Political Roundtable Part XXVIII

[Wizardspride]

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[TGW]

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Uh huh. The white liberals are getting excited over polls, yet they seem to be ignoring the same exact problem they had in 2016 when Hillary was dominating polls.

Biden....isn't popular. He doesn't excite the base and he's not going to bring in new voters, progressives, nor independents. The enthusiasm gap is still in Trump's favor.

Biden is banking on the "not-trump" vote (more than half of his voters are exactly this, according to polls), which is stupid and will likely end in a loss. Most people don't vote against a candidate. They simply don't vote.

[Zonkerbl]

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Uh huh. The white liberals are getting excited over polls, yet they seem to be ignoring the same exact problem they had in 2016 when Hillary was dominating polls.

Biden....isn't popular. He doesn't excite the base and he's not going to bring in new voters, progressives, nor independents. The enthusiasm gap is still in Trump's favor.

Biden is banking on the "not-trump" vote (more than half of his voters are exactly this, according to polls), which is stupid and will likely end in a loss. Most people don't vote against a candidate. They simply don't vote.

Hillary didn't dominate the polls - the week before the election the polls had her in a statistical tie with only a 70% chance at winning. The media was too stupid to interpret it correctly. A 30% chance of winning is statistically different from zero. And she never really had as big a lead as Biden does now, if memory serves.

But you're right that the polls four months ahead of the election mean zilch. It is nice to have what amounts to a twenty point lead in the first quarter - it's a sign things are going well, for now. Most of the time an early blowout leads to a win, but especially if you're playing last year's champion, you can expect the other team to make a run at some point. Let's see what the polls are after Barr drops his corrupt "investigation" findings in October.

I'm anticipating it won't do much - the HRC propaganda campaign, to convince literally millions of people that a completely innocent person was a criminal, took decades. The Comey letter threw gasoline on a fire that was already in full blaze. You can throw gasoline on Biden but then you're just throwing a caustic chemical on a defenseless old man, shame on you

[dckingsfan]

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Uh huh. The white liberals are getting excited over polls, yet they seem to be ignoring the same exact problem they had in 2016 when Hillary was dominating polls.

Biden....isn't popular. He doesn't excite the base and he's not going to bring in new voters, progressives, nor independents. The enthusiasm gap is still in Trump's favor.

Biden is banking on the "not-trump" vote (more than half of his voters are exactly this, according to polls), which is stupid and will likely end in a loss. Most people don't vote against a candidate. They simply don't vote.

Hillary didn't dominate the polls - the week before the election the polls had her in a statistical tie with only a 70% chance at winning. The media was too stupid to interpret it correctly. A 30% chance of winning is statistically different from zero. And she never really had as big a lead as Biden does now, if memory serves.

But you're right that the polls four months ahead of the election mean zilch. It is nice to have what amounts to a twenty point lead in the first quarter - it's a sign things are going well, for now. Most of the time an early blowout leads to a win, but especially if you're playing last year's champion, you can expect the other team to make a run at some point. Let's see what the polls are after Barr drops his corrupt "investigation" findings in October.

I'm anticipating it won't do much - the HRC propaganda campaign, to convince literally millions of people that a completely innocent person was a criminal, took decades. The Comey letter threw gasoline on a fire that was already in full blaze. You can throw gasoline on Biden but then you're just throwing a caustic chemical on a defenseless old man, shame on you

Surprised TGW came back after guaranteeing a Sanders win... I guess he is still sore and will vote for Trump again (wow, look how well that turned out for him last time).

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/upshot/biden-trump-poll.html

And remember - every time trump talks he is killing himself. So, Biden's strategy is:

[dckingsfan]

And for those that think all progressives are turned off by Biden, guess again. Most that actually know what is going on like the unity coalition.

[pancakes3]

Most people don't vote against a candidate. They simply don't vote.

with the margin of victory for trump being what it was, this is likely to be enough.

[dobrojim]

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Uh huh. The white liberals are getting excited over polls, yet they seem to be ignoring the same exact problem they had in 2016 when Hillary was dominating polls.

Biden....isn't popular. He doesn't excite the base and he's not going to bring in new voters, progressives, nor independents. The enthusiasm gap is still in Trump's favor.

Biden is banking on the "not-trump" vote (more than half of his voters are exactly this, according to polls), which is stupid and will likely end in a loss. Most people don't vote against a candidate. They simply don't vote.

Hillary didn't dominate the polls - the week before the election the polls had her in a statistical tie with only a 70% chance at winning. The media was too stupid to interpret it correctly. A 30% chance of winning is statistically different from zero. And she never really had as big a lead as Biden does now, if memory serves.

But you're right that the polls four months ahead of the election mean zilch. It is nice to have what amounts to a twenty point lead in the first quarter - it's a sign things are going well, for now. Most of the time an early blowout leads to a win, but especially if you're playing last year's champion, you can expect the other team to make a run at some point. Let's see what the polls are after Barr drops his corrupt "investigation" findings in October.

I'm anticipating it won't do much - the HRC propaganda campaign, to convince literally millions of people that a completely innocent person was a criminal, took decades. The Comey letter threw gasoline on a fire that was already in full blaze. You can throw gasoline on Biden but then you're just throwing a caustic chemical on a defenseless old man, shame on you

1. No Biden is NOT (typo) popular in the sense of getting people excited to vote for him.
2. In more recent times, many people actually do vote more against a candidate than for one.
Hillary had negatives about as high as tRump did. And while I might not go quite as far as Zonk
did in saying she was completely innocent, I will fully agree that she came nowhere near
actually deserving the broad public perception that she had. A decades long propaganda project
had worked.

3. I really liked what Zonk said about the media not understanding the meaning of a 70% chance
of HRC winning. The general public was even more stupid about that (it's an argument that I've
had multiple times with people who dismiss ALL polling as fiction after 2016). If polling was
as useless as these people say, no political campaign would use them. It's a science and
a business so the better your science, the more likely you are to get and stay in business.

Voting starts sooner than some realize. I applied, dropping off my application in person,
for an absentee ballot (in VA) which you can get for the asking. I was told I should get my
ballot in the mail in late Sept and that I can send it back in as soon after getting it as I want.
My wife and I will be hand delivering our ballots as early as we can.

Yes, it's still a long way until Nov 3rd.

[dobrojim]

And for those that think all progressives are turned off by Biden, guess again. Most that actually know what is going on like the unity coalition.

And probably quite a few folks who are towards the lower information side of the voting
public simply have a fairly safe, comfortable feeling about Biden which in some ways,
makes him the perfect candidate (remember I wasn't a Biden supporter during the primaries).
Not much seems to stick to him. This could also be a result of the 20,000+ false and misleading
statements tRump has made, not to mention the BS spouted by many 'mainstream' pubs.
The GOP has zero credibility with a large part of the public, as as pointed out by several of you
on the previous page.

[Wizardspride]

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[pancakes3]

so weird:

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[dckingsfan]

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This is just incredibly shocking to me - who would have guessed?

[Doug_Blew]

Surprised TGW came back after guaranteeing a Sanders win... I guess he is still sore and will vote for Trump again (wow, look how well that turned out for him last time).

TGW is a Trump supporter.

[Wizardspride]

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[Ruzious]

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Trump to Rudy: Rudy, can I pardon myself? Should I ask one of the real lawyers?

The better question is - Who's going to play Cyrus Vance in the movie?

[Pointgod]

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Uh huh. The white liberals are getting excited over polls, yet they seem to be ignoring the same exact problem they had in 2016 when Hillary was dominating polls.

Biden....isn't popular. He doesn't excite the base and he's not going to bring in new voters, progressives, nor independents. The enthusiasm gap is still in Trump's favor.

Biden is banking on the "not-trump" vote (more than half of his voters are exactly this, according to polls), which is stupid and will likely end in a loss. Most people don't vote against a candidate. They simply don't vote.

He’s back.....

[Zonkerbl]

Yikes... at the same time in August 2016, HRC had a 15 point lead over Trump...

https://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-biggest-lead-donald-trump-2016-8

[Zonkerbl]

So instead of Comey crumbling under Republican pressure to provide an October surprise, Barr's DOJ is doing EVERYTHING IT CAN to manufacture somewhat believable lies about Biden.

I guess the only defense is swing voters just aren't going to be paying attention to the lies this time. I hope they're not because there's going to be a constant stream of manufactured bad news in October.

[Kanyewest]

Yikes... at the same time in August 2016, HRC had a 15 point lead over Trump...

https://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-biggest-lead-donald-trump-2016-8

The Real Clear Politic says the lead was 7 points for Clinton at this time. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Granted right now the lead between Biden and Trump is only 7.4. Basically still a long way to go.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

[Zonkerbl]

Yikes... at the same time in August 2016, HRC had a 15 point lead over Trump...

https://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-biggest-lead-donald-trump-2016-8

The Real Clear Politic says the lead was 7 points for Clinton at this time. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Granted right now the lead between Biden and Trump is only 7.4. Basically still a long way to go.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

Wow that is a CRAZILY volatile graph.

Compare that to the one for Trump vs. Biden so far...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

Eyeballing these, Clinton's lead averaged about 3% and was crazy variable over time. Biden's lead is super steady in comparison and looks about twice as large as Clinton's.

Tricky because the scales are different.

[Zonkerbl]

Is this evidence that Clinton was running an incompetent 90s campaign and her support periodically cratered as she made mistakes? Mistakes that Biden is not making this time around? Biden is doing a good job just staying above the fray and not give Trump a target to hurl insults at.