MikeDC wrote:This is all backwards. We don’t “have to” assume the median. We aren’t going to pick the median, we’re picking a specific player. Likewise, it doesn’t matter one bit how we feel about the 2020 draft “as a whole”. We’re not picking the draft as a whole, we’re picking one specific player.
If it is a 2020 draft pick trade on draft day, I completely agree, and I said as such in my second paragraph.
Thinking ahead to whether we’d like a 2020 or 2021 pick, the certainty of 2020 is the certainty of our evaluation of that particular player we would likely pick. Saying a 2021 pick has more value is basically saying you specifically don’t like any player much at your 2020 pick spot.
Yes, and there is a very good chance that is the exact situation that will occur. That no one you can get in the 2020 draft will be deemed worthy of giving up Lauri for, even if you lose Lauri for nothing. That's because the 2020 draft is viewed as a very poor draft and the pick will likely not be a high one.
Also, pining for a 2021 pick is simply a poor mindset. There’s a difference between risk (which is somewhat concrete and quantifiable) and uncertainty, which is more or less random.
As in, if we trade Lauri for rookie player X (be it Killian Hayes or Jeff Green or Precious Achuwura, or whomever), we are taking a risk but it’s based on specific information. We might be right or wrong, but it’s only partially a matter of luck and greatly a matter of our ability to correctly evaluate prospects.
If we trade Lauri for 2021 pick, you eventually have all the same risk issues, but you have a lot more random chance. Hope is not a strategy
I don't think pining for a 2021 pick is what's going on. It's acknowledging that it may be the case that you are certain 2020 pick isn't a good trade. You may be more willing to trade for 2021 where there is a chance the pick will be much higher if a team disappoints and the overall draft quality is viewed as higher and making this trade in general is a lot about hope that you can buck the odds.
It also may be the case where there is no trade involving a 2021 pick that passes the bar either of course. I mean to make real obvious comparisons, if you some lousy team like Phoenix was willing to go all in on Lauri and give you an unprotected 2021 pick for him, you'd view that as a lot better than if you got the 2020 pick at say 15, because maybe Phoenix makes a huge leap forward with Lauri, but maybe they don't and you end up with a great pick in the draft.
If you want to compare straight up pick #20 in 2020 or 2021, then probably 2020 has more value, but that isn't the real comparison, because the variability and chance to get a better pick in 2021 might be more appealing if the 2020 draft actuality is poor, and again, many experts seem to think that the 2020 draft quality is really poor which makes this scenario more reasonable than it might be in other years.
Gambling on talent for the draft is always going with hope. You hope the player you get in the draft is better. It's interesting you used the phrase that hope isn't a strategy, because it is almost a certainty regardless of whether its 2020 or 2021 that the pick is going to be a worse player than Lauri.