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OT: COVID-19 thread #2

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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #2 

Post#1441 » by molepharmer » Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:52 am

Dresden wrote:WHO clarifies comments on asymptomatic spread of coronavirus

Anne Gulland
,The Telegraph•June 9, 2020

...However, after experts called her comments into question she told a live question and answer session the following day that her comments on asymptomatic spread were based on small number of studies of contact tracing and cluster investigations. She added that modelling estimates suggest that up to 40 per cent of transmission was by asymptomatic carriers.

...Some scientists expressed surprise at Dr Van Kerkhove's initial comments.

Liam Smeeth, professor of clinical epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said evidence so far suggests that asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic are an "important source of infection to others".

"There remains scientific uncertainty, but asymptomatic infection could be around 30 per cent to 50 per cent of cases. The best scientific studies to date suggest that up to half of cases became infected from asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic people," he said.

https://news.yahoo.com/true-asymptomatic-spread-coronavirus-rare-103749400.html

Here's a link to a vid from yesterday's Q & A with Drs Van Kerkhove and Ryan. In the first 5-6 min Dr Van Kerkhove clarifies her response from the previous day that seemed to stir things up wrt asymptomatic transmission. A simple misunderstanding, not nearly as nefarious as journalists would have you believe.



Not a whole lot of specific information provided in the 43 min. But that simply underscores how little we know about Covid-19 and why they speak in generalities.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #2 

Post#1442 » by Dresden » Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:04 pm

molepharmer wrote:
Dresden wrote:WHO clarifies comments on asymptomatic spread of coronavirus

Anne Gulland
,The Telegraph•June 9, 2020

...However, after experts called her comments into question she told a live question and answer session the following day that her comments on asymptomatic spread were based on small number of studies of contact tracing and cluster investigations. She added that modelling estimates suggest that up to 40 per cent of transmission was by asymptomatic carriers.

...Some scientists expressed surprise at Dr Van Kerkhove's initial comments.

Liam Smeeth, professor of clinical epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said evidence so far suggests that asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic are an "important source of infection to others".

"There remains scientific uncertainty, but asymptomatic infection could be around 30 per cent to 50 per cent of cases. The best scientific studies to date suggest that up to half of cases became infected from asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic people," he said.

https://news.yahoo.com/true-asymptomatic-spread-coronavirus-rare-103749400.html

Here's a link to a vid from yesterday's Q & A with Drs Van Kerkhove and Ryan. In the first 5-6 min Dr Van Kerkhove clarifies her response from the previous day that seemed to stir things up wrt asymptomatic transmission. A simple misunderstanding, not nearly as nefarious as journalists would have you believe.



Not a whole lot of specific information provided in the 43 min. But that simply underscores how little we know about Covid-19 and why they speak in generalities.


And why it's been so difficult for the CDC or WHO to come up with recommendations as to what people should or should not be doing.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #2 

Post#1443 » by Dresden » Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:24 pm

Not out of the woods yet:

According to The Washington Post, which has been tracking data, 14 states and Puerto Rico have “recorded their highest-ever seven day average of new coronavirus cases since the pandemic began.” Since the beginning of June, this increase in cases has impacted the following states: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Kentucky, New Mexico, North Carolina, Mississippi, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah. Worst of all, The Post reports that “the highest percentage of new cases are coming from places with much smaller populations,” which puts a massive strain on their medical infrastructures. Small towns like the mentioned Lincoln County, Oregon, have fewer hospitals and resources and may not be well-equipped to deal with a sudden surge in COVID-19 cases.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #2 

Post#1444 » by Dresden » Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:34 pm

California health official resigns after receiving threats

SANTA ANA, Calif. (AP) — The health officer for Southern California's Orange County has resigned after receiving threats over her order for residents to wear face coverings when near others in public to protect against the coronavirus.
Dr. Nichole Quick resigned unexpectedly Monday from a job where she worked 80-hour weeks and faced threats at a public meeting and on social media, said Frank Kim, the county's executive officer.
...
Quick is the seventh senior health official to resign in California since the pandemic began, and health officials have been facing unprecedented pressure, criticism and threats, said Kat DeBurgh, executive director of the Health Officers Association of California.


This is why is saddens me when people recklessly criticize our public health officials and agencies. Yes, they make mistakes, but they are also working under extreme pressure, and trying to make policy that will affect the lives and welfares of millions of people, while the science is still very much unknown and constantly evolving. Almost all of them are hard working, dedicated people who could most likely be making a lot more money doing something else. So when people say things like monkeys could do just as good of a job, I think it's really misinformed.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #2 

Post#1445 » by Dez » Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:45 pm

Australia taking a significant step today, the AFL (our national sport) returns tonight. Given the different the different restrictions in each state some games will actually have limited crowds in attendance.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #2 

Post#1446 » by dice » Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:50 pm

trump campaign ad takes credit for the record job creation last month...
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #2 

Post#1447 » by MrSparkle » Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:03 am

dice wrote:trump campaign ad takes credit for the record job creation last month...


:crazy:

Mentally ill campaign.

Yet it works. People buy the kool-aid. :lol:
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #2 

Post#1448 » by dice » Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:17 am

MrSparkle wrote:
dice wrote:trump campaign ad takes credit for the record job creation last month...


:crazy:

Mentally ill campaign.

Yet it works. People buy the kool-aid. :lol:

they're also apparently running it on fox news in DC. not to convince DC voters, obviously, but so trump can see it and feel better during his hours of daily TV viewing
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #2 

Post#1449 » by dice » Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:32 am

historical increases in mortality due to tragic events:

627% - oct 1918 spanish flu - philly
585% - mar 2011 earthquake/tsunami - miyagi, japan
567% - mar 2020 COVID-19 - bergamo, italy
483% - apr 2020 COVID-19 - NYC
357% - mar/apr 2020 COVID-19 - madrid
299% - apr 2020 COVID-19 - lima, peru

297% - oct 1918 spanish flu - NYC

142% - aug 2005 hurricane katrina - new orleans
100% - aug 2003 heat wave - paris
99% - aug 1957 flu season - santiago, chile
61% - sept 11, 2001 - NYC
31% - july 1995 heat wave - chicago
29% - fall 2017 hurricane maria - puerto rico
25% - jan 2017 flu season - seattle
15% - sept 1995 HIV/AIDS crisis - NYC
1% - aug 2016 wave of homicides - chicago
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #2 

Post#1450 » by dice » Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:43 am

Image

new cases in IL have plummeted over the past 2+ weeks. hopefully re-openings and summer gatherings don't markedly hamper that progress

cases thus far in states that are currently increasing (20 states): 0.5 million
cases thus far in states that are currently in decline (24 states): 1.3 million
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #2 

Post#1451 » by MrSparkle » Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:48 am

dice wrote:historical increases in mortality due to tragic events:

627% - oct 1918 spanish flu - philly
585% - mar 2011 earthquake/tsunami - miyagi, japan
567% - mar 2020 COVID-19 - bergamo, italy
483% - apr 2020 COVID-19 - NYC
357% - mar/apr 2020 COVID-19 - madrid
299% - apr 2020 COVID-19 - lima, peru

297% - oct 1918 spanish flu - NYC

142% - aug 2005 hurricane katrina - new orleans
100% - aug 2003 heat wave - paris
99% - aug 1957 flu season - santiago, chile
61% - sept 11, 2001 - NYC
31% - july 1995 heat wave - chicago
29% - fall 2017 hurricane maria - puerto rico
25% - jan 2017 flu season - seattle
15% - sept 1995 HIV/AIDS crisis - NYC
1% - aug 2016 wave of homicides - chicago


The concerning thing is the Spanish flu ranking at top was actually the second wave.

The other tricky thing is that there are several strains of the COVID virus, and it mutates slowly. Of course the hope is that the second wave is actually less deadly, but you really don't know. On the bright side, medicine and tech are eons beyond 1918. On the other hand, there is still no cure for the common cold.

But the frustrating thing about dumping WHO, Fauci, etc... You just don't know what's next. Anybody with a brain bigger than a peanut would do well to encourage the council of anybody with expertise. There are going to be so many other distractions this fall and winter, from the election campaign to the post-election run-off/ballot/voting challenges. Sports and businesses trying to capitalize their holiday earnings.

It could be a recipe for avoidable yet disastrous human error. Or maybe not. But it's concerning that about half (or more) of the population is okay without setting urgent precautions for what's next. This garbage about masks-violating-freedom is Idiocracy, the Reality TV version. I don't know what's so complicated about careful precaution. The idea is you minimize threat and future outbreak by ELIMINATING and isolating it to negligible 0.00001% cases. All it takes is one mask-less bozo with a mild cough who can infect a bunch of plane passengers or a section of an airport, and then a couple connection flights and a couple houses in a couple cities to restart the process.

So oh boy is the fall and holiday season with travel restrictions lifted going to be an interesting one.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #2 

Post#1452 » by dice » Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:52 am

MrSparkle wrote:
dice wrote:historical increases in mortality due to tragic events:

627% - oct 1918 spanish flu - philly
585% - mar 2011 earthquake/tsunami - miyagi, japan
567% - mar 2020 COVID-19 - bergamo, italy
483% - apr 2020 COVID-19 - NYC
357% - mar/apr 2020 COVID-19 - madrid
299% - apr 2020 COVID-19 - lima, peru

297% - oct 1918 spanish flu - NYC

142% - aug 2005 hurricane katrina - new orleans
100% - aug 2003 heat wave - paris
99% - aug 1957 flu season - santiago, chile
61% - sept 11, 2001 - NYC
31% - july 1995 heat wave - chicago
29% - fall 2017 hurricane maria - puerto rico
25% - jan 2017 flu season - seattle
15% - sept 1995 HIV/AIDS crisis - NYC
1% - aug 2016 wave of homicides - chicago


The concerning thing is the Spanish flu ranking at top was actually the second wave.

The other tricky thing is that there are several strains of the COVID virus, and it mutates slowly. Of course the hope is that the second wave is actually less deadly, but you really don't know. On the bright side, medicine and tech are eons beyond 1918. On the other hand, there is still no cure for the common cold.

the relatively slow mutation of COVID-19 is a very good thing...assuming that they come up with a vaccine
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #2 

Post#1453 » by MrSparkle » Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:59 am

dice wrote:
MrSparkle wrote:
dice wrote:historical increases in mortality due to tragic events:

627% - oct 1918 spanish flu - philly
585% - mar 2011 earthquake/tsunami - miyagi, japan
567% - mar 2020 COVID-19 - bergamo, italy
483% - apr 2020 COVID-19 - NYC
357% - mar/apr 2020 COVID-19 - madrid
299% - apr 2020 COVID-19 - lima, peru

297% - oct 1918 spanish flu - NYC

142% - aug 2005 hurricane katrina - new orleans
100% - aug 2003 heat wave - paris
99% - aug 1957 flu season - santiago, chile
61% - sept 11, 2001 - NYC
31% - july 1995 heat wave - chicago
29% - fall 2017 hurricane maria - puerto rico
25% - jan 2017 flu season - seattle
15% - sept 1995 HIV/AIDS crisis - NYC
1% - aug 2016 wave of homicides - chicago


The concerning thing is the Spanish flu ranking at top was actually the second wave.

The other tricky thing is that there are several strains of the COVID virus, and it mutates slowly. Of course the hope is that the second wave is actually less deadly, but you really don't know. On the bright side, medicine and tech are eons beyond 1918. On the other hand, there is still no cure for the common cold.

the relatively slow mutation of COVID-19 is a very good thing...assuming that they come up with a vaccine


Yeah. I keep in conversation with an ER friend. Their doctors personally debate the issue (like you said, and WHO , no one "knows" what the best hope is, they're just scenarios and predictions), but the pro of slow mutation is in regards to vaccination, the con is that the virus may continue being fatal for that 1% (or whatever number it ends up being in larger/more-accurate sample size) for a long time, especially in South American countries.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #2 

Post#1454 » by dice » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:01 am

MrSparkle wrote:
dice wrote:
MrSparkle wrote:
The concerning thing is the Spanish flu ranking at top was actually the second wave.

The other tricky thing is that there are several strains of the COVID virus, and it mutates slowly. Of course the hope is that the second wave is actually less deadly, but you really don't know. On the bright side, medicine and tech are eons beyond 1918. On the other hand, there is still no cure for the common cold.

the relatively slow mutation of COVID-19 is a very good thing...assuming that they come up with a vaccine


Yeah. I keep in conversation with an ER friend. Their doctors personally debate the issue (like you said, and WHO , no one "knows" what the best hope is, they're just scenarios and predictions), but the pro of slow mutation is in regards to vaccination, the con is that the virus may continue being fatal for that 1% (or whatever number it ends up being in larger/more-accurate sample size) for a long time, especially in South American countries.

wouldn't it be just as likely to become MORE fatal than less, though? or is the only reason we're dealing with it at all because it's on the extreme end of human impact?
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #2 

Post#1455 » by MrSparkle » Thu Jun 11, 2020 4:03 am

dice wrote:
MrSparkle wrote:
dice wrote:the relatively slow mutation of COVID-19 is a very good thing...assuming that they come up with a vaccine


Yeah. I keep in conversation with an ER friend. Their doctors personally debate the issue (like you said, and WHO , no one "knows" what the best hope is, they're just scenarios and predictions), but the pro of slow mutation is in regards to vaccination, the con is that the virus may continue being fatal for that 1% (or whatever number it ends up being in larger/more-accurate sample size) for a long time, especially in South American countries.

wouldn't it be just as likely to become MORE fatal than less, though? or is the only reason we're dealing with it at all because it's on the extreme end of human impact?


Well from what I understand based on reading and talking, it's complete chance. All of a sudden, a virus can mutate to where it begins to attack the brain, or cause blood clots, or heart disease, or respiratory. Or it could mutate into something irrelevant to the human system and antibodies overcome all major strains that pass along easily. The latter is what happens more often which is why pandemics do always come to an end eventually with quarantining and time. It's kind of random, making viruses so unpredictable.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #2 

Post#1456 » by dice » Thu Jun 11, 2020 4:27 am

MrSparkle wrote:
dice wrote:
MrSparkle wrote:
Yeah. I keep in conversation with an ER friend. Their doctors personally debate the issue (like you said, and WHO , no one "knows" what the best hope is, they're just scenarios and predictions), but the pro of slow mutation is in regards to vaccination, the con is that the virus may continue being fatal for that 1% (or whatever number it ends up being in larger/more-accurate sample size) for a long time, especially in South American countries.

wouldn't it be just as likely to become MORE fatal than less, though? or is the only reason we're dealing with it at all because it's on the extreme end of human impact?


Well from what I understand based on reading and talking, it's complete chance. All of a sudden, a virus can mutate to where it begins to attack the brain, or cause blood clots, or heart disease, or respiratory. Or it could mutate into something irrelevant to the human system and antibodies overcome all major strains that pass along easily. The latter is what happens more often which is why pandemics do always come to an end eventually with quarantining and time. It's kind of random, making viruses so unpredictable.

apparently there are nearly infinite viruses out there, w/ 320K affecting mammals but only a couple of hundred so far affecting humans. but a substantial number of the viruses affecting other mammals may be transmissible to humans
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #2 

Post#1457 » by rtblues » Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:51 pm

Apologies if this has already been mentioned here, I couldn't read all 73 pages, but this is a recent and interesting article about the virus and blood types.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/06/10/the-role-of-blood-type-in-covid-19-infection-and-respiratory-failure/#59f7e46c307e
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #2 

Post#1458 » by dice » Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:17 am

as FL is hitting new daily highs in new cases, the GOP has relocated their convention from NC to...jacksonville, which will allow a capacity crowd w/ no mask requirement
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #2 

Post#1459 » by Dresden » Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:03 am

dice wrote:as FL is hitting new daily highs in new cases, the GOP has relocated their convention from NC to...jacksonville, which will allow a capacity crowd w/ no mask requirement


Hopefully they'll be smart about how they do it, and have some events outdoors. But I doubt they will.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #2 

Post#1460 » by Ccwatercraft » Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:13 pm

Dresden wrote:Hopefully they'll be smart about how they do it, and have some events outdoors. But I doubt they will.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article243452186.html
But the number of new cases is only part of the statewide picture when it comes to determining whether we’re experiencing a second wave of COVID-19 infections. While the overall number of positive cases has spiked in the past two days, the percentage of positive COVID-19 tests — out of all the results reported in a day — has declined over the same time period, as the state provides testing to more people.


Miami/Dade also had a big backlog of thousands of tests due to equipment failures at a couple of labs in Miami, which was resolved recently.

I think statewide were over 30k tests a day on average and its running much more smoothly now according to local news. We had a couple of sites with ridiculously long delays to get results as the labs got their act together. Much of that has improved.

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