Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory

[EAS Law]

Is it really 15-35x (that’s a big range) more than the flu?? That’s crazy. Although I’m sure on a much smaller total volume.

I think it comes down to what you said, not so much containment for the sake of yourself but for pregnant women, cancer patients, immunocompromised anyone basically.

We just don't know because we lack the data. China has reported somewhere in the neighborhood of 2%, while the flu is around 0.1%. The WHO reported a few days ago that the global mortality rate was at 3.4%. The Spanish flu was estimated at somewhere between 2-3% and it killed somewhere between 15-50 million people.

I don't want you to think that some of us are denying the existence of Corona or doubting it's abnormalcy. I'm just not crazy about having society grind to a screeching halt in a hysterical panic over something that's not close to being 100% understood or may not be reported accurately.

Every medical professional I’ve spoken to on this issue agrees that this whole thing is being dramatically blown out of proportion and causing shortages of medical supplies as well as unnecessary traffic in hospitals, thus leading to difficulties treating actual emergencies or medical needs.

It’s basically a new strain of the flu. Statistics are being thrown around as though they mean something when we are still talking 1%-2% of entire global sample sizes. Of course those numbers will look bad. On top of that, this strain may be more fatal than the common influenza virus generally, or specifically to those that are immunocompromised, but that does not in itself make it some existential threat to humanity.

The fact that this has become so political and he effect it has had on the otherwise very strong economy as well indicates to me that the sensationalization is intentional and politically-motivated.

[magicman112]

We just don't know because we lack the data. China has reported somewhere in the neighborhood of 2%, while the flu is around 0.1%. The WHO reported a few days ago that the global mortality rate was at 3.4%. The Spanish flu was estimated at somewhere between 2-3% and it killed somewhere between 15-50 million people.

I don't want you to think that some of us are denying the existence of Corona or doubting it's abnormalcy. I'm just not crazy about having society grind to a screeching halt in a hysterical panic over something that's not close to being 100% understood or may not be reported accurately.

Every medical professional I’ve spoken to on this issue agrees that this whole thing is being dramatically blown out of proportion and causing shortages of medical supplies as well as unnecessary traffic in hospitals, thus leading to difficulties treating actual emergencies or medical needs.

It’s basically a new strain of the flu. Statistics are being thrown around as though they mean something when we are still talking 1%-2% of entire global sample sizes. Of course those numbers will look bad. On top of that, this strain may be more fatal than the common influenza virus generally, or specifically to those that are immunocompromised, but that does not in itself make it some existential threat to humanity.

The fact that this has become so political and he effect it has had on the otherwise very strong economy as well indicates to me that the sensationalization is intentional and politically-motivated.

Every election year for the past several years there's been some kind of thing like this. Whether it's SARS, or Ebola, or Zika

[basketballRob]

It's much more infectious than the flu and many times more deadly. It killed 7 people in a retirement home within days and infected like 800 people on a cruise ship. Right now the world health organization says it has a mortality rate 34 times higher than the flu. It's r-naught is 2.28 compared to the flu 1.16. Meaning each person with coronavirus infects an average of 2.28 people.

One of our state representatives, Matt Gaetz is self quarantining himself after one of his constituents died from the virus

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[EAS Law]

It's much more infectious than the flu and many times more deadly. It killed 7 people in a retirement home within days and infected like 800 people on a cruise ship. Right now the world health organization says it has a mortality rate 34 times higher than the flu. It's r-naught is 2.28 compared to the flu 1.16. Meaning each person with coronavirus infects an average of 2.28 people.

One of our state representatives, Matt Gaetz is self quarantining himself after one of his constituents died from the virus

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

And measles has an R0 of 12-18 while tuberculosis is at about 10. These two diseases are not causing widespread panic and market crashes.

This disease may be more infectious and that’s fine, but until it starts killing people with otherwise healthy immune systems or who are not already susceptible to death by similar viruses en masse, it does not warrant the reaction it’s getting. Again, I’m drawing these conclusions after getting input from doctors. I’m not an MD, but this makes sense to me as explained.

[basketballRob]

It's much more infectious than the flu and many times more deadly. It killed 7 people in a retirement home within days and infected like 800 people on a cruise ship. Right now the world health organization says it has a mortality rate 34 times higher than the flu. It's r-naught is 2.28 compared to the flu 1.16. Meaning each person with coronavirus infects an average of 2.28 people.

One of our state representatives, Matt Gaetz is self quarantining himself after one of his constituents died from the virus

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

And measles has an R0 of 12-18 while tuberculosis is at about 10. These two diseases are not causing widespread panic and market crashes.

This disease may be more infectious and that’s fine, but until it starts killing people with otherwise healthy immune systems or who are not already susceptible to death by similar viruses en masse, it does not warrant the reaction it’s getting. Again, I’m drawing these conclusions after getting input from doctors. I’m not an MD, but this makes sense to me as explained.

The more it's spreads it could mutate. The doctor in China who was the whistleblower, died at 34 from the virus. We have no vaccine or treatment which is why it's more dangerous than the measles or TB.

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[basketballRob]

Wow, the whole Florida legislature is quarantining themselves. Gaetz was also on air force one, so my guess is the president will have to quarantine himself.

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[jezzerinho]

It's much more infectious than the flu and many times more deadly. It killed 7 people in a retirement home within days and infected like 800 people on a cruise ship. Right now the world health organization says it has a mortality rate 34 times higher than the flu. It's r-naught is 2.28 compared to the flu 1.16. Meaning each person with coronavirus infects an average of 2.28 people.

One of our state representatives, Matt Gaetz is self quarantining himself after one of his constituents died from the virus

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

And measles has an R0 of 12-18 while tuberculosis is at about 10. These two diseases are not causing widespread panic and market crashes.

This disease may be more infectious and that’s fine, but until it starts killing people with otherwise healthy immune systems or who are not already susceptible to death by similar viruses en masse, it does not warrant the reaction it’s getting. Again, I’m drawing these conclusions after getting input from doctors. I’m not an MD, but this makes sense to me as explained.

It might not warrant the concern for you, but I'm sure the hundreds of millions of people over 55, who are more susceptible, would disagree. Or are they somehow less valuable citizens?

[basketballRob]

It's much more infectious than the flu and many times more deadly. It killed 7 people in a retirement home within days and infected like 800 people on a cruise ship. Right now the world health organization says it has a mortality rate 34 times higher than the flu. It's r-naught is 2.28 compared to the flu 1.16. Meaning each person with coronavirus infects an average of 2.28 people.

One of our state representatives, Matt Gaetz is self quarantining himself after one of his constituents died from the virus

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

And measles has an R0 of 12-18 while tuberculosis is at about 10. These two diseases are not causing widespread panic and market crashes.

This disease may be more infectious and that’s fine, but until it starts killing people with otherwise healthy immune systems or who are not already susceptible to death by similar viruses en masse, it does not warrant the reaction it’s getting. Again, I’m drawing these conclusions after getting input from doctors. I’m not an MD, but this makes sense to me as explained.

It might not warrant the concern for you, but I'm sure the hundreds of millions of people over 55, who are more susceptible, would disagree. Or are they somehow less valuable citizens?

Plus it might infect some of our lawmakers after many people at CPAC could be infected.

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[pepe1991]

It's much more infectious than the flu and many times more deadly. It killed 7 people in a retirement home within days and infected like 800 people on a cruise ship. Right now the world health organization says it has a mortality rate 34 times higher than the flu. It's r-naught is 2.28 compared to the flu 1.16. Meaning each person with coronavirus infects an average of 2.28 people.

One of our state representatives, Matt Gaetz is self quarantining himself after one of his constituents died from the virus

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

And measles has an R0 of 12-18 while tuberculosis is at about 10. These two diseases are not causing widespread panic and market crashes.

This disease may be more infectious and that’s fine, but until it starts killing people with otherwise healthy immune systems or who are not already susceptible to death by similar viruses en masse, it does not warrant the reaction it’s getting. Again, I’m drawing these conclusions after getting input from doctors. I’m not an MD, but this makes sense to me as explained.

It might not warrant the concern for you, but I'm sure the hundreds of millions of people over 55, who are more susceptible, would disagree. Or are they somehow less valuable citizens?

Working for funeral company i have been in contact with families of people who died in their freaking 106th year and babies. It sucks.
That being said it's super easy to follow pattern of deaths ( once you have paper work in front of you with date, age and autopsy results) that people after they pass their 50s are simply super prone to die over night, without any red flags. It's crazy how many people die from heart attacks without previous heart issues. It's also crazy how fast people go from feeling bad to being dead withing a week, finding out later they had stage 4 cancer or something like that.

I can't count how many times i heard same old " until that she or he was fine,taken to hosiptal he/she died within a week" . And that's scary part but that's simply reality.

There is no doubt that coronavirus is way more dangerous to old folks, but you simply have to understand that every single illness, alergy, condition, new found- bacterium or virus is way more dangerous to old folks.

We are same humans who 500 years only "lasted" for 40 years or so. That was average lifespan. Between 30 and 40 years.

[basketballRob]

Collins shook hands with the president yesterday so if his test comes back positive the president will have to quarantine himself.

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[pepe1991]

As a team the Magic went from pre-All Star break percentages of 43.4 percent from the field (29th), 33.7 percent from three (27th), a 49.4 effective field goal percentage (29th), and 53.1 true shooting (29th). After the break? The Magic are shooting 48.7 percent from the field (4th), 35.6 percent from three (17th), a 55.3 effective field goal percentage (7th), and 58.6 true shooting (8th).

At the epicenter of that is Terrence Ross, who is taking and making more threes post-break. Ross struggled to find daylight for much of the first half of the season, and even his open threes were’t going down on a consistent basis. Before the break he shot 38.7 percent from the field, including 32.2 percent on 6.9 threes per, both of which were career-lows. Since the break, Ross is making nearly half of all field goal attempts (49.6 percent), and hitting 51.3 percent of his 8.3 three-point attempts per game.

The playmaking of Aaron Gordon has been a huge factor in the Magic’s offensive jump. Despite a drop in usage from 20.7% before the break to 18.6% after, Gordon’s assist percentage has jumped from 19.8% before the break (3.1 assists per) to 27.8% after the break (6.5 assists per). His field goal percentage has also increased from 42.4% pre-break to 48.5% post, as he has attacked more, increasing his points in the paint from 7.0 pre-break to 9.8 post, and slightly reduced his three-point attempts (31.7% of all field goals pre-break, 28.2% post).

The Magic have returned more to an inside-out style of play, with Nikola Vucevic reducing the number of threes he takes per game. His percentage of three-point field goal attempts has dropped from 29.4% pre-break to 18.3% post. That has helped Vucevic’s boost his field goal percentage from 45.8% pre-break to 51.2% post; his points per game from 19.0 points per pre-break to 22.1 post; and his points in the paint from 7.0 pre-break to 9.8 post.

With D.J. Augustin out, and with his struggles upon returning, Michael Carter-Williams carved out a niche on this Magic team, providing a spark at both ends with his ability to create turnovers and navigate the pick-and-roll on the defensive end, and push the pace and get to the rim offensively. He has also seen an increase in his post-All-Star break percentages, jumping from 41.2% from the field and 26.1% from three to 46.4% and 32.4%. Augustin has regained his rhythm over the Magic’s last two games, capped by a 24-point performance against the Rockets on 7 of 10 shooting.

[EAS Law]

It's much more infectious than the flu and many times more deadly. It killed 7 people in a retirement home within days and infected like 800 people on a cruise ship. Right now the world health organization says it has a mortality rate 34 times higher than the flu. It's r-naught is 2.28 compared to the flu 1.16. Meaning each person with coronavirus infects an average of 2.28 people.

One of our state representatives, Matt Gaetz is self quarantining himself after one of his constituents died from the virus

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

And measles has an R0 of 12-18 while tuberculosis is at about 10. These two diseases are not causing widespread panic and market crashes.

This disease may be more infectious and that’s fine, but until it starts killing people with otherwise healthy immune systems or who are not already susceptible to death by similar viruses en masse, it does not warrant the reaction it’s getting. Again, I’m drawing these conclusions after getting input from doctors. I’m not an MD, but this makes sense to me as explained.

It might not warrant the concern for you, but I'm sure the hundreds of millions of people over 55, who are more susceptible, would disagree. Or are they somehow less valuable citizens?

Way to move the goal posts.

I’ll avoid your blatant attempt to start a fight based on some virtue signal, but the concern for me is based on my status as a normal human being without any special medical condition that makes me especially susceptible to death due to Covid-19. By all means, those that are especially at risk should treat the situation appropriately, but that term is going to be different for everyone.

[Bensational]

And measles has an R0 of 12-18 while tuberculosis is at about 10. These two diseases are not causing widespread panic and market crashes.

This disease may be more infectious and that’s fine, but until it starts killing people with otherwise healthy immune systems or who are not already susceptible to death by similar viruses en masse, it does not warrant the reaction it’s getting. Again, I’m drawing these conclusions after getting input from doctors. I’m not an MD, but this makes sense to me as explained.

It might not warrant the concern for you, but I'm sure the hundreds of millions of people over 55, who are more susceptible, would disagree. Or are they somehow less valuable citizens?

Working for funeral company i have been in contact with families of people who died in their freaking 106th year and babies. It sucks.
That being said it's super easy to follow pattern of deaths ( once you have paper work in front of you with date, age and autopsy results) that people after they pass their 50s are simply super prone to die over night, without any red flags. It's crazy how many people die from heart attacks without previous heart issues. It's also crazy how fast people go from feeling bad to being dead withing a week, finding out later they had stage 4 cancer or something like that.

I can't count how many times i heard same old " until that she or he was fine,taken to hosiptal he/she died within a week" . And that's scary part but that's simply reality.

There is no doubt that coronavirus is way more dangerous to old folks, but you simply have to understand that every single illness, alergy, condition, new found- bacterium or virus is way more dangerous to old folks.

We are same humans who 500 years only "lasted" for 40 years or so. That was average lifespan. Between 30 and 40 years.

This is how I see things. It sounds callous, but I have parents who are in that at risk range and the only reason my mother is alive is because of modern medicine, so she is already living on borrowed time as far as nature is concerned.

That said, I don't see why society needs to come to a screeching halt because she could be at risk, and I would expand that to include anyone who is at risk. The at risk can and should quarantine themselves or limit being in large and busy social gatherings, but why does everyone else need to do the same? And if we limited how many people felt the need to be so concerned about the virus, then we free up more medical resources for those people instead of treating hysterical yet healthy people with a runny nose.

[jezzerinho]

And measles has an R0 of 12-18 while tuberculosis is at about 10. These two diseases are not causing widespread panic and market crashes.

This disease may be more infectious and that’s fine, but until it starts killing people with otherwise healthy immune systems or who are not already susceptible to death by similar viruses en masse, it does not warrant the reaction it’s getting. Again, I’m drawing these conclusions after getting input from doctors. I’m not an MD, but this makes sense to me as explained.

It might not warrant the concern for you, but I'm sure the hundreds of millions of people over 55, who are more susceptible, would disagree. Or are they somehow less valuable citizens?

Way to move the goal posts.

I’ll avoid your blatant attempt to start a fight based on some virtue signal, but the concern for me is based on my status as a normal human being without any special medical condition that makes me especially susceptible to death due to Covid-19. By all means, those that are especially at risk should treat the situation appropriately, but that term is going to be different for everyone.

What? Go back and read what you wrote.

[EAS Law]

It might not warrant the concern for you, but I'm sure the hundreds of millions of people over 55, who are more susceptible, would disagree. Or are they somehow less valuable citizens?

Way to move the goal posts.

I’ll avoid your blatant attempt to start a fight based on some virtue signal, but the concern for me is based on my status as a normal human being without any special medical condition that makes me especially susceptible to death due to Covid-19. By all means, those that are especially at risk should treat the situation appropriately, but that term is going to be different for everyone.

What? Go back and read what you wrote.

I did as you suggested and I don’t really see the disconnect. I guess Bensational summarized it in a clearer way than I did—of course those that are 55+ aren’t less valuable people—That would be my family and friends too. I’m saying that the widespread panic and 24/7 news coverage of this thing is fueling a disproportionate reaction by the public.

As a result (because people are crazy), medical professionals are having a tough time securing the supplies they need to treat and combat other diseases when they’re on the front lines every day, and episodes like heart attacks and strokes for example are getting blocked up because people are crowding ERs with the sniffles.

[Ducklett]

Using any Chinese data when they usually report that only ~140 people die from the flu every month would be a mistake at this juncture.

[BadMofoPimp]

Using any Chinese data when they usually report that only ~140 people die from the flu every month would be a mistake at this juncture.

I suspect China is drastically reducing the actual amount of deaths and probably cases of infected.

[fendilim]

Using any Chinese data when they usually report that only ~140 people die from the flu every month would be a mistake at this juncture.

You have a point, but I don't think the assumptions is isolated only to China.

There's a lot of financial consequences to disclose how grave the virus affects each country.

[yoyojw17]

Read on Twitter

Just gotta get them leads early!

[jezzerinho]

Lies, damn lies and stats. You could also read the same figures as " Magic are poor at building a lead - they've been behind on the scoreboard 38 out of 63 games (60%) heading into the fourth quarter".

Also, "Orlando is a terrible 5-26 against teams with winning records".