Thunder design analysis

[Pillendreher]

With discipline, they could play all 3 Pgs together 15 minutes per game and cover the rest of the time adequately. That probably should be the plan for playoffs.

Do you consider that a viable option moving forwards? I can't help but think that this 3-PG-Lineup is just one massive, massive glitch and is going to be exposed in the postseason, especially vs teams that feature good wing players. Going back all the way to 08/09 when the Thunder became the Thunder, this is the best 3-man-lineup ever amongst all those with at least 300 minutes played at +29.4 NetRtG. In these 11 seasons, which featured multiple HoF on the Thunder, just 7 lineups have reached a +20 NetRtG if you filter for those minutes:

1st: Paul|Gilgeous-Alexander|Schröder: +29.4 in 19/20
2nd: Fisher|Collison|Durant: +27.4 in 13/14
3rd: Lamb|Collison|Durant: +25.5 in 13/14
4th: Paul|Schröder|Gallinari: +23.3 in 19/20
5th: Westbrook|Morrow|Ibaka: +21.5 in 15/16
6th: Jackson|Collison|Durant: +20.0 in 13/14
6th: Fisher|Lamb|Durant: +20.0 in 13/14

I simply don't buy this performance as anything close to real. Given the roster turnover and historical performance of these PG heavy lineups under Donovan, a +5 NetRtG would have been a great success in my book.

[ThunderBolt]

Giving up a first for Grant and Dennis seemed like gross overpays at the time. Grant ended up returning a first and Dennis’ value is as high as it’s been.

Not to dive into a big discussion about this here, but to me this sort of rationale ignores a simple fact: You can't change the past. The facts surrounding trades already made can't be altered. Grant was a massive overpay, simply because he was a very, very raw 2nd round pick whose only visible attribute was athleticism. It's good that he got a FRP back for him, but that doesn't change the fact that there was no way in hell that Grant was worth a FRP at the time of the trade in the first place.

The same goes for Schröder. Even if he can get slightly positive value back now, that doesn't mean that it was reasonable to waste a FRP for him in the first place. At the time of the trade other teams wouldn't even trade for Schröder for free. His value was that low.

Teams give themselves real shots at winning a title by not doing these kinds of things. As a GM, one of your main objectives is to make moves that lead to a positive return. Getting a FRP for Grant after buying lown on him would be a commendable overall move. Given the vast overpay in the first place, it's a wash at best and with them forcing him down the franchise's throat for years at the expense of team success, it's still a negative overall. That's the kind of **** that is always going to hold the whole franchise back.

I agree about grant. As far the the schroder trade, I don’t know what realistic options were on the table with a Melo buy out or trading for someone to buy him out. Plus the amount of money saved by swapping him for a cheaper player. Bazemore would have been a better fit at he time but he makes more than schroder. It’s hard to say what the options really were with Melo.

[jambalaya]

363 minutes for the 3 PG trio is believable to me (to level of probably being at least plus +10 long-term) but they could / should add another 300 minutes down the stretch of regular season. I'd increase in playoffs. I'd plan to keep it next season unless it fails in playoffs and maybe keep it anyways, unless they kick off all of the current for a totally new future. They don't have enough of the true future imo to make throwing off tge cureent worth it in development time. Outside Shai they mostly have young guys right now who are lucky to be backups and may always be backups at best.

[jambalaya]

The PG trio plays about 2/3rds of time with Gallo and about half the time with Adams. With Noel works, in part because it is also with Gallo 2/3rds of that time. Everything else is too lightly tested to know. With Diallo is moderately good. With Bazley, bad so far. Without Gallo next year it probably wont be as notable. Unless... they get a guy like him or even just passable overall.

[jambalaya]

Next season they either keep Paul & Schroder, Paul only, Schroder only or neither. So that is 4 different futures. With or without Galinari would make 8 scenarios but right now I am going to assume without. So which of the 4 will Presti choose (and which "should" he?

They can probably make playoffs next season with Paul & Schroder and no Galinari but the competition will be tougher.

With just one it is still possible to make 7th / 8th seed but far less likely. Imo the 3 guard lineup is real and necessary for short-term and probably for long-term success, though with different / new SGA partners. Current young wings are totally inadequate to fill starting spots and are not the necessary player types for 3 guard success (unless Dort transforms).

Without either Paul or Schroder, they may fall into bottom 5 in West. It depends what they get for them. Vets, young guys, draft picks, etc. Ideally the return for one or both would include a PG. If only one is traded they could take a shooting wing or tall forward.

I still think they probably take a power forward in the draft, preferably with at least a decent 3 pt shot. A shooting wing. or PG would be ok. Another project athletic wing defender who is nothing special shooting or worse would be disappointing and probably not that helpful.

The default option is probably not trading either PG unless it brings back desirable assets. Presti will demand good return. Whether he can get it, I dunno.

Trading both would be the clear all in on the long term future move but seems unlikely right away. They can wait and possibly trade later. They probably pursue a 2 part strategy unless this playoffs is weak or worse. I am not going to predict the playoffs right now. They probably aren't in hurry. Don't have to be but slow is still slow and means they haven't figured it out yet.

Will Presti get to 20 years on the job without a title? More likely no title than title. It will require a couple of great draft picks. No one they have now is the leader of a future title winner. Shai is more likely #3. Maybe #2 in best case development. Nice enough boxscore is not the same as big impact. Current RPM estimate is +0.39. Maybe he gets to plus 2. Right now I am not expecting going to plus 4. That is what a title contender leader needs to bring.

[getrichordie]

Next season they either keep Paul & Schroder, Paul only, Schroder only or neither. So that is 4 different futures. With or without Galinari would make 8 scenarios but right now I am going to assume without. So which of the 4 will Presti choose (and which "should" he?

They can probably make playoffs next season with Paul & Schroder and no Galinari but the competition will be tougher.

With just one it is still possible to make 7th / 8th seed but far less likely. Imo the 3 guard lineup is real and necessary for short-term and probably for long-term success, though with different / new SGA partners. Current young wings are totally inadequate to fill starting spots and are not the necessary player types for 3 guard success (unless Dort transforms).

Without either Paul or Schroder, they may fall into bottom 5 in West. It depends what they get for them. Vets, young guys, draft picks, etc. Ideally the return for one or both would include a PG. If only one is traded they could take a shooting wing or tall forward.

I still think they probably take a power forward in the draft, preferably with at least a decent 3 pt shot. A shooting wing. or PG would be ok. Another project athletic wing defender who is nothing special shooting or worse would be disappointing and probably not that helpful.

The default option is probably not trading either PG unless it brings back desirable assets. Presti will demand good return. Whether he can get it, I dunno.

Trading both would be the clear all in on the long term future move but seems unlikely right away. They can wait and possibly trade later. They probably pursue a 2 part strategy unless this playoffs is weak or worse. I am not going to predict the playoffs right now. They probably aren't in hurry. Don't have to be but slow is still slow and means they haven't figured it out yet.

Will Presti get to 20 years on the job without a title? More likely no title than title. It will require a couple of great draft picks. No one they have now is the leader of a future title winner. Shai is more likely #3. Maybe #2 in best case development. Nice enough boxscore is not the same as big impact. Current RPM estimate is +0.39. Maybe he gets to plus 2. Right now I am not expecting going to plus 4. That is what a title contender leader needs to bring.

I think we definitely keep Schroder barring a crazy return. I can’t see a future where Schroder isn’t in an OKC uniform. He’s a big part of why our offense works. Almost all of our actions are created off of Schroder, SGA, or Paul. If anything, Schroder is Paul insurance in case he gets hurt and I think we’d be willing to part with Gallinari with Bazley needing development. And it’s not like Nader can’t play some 4.

I think we pick up another quality wing in the draft as well, so Gallinari becomes more expendable.

[jambalaya]

I am fine with keeping Paul & Alexander (meant Schroder) but I think there is a good chance one is gone this summer or by the trade deadline.

I don't watch college ball but looked at Tre Jones for first time tonight. I kinda doubt he is still available when they pick even though he is slotted around then in a mock draft that I check. If he is available, he should be considered. Or by move up. Watching him running break / throwing lobs then and in half court, he could unlock Presti's pack of long athletes now and future. He could learn some from Paul and Schroder. The next PG probably should get more experience first to manage the show later. He might attract free agents in long run. Having defense, speed and vision sounds attractive.

[jambalaya]

Outside the current starters, there isnt a lot of starter potential shown. Noel could be a low-end impact starter. Dort might have the potential but it is iffy. More iffy than I expected, though it is still early. Ferguson, Diallo- no, in my firm opinion. Nader probably not. Bazley probably not above low-end starter.

So for the long-run, they have SGA (probably staying at SG) and 4 starter positions to be filled by future players. How many actually will be long-term future starters start next season? The season after that? 3 years from now? Hopefully they have at least 3 of them in 3 years. But it may not happen that fast.

[getrichordie]

I am fine with keeping Paul & Alexander but I think there is a good chance one is gone this summer or by the trade deadline.

I don't watch college ball but looked at Tre Jones for first time tonight. I kinda doubt he is still available when they pick even though he is slotted around then in a mock draft that I check. If he is available, he should be considered. Or by move up. Watching him running break / throwing lobs then and in half court, he could unlock Presti's pack of long athletes now and future. He could learn some from Paul and Schroder. The next PG probably should get more experience first to manage the show later. He might attract free agents in long run. Having defense, speed and vision sounds attractive.

Zero chance SGA gets traded this summer. Who are you going to trade him for? SGA is a building block for the future of OKC, no question.

And if we are drafting Tre' Jones, he's a fine player. He would be a good long-term back up PG and can definitely play with SGA. Will get killed on screens, though. Hopefully his offensive IQ will be more than enough to make up for that weakness.

[jambalaya]

I mis-wrote. I meant Paul and Schroder and one of them gone, not SGA. Sorry about that slip.


SGA got better overall from year 1 to yr 2. Mainly on usage, ft rate and defensive rebounding. Assist and steal rates down per minute. Keeping him at SG probably makes sense but options remain open. He is mainly a scorer at this point with a modest actual overall impact. But he is the cornerstone of the future for now. Will they eventually get a guy who ranks above him? I dunno. They should hope so. A lot depends on how satisfied he is with what he did this season. If he becomes hungry for more assists and / or better defense, that would be good. An assistant coach had to push him to do more than score and that push didn't last long. Bigger rebounding & assists in January. By March, the assists / gm were back to barely above their lowest monthly rate. Rebounds plummeted by half from the peak to the worst monthly rate.

[getrichordie]

I mis-wrote. I meant Paul and Schroder and one of them gone, not SGA. Sorry about that slip.


SGA got better overall from year 1 to yr 2. Mainly on usage, ft rate and defensive rebounding. Assist and steal rates down per minute. Keeping him at SG probably makes sense but options remain open. He is mainly a scorer at this point with a modest actual overall impact. But he is the cornerstone of the future for now. Will they eventually get a guy who ranks above him? I dunno. They should hope so. A lot depends on how satisfied he is with what he did this season. If he becomes hungry for more assists and / or better defense, that would be good. An assistant coach had to push him to do more than score and that push didn't last long. Bigger rebounding & assists in January. By March, the assists / gm were back to barely above their lowest monthly rate. Rebounds plummeted by half from the peak to the worst monthly rate.

No biggy. I slip all the time. And I routinely get roasted for it everytime I make some technical mistake

A large part of his assist rate being down is playing a large number of minutes with Paul and/or Schroder. As far as steal rate is concerned, I would imagine that is in part due to teams attacking Gallinari and Dort/Paul moreso than him or Adams...

[jambalaya]

If Presti did want to retain Schroder, would have to decide how high to go, how many years and whether by extension or free agent bid. Would impact potential for other free agent bids in short to mid-term, Adams, chance at retaining Gallinari, drafting, handling of Paul, development of SGA, plans for other guards, etc.

[getrichordie]

If Presti did want to retain Schroder, would have to decide how high to go, how many years and whether by extension or free agent bid. Would impact potential for other free agent bids in short to mid-term, Adams, chance at retaining Gallinari, drafting, handling of Paul, development of SGA, plans for other guards, etc.

I don’t think we would be targeting any big names in FA anyway. Presti likes to build through the draft and via trade market and shoot for bargain bin FAs.

[jambalaya]

(removed partial duplicate post)

[jambalaya]

Assuming SGA stays at SG, I'd want two new all-around PGs by summer 2022 by whatever means. At least one 6-4 or taller. At least one very good at drives, at least one above average on 3pt frequency & accuracy. At least one above average on defense.

At least 2 new wings, probably thru draft. One mid-size, one tall - long. Preferably both legit 3 & D.

For bigs look for guys better than Grant and Noel and guys cheaper than Gallinari & Adams. At least one rim protector, one rim runner, one 3 pt shooter and one monster rebounder within the 3-4 man rotation.

Dort, Nader, Bazley and Muscala as 2nd or 3rd string as appropriate based on next season.

I'd be open to trading some of the draft stockpile for player consolidation upgrades and draft move ups.

Try to be second round worthy in 2022-23.

I'd probably stay away from max or near max salaries unless exceptionally fortunate. A 9-10 player ensemble with no weak links.

[jambalaya]

Re-read this thread and think it is useful. What I and others said. Either to know what not to repeat or to repeat it, depending on what you what to assume or re-emphasize.

Here is a bit of new:

4 of 6 most used SGA lineups were negative. The two positives were 3 guard lineups with Paul and Schroder. Subbing in Ferguson or Dort sometimes worked, sometimes didn't. Overall Dort is the best SGA pairing beyond the more senior players. Ferguson and Bazley are the worst performing SGA pair partners at modestly negative.

Is SGA / Dort a set part of the future already or not yet? It is ok but not great. Are they SG and SF? Which is which? Will they eventually shift to PG and SG? Which is which? Does it have to be set? What is Dort's upside? How Westbrook like could he be? (Sort of was in college and G league. Was / is this the hope?) To be Westbrook like, he has to show interest and ability and assigned responsibility for passing and rebounding. Totally absent so far in NBA but might develop some. We'll see what level of development / changed role there is next season and go from there.

I still stand by all the non-starters (except no longer including Dort) are future role players or future cast-offs by trade or non-renewals. Noel and Diallo are mildly positive with SGA but not good enough imo to be future confirmed core. Maybe Noel for a transition period. Probably not for a mid-future, hoped for contention at sone level phase. Not for a real title contention phase. Diallo, I don't see above rotation because of skill set / fit.

4 of 5 most used Dort lineups are positive, but not the current starter unit. Great with Noel. Quite bad with Bazley. Quite bad with Diallo in tiny sample. Mildly bad with Ferguson in tiny sample. See more of those last two next season or not? I'd lean no but check if you want / have nothing better to do.

Who is the going forward 3rd perimeter player with SGA & Dort? Schroder as the 3rd guy produced a slightly negative trio in modest testing. Noel in general was a great trio. But make a quad with Schroder and the results were mildly negative. Try it more but try for something better too long-term.

Can they do better than SGA -Dort as a future base? It is only modestly positive but seems to be the most likely candidate. Will they try? SGA only? Dort only? With neither as base or period? Too early to know. Not too early to begin thinking seriously about it.

SGA - Dort - Noel was great. Do they keep it? Try it hard? How hard? How soon? What are the best pieces to fit with that? Hypothetical or on team? Immediate, mid-term, long-term?

Fwiw, SGA - Dort with Adams was mildly negative in more testing than with Noel got.

If you really care about short-term results, you keep Paul and try to keep Gallinari. Worth the delay of the future whatever development is the big question. Whether you retain Paul and Galinari for awhile, you probably want guys like them in pipeline to replace them. That isn't Hall and probably isn't Bazley imo. So this & future draft picks should go for starting PF better than Bazley, PG with great passing & 3pt shooting, Center with monster rebounding with shooting and / or playmaking, and an all-around bigger-sized SF (has to be able to shoot or score, no room for weak offense here unless the future bench SF is good on offense and / or someone becomes a true star or superstar).

Retain Schroder long-term? Depends on price and what else they can get by then or soon after. I'd definitely want to continue some (probably heavy) usage of lineups with SGA with 1 or 2 other PGs (other than Dort).

[jambalaya]

Sign n trade Gallinari to Spurs for Mills and Lyles, with minor additions if necessary. Which of 3 parties says no?

[jambalaya]

This is a bit rough, but first cut for Thunder:

Paul Schroder SGA Gallinari Adams 20

Paul Schroder SGA Gallinari Noel 10

Paul Dort Diallo Gallinari Noel 6

Paul Schroder Diallo Bazley Muscala 2

Schroder SGA Diallo Bazley Noel 4

Schroder SGA Dort Diallo Adams 4

Schroder Ferguson Diallo Nader Adams 4

Paul 36
Schroder 40
SGA 36
Gallinari 34
Adams 28
Noel 18
Muscala 2
Dort 12
Diallo 20
Bazley 6
Ferguson 4
Nader 4

If Dort or Diallo falter, play more Ferguson, Nader, Bazley. If Bazley does well, reduce others.

7 main lineups. Use others if you have to. If one or more don't work against the matchups. But if they spray 50-100 lineups out there, it is pretty likely they do worse than with this concentrated approach.

[jambalaya]

Big picture, if they decide to move fully into future, they could try to:

Trade Paul for 3 players (or keep longer, depending on quality of offers)
Sign n trade Gallinari for 2 players / assets
Trade Schroder for 2 players (or keep longer)
Sign n trade Noel for 2 assets (possibilities include 2nd rounders, pick swaps & swap rights) or re-sign at acceptable price.
Let Burton, Hall, Hervey and Roberson go.
Trade Ferguson for a 2nd rounder or less.
Trade Diallo for a different backup or draft compensation or cash.
Add the 2 draft picks.

I think you might get to 17 plus players in some scenarios. So trade or cut a few more from the group if / as necessary in camp. Maybe 2way the 2nd round pick.

Could do less. Could do even more.

[itzmrgigglez]

Big picture, if they decide to move fully into future, they could try to:

Trade Paul for 3 players (or keep longer, depending on quality of offers)
Sign n trade Gallinari for 2 players / assets
Trade Schroder for 2 players (or keep longer)
Sign n trade Noel for 2 assets (possibilities include 2nd rounders, pick swaps & swap rights) or re-sign at acceptable price.
Let Burton, Hall, Hervey and Roberson go.
Trade Ferguson for a 2nd rounder or less.
Trade Diallo for a different backup or draft compensation or cash.
Add the 2 draft picks.

I think you might get to 17 plus players in some scenarios. So trade or cut a few more from the group if / as necessary in camp. Maybe 2way the 2nd round pick.

Could do less. Could do even more.

I like this scorch the earth approach