Why is Obi Toppin Not An Automatic Top 2?

[OGLife]

He reminds me a lot of Pascal Siakam. He moves so quickly with the ball and he's very strong.

It just seems strange that he doesn't get any hype yet I see him only behind Edwards.

He does some many things well which give you so many comparisons to guys you can compare as his ceiling and little options to who his floor is. I see an easy top 2 pick.

Thoughts?

[bondom34]

He's a terrible defender and an older draftee. I can't see Siakam at all, he's not mobile on defense.

[getrichordie]

One word: defense.

He will be a fine transition player and give teams problems out of P&R situations and is an awesome lob target, but his shooting is overrated, IMO. He's more of an ancillary player who is a MASSIVE liability on defense. He will hit C&S 3s at about a 36-37% clip but not at a high rate (think Ibaka). He should be sparingly useful in a small ball 5 role as well, but overall, he just relies a lot on athleticism.

Folks who have him there likely overrate his athleticism and shooting and likely overvalue his comparison to Amare Stoudemire who would be an iteration Enes Kanter/Montrezl Harrell in today's league.

[King Ken]

For me, he's tier 3.5 which is tied for 1st in this class with Anthony Edwards and LeMelo Ball.

The issue with him is the obvious flaws. The strengths are the obvious strengths

Pluses -
An elite offensive prospect- 8.5 reserved for the upperclassmen star offensive players which he is.
He got it all, the vision, passing, feel for the game, BBIQ on offense, movement skills, screening ability, shooting touch, finishing ability, explosiveness, excellent first step especially for his position, straight line handles and open court handles which is big for bigs. He got it all at the 4. Size, he's been touted by people I know within to be 6'9.5 and 230 without shoes. That he grew again before the season. He also has good instincts on the perimeter defensively with great hands and comfort on both ends.

Then the bad is... (improvement areas)
His age, even though he's an obvious late bloomer not close to his peak, we don't have a recent history of guys like him working out so it's a tough case for a lot of guys who go by modern history.
His defense while being below average at the college level is projected to be bad by everyone due to his lack of defensive tools, poor lateral quickness, a terrible defensive frame like Amar'e Stoudemire and just lacking the defensive BBIQ and mindset needed to dominate. At to the fact that he's projected to be a 4 defensively as well, he really has limitations. Even his defensive projections at the 5 is weak. Like Amar'e he is very strong physically on offense but he's kinda weak on defense like his frame is just great for one end and not the other.

While Obi is a sure thing for me because he's a 8.5 on offense with 9.5 potential on that end with three swings, he can be extremely special offensively even if the best he could ever be on defense is below average.

But if you aren't big on his offense or offensive potential and you think he is just good on offense, you are talking about a Kyle Kuzma like prospect and that's really not that valuable, especially top 10 in any draft valuable. For me, a Kuzma type is a tier 5 prospect. I can't lie, I wouldn't have taken Kuz in the 1st round or at least not in the top 25 of any draft. So it just depends on your evaluations.

For my evaluation, I love him. I think he has the world of offensive talent and potential with limited defensive impact.

Current Grade - 7.5 highest in the class. Tied with Haliburton and Hayes.
Current Offensive Grade - 8.5, highest in the class. No one else is close.
Potential Offensive Grade - 9.5, 3rd highest in the class. Behind only Ball and Edwards.

Current Defensive Grade - 5.5, While higher than a number of OADs, this number is extremely low for an upperclassman prospect which almost always has higher defensive floors due to their development on that end.
Potential Defensive Grade - 6.0, One of the lowest in the class, especially for a big. Might be the lowest-rated defensive big potential in this class that has a draftable grade.

Swings - Three swings - Shooting, playmaking, and defensive playmaking. All three could be reached at some point in his career.

I love him as a prospect but he's not someone to draft if you are looking for a 3-year RRPM and that's your kinda thing but if you are looking for an elite offensive WAR/RAPTOR/impact guy, he's a guy you really got to look at.

[King Ken]

One word: defense.

He will be a fine transition player and give teams problems out of P&R situations and is an awesome lob target, but his shooting is overrated, IMO. He's more of an ancillary player who is a MASSIVE liability on defense. He will hit C&S 3s at about a 36-37% clip but not at a high rate (think Ibaka). He should be sparingly useful in a small ball 5 role as well, but overall, he just relies a lot on athleticism.

Folks who have him there likely overrate his athleticism and shooting and likely overvalue his comparison to Amare Stoudemire who would be an iteration Enes Kanter/Montrezl Harrell in today's league.

Don't be that guy, just because you don't rate him doesn't mean you are right about this ****. You are just rating him like everyone else. He isn't getting overrated or underrated. His evaluations are going to be different from person to person, scout to scout. There is a reason why Mike Trout was a late 1st round pick and bust who never get to the majors get drafted 1st.

[getrichordie]

One word: defense.

He will be a fine transition player and give teams problems out of P&R situations and is an awesome lob target, but his shooting is overrated, IMO. He's more of an ancillary player who is a MASSIVE liability on defense. He will hit C&S 3s at about a 36-37% clip but not at a high rate (think Ibaka). He should be sparingly useful in a small ball 5 role as well, but overall, he just relies a lot on athleticism.

Folks who have him there likely overrate his athleticism and shooting and likely overvalue his comparison to Amare Stoudemire who would be an iteration Enes Kanter/Montrezl Harrell in today's league.

Don't be that guy, just because you don't rate him doesn't mean you are right about this ****. You are just rating him like everyone else. He isn't getting overrated or underrated. His evaluations are going to be different from person to person, scout to scout. There is a reason why Mike Trout was a late 1st round pick and bust who never get to the majors get drafted 1st.

I am notably lower and have even been lower on him on the past. I'm not sure what you are trying to get and I don't watch baseball.

[King Ken]

One word: defense.

He will be a fine transition player and give teams problems out of P&R situations and is an awesome lob target, but his shooting is overrated, IMO. He's more of an ancillary player who is a MASSIVE liability on defense. He will hit C&S 3s at about a 36-37% clip but not at a high rate (think Ibaka). He should be sparingly useful in a small ball 5 role as well, but overall, he just relies a lot on athleticism.

Folks who have him there likely overrate his athleticism and shooting and likely overvalue his comparison to Amare Stoudemire who would be an iteration Enes Kanter/Montrezl Harrell in today's league.

Don't be that guy, just because you don't rate him doesn't mean you are right about this ****. You are just rating him like everyone else. He isn't getting overrated or underrated. His evaluations are going to be different from person to person, scout to scout. There is a reason why Mike Trout was a late 1st round pick and bust who never get to the majors get drafted 1st.

I am notably lower and have even been lower on him on the past. I'm not sure what you are trying to get and I don't watch baseball.

Basically, if someone rates him high, that doesn't mean he's overrated or underrated. Those terms should exclusively be used for a collective player eval for the most part. It was clear, Donovan Mitchell was underrated from his evals while Ben McLemore was overrated.

[kg01]

One word: defense.

He will be a fine transition player and give teams problems out of P&R situations and is an awesome lob target, but his shooting is overrated, IMO. He's more of an ancillary player who is a MASSIVE liability on defense. He will hit C&S 3s at about a 36-37% clip but not at a high rate (think Ibaka). He should be sparingly useful in a small ball 5 role as well, but overall, he just relies a lot on athleticism.

Folks who have him there likely overrate his athleticism and shooting and likely overvalue his comparison to Amare Stoudemire who would be an iteration Enes Kanter/Montrezl Harrell in today's league.

This is more right than wrong.

[Stillwater]

I mean doing damage in the A10 is respectable enough to get him lottery looks, and he was extremely dominant suggesting he would have been pretty damn good in any conference. That being said going top 2 when you are going to be 23 years old in the middle of your rookie season suggests somebody is not confident in any younger options becoming as good and would make this class of one and dones a record breaking failure. Not saying he has not earned high respect as a prospect but I mean look at a dominant prospect from last year like Clarke in the WCC who is now 23 fell all the way to pick 21. Toppin will be a lottery pick in this weak ass draft, but normally he wouldn't go before 16.
I like him in the 6-12 range but it wouldnt surprise me if he went 17th

[clyde21]

he'll be a good scorer in the NBA i'm pretty confident in that but his peripheral game is suspect and defensively he's gonna have a tough time just being net neutral on that end, game is not super portable or scalable either

top10 guy tho just because of his speed/strength ratio and scoring potential at his size

[getrichordie]

Don't be that guy, just because you don't rate him doesn't mean you are right about this ****. You are just rating him like everyone else. He isn't getting overrated or underrated. His evaluations are going to be different from person to person, scout to scout. There is a reason why Mike Trout was a late 1st round pick and bust who never get to the majors get drafted 1st.

I am notably lower and have even been lower on him on the past. I'm not sure what you are trying to get and I don't watch baseball.

Basically, if someone rates him high, that doesn't mean he's overrated or underrated. Those terms should exclusively be used for a collective player eval for the most part. It was clear, Donovan Mitchell was underrated from his evals while Ben McLemore was overrated.

Don't want to start a squabble over semantics. Just meant I think consensus view on him is too high. Most people I've seen have him top 10. In my opinion, that's overrating/overvaluing (whatever word you want to use) his skill set transitioning to the NBA.

[OGLife]

he'll be a good scorer in the NBA i'm pretty confident in that but his peripheral game is suspect and defensively he's gonna have a tough time just being net neutral on that end, game is not super portable or scalable either

top10 guy tho just because of his speed/strength ratio and scoring potential at his size

In today's league, do all 5 of your starters have to be great defenders? Teams always value offensive impact over defense, unless you're the total package.

I'm sure a good coach can find ways to improve his defense, make it less of an issue and allow Obi to score at all 3 levels.

Reminder, he's guarding at the 4. Does his lack of defense really matter in comparison to what he can bring on offense at the 4.

[clyde21]

he'll be a good scorer in the NBA i'm pretty confident in that but his peripheral game is suspect and defensively he's gonna have a tough time just being net neutral on that end, game is not super portable or scalable either

top10 guy tho just because of his speed/strength ratio and scoring potential at his size

In today's league, do all 5 of your starters have to be great defenders? Teams always value offensive impact over defense, unless you're the total package.

I'm sure a good coach can find ways to improve his defense, make it less of an issue and allow Obi to score at all 3 levels.

Reminder, he's guarding at the 4. Does his lack of defense really matter in comparison to what he can bring on offense at the 4.

1. no one said he has to be a great defender, he's gonna struggle to even be neutral on that end

2. you can get away with a bad defensive PG on the perimeter if he's a good help defender, you can't get away or hide from one of your bigs being terrible defensively

3. and yes, of course defense at the 4 matters.

[clyde21]

and if you want to have him top 2 by all means go for it, not sure why you're expecting everyone else to eval him the same way you do and ignore his shortcomings

also, most people have him top10, which is very fair.

[OGLife]

he'll be a good scorer in the NBA i'm pretty confident in that but his peripheral game is suspect and defensively he's gonna have a tough time just being net neutral on that end, game is not super portable or scalable either

top10 guy tho just because of his speed/strength ratio and scoring potential at his size

In today's league, do all 5 of your starters have to be great defenders? Teams always value offensive impact over defense, unless you're the total package.

I'm sure a good coach can find ways to improve his defense, make it less of an issue and allow Obi to score at all 3 levels.

Reminder, he's guarding at the 4. Does his lack of defense really matter in comparison to what he can bring on offense at the 4.

1. no one said he has to be a great defender, he's gonna struggle to even be neutral on that end

2. you can get away with a bad defensive PG on the perimeter if he's a good help defender, you can't get away or hide from one of your bigs being terrible defensively

3. and yes, of course defense at the 4 matters.

I value perimeter defense moreso than post defense. I'd rather my PG be a better defender than my PF, tbh

[clyde21]

In today's league, do all 5 of your starters have to be great defenders? Teams always value offensive impact over defense, unless you're the total package.

I'm sure a good coach can find ways to improve his defense, make it less of an issue and allow Obi to score at all 3 levels.

Reminder, he's guarding at the 4. Does his lack of defense really matter in comparison to what he can bring on offense at the 4.

1. no one said he has to be a great defender, he's gonna struggle to even be neutral on that end

2. you can get away with a bad defensive PG on the perimeter if he's a good help defender, you can't get away or hide from one of your bigs being terrible defensively

3. and yes, of course defense at the 4 matters.

I value perimeter defense moreso than post defense. I'd rather my PG be a better defender than my PF, tbh

logically, statistically, anyilly way you're wrong, but ok lol

[King Ken]

1. no one said he has to be a great defender, he's gonna struggle to even be neutral on that end

2. you can get away with a bad defensive PG on the perimeter if he's a good help defender, you can't get away or hide from one of your bigs being terrible defensively

3. and yes, of course defense at the 4 matters.

I value perimeter defense moreso than post defense. I'd rather my PG be a better defender than my PF, tbh

logically, statistically, anyilly way you're wrong, but ok lol

It depends on your position but at the 4, perimeter defense is far more important as well as the ability to defend on PnRs. At the 1, defense is important but look at Kris Dunn to Trae Young. One of the worst offensive players to one of the worst defensive players while being one of the best opposite sides. Dunn is basically unstartable while Trae Young is a 21 year old All Star starter. So yes, offense is way more valuable than defense but as a big, both are equally important.

I'll rather an elite offensive player and a bad defender at the 4 over a pretty good offensive player and a below average defender all day though.

Post defense is really only critical at the 5.

[OGLife]

I value perimeter defense moreso than post defense. I'd rather my PG be a better defender than my PF, tbh

logically, statistically, anyilly way you're wrong, but ok lol

It depends on your position but at the 4, perimeter defense is far more important as well as the ability to defend on PnRs. At the 1, defense is important but look at Kris Dunn to Trae Young. One of the worst offensive players to one of the worst defensive players while being one of the best opposite sides. Dunn is basically unstartable while Trae Young is a 21 year old All Star starter. So yes, offense is way more valuable than defense but as a big, both are equally important.

I'll rather an elite offensive player and a bad defender at the 4 over a pretty good offensive player and a below average defender all day though.

Post defense is really only critical at the 5.

I feel like Toppin can be at the 4 to what Young is on offense at the 1.

I'm sorry, but I just don't see the argument as to why Toppin should be a 5, regardless of what you say about his defense.

[getrichordie]

logically, statistically, anyilly way you're wrong, but ok lol

It depends on your position but at the 4, perimeter defense is far more important as well as the ability to defend on PnRs. At the 1, defense is important but look at Kris Dunn to Trae Young. One of the worst offensive players to one of the worst defensive players while being one of the best opposite sides. Dunn is basically unstartable while Trae Young is a 21 year old All Star starter. So yes, offense is way more valuable than defense but as a big, both are equally important.

I'll rather an elite offensive player and a bad defender at the 4 over a pretty good offensive player and a below average defender all day though.

Post defense is really only critical at the 5.

I feel like Toppin can be at the 4 to what Young is on offense at the 1.

I'm sorry, but I just don't see the argument as to why Toppin should be a 5, regardless of what you say about his defense.

So what you are saying is that Toppin is going to put up a historical offensive season?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=2&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=obpm&c1comp=gt&c1val=6&c2stat=g&c2comp=gt&c2val=10&order_by=ws

Nah, dog. Just nah.

[OGLife]

It depends on your position but at the 4, perimeter defense is far more important as well as the ability to defend on PnRs. At the 1, defense is important but look at Kris Dunn to Trae Young. One of the worst offensive players to one of the worst defensive players while being one of the best opposite sides. Dunn is basically unstartable while Trae Young is a 21 year old All Star starter. So yes, offense is way more valuable than defense but as a big, both are equally important.

I'll rather an elite offensive player and a bad defender at the 4 over a pretty good offensive player and a below average defender all day though.

Post defense is really only critical at the 5.

I feel like Toppin can be at the 4 to what Young is on offense at the 1.

I'm sorry, but I just don't see the argument as to why Toppin should be a 5, regardless of what you say about his defense.

So what you are saying is that Toppin is going to put up a historical offensive season?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=2&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=obpm&c1comp=gt&c1val=6&c2stat=g&c2comp=gt&c2val=10&order_by=ws

Nah, dog. Just nah.

Historical numbers, no, but a threat on the offense, yes