Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread III (Info. Post 1)

[NoDopeOnSundays]

Italy update (live press conference)

New cases
2989 (yesterday 2470)

Deaths
345 (yesterday 349)

Seem to have leveled off.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using RealGM mobile app

[shangrila]

Italy update (live press conference)

New cases
2989 (yesterday 2470)

Deaths
345 (yesterday 349)

How do the number of deaths go down? Or is that a daily number?

Sadly this is the daily number.

Jesus.

[Doug_12]

Americans are simply doing the same mistake every other country did... They are not taking it seriously. Europe is basically in total lockdown already, so is South America. As an European i can understand why people didn't want to overreact when it was just in Asia (heck, that happens every few years doesn't it?), and thought it was going to be ok for us.

But when you see nations like Italy be near a breaking point and all other European countries whose healthcare can easily rival the US go into basically total quarantines and lockdown you should KNOW IT'S SERIOUS! Nations aren't crashing their economies for the lulz. And yet most in the US still believe it will pass without affecting them, and because of that it will affect them 10x more than if they did the same as Italy is doing right now for example.

I think it's important to note that initially you actually want cases to rise. You want people to get the virus but in a way they can get best possible treatment.

So you have to let it grow before you impose lockdowns. The lockdowns will plateau the cases and let the hospitals treat patients while also getting as many people the virus as safely possible.

We won't be in the clear until at least 50% get it

Why?

We don't know if recovery provides any kind of immunity: https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/03/15/can-you-get-infected-by-coronavirus-twice-how-does-covid-19-immunity-work/#4ee8b3195c0f

There is no evidence of saying things like "herd immunity" will be achieved and should be risked to target. I'd rather impose lockdowns before it grows and then do everything to limit the spread until the vaccine is available.

[Dirk]

Why is Italy getting hit so hard with deaths compared to other places?

Age.





If you are young and have mild symptoms, you are actually told to stay at home and tough it out basically. Elderly are at a far greater risk and overwhelmed the hospitals.

[Sisqo]

Italy update (live press conference)

New cases
2989 (yesterday 2470)

Deaths
345 (yesterday 349)

Seem to have leveled off.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using RealGM mobile app

I hope you're right but one day isn't enough to tell, they have had small dips like Spain but suddenly get another spike. If their healthy system is as stressed as they are saying I can't imagine it's going to drop too much. I hope it does though.

[Michael Lucky]

Italy update (live press conference)

New cases
2989 (yesterday 2470)

Deaths
345 (yesterday 349)

Seem to have leveled off.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using RealGM mobile app

Not even the correct numbers since they subtract recover cases from new cases.

The total number of new cases is 3526 for today.

[ken6199]

New York 1700 total cases. New cases today: 731.

[Michael Lucky]

New York 1700 total cases. New cases today: 731.

We are far more populous too than Spain and Italy. Expect 10k new cases a day soon.

[Optimus_Steel]

House Democrats quietly passed another version of their coronavirus emergency relief bill on Monday evening that scaled back who would be eligible for additional paid time off for sick leave.

The Wall Street Journal reported that congressional Democrats modified their paid leave program they passed last week. It would still extend two weeks of sick pay to people who are affected by coronavirus, which includes those in quarantine and those caring for children whose schools closed their doors.

But any extension beyond that — 10 weeks — would only be granted to parents taking care of children with shuttered schools and day care centers. Health care workers, emergency responders, workers in quarantine or looking after family members with coronavirus would no longer qualify for the extra time off, The Journal reported.

There were already big exemptions in the emergency coronavirus bill that would have left out a significant segment of the American workforce. Companies employing more than 500 workers didn't have to comply with the rules compelling two weeks of sick pay to workers, even as they compose just over half of the labor force.

Most large companies provide some form of sick leave, though it averages out to around eight days. Small businesses with fewer than 50 workers can also lobby for exemptions through the Labor Department.

Experts like Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, said the original bill hadn't gone far enough to guarantee sick pay for American workers.

"It will expand coverage to millions of workers, but at the same time millions of them will fall through the cracks with the bill," Gould previously told Business Insider. "The more people we send home, the more we flatten the curve," referring to efforts aimed at preventing the virus' spread to a point that's manageable for the nation's healthcare system.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/house-democrats-just-passed-another-140559222.html

This was due the fact some GOP senators did not want to give that much sick pay from the original bill so the Democrats in the house took things away in this updated version.

[Pharmcat]

House Democrats quietly passed another version of their coronavirus emergency relief bill on Monday evening that scaled back who would be eligible for additional paid time off for sick leave.

The Wall Street Journal reported that congressional Democrats modified their paid leave program they passed last week. It would still extend two weeks of sick pay to people who are affected by coronavirus, which includes those in quarantine and those caring for children whose schools closed their doors.

But any extension beyond that — 10 weeks — would only be granted to parents taking care of children with shuttered schools and day care centers. Health care workers, emergency responders, workers in quarantine or looking after family members with coronavirus would no longer qualify for the extra time off, The Journal reported.

There were already big exemptions in the emergency coronavirus bill that would have left out a significant segment of the American workforce. Companies employing more than 500 workers didn't have to comply with the rules compelling two weeks of sick pay to workers, even as they compose just over half of the labor force.

Most large companies provide some form of sick leave, though it averages out to around eight days. Small businesses with fewer than 50 workers can also lobby for exemptions through the Labor Department.

Experts like Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, said the original bill hadn't gone far enough to guarantee sick pay for American workers.

"It will expand coverage to millions of workers, but at the same time millions of them will fall through the cracks with the bill," Gould previously told Business Insider. "The more people we send home, the more we flatten the curve," referring to efforts aimed at preventing the virus' spread to a point that's manageable for the nation's healthcare system.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/house-democrats-just-passed-another-140559222.html

This was due the fact some GOP senators did not want to give that much sick pay from the original bill so the Democrats in the house took things away in this updated version.

Weak ....pass what you want and let Senate deny it...it would make Senate look bad. Dems are so bad at politics , I'm convinced they are bought by same people as Republicans to act the way they do

[Doug_12]

Why is Italy getting hit so hard with deaths compared to other places?

Their health system got overwhelmed to a point where they literally can't treat everybody. There's stories of them having to decide who they're going to treat for example, and apparently they don't test nurses anymore.

And this is why containment measures are important. That health sector getting overwhelmed is the real danger.

And also other countries are just simply lagging behind. The share of those who are registered as infected earlier then 12 days ago are much less in other countries. (Italy has 24k today and had 3k on the 4th of March. Germany has 8k and had 260 back then.) Based on the Wuhan report 17 days are required on general from infection to die. And 5 days are required to get symptoms, so most patients are not detected until day 5, then usually 12 days are required for someone to die.

This is why I don't belive that the legendary german health system is coping with this. They have more capacities than anyone, but the majority of their patients also haven't reached the point when they'll start dying.

[Dirk]

How do the number of deaths go down? Or is that a daily number?

Sadly this is the daily number.

Jesus.

This is the daily variation (%)

[Optimus_Steel]

House Democrats quietly passed another version of their coronavirus emergency relief bill on Monday evening that scaled back who would be eligible for additional paid time off for sick leave.

The Wall Street Journal reported that congressional Democrats modified their paid leave program they passed last week. It would still extend two weeks of sick pay to people who are affected by coronavirus, which includes those in quarantine and those caring for children whose schools closed their doors.

But any extension beyond that — 10 weeks — would only be granted to parents taking care of children with shuttered schools and day care centers. Health care workers, emergency responders, workers in quarantine or looking after family members with coronavirus would no longer qualify for the extra time off, The Journal reported.

There were already big exemptions in the emergency coronavirus bill that would have left out a significant segment of the American workforce. Companies employing more than 500 workers didn't have to comply with the rules compelling two weeks of sick pay to workers, even as they compose just over half of the labor force.

Most large companies provide some form of sick leave, though it averages out to around eight days. Small businesses with fewer than 50 workers can also lobby for exemptions through the Labor Department.

Experts like Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, said the original bill hadn't gone far enough to guarantee sick pay for American workers.

"It will expand coverage to millions of workers, but at the same time millions of them will fall through the cracks with the bill," Gould previously told Business Insider. "The more people we send home, the more we flatten the curve," referring to efforts aimed at preventing the virus' spread to a point that's manageable for the nation's healthcare system.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/house-democrats-just-passed-another-140559222.html

This was due the fact some GOP senators did not want to give that much sick pay from the original bill so the Democrats in the house took things away in this updated version.

Weak ....pass what you want and let Senate deny it...it would make Senate look bad. Dems are so bad at politics , I'm convinced they are bought by same people as Republicans to act the way they do

Unfortunately you are correct, they waive the white flag without putting a fight (they pretend to put up a fight before giving in). They do have some of the same large donors, after all Pelosi's claim to fame is that she has "fund raised" $600 Million dollars.

[ken6199]

New York 1700 total cases. New cases today: 731.

We are far more populous too than Spain and Italy. Expect 10k new cases a day soon.

I want to see the number spikes as it should. +731 for NY means they ramped up the testing capability which is a good sign. There should be way more people infected than 1700 in NY.

[madmaxmedia]

New York 1700 total cases. New cases today: 731.

We are far more populous too than Spain and Italy. Expect 10k new cases a day soon.

I want to see the number spikes as it should. +731 for NY means they ramped up the testing capability which is a good sign. There should be way more people infected than 1700 in NY.

Right, there is a big difference between confirmed/tested cases and actual cases. At this point sharp spikes in confirmed cases across the USA will in large part be due to more testing.

Over time the data will give us more clues as to what the real number of cases/spread rates might be here or in other countries.

[Paija]

Mark Cuban tweeted this source as a good view of the stats as they change:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

This is a nice resource, but there are several countries where I simply cannot believe the numbers. One is India, they are probably not testing at all. The second is Turkey - they are near Iran and Istanbul is a large transportation hub. The first patient in Estonia came from Iran via Istanbul and Riga.
Third is Russia. They also do very little testing. As USA they do not approve of tests from other countries and every sample is flown to Novosibirsk. They are bordering China in Far East and many tourists from Moscow went to Italy, Austria and other European countries. They still test you only if you came from China, Korea or Italy. When many people from Italy came back, they tested only those from China at that time. There is suspicious increase of deaths from pneumonia, but of course they do not report that.

[SFour]

just an example of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and how long it takes to carry out a clinical trial

Moderna's messenger RNA vaccine
(Moderna is a Cambridge, Massachusetts-based biotechnology company)

mRNA-1273 is a novel lipid nanoparticle (LNP)-encapsulated mRNA-based vaccine that encodes for a full-length, prefusion stabilized spike (S) protein of 2019-novel coronavirus (nCoV).

45 healthy adults will participate in the phase 1 clinical trial that's being conducted by the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Each patient will be given two doses of Moderna's experimental vaccine, with the second dose coming 28 days after the first dose.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461?term=mRNA-1273&draw=2&rank=1

Actual Study Start Date: March 3, 2020
Estimated Primary Completion Date: June 1, 2021
Estimated Study Completion Date: June 1, 2021

[LKN]

Why is Italy getting hit so hard with deaths compared to other places?

Age.





If you are young and have mild symptoms, you are actually told to stay at home and tough it out basically. Elderly are at a far greater risk and overwhelmed the hospitals.

They let it get out of control and didn't test and contain early enough. Italy is STILL testing a high percentage of symptomatic people.

Sound like anywhere else you know?

[EvanZ]

Here is my prediction. Please dyodd.

This crisis is going to come in several waves.

We are in the first wave. The measures being taken now will work to some extent and the new cases/deaths will peak in the next few weeks. In 1-2 months there will be very few new cases/deaths, but there will be some.

Victory will be declared like you've never seen. Mission Accomplished X10. People will be so happy to get out of their houses and "back to normal" just in time for summer.

We can go one of two ways from there.

1. Treat every new case like the original outbreak. Rapid testing and containtment/isolation/quarantine approach like should have been done in January when the first cases started appearing. Epidemiology at its finest. For this to work, travel must be banned within the US. It's too massive a country to handle everything at once. Response needs to be coordinated at the Federal level.

2. We don't take the steps in 1, and this is basically rinse, wash, and repeat until a vaccine arrives in 1 to 1.5 years. Expect at least one more wave until it is finally realized that #1 is actually required the next time around.

Stock market will rally in a few weeks when the deaths/cases crest. It will crash again either in the summer or fall when the second wave hits.

Stay safe everyone and everyone you love. Peace.

[SF_Warriors]

Americans are simply doing the same mistake every other country did... They are not taking it seriously. Europe is basically in total lockdown already, so is South America. As an European i can understand why people didn't want to overreact when it was just in Asia (heck, that happens every few years doesn't it?), and thought it was going to be ok for us.

But when you see nations like Italy be near a breaking point and all other European countries whose healthcare can easily rival the US go into basically total quarantines and lockdown you should KNOW IT'S SERIOUS! Nations aren't crashing their economies for the lulz. And yet most in the US still believe it will pass without affecting them, and because of that it will affect them 10x more than if they did the same as Italy is doing right now for example.

In the bay area they've already shut down schools, bars, clubs, gyms, and declared a "lockdown" with all non essential businesses closed, all concerts/events/sports cancelled until April at least ..all who can work from home are doing so..streets are empty and rush hour traffic is nonexistent. I'd say people are taking it seriously but people are still going out and grocery shopping and the amount of medical professionals potentially exposed I can see things getting worse. The one thing I am most concerned about for SF is the amount of homeless people that may require medical attention and that may have a hand in overwhelming hospitals there. People here are definitely not out and partying and the amount of people going out for any reason have declined dramatically.