Official MMA discussion thread pt 2: UFC 268 in MSG Usman vs Colby 2, Rose vs Zhang 2

[HarthorneWingo]

Woodley vs. Burns yo

[HarthorneWingo]

What exchange early from Burns and Woodley

[HarthorneWingo]

Nice job by Gilbert Burns. He dominated Woodley. Tyron is getting up there but maybe it was rust? Thoughts?

[j4remi]

Nice job by Gilbert Burns. He dominated Woodley. Tyron is getting up there but maybe it was rust? Thoughts?

Really great performance and a bit of a disappointing one from Woodley. I really like Woodley but this is feeling like a case where MMA has figured him out and he needs to retool a bit. I think Anthony Pettis is my standout example of this. He went from highlight reels over ranked opponents to 5-8 faster than you can say Rafael Dos Anos. For a while there, he looked a bit lost while he was trying to figure out how to adjust to fighters knowing his weaknesses. He's still no where near his peak, but even his losses are more competitive these days while still facing elite guys.

That's where I think Tyron Woodley is. You have to be extremely good to beat him even knowing the blueprint, but I think he's been mostly figured out. He's no pushover for anybody, but I think he's gonna struggle with the best guys until he can figure out a way to mask his power punches other than slip and counter.

Also, Burns is really really good. Even better on the feet than I'd thought and a stud on the ground (the Maia fight doesn't count because it's Maia )

[j4remi]

UFC 250 is tomorrow fam and it's a card that went from "nobody cares" to "don't sleep on this" in a two week span. The main card seemed like it popped up out of now where and it includes two high ranking fights for one of the most intriguing divisions in the UFC (Featherweight). The best female fighter in UFC history is fighting in the main event and a hype exciting prospect is setting the card off. This is a good one fam, thoughts and picks:

O'Malley vs Wineland: This is a really nice progression for O'Malley from fighting prospects to fighting a cagey vet on his way out. I've posted about O'Malley a LOT, he's got power and precision with a ton of length and variety in his striking. He took a banned substance suspension and tightened up his grappling a LOT. His opponent, Eddie Wineland, once fought Renan Barao for the title, that's the caliber he was back in the day. Wineland has really good hands and power, but his defense relies on toughness more than elusiveness.

What Eddie brings to the table to make this interesting is almost 40 fights of experience. He's been in there with every type of fighter and it shows. Even in recent losses, he's made good guys like John Dodson and Alejandro Perez work for decisions. If O'Malley has a hole in his game, a vet like Wineland might be able to pick it out. That said, yall know I'm on the hype train for O'Malley heavy. I think he puts Wineland away and lines up a ranked opponent next.

Magny vs Martin: This is a bit of a slept on fight on the card. Tony Rocco Martin's record might fool you, he's been in the UFC since he was a 24 year old prospect and has grown from a lot of past losses. His last two defeats are tough split decisions. Neil Magny has been a fixture in the bottom half of the UFC WW rankings for almost as long though he lost his place off of inactivity and Conor McGregor inexplicably making the list at 170 lbs.

I won't OD on the styles here except to say that Rocco Martin is very much the modern MMA fighter; he's super well rounded with a BJJ black belt and sharp striking. Magny builds his game around high level grappling and length for his striking. Martin's two close losses were both to grappling based fighters which is a concern here, although he's a guy I'm always keeping an eye on for growth. He's got the tools to beat Magny, but I swear Neil Magny requires a high level performance to get past on any given night. Magny's more proven for sure.

Sterling vs Sandhagen: This is the best fight on the card imo. Both of these guys are good enough to be fighting for the Featherweight title instead of Jose Aldo. The winner should get the next shot at the title point blank.

Sterling has run off four straight wins over high ranked opponents behind great grappling and massive growth as a striker. His length gives everyone issues and when you start to try and force your way in...he changes levels and takes you to the mat where he's one of the best in the division.

Sandhagen is coming off an absolute clinic over Rafael Assuncao; a guy with wins over TJ Dillashaw, Marlon Moraes and yes...Aljamain Sterling himself. Sandhagen is all activity, he's either feinting or punching you. He's always pressing and has a bunch of unorthodox and tricky strikes that you can't mimic with a sparring partner. He's one of the only guys I can think of at the UFC level who throws and lands multiple variations of the flying knee. A lot of guys have that in the arsenal, few use it as often or in multiple sets of circumstances.

I stress the flying knee because I think Sandhagen's pressure fighting will force Sterling to level change for space. That's an opportunity for the knees to land. I think Sterling is simply better on the ground. Sandhagen is unorthodox down there and goes for a lot of rolls and leg entanglements but I would NOT risk a fifty-fifty situation with Aljamain Sterling. Sterling should look to attack Cory's front leg as way to throw his balance off and angle into his takedowns or trips. This will tell us how far Sterling's striking really has evolved.

On picks here, this is eerily reminiscent of Gaethje/Ferguson for me. I think Sterling is the more proven guy with the right to the next shot. But I also think Sandhagen does a lot of things I expect Aljamain to struggle against. So I'm leaning toward Sandhagen since last time it backfired on me.

Garbrandt vs Assuncao: Higher name value featherweights get the co-main over the better guys, but these two should be fun to watch striking.

Garbrandt has seen the score cards twice in 14 fights. He's got incredibly sharp and fast hands but his aggression is his own worst enemy. If he gets hurt or he hurts his opponent, his technique takes a dip as he looks to land power. It's gotten him KO'ed twice now. Assuncao has seen the scorecards 10 times since joining the UFC versus 5 finishes in his fights. He's also got very fast and sharp hands but the name of his game is patience. He wants to counter you and he's willing to wait.

This has been my copout with Garbrandt for a while now. He's good enough to beat anyone (ANYONE) in the division, but he has to get out of his own way. Cody doesn't get taken down and only Moraes has striking speed comparable to his own. He's just too volatile in there for me to trust. Assuncao, especially the first time you see him, is super difficult because he'll wait you out to frustration. It's like the worst type to go against the Garbrandt we've been watching implode the last three fights.

Nunes vs Spencer: We've had some discussions about this fight before. I'm not particularly enthusiastic about it. For a condensed recap; Nunes is a natural 135 but probably hits the hardest of any female in MMA period. Spencer is a natural 145 and took a ridiculous amount of punishment in losing a decision to Cyborg, who probably hits second hardest of any female in MMA. This fight is at 145.

Let's broaden it a bit more. Nunes is a more precise and harder hitter than Cyborg, but she the explosiveness comes at the expense of her stamina. When Amanda got tired against GDR, she had to wrestle to win and she gassed fairly quickly. When she gassed against a quality grappler in Cat Zingano; she got KO'ed. So Nunes typically conserves her energy and times the explosions all with a focus on putting someone away. Spencer has never been seen moving backward though...I'm exaggerating but only slightly. She's all pressure, "hit me it doesn't matter" and she's a really good grappler.

This all sorta sells short just how good Nunes has been. I think she's hands down the greatest female fighter of all time. She's beaten every other woman in the conversation that she could fight, all by KO with the exception of Shevchenko (but she beat Valentina twice). Cyborg didn't finish Spencer, but she hurt Spencer a few times and Nunes does give off the appearance of hitting exponentially harder than even Cyborg. So all of that is to say...I placed a 5 dollar bet on Spencer to win by submission but only because it pays out over 100 dollars if it wins and we're living in the end times anyway

The Other ones to watch:
Two more fights I'm pretty excited for on the prelims -
Cody Stamman once had people favoring him over my boy Sterling. He's a super talented all around type that's explosive and has fought top tier guys. He meets Brian Kelleher who has crazy IQ and insane toughness. He lives to win wars of attrition. These guys are gonna go HAM, I like Stamman but Kelleher keeps surprising me off sheer willpower and chin alone.

Chase Hooper is 20 years old and I'd equate him to Frank Ntilikina. He is incredibly raw at virtually everything but his BJJ comes as naturally as Frank's defensive play. In 9 fights, he has 7 finishes and submitted all of his amateur opponents too. He fights Alex Caceres aka Bruce Leroy. Alex Caceres has 20 UFC fights alone and has faced a lot of high caliber opponents. He's another one of these vets with craftiness to test a guy. It's a really good test for Hooper. I think Hooper eventually gets the submission but it's not a given.


One more note: If you made it this far, much respect and thanks for the read. Also, here's a fun tidbit. Jorge Masvidal joined the group of fighters complaining about the UFC's contract offers to fight. That adds him to the list with Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou as guys who are saying "I'll fight when they pay me what I deserve" while O'Malley has also said he won't accept tougher opponents unless he's paid equal value. There are whispers that Henry Cejudo's retirement was about wanting more money too. We've seen some union pushes in the past, this could be another opportunity for that to make rounds.

[HarthorneWingo]

Nice job by Gilbert Burns. He dominated Woodley. Tyron is getting up there but maybe it was rust? Thoughts?

Really great performance and a bit of a disappointing one from Woodley. I really like Woodley but this is feeling like a case where MMA has figured him out and he needs to retool a bit. I think Anthony Pettis is my standout example of this. He went from highlight reels over ranked opponents to 5-8 faster than you can say Rafael Dos Anos. For a while there, he looked a bit lost while he was trying to figure out how to adjust to fighters knowing his weaknesses. He's still no where near his peak, but even his losses are more competitive these days while still facing elite guys.

That's where I think Tyron Woodley is. You have to be extremely good to beat him even knowing the blueprint, but I think he's been mostly figured out. He's no pushover for anybody, but I think he's gonna struggle with the best guys until he can figure out a way to mask his power punches other than slip and counter.

Also, Burns is really really good. Even better on the feet than I'd thought and a stud on the ground (the Maia fight doesn't count because it's Maia )

Tyron seemed like a worse version of himself in this fight to me. Perhaps you're right, fighters have figured him out because he certainly didn't appear to bring anything knew to the table. But also, Woodley seemed a little slower footed and appeared to hesitate on pulling the trigger on his punches and yet we have to give at least some credit to Burns who seems to keep getting better.

[HarthorneWingo]

UFC 250 is tomorrow fam and it's a card that went from "nobody cares" to "don't sleep on this" in a two week span. The main card seemed like it popped up out of now where and it includes two high ranking fights for one of the most intriguing divisions in the UFC (Featherweight). The best female fighter in UFC history is fighting in the main event and a hype exciting prospect is setting the card off. This is a good one fam, thoughts and picks:

O'Malley vs Wineland: This is a really nice progression for O'Malley from fighting prospects to fighting a cagey vet on his way out. I've posted about O'Malley a LOT, he's got power and precision with a ton of length and variety in his striking. He took a banned substance suspension and tightened up his grappling a LOT. His opponent, Eddie Wineland, once fought Renan Barao for the title, that's the caliber he was back in the day. Wineland has really good hands and power, but his defense relies on toughness more than elusiveness.

What Eddie brings to the table to make this interesting is almost 40 fights of experience. He's been in there with every type of fighter and it shows. Even in recent losses, he's made good guys like John Dodson and Alejandro Perez work for decisions. If O'Malley has a hole in his game, a vet like Wineland might be able to pick it out. That said, yall know I'm on the hype train for O'Malley heavy. I think he puts Wineland away and lines up a ranked opponent next.

Magny vs Martin: This is a bit of a slept on fight on the card. Tony Rocco Martin's record might fool you, he's been in the UFC since he was a 24 year old prospect and has grown from a lot of past losses. His last two defeats are tough split decisions. Neil Magny has been a fixture in the bottom half of the UFC WW rankings for almost as long though he lost his place off of inactivity and Conor McGregor inexplicably making the list at 170 lbs.

I won't OD on the styles here except to say that Rocco Martin is very much the modern MMA fighter; he's super well rounded with a BJJ black belt and sharp striking. Magny builds his game around high level grappling and length for his striking. Martin's two close losses were both to grappling based fighters which is a concern here, although he's a guy I'm always keeping an eye on for growth. He's got the tools to beat Magny, but I swear Neil Magny requires a high level performance to get past on any given night. Magny's more proven for sure.

Sterling vs Sandhagen: This is the best fight on the card imo. Both of these guys are good enough to be fighting for the Featherweight title instead of Jose Aldo. The winner should get the next shot at the title point blank.

Sterling has run off four straight wins over high ranked opponents behind great grappling and massive growth as a striker. His length gives everyone issues and when you start to try and force your way in...he changes levels and takes you to the mat where he's one of the best in the division.

Sandhagen is coming off an absolute clinic over Rafael Assuncao; a guy with wins over TJ Dillashaw, Marlon Moraes and yes...Aljamain Sterling himself. Sandhagen is all activity, he's either feinting or punching you. He's always pressing and has a bunch of unorthodox and tricky strikes that you can't mimic with a sparring partner. He's one of the only guys I can think of at the UFC level who throws and lands multiple variations of the flying knee. A lot of guys have that in the arsenal, few use it as often or in multiple sets of circumstances.

I stress the flying knee because I think Sandhagen's pressure fighting will force Sterling to level change for space. That's an opportunity for the knees to land. I think Sterling is simply better on the ground. Sandhagen is unorthodox down there and goes for a lot of rolls and leg entanglements but I would NOT risk a fifty-fifty situation with Aljamain Sterling. Sterling should look to attack Cory's front leg as way to throw his balance off and angle into his takedowns or trips. This will tell us how far Sterling's striking really has evolved.

On picks here, this is eerily reminiscent of Gaethje/Ferguson for me. I think Sterling is the more proven guy with the right to the next shot. But I also think Sandhagen does a lot of things I expect Aljamain to struggle against. So I'm leaning toward Sandhagen since last time it backfired on me.

Garbrandt vs Assuncao: Higher name value featherweights get the co-main over the better guys, but these two should be fun to watch striking.

Garbrandt has seen the score cards twice in 14 fights. He's got incredibly sharp and fast hands but his aggression is his own worst enemy. If he gets hurt or he hurts his opponent, his technique takes a dip as he looks to land power. It's gotten him KO'ed twice now. Assuncao has seen the scorecards 10 times since joining the UFC versus 5 finishes in his fights. He's also got very fast and sharp hands but the name of his game is patience. He wants to counter you and he's willing to wait.

This has been my copout with Garbrandt for a while now. He's good enough to beat anyone (ANYONE) in the division, but he has to get out of his own way. Cody doesn't get taken down and only Moraes has striking speed comparable to his own. He's just too volatile in there for me to trust. Assuncao, especially the first time you see him, is super difficult because he'll wait you out to frustration. It's like the worst type to go against the Garbrandt we've been watching implode the last three fights.

Nunes vs Spencer: We've had some discussions about this fight before. I'm not particularly enthusiastic about it. For a condensed recap; Nunes is a natural 135 but probably hits the hardest of any female in MMA period. Spencer is a natural 145 and took a ridiculous amount of punishment in losing a decision to Cyborg, who probably hits second hardest of any female in MMA. This fight is at 145.

Let's broaden it a bit more. Nunes is a more precise and harder hitter than Cyborg, but she the explosiveness comes at the expense of her stamina. When Amanda got tired against GDR, she had to wrestle to win and she gassed fairly quickly. When she gassed against a quality grappler in Cat Zingano; she got KO'ed. So Nunes typically conserves her energy and times the explosions all with a focus on putting someone away. Spencer has never been seen moving backward though...I'm exaggerating but only slightly. She's all pressure, "hit me it doesn't matter" and she's a really good grappler.

This all sorta sells short just how good Nunes has been. I think she's hands down the greatest female fighter of all time. She's beaten every other woman in the conversation that she could fight, all by KO with the exception of Shevchenko (but she beat Valentina twice). Cyborg didn't finish Spencer, but she hurt Spencer a few times and Nunes does give off the appearance of hitting exponentially harder than even Cyborg. So all of that is to say...I placed a 5 dollar bet on Spencer to win by submission but only because it pays out over 100 dollars if it wins and we're living in the end times anyway

The Other ones to watch:
Two more fights I'm pretty excited for on the prelims -
Cody Stamman once had people favoring him over my boy Sterling. He's a super talented all around type that's explosive and has fought top tier guys. He meets Brian Kelleher who has crazy IQ and insane toughness. He lives to win wars of attrition. These guys are gonna go HAM, I like Stamman but Kelleher keeps surprising me off sheer willpower and chin alone.

Chase Hooper is 20 years old and I'd equate him to Frank Ntilikina. He is incredibly raw at virtually everything but his BJJ comes as naturally as Frank's defensive play. In 9 fights, he has 7 finishes and submitted all of his amateur opponents too. He fights Alex Caceres aka Bruce Leroy. Alex Caceres has 20 UFC fights alone and has faced a lot of high caliber opponents. He's another one of these vets with craftiness to test a guy. It's a really good test for Hooper. I think Hooper eventually gets the submission but it's not a given.


One more note: If you made it this far, much respect and thanks for the read. Also, here's a fun tidbit. Jorge Masvidal joined the group of fighters complaining about the UFC's contract offers to fight. That adds him to the list with Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou as guys who are saying "I'll fight when they pay me what I deserve" while O'Malley has also said he won't accept tougher opponents unless he's paid equal value. There are whispers that Henry Cejudo's retirement was about wanting more money too. We've seen some union pushes in the past, this could be another opportunity for that to make rounds.

Is Sterling still training out of Matt Serra's gym here on LI?

If you blow on Eddie Vineland he bleeds. Dude has so much scar tissue on his face and ears. I can't believe he's still fighting. Him and Diego have to be the oldest.

Dana's gonna start an Old-Timers Tournament. You know it. lol

[j4remi]

Is Sterling still training out of Matt Serra's gym here on LI?

If you blow on Eddie Vineland he bleeds. Dude has so much scar tissue on his face and ears. I can't believe he's still fighting. Him and Diego have to be the oldest.

Dana's gonna start an Old-Timers Tournament. You know it. lol

Sterling is still with the Serra/Luongo camp yes and I rate them some of the better coaches in the game. I'm kinda hype just to hear them work the corner and see how they are on adjustments (will they have to censor Matt Serra should be a prop bet )

Eddie's def one of the OG's, seen more wars than an aged viking. It's crazy to think he made Yair Rodriguez work for 3 rounds.

True story on the Old-Timers tip; I had an ancient article where I said promotions should set up legends divisions. Bellator basically started doing it. Now we're seeing the UFC flirt with that by putting Rua vs Big Nog and the recent Werdum vs Oleinik...though Werdum gets Gustaffson next so maybe not so much . I do love the idea though. I've seen a lot of my favorite guys age to regression and then have the UFC trot them out as a way to prop up prospects with easy wins over recognizable names. Every time BJ Penn steps in the octagon, I have to leave the room at this point.

[Manhattan Project]

O'Malley is just a problem man. Just give me O'Malley vs Sterling man, that's the fight the fans want. It's gonna happen eventually, couldn't care less about the Yan/Aldo match. Just like that Cody 2.0 looks damn impressive. Bantamweight fights tonight were just awesome.

[islanders11040]

Read on Twitter

Sooooooo good

[Tron Carter]

O'Malley is just a problem man. Just give me O'Malley vs Sterling man, that's the fight the fans want. It's gonna happen eventually, couldn't care less about the Yan/Aldo match. Just like that Cody 2.0 looks damn impressive. Bantamweight fights tonight were just awesome.

Sterling is fighting for the belt next. O’Malley needs a ranked opponent for sure, but not the #1 contender

[Manhattan Project]

O'Malley is just a problem man. Just give me O'Malley vs Sterling man, that's the fight the fans want. It's gonna happen eventually, couldn't care less about the Yan/Aldo match. Just like that Cody 2.0 looks damn impressive. Bantamweight fights tonight were just awesome.

Sterling is fighting for the belt next. O’Malley needs a ranked opponent for sure, but not the #1 contender

It won't happen next fight, but these two seem like they can be running the division very shortly. Sterling without a doubt earns the title fight, just saying O'Malley will be fighting him soon enough at this rate.

[j4remi]

O'Malley is just a problem man. Just give me O'Malley vs Sterling man, that's the fight the fans want. It's gonna happen eventually, couldn't care less about the Yan/Aldo match. Just like that Cody 2.0 looks damn impressive. Bantamweight fights tonight were just awesome.

Sterling is fighting for the belt next. O’Malley needs a ranked opponent for sure, but not the #1 contender

It won't happen next fight, but these two seem like they can be running the division very shortly. Sterling without a doubt earns the title fight, just saying O'Malley will be fighting him soon enough at this rate.

Bantamweight is such a stacked division. We're watching a bunch of guys grow all at once, it's an arms race, straight up.
You've got Moraes, Yan and Sterling. Then Aldo, Garbrandt, Munhoz and Sandhagen. Then you've got the prospects Cody Stamman, Song Yadong and Sean O'Malley. Those are the stand outs to me but there's still plenty of praise for Rivera, Cruz, Font and Assuncao.

Top to bottom they're great. I want O'Malley to fight one of the other prospects, preferably Yadong because I think Stamman has earned a higher ranked opponent next. Sterling HAS to get the winner of Aldo/Yan. Then the fight I REALLY want to see is this version of Cody Garbrandt meeting Marlon Moraes. That'd be my most anticipated fight in the division.

[HarthorneWingo]

Read on Twitter

Sooooooo good

What a fake out.

[HarthorneWingo]

So Gilbert Burns v. Usman at UFC 251?

[j4remi]

We've got some pretty good fights on an unassuming card tomorrow.

Blaydes vs Volkov is a fight between two legitimate top 10 HW talents.

Josh Emmett vs Shane Burgos is two of the better strikers, both heavily built through boxing and wrestling fundamentals. That should be a serious scrap.

Belala Muhammad vs Lyman Good is sneaky good. Two guys that could flirt with the rankings and have well rounded games.

Then Cortney Casey vs Gillian Roberts should be fun as well with Modaffieri vs Murphy offering two of the higher ranked 125 women in a match-up that could line one up for a match with Calvillo.

Not half bad fam.

[HarthorneWingo]

We've got some pretty good fights on an unassuming card tomorrow.

Blaydes vs Volkov is a fight between two legitimate top 10 HW talents.

Josh Emmett vs Shane Burgos is two of the better strikers, both heavily built through boxing and wrestling fundamentals. That should be a serious scrap.

Belala Muhammad vs Lyman Good is sneaky good. Two guys that could flirt with the rankings and have well rounded games.

Then Cortney Casey vs Gillian Roberts should be fun as well with Modaffieri vs Murphy offering two of the higher ranked 125 women in a match-up that could line one up for a match with Calvillo.

Not half bad fam.

Live sports! Let's go.

[HarthorneWingo]

Emmett bs Burgos!

[j4remi]

Emmett bs Burgos!

Absolutely fantastic fight. Give those men their bonus money!

[HarthorneWingo]

I

Emmett bs Burgos!

Absolutely fantastic fight. Give those men their bonus money!

Yep. Move both fights up the rankings. I thought the injury to Emmett was going to do him in but he showed lots of heart to come back and win it.

Who you see them each fighting next?