Bam Adebayo.

So... he is only player from that list that wasn't allstar this year

Hate it or love it, since allstar game Vučević is phenomenal.
57% TS on 23 ppg, 11,5 rpg, 3,5 apg is as much as you can ask from center.

We aren't talking about Vuc's one outlier year. But just for reference, Jokic had a 9.1 BPM last year and a 7.0 Vorp. Jokic is a significantly more impactful and valuable player. It's not even debatable. So commenting "I can't see how people like Jockic but not Vuc" is just laughable to me.

[jezzerinho]

Statistically, Vooch is a very talented and productive player, whatever way you look at it. He just can't be counted on when needed.

[pepe1991]

Vuc 6,6 BPM was 10th highest in nba last year.

This year he is "just" 18th in nba.
16th is Trae Young
17th is Jayson Tatum
19th is Rudy Gobert.
20th is Ben Simmons
21th is Bam Adebayo.

So... he is only player from that list that wasn't allstar this year

Hate it or love it, since allstar game Vučević is phenomenal.
57% TS on 23 ppg, 11,5 rpg, 3,5 apg is as much as you can ask from center.

We aren't talking about Vuc's one outlier year. But just for reference, Jokic had a 9.1 BPM last year and a 7.0 Vorp. Jokic is a significantly more impactful and valuable player. It's not even debatable. So commenting "I can't see how people like Jockic but not Vuc" is just laughable to me.

Well Vuc ain't Jokic but their playing style is fairly similar.
Jokic, much like Vuc is streaky- mediocre 3 point shooter (32% this year )

Both are good passers , but Jokić is simply on another level at it.
That doesn't change fact Vuc still isn't top 5 as passing big because he is.
Jokić potential assists 10,8, Vuc 6,8 ( Sabonis, Adebayo and Towns are better than Vuc in that category).


Overall Jokić is simply better player, but if you hate Vučević for looking letargic or not being energetic enough , you would HATE Jokić way more. He is most chilled ,cooled guy you can find. I know Serbian fans after world cup were attacking him like crazy becuse he "played like he didn't care" where in reality, he always looks like he doesn't care.
I like him, liked him back here in Europe when he was walking fat-ball with most awkward post moves ever, but eye test and his stats almost never match because how unorthodox his playing style is.
Almost every game there will be at least 1 possession where you ask "what a feck he was thinking??"

[thelead]

Jokic is better and clutch.

[Bensational]

Jokic is a C but he puts the ball on the floor and is able to orchestrate both the offense and defense with that. He's a true playmaker in a C's body. That's a very different skillset to Vuc who's a classic post up big who can make passes out of the low and high post.

That's kind of the equivalent of comparing Kyle Korver to Ray Allen. Both great shooters, but one was much more capable overall.

Vuc has been great since the ASB though. He's back in playoff run mode and giving more effort in general. He's much more enjoyable to watch at this level. But if we get Toronto in the first round again, it won't be pretty for him again. And then we're back to the difference between Vuc and Jokic. In matchups against Gasol last year and this year, Jokic averages a triple double, whereas Vuc gets completely shut down. That's the gap between a great player and a good player.

[GelbeWand09]

Vuc and Evan were surrounded by below average teammates throughout their tenure here, for years people have been preaching about rim protection and its importance.

The same people who are complaining about them now were celebrating when we got Biz and Ibaka.

Thats right, but reality is, Evan was a below avg player in all his seasons here too. This season is his 1st were he is slightly above average. So nothing to celebrate here.
Vuc is a skilled Center. He will always put up numbers. Question is, if a system build around that type of player still works outside of the best passing C of all time in Jokic. His passing just breaks the system. Take a guy like AD or KAT & you have a 1st round exit team at best.

[Bensational]

90’s as in your highest usage player as a Center is the primary option offensively with a bottom 5 pace of play average. This wouldn’t be an issue if 3-4 other players on the floor are + shooting in the example of Denver or Dwight era Magic. You are focusing on the skill set and not the system with available personnel, which is where people usually fail to grasp this argument.

The original statement is that AG and JI would play together in the front court instead. Yes, that would be moving in a better direction as a redirect IMO, but it’s never going to happen until they somehow find alternatives on offense, which isn’t likely. The main point in this argument was to move on from AG because he doesn’t fit with WeHams agenda of playing 90’s basketball in a slow pace, grind it out, non floor spacing system.

I'm not really following your logic here. Why wouldn't AG fit with a C centric team in a model that doesn't value spacing and perimeter shooting? He fits that exactly, as is. What's the upgrade on him for a 90's-style PF/SF?

But then, is that really the identity of the team? Look at February, when Gordon and Vuc both played their strongest months. The team moved up to 19th in pace, but the two most used 5-man lineups for that month (Vuc, AG, Fournier, Fultz and Ross/Ennis) were the 3rd and 4th fastest lineups by pace amongst heavily used lineups in the league that month. Funnily enough, the Ennis lineup is a massive netrating negative whereas the Ross lineup is a strong netrtg positive. So faster pace doesn't always equal better.

Also, in regards to offense, Vuc isn't as critical for the team as you're making him out to be. Right now, in this current makeup, sure he is. But when he went down the rest of the team found ways to keep going. So there shouldn't be any fear of removing him and not having options to step up and replace him. We just don't have the confidence in who that player will be because none have been afforded consistent high USG to show they can do it. But, as I've pointed out a bunch of times before, we still were a near .500 team without Vuc.

The AG + Isaac fit really isn't a problem, especially if your expectations are for them to be defensive roleplayers who are more opportunistic on offense (along with Bamba at C, I'm guessing) and who prioritise facilitating the offense. That just means we need Fultz and the SG to be capable of carrying the offensive load. Fultz is still on the mend, but by next season he might be ready to try. Fournier would be a fine stopgap, but he doesn't look like he'll lead anyone to a championship.

[Driguez]

Jokic is better and clutch.

Well, yeah. He's a lot better.

[pepe1991]

Bucks allowed 47 points in first quater to Suns without Giannis.
That guy is as good as gone as soon as oportunity presents itself.

[pepe1991]

guy, game thread? Houston game?!

[VFX]

90’s as in your highest usage player as a Center is the primary option offensively with a bottom 5 pace of play average. This wouldn’t be an issue if 3-4 other players on the floor are + shooting in the example of Denver or Dwight era Magic. You are focusing on the skill set and not the system with available personnel, which is where people usually fail to grasp this argument.

The original statement is that AG and JI would play together in the front court instead. Yes, that would be moving in a better direction as a redirect IMO, but it’s never going to happen until they somehow find alternatives on offense, which isn’t likely. The main point in this argument was to move on from AG because he doesn’t fit with WeHams agenda of playing 90’s basketball in a slow pace, grind it out, non floor spacing system.

I'm not really following your logic here. Why wouldn't AG fit with a C centric team in a model that doesn't value spacing and perimeter shooting? He fits that exactly, as is. What's the upgrade on him for a 90's-style PF/SF?

But then, is that really the identity of the team? Look at February, when Gordon and Vuc both played their strongest months. The team moved up to 19th in pace, but the two most used 5-man lineups for that month (Vuc, AG, Fournier, Fultz and Ross/Ennis) were the 3rd and 4th fastest lineups by pace amongst heavily used lineups in the league that month. Funnily enough, the Ennis lineup is a massive netrating negative whereas the Ross lineup is a strong netrtg positive. So faster pace doesn't always equal better.

Also, in regards to offense, Vuc isn't as critical for the team as you're making him out to be. Right now, in this current makeup, sure he is. But when he went down the rest of the team found ways to keep going. So there shouldn't be any fear of removing him and not having options to step up and replace him. We just don't have the confidence in who that player will be because none have been afforded consistent high USG to show they can do it. But, as I've pointed out a bunch of times before, we still were a near .500 team without Vuc.

The AG + Isaac fit really isn't a problem, especially if your expectations are for them to be defensive roleplayers who are more opportunistic on offense (along with Bamba at C, I'm guessing) and who prioritise facilitating the offense. That just means we need Fultz and the SG to be capable of carrying the offensive load. Fultz is still on the mend, but by next season he might be ready to try. Fournier would be a fine stopgap, but he doesn't look like he'll lead anyone to a championship.

Where to start with this, especially after tonight’s game where moving the ball helped us a ton.

I would much rather Orlando play smaller and faster like tonight if it meant a lineup of Fultz/SG/Fournier/AG/Isaac was possible and more effective. Having either a Fournier replacement or a more capable scorer next to Isaac would benefit Orlando greatly.

You are citing information on AG without Isaac since January 1st. I would be all aboard if this information wasn’t obviously a direct correlation. Vuc is likely here for 2 more years and Isaac is a cornerstone piece moving forward. Neither are coming off the bench.

It’s going to be interesting when Isaac comes back because we know Clifford prioritizes defense. He will also play grit and grind slow when possible. I’m hoping they can add the pieces offensively to justify having 3-4/5 guys starting that usually aren’t producing from outside consistently.

[Bensational]

Spoiler:

90’s as in your highest usage player as a Center is the primary option offensively with a bottom 5 pace of play average. This wouldn’t be an issue if 3-4 other players on the floor are + shooting in the example of Denver or Dwight era Magic. You are focusing on the skill set and not the system with available personnel, which is where people usually fail to grasp this argument.

The original statement is that AG and JI would play together in the front court instead. Yes, that would be moving in a better direction as a redirect IMO, but it’s never going to happen until they somehow find alternatives on offense, which isn’t likely. The main point in this argument was to move on from AG because he doesn’t fit with WeHams agenda of playing 90’s basketball in a slow pace, grind it out, non floor spacing system.

I'm not really following your logic here. Why wouldn't AG fit with a C centric team in a model that doesn't value spacing and perimeter shooting? He fits that exactly, as is. What's the upgrade on him for a 90's-style PF/SF?

But then, is that really the identity of the team? Look at February, when Gordon and Vuc both played their strongest months. The team moved up to 19th in pace, but the two most used 5-man lineups for that month (Vuc, AG, Fournier, Fultz and Ross/Ennis) were the 3rd and 4th fastest lineups by pace amongst heavily used lineups in the league that month. Funnily enough, the Ennis lineup is a massive netrating negative whereas the Ross lineup is a strong netrtg positive. So faster pace doesn't always equal better.

Also, in regards to offense, Vuc isn't as critical for the team as you're making him out to be. Right now, in this current makeup, sure he is. But when he went down the rest of the team found ways to keep going. So there shouldn't be any fear of removing him and not having options to step up and replace him. We just don't have the confidence in who that player will be because none have been afforded consistent high USG to show they can do it. But, as I've pointed out a bunch of times before, we still were a near .500 team without Vuc.

The AG + Isaac fit really isn't a problem, especially if your expectations are for them to be defensive roleplayers who are more opportunistic on offense (along with Bamba at C, I'm guessing) and who prioritise facilitating the offense. That just means we need Fultz and the SG to be capable of carrying the offensive load. Fultz is still on the mend, but by next season he might be ready to try. Fournier would be a fine stopgap, but he doesn't look like he'll lead anyone to a championship.

Where to start with this, especially after tonight’s game where moving the ball helped us a ton.

I would much rather Orlando play smaller and faster like tonight if it meant a lineup of Fultz/SG/Fournier/AG/Isaac was possible and more effective. Having either a Fournier replacement or a more capable scorer next to Isaac would benefit Orlando greatly.

You are citing information on AG without Isaac since January 1st. I would be all aboard if this information wasn’t obviously a direct correlation. Vuc is likely here for 2 more years and Isaac is a cornerstone piece moving forward. Neither are coming off the bench.

It’s going to be interesting when Isaac comes back because we know Clifford prioritizes defense. He will also play grit and grind slow when possible. I’m hoping they can add the pieces offensively to justify having 3-4/5 guys starting that usually aren’t producing from outside consistently.

But we didn't play smaller tonight, though? We still had Vuc and AG in the forward spots. Our pace came from being able to dominate the glass and push the ball up court before their smaller defenders could settle into position, and then we looked to quickly dominate mismatches between Vuc and Gordon.

Swapping Isaac for Ennis/Iwundu wouldn't have effected pace. It's not like Isaac is a slow, half court player. And for the season he's shooting the 3 better than Ennis has been for us. So he should be an easy swap out. Come playoff time, Cliff will likely just have Isaac playing a role on offense the way Ennis and Iwundu have been. Spotting up in the corner/on the elbow, cutting, fast curls and handoffs early in the play and transition buckets. Defensively, both Isaac and AG can cover either forward spot at a high level.

You know I've been all over wanting to move on from Vuc all season, but there is interesting potential in having him and Gordon be two front court facilitating offensive options that feed off of creating different post up mismatches every other possession. It's looking to be great for disrupting defenses, and I'd like to see it with Isaac out there, as well.

[pepe1991]

Magic won last night mostly because of bench difference and pounding opponents on a glass.
Houston bench : 32 points, 4 assists
Orlando bench : 61 points, 8 assists

Magic 49 rebounds, Houston 38 .


Game against T wolves, similar scenario:
MCW, ROss and DJ combined for 51 points on 17-27 FG ( including 4-8 for 3 )
Once again Magic won rebounding battle 45 to 36.

This is why whole Evan hot takes don't hold up. Magic trio from bench is not affected by him playing or not playing at all. Case and point Magic beat same T wolves with Evan, because of DJ and Ross combining for 45 points just 10 days ago.

In game against Hawks, where Evan also played, once again Magic bench outscored opponents bench by 11 points.

Our better performances also come in times when he face really small teams with pretty crappy benches ( Houston is 3rd worst bench in nba when Gordon plays, he didn't even suit up tonight, Hawks are 9th worst bench, Minessota bench has 6th worst net rating since allstar break....

All that in times when Ross and DJ are heating up and Vuc is playing much better.
Ofc some of it is co-related, them playing better as opponents are worst but regardless, we have been solid team mostly because opponents don't have answers for our size and bench.

Ross is averaging almost 24 ppg off bench on 70% TS.
In last 11 games we won 7 and should have been 8 if refs actually did call foul on Evan against Spurs. ( that was confirmed as mistake by NBA itself)

[Xatticus]

Magic won last night mostly because of bench difference and pounding opponents on a glass.
Houston bench : 32 points, 4 assists
Orlando bench : 61 points, 8 assists

Magic 49 rebounds, Houston 38 .


Game against T wolves, similar scenario:
MCW, ROss and DJ combined for 51 points on 17-27 FG ( including 4-8 for 3 )
Once again Magic won rebounding battle 45 to 36.

This is why whole Evan hot takes don't hold up. Magic trio from bench is not affected by him playing or not playing at all. Case and point Magic beat same T wolves with Evan, because of DJ and Ross combining for 45 points just 10 days ago.

In game against Hawks, where Evan also played, once again Magic bench outscored opponents bench by 11 points.

Our better performances also come in times when he face really small teams with pretty crappy benches ( Houston is 3rd worst bench in nba when Gordon plays, he didn't even suit up tonight, Hawks are 9th worst bench, Minessota bench has 6th worst net rating since allstar break....

All that in times when Ross and DJ are heating up and Vuc is playing much better.
Ofc some of it is co-related, them playing better as opponents are worst but regardless, we have been solid team mostly because opponents don't have answers for our size and bench.

Ross is averaging almost 24 ppg off bench on 70% TS.
In last 11 games we won 7 and should have been 8 if refs actually did call foul on Evan against Spurs. ( that was confirmed as mistake by NBA itself)

Our bench played well enough, but we didn't win the game because of Houston's bench. Just look at the plus/minus numbers. Austin Rivers was +1 in 28 minutes while Russell Westbrook was -29 in 30 minutes.

[drsd]

Moved this to be op-topic:

In three games without Evan Fournier...

Markelle Fultz is averaging 21.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 6.7 APG and shooting 62.2% from the floor.

The Magic are 3-0.

It's crystal clear what needs to happen.

i) Orlando is not a better team with Iwundu starting over Fournier.

ii) Orlando will need to target the SG slot (with Fournier's salary and Gordon's contract) to take the next step up (from mediocre to OK-good'ish).

If Fournier opt-in, then this is Fournier plus Gordon for an upgrade. And Beal is exactly a player that would fit under said scenario.


..

[pepe1991]

Magic won last night mostly because of bench difference and pounding opponents on a glass.
Houston bench : 32 points, 4 assists
Orlando bench : 61 points, 8 assists

Magic 49 rebounds, Houston 38 .


Game against T wolves, similar scenario:
MCW, ROss and DJ combined for 51 points on 17-27 FG ( including 4-8 for 3 )
Once again Magic won rebounding battle 45 to 36.

This is why whole Evan hot takes don't hold up. Magic trio from bench is not affected by him playing or not playing at all. Case and point Magic beat same T wolves with Evan, because of DJ and Ross combining for 45 points just 10 days ago.

In game against Hawks, where Evan also played, once again Magic bench outscored opponents bench by 11 points.

Our better performances also come in times when he face really small teams with pretty crappy benches ( Houston is 3rd worst bench in nba when Gordon plays, he didn't even suit up tonight, Hawks are 9th worst bench, Minessota bench has 6th worst net rating since allstar break....

All that in times when Ross and DJ are heating up and Vuc is playing much better.
Ofc some of it is co-related, them playing better as opponents are worst but regardless, we have been solid team mostly because opponents don't have answers for our size and bench.

Ross is averaging almost 24 ppg off bench on 70% TS.
In last 11 games we won 7 and should have been 8 if refs actually did call foul on Evan against Spurs. ( that was confirmed as mistake by NBA itself)

Our bench played well enough, but we didn't win the game because of Houston's bench. Just look at the plus/minus numbers. Austin Rivers was +1 in 28 minutes while Russell Westbrook was -29 in 30 minutes.

MCW +18
Augustin +14
Ross +12

Vuc and Gordon played with them the most, therfore Gordon +21, Vuc +14

Iwundu, Fultz and Ennis did not, therfore Iwundu +8 , Ennis +4, Fultz -1


Rockets try to keep at least one Westbrook and Harden in all the time, and since Gordon is out, they pretty much played 7 and half men rotation . Rivers and Green only played off bench in first half i belive? Sefalosha +8 was in garbage time, he only played 4th quater, if i'm not mistaking, Carroll and Coboclo did not play first half.

[Xatticus]

Magic won last night mostly because of bench difference and pounding opponents on a glass.
Houston bench : 32 points, 4 assists
Orlando bench : 61 points, 8 assists

Magic 49 rebounds, Houston 38 .


Game against T wolves, similar scenario:
MCW, ROss and DJ combined for 51 points on 17-27 FG ( including 4-8 for 3 )
Once again Magic won rebounding battle 45 to 36.

This is why whole Evan hot takes don't hold up. Magic trio from bench is not affected by him playing or not playing at all. Case and point Magic beat same T wolves with Evan, because of DJ and Ross combining for 45 points just 10 days ago.

In game against Hawks, where Evan also played, once again Magic bench outscored opponents bench by 11 points.

Our better performances also come in times when he face really small teams with pretty crappy benches ( Houston is 3rd worst bench in nba when Gordon plays, he didn't even suit up tonight, Hawks are 9th worst bench, Minessota bench has 6th worst net rating since allstar break....

All that in times when Ross and DJ are heating up and Vuc is playing much better.
Ofc some of it is co-related, them playing better as opponents are worst but regardless, we have been solid team mostly because opponents don't have answers for our size and bench.

Ross is averaging almost 24 ppg off bench on 70% TS.
In last 11 games we won 7 and should have been 8 if refs actually did call foul on Evan against Spurs. ( that was confirmed as mistake by NBA itself)

Our bench played well enough, but we didn't win the game because of Houston's bench. Just look at the plus/minus numbers. Austin Rivers was +1 in 28 minutes while Russell Westbrook was -29 in 30 minutes.

MCW +18
Augustin +14
Ross +12

Vuc and Gordon played with them the most, therfore Gordon +21, Vuc +14

Iwundu, Fultz and Ennis did not, therfore Iwundu +8 , Ennis +4, Fultz -1


Rockets try to keep at least one Westbrook and Harden in all the time, and since Gordon is out, they pretty much played 7 and half men rotation . Rivers and Green only played off bench in first half i belive? Sefalosha +8 was in garbage time, he only played 4th quater, if i'm not mistaking, Carroll and Coboclo did not play first half.

We won by 20.

Westbrook -29
Harden -15
Tucker -24
Covington -21

It's fine to say that our bench played well, but it's more than a little misleading to say that we won the game because Houston's bench sucks.

Just as it is misleading to insinuate that the win over the Lakers was diminished because they didn't have Davis for that game. The Lakers are 6-1 against everyone except Orlando when Davis is out this year.

There are ALWAYS excuses available for those that wish to use them. We've lost plenty of games this year when we have had favorable conditions. Milwaukee thumped us without Giannis, for example.

[basketballRob]

The last 3 games against Houston, Harden averaged 43 pts and had one triple double, mostly with Evan guarding him.

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[basketballRob]

My guess is they'll stop having people attend games this week. It may not be up to the NBA to decide. Cities will begin to prohibit social gatherings.

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[OrlandoNed]

My guess is they'll stop having people attend games this week. It may not be up to the NBA to decide. Cities will begin to prohibit social gatherings.

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These Corona hysterics are getting a little ridiculous. I get erring on the side of caution, but this situation feels like it's getting blown way out of proportion. This is not the Black Plague we are dealing with.