OT: Democratic Primary Thread

[HarthorneWingo]

Are there any black leaders who have criticized Biden that aren't Bernie surrogates who engineered a campaign that lost the black vote by 70 points or random Trump supporting nobodies from literally the opposition party (GOP)?

I have good news

Watch on YouTube

[Pointgod]

Read on Twitter

[HarthorneWingo]

Read on Twitter

And Hillary lost. Joe’s only up nationally by 7%? That’s not something to brag about. I’d also like to see some polling from black voters after Joe’s “then you ain’t black” gaffe. Also, I believe that Trump is going to use the Justice Department to prosecute the Arbery murder as a hate crime and politicize it against Biden.

I (and GONYK) think what is more significant is the percentage of undecided voters in each of the battleground states? That’s what we need to focus on.

[CharlesOakley]

I'm going to vote for whatever **** stain the democrats put forward over a fascist moron but Joe Biden is a horrible candidate in this moment in history.

Part of the reason Hillary performed so poorly was an over-reliance on polling. When people intend to vote for a monster they don't report it honestly.

[GONYK]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

[robillionaire]

well, they can't say they weren't warned.

[j4remi]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Brings me back to my old theory that Bernie was more electable because he appealed to the voters who would stay home as opposed to the "vote blue no matter who" voters that were gonna show up for the Dems regardless of the nominee.

Bernie's edge in the General is that he'll have activated the subset of voters that stay home when they aren't galvanized while the section that voted against him (in the primary) are the most reliable portion of the Democratic voters. I think his(Bernie's) numbers are the portion of Democrats who need to be turned out in order to win, but don't consistently show up.

What Obama managed was to merge these volatile voting base that Bernie has tapped into with the broadly reliable voters who show up consistently to always vote blue. But Bernie hasn't locked those consistent types yet. But just because he's not their first choice doesn't mean those people wouldn't vote for Bernie or that they even dislike his policies. Bernie polls best as Biden voters' second choice.

Bold added for clarity since I'm pulling this from a mid-convo PM.

Edit: Also, just to throw this in. If youth is the target, Pressley >>> Harris or Abrams imo. That's not data based though, just the sense I get from convo's with progressives. Abrams has lost some of her shine with progressives (albeit I disagree with some of the issues they've taken) and Harris never had it.

[Pointgod]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Why isn’t the title of the article called anyone but Amy? Lol. No matter who’s picked, there’s a narrative some group is left out. If he picks Harris or Abrams Progressives will say he abandoned them. If he picks Warren black women and Bernie supporters will be pissed. If he selects an older running mate young people will be mad... so on and so forth. The big picture is that he’s not going to please everybody and there’s way too much emphasis put on a position that traditionally doesn’t have that much power or responsibility. No matter the pick, people need to show up and vote blue down the ticket.

[DOT]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Brings me back to my old theory that Bernie was more electable because he appealed to the voters who would stay home as opposed to the "vote blue no matter who" voters that were gonna show up for the Dems regardless of the nominee.

Bernie's edge in the General is that he'll have activated the subset of voters that stay home when they aren't galvanized while the section that voted against him (in the primary) are the most reliable portion of the Democratic voters. I think his(Bernie's) numbers are the portion of Democrats who need to be turned out in order to win, but don't consistently show up.

What Obama managed was to merge these volatile voting base that Bernie has tapped into with the broadly reliable voters who show up consistently to always vote blue. But Bernie hasn't locked those consistent types yet. But just because he's not their first choice doesn't mean those people wouldn't vote for Bernie or that they even dislike his policies. Bernie polls best as Biden voters' second choice.

Bold added for clarity since I'm pulling this from a mid-convo PM.

Edit: Also, just to throw this in. If youth is the target, Pressley >>> Harris or Abrams imo. That's not data based though, just the sense I get from convo's with progressives. Abrams has lost some of her shine with progressives (albeit I disagree with some of the issues they've taken) and Harris never had it.

I mean, the whole thing about Biden was that 90% of his voters said they were blue no matter who, compared to 50% of Bernie's voters, and they were both the 2nd choice for the majority of each other's base. Bernie got people who aren't traditionally part of the Dem base to vote for him, his challenge was gonna be to convince the base to still turn out

Which he could have done like how Obama did it, with a Biden type of VP

So it's like, Biden has the most broad support, but he isn't bringing anyone new to the table. Almost anyone who's voting for Biden is doing so as a vote against Trump, in which case their votes still likely go to Bernie. With that being said, Biden still won the primary, although I do have to wonder how much of that was due to the establishment and the media pushing the "Biden is the only electable candidate" angle

But the Dems are gonna go back to that same well of appealing to the old, white, middle class folk who only vote blue when the Republican option is categorically worse, and even then they still don't vote Dem, just less majority vote Rep. Which isn't an issue this election, but time has shown that coming off a Dem presidency, those voters will always go back to voting for the Republican, and the Dems keep relying on them to not do that. Which is why even if Biden wins this fall, if the Dems go back to that same well in 2024, they're gonna lose again

[Pointgod]

Read on Twitter

And Hillary lost. Joe’s only up nationally by 7%? That’s not something to brag about. I’d also like to see some polling from black voters after Joe’s “then you ain’t black” gaffe. Also, I believe that Trump is going to use the Justice Department to prosecute the Arbery murder as a hate crime and politicize it against Biden.

I (and GONYK) think what is more significant is the percentage of undecided voters in each of the battleground states? That’s what we need to focus on.

The polls correctly predicted that Hillary would win the national popular vote, what they didn’t take into account is the state wide voting and how razor thing it would be. I don’t have the data but a 7 point national lead on an incumbent President is not something I imagine happens very often. Even Rasmussen has Biden ahead by 4 points or so. Still everyone should treat it like Biden’s down 10 points and vote like their lives depend on it, because it actually does. Not sure if the polls are taking into account voter suppression and how the pandemic will affect voting patterns. If the people that usually vote Democrat show up, then Biden wins. If he gets Obama levels of turnout due to people wanting to get Trump out, it’s a blowout. However there’s still a lot to happen between now and November I’ll never count out a number of things that could happen help Trump.

[GONYK]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Why isn’t the title of the article called anyone but Amy? Lol. No matter who’s picked, there’s a narrative some group is left out. If he picks Harris or Abrams Progressives will say he abandoned them. If he picks Warren black women and Bernie supporters will be pissed. If he selects an older running mate young people will be mad... so on and so forth. The big picture is that he’s not going to please everybody and there’s way too much emphasis put on a position that traditionally doesn’t have that much power or responsibility. No matter the pick, people need to show up and vote blue down the ticket.

I think Harris and Abrams are seen as progressive enough to bridge the gap in this article (though I don't agree on Harris).

I think Warren is the strongest, but very unlikely, choice

[GONYK]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Brings me back to my old theory that Bernie was more electable because he appealed to the voters who would stay home as opposed to the "vote blue no matter who" voters that were gonna show up for the Dems regardless of the nominee.

Bernie's edge in the General is that he'll have activated the subset of voters that stay home when they aren't galvanized while the section that voted against him (in the primary) are the most reliable portion of the Democratic voters. I think his(Bernie's) numbers are the portion of Democrats who need to be turned out in order to win, but don't consistently show up.

What Obama managed was to merge these volatile voting base that Bernie has tapped into with the broadly reliable voters who show up consistently to always vote blue. But Bernie hasn't locked those consistent types yet. But just because he's not their first choice doesn't mean those people wouldn't vote for Bernie or that they even dislike his policies. Bernie polls best as Biden voters' second choice.

Bold added for clarity since I'm pulling this from a mid-convo PM.

Edit: Also, just to throw this in. If youth is the target, Pressley >>> Harris or Abrams imo. That's not data based though, just the sense I get from convo's with progressives. Abrams has lost some of her shine with progressives (albeit I disagree with some of the issues they've taken) and Harris never had it.

I mean, the whole thing about Biden was that 90% of his voters said they were blue no matter who, compared to 50% of Bernie's voters, and they were both the 2nd choice for the majority of each other's base. Bernie got people who aren't traditionally part of the Dem base to vote for him, his challenge was gonna be to convince the base to still turn out

Which he could have done like how Obama did it, with a Biden type of VP

So it's like, Biden has the most broad support, but he isn't bringing anyone new to the table. Almost anyone who's voting for Biden is doing so as a vote against Trump, in which case their votes still likely go to Bernie. With that being said, Biden still won the primary, although I do have to wonder how much of that was due to the establishment and the media pushing the "Biden is the only electable candidate" angle

But the Dems are gonna go back to that same well of appealing to the old, white, middle class folk who only vote blue when the Republican option is categorically worse, and even then they still don't vote Dem, just less majority vote Rep. Which isn't an issue this election, but time has shown that coming off a Dem presidency, those voters will always go back to voting for the Republican, and the Dems keep relying on them to not do that. Which is why even if Biden wins this fall, if the Dems go back to that same well in 2024, they're gonna lose again

My issue with this analysis is that Biden didn't win because of old, white, middle class folk. He won because of the black vote.

No matter who else you bring to the table, if you don't have the black vote, you will not be the Presidential nominee of the Dem party.

I feel like Biden is getting the short shrift of that fact when people analyze him as a candidate. Bernie supposedly activated all these supplemental voters, but never brought in the base.

I think a supplemental candidate, which is what a VP is, can be used to bring in a supplemental voting population. It's on Biden to pick the right one.

[DOT]

Brings me back to my old theory that Bernie was more electable because he appealed to the voters who would stay home as opposed to the "vote blue no matter who" voters that were gonna show up for the Dems regardless of the nominee.



Bold added for clarity since I'm pulling this from a mid-convo PM.

Edit: Also, just to throw this in. If youth is the target, Pressley >>> Harris or Abrams imo. That's not data based though, just the sense I get from convo's with progressives. Abrams has lost some of her shine with progressives (albeit I disagree with some of the issues they've taken) and Harris never had it.

I mean, the whole thing about Biden was that 90% of his voters said they were blue no matter who, compared to 50% of Bernie's voters, and they were both the 2nd choice for the majority of each other's base. Bernie got people who aren't traditionally part of the Dem base to vote for him, his challenge was gonna be to convince the base to still turn out

Which he could have done like how Obama did it, with a Biden type of VP

So it's like, Biden has the most broad support, but he isn't bringing anyone new to the table. Almost anyone who's voting for Biden is doing so as a vote against Trump, in which case their votes still likely go to Bernie. With that being said, Biden still won the primary, although I do have to wonder how much of that was due to the establishment and the media pushing the "Biden is the only electable candidate" angle

But the Dems are gonna go back to that same well of appealing to the old, white, middle class folk who only vote blue when the Republican option is categorically worse, and even then they still don't vote Dem, just less majority vote Rep. Which isn't an issue this election, but time has shown that coming off a Dem presidency, those voters will always go back to voting for the Republican, and the Dems keep relying on them to not do that. Which is why even if Biden wins this fall, if the Dems go back to that same well in 2024, they're gonna lose again

My issue with this analysis is that Biden didn't win because of old, white, middle class folk. He won because of the black vote.

No matter who else you bring to the table, if you don't have the black vote, you will not be the Presidential nominee of the Dem party.

I feel like Biden is getting the short shrift of that fact when people analyze him as a candidate. Bernie supposedly activated all these supplemental voters, but never brought in the base.

I think a supplemental candidate, which is what a VP is, can be used to bring in a supplemental voting population. It's on Biden to pick the right one.

He really just won by default cause nobody else really had a big coalition, and the Dem establishment was pushing him as the guy from the start

I'm just really tired of seeing the Dems roll out the same plan of "look how bad the R candidate is" every time, and only winning when it's readily apparent the Republicans should not be in charge. If you could unite the moderates and the progressives, you'd win hands down, and I'll give Biden credit, he does seem to understand he needs to appeal to the progressives.

[HarthorneWingo]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Why isn’t the title of the article called anyone but Amy? Lol. No matter who’s picked, there’s a narrative some group is left out. If he picks Harris or Abrams Progressives will say he abandoned them. If he picks Warren black women and Bernie supporters will be pissed. If he selects an older running mate young people will be mad... so on and so forth. The big picture is that he’s not going to please everybody and there’s way too much emphasis put on a position that traditionally doesn’t have that much power or responsibility. No matter the pick, people need to show up and vote blue down the ticket.

I think Harris and Abrams are seen as progressive enough to bridge the gap in this article (though I don't agree on Harris).

I think Warren is the strongest, but very unlikely, choice

The DNC is going to F this up. You watch.

[HarthorneWingo]

Obama has to be calling all the shots from behind the curtain.

[HarthorneWingo]

Why does this website constantly jump around like Mexican jumping bean? Trying to hit a button is like playing whack-a-mole.

[Phish Tank]

Obama has to be calling all the shots from behind the curtain.

he certainly's calling a lot.

In the end of the day, politics is all about building coalitions across states and countries. Where Bernie failed - which really sucked tbh - is that he didn't build a bigger coalition in the South and in Michigan. I need to find data on turnout in the primaries, but it also seems like they couldn't register a lot of young people down in there in margins that could even compete with Biden.

Sucks because I'd have been down for a Bernie campaign, tho he'd have to get rid of some of his problematic surrogates and advisors

[j4remi]

My issue with this analysis is that Biden didn't win because of old, white, middle class folk. He won because of the black vote.

No matter who else you bring to the table, if you don't have the black vote, you will not be the Presidential nominee of the Dem party.

Why are you assuming that Bernie wouldn't get the black vote in a general election? I don't want this to come across as a gotcha but you've expressed that most people around you identified with the "you ain't black" thing right? Would that math change if it's Bernie vs Trump or am I missing something? Hell, even with Joe winning the primary election by large margins, Bernie's policies fared better in the exit polling up through Super Tuesday (I stopped looking at exit polls post Bernie concession so can't speak to anything after).

I feel like Biden is getting the short shrift of that fact when people analyze him as a candidate. Bernie supposedly activated all these supplemental voters, but never brought in the base.

I think a supplemental candidate, which is what a VP is, can be used to bring in a supplemental voting population. It's on Biden to pick the right one.

But the goal is to aim for pragmatism. You don't NEED to bring in the base, it's the base for a reason. They're going to vote for the Dems. That's the whole point here. Bernie brought in additional coalitions that would effectively pad the numbers to make for a safe win assuming the base didn't abandon ship and I haven't seen any data that suggests the base would have done that if Bernie won. Biden brought in...nothing...he just won out with the same voters who were always gonna show up to a general election and vote blue anyway.

[j4remi]

Obama has to be calling all the shots from behind the curtain.

Obama's shadow third term >>> Joe Biden is actually leading as narratives heading into a general election imo...not even kidding.

[GONYK]

My issue with this analysis is that Biden didn't win because of old, white, middle class folk. He won because of the black vote.

No matter who else you bring to the table, if you don't have the black vote, you will not be the Presidential nominee of the Dem party.

Why are you assuming that Bernie wouldn't get the black vote in a general election? I don't want this to come across as a gotcha but you've expressed that most people around you identified with the "you ain't black" thing right? Would that math change if it's Bernie vs Trump or am I missing something? Hell, even with Joe winning the primary election by large margins, Bernie's policies fared better in the exit polling up through Super Tuesday (I stopped looking at exit polls post Bernie concession so can't speak to anything after).

I'm not. Any Dem would get the black vote in a general. I'm just speaking to why Biden is the nominee right now and Bernie isn't, and pushing back against the claim that it was old, middle class white people who buoyed him. The black vote was the single most powerful voting bloc in the primaries, and Joe captured almost all of it.

I think it sells him short as a candidate to dismiss that.

I feel like Biden is getting the short shrift of that fact when people analyze him as a candidate. Bernie supposedly activated all these supplemental voters, but never brought in the base.

I think a supplemental candidate, which is what a VP is, can be used to bring in a supplemental voting population. It's on Biden to pick the right one.

But the goal is to aim for pragmatism. You don't NEED to bring in the base, it's the base for a reason. They're going to vote for the Dems. That's the whole point here. Bernie brought in additional coalitions that would effectively pad the numbers to make for a safe win assuming the base didn't abandon ship and I haven't seen any data that suggests the base would have done that if Bernie won. Biden brought in...nothing...he just won out with the same voters who were always gonna show up to a general election and vote blue anyway.

I don't disagree. What you are saying makes sense if the Dems just sit in a room and decide on a candidate without any voter interaction, from a pure potential activation standpoint.I just don't think it is worth much to apply general election strategy if you can't win the primary.

You need to win the base to win the primary. That is basically who the primary is for.