Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread IV (Must read Post 1)

[Triples333]

Daily deaths in the US have dropped 2 days in a row. Is it too good to be true we are starting to beat the virus?

Huh?

Unfortunately it is just beginning. I don't quite trust the numbers on diagnosed or even deaths (they can label them deaths by other means in the patient has multiple complications, regardless if Covid is what ultimately did them in. A nice little workaround for governments), but rest assure no, we have not begun to beat anything. There were 3K new cases (confirmed: and lol) in the USA today. That was more than December-March 1st combined. The true number (because the vast majority will not get tested or can not get tested is likely >20X that in the USA, and growing) is obviously WELL beyond that. We will be OK, but don't for a second think we have begun to "beat" anything. We have not done **** in the USA. Our government took nothing seriously and no serious precautions concerning pandemics in the past 10-20 years ago, and took it less seriously in this current one. We were way too late. It's time to do what we can for this NOW and look forward at this point.


Anecdote: A good friend of mine had to go to the hospital yesterday in my city and said he asked his nurse if there have been any cases reported there yet (so far we do not, but he has severe respiratory issues). He said she rolled her eyes to the back of her head and could not confirm anything. Not a good sign. The under-reporting is massive because industries are trying to stay afloat (trust me, I understand), and are putting pressure to limit positive tests in their cities. Do any of you honestly think China (1.4 Billion population) has 80K cases (their reported number... that makes absolutely no sense given reports in other nations)? I would expect they have NO less than 10 million cases and kept it quiet while allowing their citizens to travel to wherever in the world over the past 6 months while it spread (this is not conjecture, but fact). They did literally fuse many of their citizens into their homes so they could not escape and endanger others, so that controlled some of the spread, but the rest of the world will not take those actions and for better or worse (sign me up for better). But, because most nations do not run their government as dictators ala China, we are going to see the effects (again, thanks to them for keeping it quiet).

This is not some humanity debilitating virus thankfully (the next one could be, and that is why we need to WAKE UP concerning virus protection), but brother no, this has barely begun.

[og15]

Read on Twitter

Keep it up responsible citizens!

Although I feel sorry for Florida and Tennessee from this example.

I posted the links to the Kinsa maps the other day. Florida definitely not looking good there.



https://healthweather.us/

A lot of places looking very bad in the observed illness map below.

I'd be interested to see charts of death rates from pneumonia, flu like illnesses and respiratory issues. I'm pretty convinced we are missing deaths from COVID-19, possibly quite a few.

Quite certainly they are being missed. It's also very likely that the infections have been happening before the times that were quoted as the "official" entry time into the US considering that the Wuhan quarantine and the travel restrictions with China did not come until January while the first confirmation for China was in November. It's not realistic with how world wide travel works for us to think that from November until travel restrictions were made, the virus had not crossed over and infected people before the first official report. There has been a lot of anecdotal reporting of symptoms similar to what covid-19 presents with, where people were tested and they were told that it is an "unknown" respiratory viral infection, but they tested negative for influenza A and B. Also of people who died due to a respiratory virus but had tested negative for the flu. Of course now in hindsight we might go back and say "hmmm, that might have been covid-19 back in December", but at the time obviously there was no thought of that.

Sadly it still seems like the problem of many people not understanding exponential growth and not taking things as seriously as they should is going on, especially in places where they haven't been a lot of cases, or even any confirmed cases. So they keep thinking, "oh the numbers aren't that bad, it's not that bad, so I can keep on going out whenever and partying, etc". Or that they are young and if they get it, it won't be a big deal, but aren't thinking about how we contribute to the spread. What they aren't understanding is that with exponential growth, which is what happens with pandemics, you don't know it is bad until it is too late, which is why you take drastic measures early to prevent the trying to stop it when it is too late scenario (eg: Italy). If everyone follows those measures well early, it should actually reduce the amount of time we have to follow those measures.

The reason it happens like this is that the explosion happens in a very short span, so there can be a long lag time where it seems like it is growing slowly, then in a couple of days, it just explodes, and it makes sense if you get exponential growth or if you just do the multiplication. If something is doubling everyday, the first week, 7 days it will go from 2 to 128. That's not that bad, actually 128 cases is nothing, but of course many of the infected don't know they are infected and are spreading it. The second week it goes from 128 to 16,384. That's a huge jump, but in a huge population, that's not that bad. Now, if you give it another week that number will not jump from 16,384 to 2 million. So day 7, people are saying, it's just 128 people, no big deal, by day 14, it's 16,000 people, then people think it is serious and start to take action, but it's getting a bit too late, and then by day 21, it's 2 million, and if you rewind, the jump from about 120,000 to 2 million happens in just 4 days. Obviously long before this time countries would have hopefully taken strict measures, but we can see that if you were at 2 million and didn't have strict measures in place, in three days your exponential growth would get you to 16 million. So we see that US for example has around 27,000 confirmed cases, obviously there are more we don't know about due to lack of serious symptoms, but we can understand that if people didn't take the social distancing and staying home seriously (which thankfully many are) and things were going as normal, the log of that number in three days would have you at 200K+ and then you're in trouble.

[shangrila]

So some of the states in Australia, including NSW where I live, are going into lockdown. The details aren't clear as to what will be "essential" and allowed to remain open, but some of it has already been mentioned and is obvious (supermarkets, pharmacists, freight services).

Apparently it was partly caused because hundreds of people were at Bondi Beach in Sydney the other day, ignoring social distancing entirely and it pissed off a lot of the people in government. So they closed the beach, which is nice and all, but they left the beach open right near where I live so that was packed today.

So you can expect an AMA from me after I catch this disease from all the morons flocking to my little town because they're bored and want to go to the beach.

[Triples333]

So some of the states in Australia, including NSW where I live, are going into lockdown. The details aren't clear as to what will be "essential" and allowed to remain open, but some of it has already been mentioned and is obvious (supermarkets, pharmacists, freight services).

Apparently it was partly caused because hundreds of people were at Bondi Beach in Sydney the other day, ignoring social distancing entirely and it pissed off a lot of the people in government. So they closed the beach, which is nice and all, but they left the beach open right near where I live so that was packed today.

So you can expect an AMA from me after I catch this disease from all the morons flocking to my little town because they're bored and want to go to the beach.

Considering billions of people will get the virus, rest assure, your AMA will not be needed. That sucks though. Wishing you and the Aussies well.

[Richfield]

(per Cuomo)

Millions within months.

40%-80% of NYers will be infected.

"About 40 to 80 percent of the state's population is going to be affected by coronavirus, says Governor Cuomo. That amounts to 7.8 million to 15.6 million New Yorkers infected."


https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/coronavirus-blog/2020/03/21/coronavirus-cases-grow--cuomo-says-40-to-80--in-ny-will-be-infected

[GQ Hot Dog]

https://www.ktvu.com/news/infectious-disease-specialist-disagrees-with-u-s-approach-against-coronavirus

Some key points from the interview: Outbreaks of the disease are limited to regions with a relatively narrow range of climactic conditions, specifically cold and wet weather. Because of this, the correct response should be a local response. Regions with such climactic conditions should engage in quarantining and transmission tracking. Country and region-wide lockdowns are unnecessary and encourage panic and misinformation. Testing is key. Increasingly we are hearing, including from government officials, that the spread can no longer be controlled. This is incorrect. With readily available testing, and due to the relatively narrow conditions in which the virus thrives it's entirely possible, as has been shown in S. Korea and China, to bring outbreaks to an end in a matter of weeks. Warming weather will bring outbreaks to an end as early as mid to late April.

[Richfield]

https://www.ktvu.com/news/infectious-disease-specialist-disagrees-with-u-s-approach-against-coronavirus

Some key points from the interview: Outbreaks of the disease are limited to regions with a relatively narrow range of climactic conditions, specifically cold and wet weather. Because of this, the correct response should be a local response. Regions with such climactic conditions should engage in quarantining and transmission tracking. Country and region-wide lockdowns are unnecessary and encourage panic and misinformation. Testing is key. Increasingly we are hearing, including from government officials, that the spread can no longer be controlled. This is incorrect. With readily available testing, and due to the relatively narrow conditions in which the virus thrives it's entirely possible, as has been shown in S. Korea and China, to bring outbreaks to an end in a matter of weeks. Warming weather will bring outbreaks to an end as early as mid to late April.

We are without it.

[Metallikid]

Anyone who is willing to dismiss the threat of the virus simply because they believe that it only affect older people or that it won't be as dangerous to their health is being intentionally ignorant.

There are millions of Americans between the ages of 20-50 who suffered from Diabetes, Heart diseases, Cancer, and a bunch of medical conditions that leave their immune systems compromised.

So, if you have a medical condition or know someone who has a medical condition that could weaken your immune system, you and they have an obligation to stay home and not gather in large crowd because your health will be at risk.

Furthermore, the sheer number of people who are going to be hospitalized is going to overwhelm the healthcare system.

As a result, a young person who is healthy at the moment but all of a sudden got a medical emergency is not going to be able to get treatments since the doctors and nurses are going to be too busy dealing with all of the patients that have shown up in critical conditions.

Most everyone in that age bracket I know is taking it seriously. Though my dad in his 70s is acting as business as usual and is still out and about, regardless of what my brother and I tell him. He also has high blood pressure, diabetes and a stint in his heart.

Show him the Italian chart that was translated pages back, maybe in the previous thread. It said that 70% of those who came in with COVID and who had Hypertension didn't make it. It was the worst risk factor of them all.

[Lalouie]

You're welcome any time bro...bout to be pool season here! No way the virus survives 120

most of my friends are in scottsdale. i had to cancel because my seminar was cancelled. i know scottsdale like the back of my hand. i've been doing my seminar for 30yrs in old town.

yeah i can visit and we can talk about how big a fail miller has been and how miserable my bruins have been.

I've read what sound like contradictions. One says, cleaning is minimally effective. It doesn't mean it's okay to live in a pig sty but most of the time the virus does not last outside the body. OTOH, we have had the cruise passengers get it en masse. There, bleach doesn't even disinfect it enough. Even then, the specialists say it's due to person-to-person transmission. I still would clean and disinfect, but it's not the best way to combat this. That said, a cheap disinfectant is hydrogen peroxide besides the other recommended ones.

BTW I go to Scottsdale to discuss movie posters. It's a side trip for my hobby while heading down Route 66. My daughter goes to UCLA, too, and hopefully she'll make it all right coming to visit for spring break.

all perplexing reports if you ask me. why so many in new rochelle and barely a handful with players who live life together. the cruise ships i think i can explain. they all breathe recirculated air.

but,,,what did the people do in the synagogue at new rochelle that's different from guys sweating all over each other in a locker room and fly in the same plane. i am perplexed. time will tell but i don't think the virus is as easy to pass. either that or it just bypasses some people

one thing seems pretty certain. it's a strong virus but it can be killed by diligent individuals. i am creating a protocol for me and my wife. indoor clothes and outdoor clothes, and when i get home i put the outdoor clothes in the washer, wash my hands and then take a shower. i assume everything is tainted. i hope they enact a curfew because there's a lot of stupid people walking around

your daughter must be smart

[Jellybeans]

Few days ago Woj posted that some1 from Denver has tested positive.
Saw Jamal Murray trending.Oh hes tested positive i guess.
Damn i was wrong on so many levels xD

[Lalouie]

Few days ago Woj posted that some1 from Denver has tested positive.
Saw Jamal Murray trending.Oh hes tested positive..
I was wrong

so there has to least be TWO players on a team to make an "assumption" that one infected the other

[Mulhollanddrive]

Do we want this to be seasonal?

I'd rather it not so we can deal with it now otherwise it'll come back end of year and we'll be at the start again.

[Imon]

Jamal Murray definitely not practicing social distancing.

[basketballRob]

Reading this from the CDC it says the mortality rate right now is 7.1% for the flu and pneumonia. Could this be unreported Covid-19 cases? Am i missing something?


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

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[KingDavid]

Too much zinc may not be good for you. I know some have said they supplement with 50 mgs per day and i think the RDA is only around 12. Just do your own research on supplements. I take D C B and zinc but i think I'm going to break my 50 mgs of zinc into smaller pieces.


https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/health/can-zinc-lozenges-help-coronavirus-infections

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Our cells can't absorb that much zinc without intervention. Have you had any side effects from that amount? Even something as subtle as a minor loss of appetite?

[KingDavid]

Daily deaths in the US have dropped 2 days in a row. Is it too good to be true we are starting to beat the virus?

Apparently the virus comes in waves so, no. Also, there's a very high chance we're underreporting the deaths by linking them to other causes of death. Meh.

[basketballRob]

Too much zinc may not be good for you. I know some have said they supplement with 50 mgs per day and i think the RDA is only around 12. Just do your own research on supplements. I take D C B and zinc but i think I'm going to break my 50 mgs of zinc into smaller pieces.


https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/health/can-zinc-lozenges-help-coronavirus-infections

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Our cells can't absorb that much zinc without intervention. Have you had any side effects from that amount? Even something as subtle as a minor loss of appetite?

No i haven't really had any side effects, but I've only been supplementing with zinc for a couple of weeks. I do think I'll break the 50 mgs into smaller pieces and take them every other day, just to be safe.

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[KingDavid]

Too much zinc may not be good for you. I know some have said they supplement with 50 mgs per day and i think the RDA is only around 12. Just do your own research on supplements. I take D C B and zinc but i think I'm going to break my 50 mgs of zinc into smaller pieces.


https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/health/can-zinc-lozenges-help-coronavirus-infections

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Our cells can't absorb that much zinc without intervention. Have you had any side effects from that amount? Even something as subtle as a minor loss of appetite?

No i haven't really had any side effects, but I've only been supplementing with zinc for a couple of weeks. I do think I'll break the 50 mgs into smaller pieces and take them every other day, just to be safe.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Def make sure you break it into 1/8ths at minimum and take one of those in the morning and another at night. If that's too difficult to separate, get your money back and get a smaller dose.

Like, zicam is 3mg in comparison. I'm glad you were already being diligent about your research.

[Slacktard]

Reading this from the CDC it says the mortality rate right now is 7.1% for the flu and pneumonia. Could this be unreported Covid-19 cases? Am i missing something?


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Probably some. Many doctors are likely to diagnose as the flu and treat based on symptoms without having a flu test run and if hopitalized a patient may be tested for the "main" flu strains and if negative just considered an alternate strain or may already have pneumonia and be considered from the flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
Last year the CDC estimated 35.5 mil got the flu, 16.5 mil went to a healthcare provider, but only 1.2mil flu tests were actually run. So it shows how much more likely a doctor would be to say a patient has the flu without running a test.

[chrismikayla]

Read on Twitter

Keep it up responsible citizens!

Although I feel sorry for Florida and Tennessee from this example.

I posted the links to the Kinsa maps the other day. Florida definitely not looking good there.



https://healthweather.us/

A lot of places looking very bad in the observed illness map below.

Thanks that's very interesting. I wonder what the difference is in the middle of the country? Less densely populated areas?