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2020 NBA Draft Thread

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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#521 » by threrf23 » Mon Jun 1, 2020 6:36 pm

ddb wrote:
Kedrick Brown was a lottery pick. Kedrick Brown couldn't dribble, pass, shoot, or score. All he had was a size and athleticism and Boston thought he could develop, but he just never did. That was a big whiff drafting him before a guy like Richard Jefferson. Scrubb is skilled. he's a smooth player. much better chance of Scrubb lasting in the league. at #30 I'd be happy with him..


2001 Scouting Report:

Strengths: Super athletic player posses a 45-inch vertical is a threat to catch ally-oops in transition ... Strong NBA ready body was strong enough in Junior College to play in the paint ... Excellent finisher on the fast break lets his athleticism take control along with his good body control ... Can create shots for himself off the dribble doesn't really need a point guard to set him up ... Creates mismatches thanks to his versatile inside outside game as he is too strong for most small forwards and to fast for power forwards ... Plays very good defense blessed with quick hands and has wonderful leaping ability making him a threat to block shots and steal the ball ... Very good rebounder due to his leaping ability which makes it very hard to keep him off the boards ... Descent passer although by no means Lamar Odom ... Shot selection is above average considering his game experience ...


https://www.thedraftreview.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1033:kedrick-brown&catid=31&Itemid=342

Jay Scrubb sounds a little bit more polished (if also less well rounded). I know these guys aren't identical, but the key question in both cases is: if this guy is so good, and has an ideal NBA body, and has top flight athleticism, why has he been such a relatively unknown commodity for so long, and why has he yet to player against stiffer competition than Juco competition?
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#522 » by Parliament10 » Wed Jun 3, 2020 4:17 pm

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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#523 » by Cuban Pete » Thu Jun 4, 2020 8:57 am

CelticsPride18 wrote:
big-shot-ROB wrote:Oh yeah, you pick Carey with a 35+ pick. At that point, it is such a crapshoot you might as well go with the player the produced in the two previous levels.


Killian Tillie would be a better choice with a 2nd round pick.


What scares me about Carey is his weight. Heavy players don't last unless you manage their minutes. That's why Daniel Theis and Brandon Clarke are great examples of modern NBA bigs. I'll take lanky/wiry/spry over big and heavy.

Tillie is a senior and his poor rebounding rates scare me. He should be dominating. Outside of that, he can pass, has quick hands, and is a fair shooter (I like to see a better FT%). I like his teammates Drew Timme (staying) and Joel Ayayi (declared) better.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#524 » by Cuban Pete » Thu Jun 4, 2020 9:03 am

big-shot-ROB wrote:
threrf23 wrote:
big-shot-ROB wrote:


Josh is going to be a good pro. He projects to be a very solid defender, has good understanding of team defense too. All the question marks are on the offensive end. He barely has any NBA-ready skill there. He doesn't have a great first step, can't finish at the rim, doesn't project to be able to create for himself regularly, very very streaky shooter right now.


In terms of stats, strengths, and weaknesses, guy seems similar to Corey Brewer.

No?

Brewer was skinnier...


And longer I think. Something like Shabazz Muhammad or Josh Okogie would look a lot like Josh Green if he doesn't improve in any areas.


Green's shooting isn't great. I look for an 8 3pt att/100 pos minimum and at least 80% FT. He falls short on both categories. Other than that, he checks the other boxes: Ast%, DRB%, Steal%. Might be worth the gamble at the upper 2nd to end of first round.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#525 » by Cuban Pete » Thu Jun 4, 2020 9:08 am

CelticsPride18 wrote:
Celts17Pride wrote:
ddb wrote:
I'm all for trading out for a vet...but if Danny drafts the #1 target with the Memphis pick or via trade up is Nesmith. Would be a luxury to have an athletic sharpshooting wing coming off the bench.

I personally like Maledon, Nesmith or Vassell with the 17th pick. Get someone to pair with Smart off the bench. Play one of Brown, Tatum or Hayward with Smart and the draft pick. 3+ good offensive players at all times.

Also competition for Langford to improve his game in order to get playing time.

Ainge most likely will make a trade(s). Celtics will have too many players that are NBA caliber


Nesmith is the perfect fit for the bench. Doesn’t need the ball in hands and allows Langford and Smart to be the main ball handlers off the bench.


Nesmith won't last the top ten. I have him going in the top five. Langford is bad. Don't expect him to contribute anything significant.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#526 » by Cuban Pete » Thu Jun 4, 2020 9:58 am

threrf23 wrote:
Cuban Pete wrote: That said, NEVER look at 3pt% at the college level. If you want to accurately judge shooting among wing prospects, look for FT% and 3pt attempts per 100 pos (min of 8). All of the best shooters in the NBA have great FT% and lots of 3pt attempts. College 3s are different from NCAA and 3pt% alone doesn't translate into the NBA. IMO, shooting is 90% of the sport in the NBA. Team eFG% has a strong correlation to winning in the NBA.


The best three point shooters also tend to be good if not elite free throw shooters, but it doesn't always work the other way around, and there are always exceptions. Paul Pierce for example was a 60% FT shooter his freshman year. Joe Harris shot 64% from the line his senior year, 72% over his four years. Paul George, Kawhi, Kerry Kittles, Jason Kapono? Around 70% freshman year. Marvin Williams, Francisco Garcia, Ben McLemore, Robbie Hummel, Salim Stoudamire, Melo Trimble, and lots of other fringe prospects - they all shot 85% or better freshman year.


Ben McLemore wasn't a true freshman. He was a year older than his class. OTOH, there are always going to be players who check the boxes but wind up busts or disappointments. Since he's been in the league for seven seasons, he falls under the latter category.

PP was drafted in 1998. Kittles in 1996. Kapono in 2000. Since then, scouting and the NBA have changed dramatically. 3pt shots are to the NBA as the passing game is to the NFL. Today, Freshmen who put up great numbers have the highest success rate. One and done freshman are the norm in today's NBA. Today, if you are going to draft a perimeter player that lacks both of these attributes, you're rolling the dice. Keep in mind that window for development is about 3-4 years.That's why four years from now, expect Romeo Langford to be with another team (or league).

threrf23 wrote:Logic follows that a player's ability to hit non-defended shots in practice or from the free throw line speaks little to his ability to hit shots in real game situations.


FT% is a great indicator of shooting mechanics and translates well into the NBA.

threrf23 wrote: If I am going to nitpick you more - three pointers made per minute or possession tells us more than three pointer taken. Obviously. 3 Point % is clearly meaningful too, even if it means little without quantity. And while the college 3 might be shorter than the NBA 3, many if not most underclassmen lack the lower body strength they need to hit consistently hit the NBA three.


The number of 3pt attempts is highly significant. It shows the confidence and comfort level of the shooter. That's why I dislike Brad Wannamaker. He can do everything except take shots and at age 30, he's not going to improve. As for lower body strength, that's conditioning. That's why all talented underclassmen should bolt for the NBA asap and get into a real professional program.

threrf23 wrote:Lessons I've learned in NCAA statistical analysis: upperclassmen who can drain the trey are dime a dozen, underclassmens' stats mean more, particularly where they lack an NBA body; three point shooting is a skill that players often continue to develop throughout their twenties, as long as a prospect meets a minimal threshold, there is always the potential to become a good or at least serviceable three point shooter; and in between minimal and elite thresholds, I would actually look to rebounding (relative to size and context) to better determine a player's prospects as a shooter, for the simple reason that it tends to speak to a player's true potential.

Elaborating, there are skills, like shooting for example, that players continue to develop and refine throughout their careers. But rebounding is much simpler, it merely requires effort, focus, fundamentals, instincts, awareness, etc. A player who has those things is more likely to maximize his potential across the board.


As a team stat, eFG% has the strongest correlation to winning pct. A few years ago, the Cs thought that they could get by the Cavs with rebounding and defense. In games 3 and 4 of that series, nearly half the team fouled out and Cs were crushed both games. Their lack of shooting buried them in game 7. eFG% and DRB% are the most important stats. The latter is where bigs come into play.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#527 » by SmartWentCrazy » Thu Jun 4, 2020 1:20 pm

Cuban Pete wrote:
CelticsPride18 wrote:
Celts17Pride wrote:I personally like Maledon, Nesmith or Vassell with the 17th pick. Get someone to pair with Smart off the bench. Play one of Brown, Tatum or Hayward with Smart and the draft pick. 3+ good offensive players at all times.

Also competition for Langford to improve his game in order to get playing time.

Ainge most likely will make a trade(s). Celtics will have too many players that are NBA caliber


Nesmith is the perfect fit for the bench. Doesn’t need the ball in hands and allows Langford and Smart to be the main ball handlers off the bench.


Nesmith won't last the top ten. I have him going in the top five. Langford is bad. Don't expect him to contribute anything significant.


I know that Nesmith hit several of the marks you referenced, but be wary of his small sample size. 14 games could easily be a hot run.

He has a few pretty alarming red flags, IMO. He was allergic to passing the ball, which is frightening given how often it was in his hands. He also was dreadful at finishing at the rim [55.8%]. His entire pro future depends on his ability to make jumpers, and I wouldnt be confident in using a 14 game sample as the basis for spending a top 5 pick on the player.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#528 » by themoneyteam2 » Thu Jun 4, 2020 3:14 pm

Cuban Pete wrote:
CelticsPride18 wrote:
Celts17Pride wrote:I personally like Maledon, Nesmith or Vassell with the 17th pick. Get someone to pair with Smart off the bench. Play one of Brown, Tatum or Hayward with Smart and the draft pick. 3+ good offensive players at all times.

Also competition for Langford to improve his game in order to get playing time.

Ainge most likely will make a trade(s). Celtics will have too many players that are NBA caliber


Nesmith is the perfect fit for the bench. Doesn’t need the ball in hands and allows Langford and Smart to be the main ball handlers off the bench.


Nesmith won't last the top ten. I have him going in the top five. Langford is bad. Don't expect him to contribute anything significant.


Nesmith top 5? Would love to put a wager on that lol. I am confident saying there's a less than 5% chance he goes top 5.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#529 » by hugepatsfan » Thu Jun 4, 2020 3:48 pm

Looking at past and current PGs that have thrived with Stevens, I really think Kira Lewis Jr. would be the best pick we could make. That's a guy that IMO can play in a manner similar to how IT/Kemba have played on offense but who should be better on the defensive end.

When you consider the roster crunch moving up makes a lot of sense and I think that's the guy to do it for. I'd be fine trading #26/#30 for a pick in the ~#20 range and then #17+#20 for a lottery pick to get Lewis Jr.

Walker / Lewis Jr..... (Waters / Edwards)
Brown / Langford
Hayward / Smart
Tatum / G. Williams.... (Ojeleye)
Theis / Kanter / R. Williams.... (Poirier)

I wouldn't be at all upset if that was the roster next year, with Tacko and our second round pick (#46) as the two-way deals.

It's not flashy moves, I get it. But with good internal development I think that team looks awesome.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#530 » by hugepatsfan » Thu Jun 4, 2020 3:54 pm

Cuban Pete wrote:
CelticsPride18 wrote:
Celts17Pride wrote:I personally like Maledon, Nesmith or Vassell with the 17th pick. Get someone to pair with Smart off the bench. Play one of Brown, Tatum or Hayward with Smart and the draft pick. 3+ good offensive players at all times.

Also competition for Langford to improve his game in order to get playing time.

Ainge most likely will make a trade(s). Celtics will have too many players that are NBA caliber


Nesmith is the perfect fit for the bench. Doesn’t need the ball in hands and allows Langford and Smart to be the main ball handlers off the bench.


Nesmith won't last the top ten. I have him going in the top five. Langford is bad. Don't expect him to contribute anything significant.


Eh, top 5 seems aggressive but wouldn't shock me either. Number of factors:

1) Overall weak class without tons of projectable stars. Makes a team more likely to target a specific role player.
2) Seemingly high number of teams picking in the lottery but still having aspirations to push for the playoffs next year (GS, ATL, WAS, POR, NO, MIN, PHX). These teams might be particularly inclined to target a role player they feel good about projecting rather than an upside project.
3) Nesmith has one specific projectable skill that's in hugh demand (shooting). Makes him a fit nearly everywhere.

Depending on how the lottery order shakes out, I could see him definitely sneaking into the top 10. Top 5 is probably high but wouldn't shock me if the right team(s) land there.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#531 » by hugepatsfan » Thu Jun 4, 2020 5:04 pm

One interesting player to me is Paul Reed. I think he could grow into a Daniel Theis type player. Theis will play his age 28 season next year and then become a FA. Kanter is likely to pick up his player option and then become a FA as well. Even if Robert Williams takes the huge steps we all want him to, future frontcourt depth on the roster beyond next season would be nice to have. We're going to have luxury tax considerations to make after next season. Theis is in line for a MLE type contract that might be tough for us to match. A guy like Paul Reed could maybe be ready to step into that role with a year of learning the system next year.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#532 » by thebirdman » Thu Jun 4, 2020 5:20 pm

I wanted Nesmith at 17 but it look like he won`t be there...but finally having a great shooter off the bench would be a huge upgrade for this team...at 26 or 30 I want Paul Reed...
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#533 » by ConstableGeneva » Thu Jun 4, 2020 5:54 pm

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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#534 » by themoneyteam2 » Thu Jun 4, 2020 7:21 pm

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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#535 » by ConstableGeneva » Thu Jun 4, 2020 8:03 pm

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If it falls on 14, it would be the 5th time Celtics draft 14th in NBA history. Romeo Langford (2019) was the most recent one.
If it falls on 17, it would be the 7th time Celtics draft 17th in NBA history. James Young (2014) was the most recent one.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#536 » by Parliament10 » Thu Jun 4, 2020 8:11 pm

ConstableGeneva wrote:
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If it falls on 14, it would be the 5th time Celtics draft 14th in NBA history. Romeo Langford (2019) was the most recent one.
If it falls on 17, it would be the 7th time Celtics draft 17th in NBA history. James Young (2014) was the most recent one.

14, would be a nice upgrade.
Especially with a chance to move up, however remote.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#537 » by ConstableGeneva » Thu Jun 4, 2020 8:27 pm

If MEM pick moves up to top 4, pick does not convey. It's top-6 protected.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#538 » by hugepatsfan » Thu Jun 4, 2020 8:29 pm

Projected order right now is:

14 Portland
15 Orlando
16 Minnesota (from BRK)
17 Boston (from Memphis)

Portland very much needs a 3&D wing. Orlando could use a a scoring guard. Minnesota could use a 3&D wing, a backup PG or a big man next to Towns for when he plays PF.

All of those are needs for us. Jumping any of those teams would be huge for us just to get ahead of any of those teams for a certain player.

Moving up even a few spots makes moving up a few spots further than that more realistic too. Getting from 14 to 10 is a lot easier than 17 to 10. So overall it would be very, very beneficial to us.

Also a shot that if MEM got into the lottery they mess around and win it. That pushes the pick next year to a better draft. But then there's the risk Memphis really breaks out and takes a step forward (also the risk they fall back or get passed by other teams next year as well).
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#539 » by Parliament10 » Thu Jun 4, 2020 8:32 pm

ConstableGeneva wrote:If MEM pick moves up to top 4, pick does not convey. It's top-6 protected.

That's true too.
If it hit's the Top 4, then we wait 'til next season, when it's unprotected.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#540 » by 31to6 » Fri Jun 5, 2020 2:59 am

The MEM pick died when they got the 2nd pick and Morant turned out to be really impactful.

I hope we draft one of the biggish (not heavy) guys in this draft with it.

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