2020 free agent targets and draft picks

[Epicurus]

Do you change what got you into the dance, even announced Prom King? No says the Bucks' coach, and probably ever other NBA coach.

[BlazersBroncos]

Dame / Simons / MCW
CJ / GTJ
Melo / Hood / Rio / Little
Collins / Gabriel / ???
Nukic / Whiteside / Moses

Are we really pretending that this squad is talented enough to make the most of Dame's prime? We need to add talent, IDK if it actually happens, but even at 100% health we are pretenders at best.

I do like MCW if he comes cheap, but he would almost certainly overtake Simons for the backup PG spot in that depth chart. He can defend and run an offense, right now Simons is clearly a SG and a pure 'potential' type at that. A guy like Kris Dunn or MCW would be great short minute defensive compliments to our scoring guards.

The franchise needs to find a way to turn Ariza and the FRP into a bigger forward who can defend. Or at least try if that isnt possible. We need to assume Hood is cooked, even if he isnt, because we cant rely on a guy coming off an Achilles injury. We have dealt with Denver before, and they need to make a move to afford Grant. I would contemplate something like Ariza + 16 for Barton + 22. Will isnt ideal, but he can shoot well enough and is good enough handling and passing to be a bit of a Batum on offense. He is a good rebounder for his size too. Saves Denver tons of money long term and they move up a bit in the draft.

Another idea could be Taurean Prince + 19 for Ariza + 16. He was abysmal last season, but we had interest in the past and he can easily bounce back as he is only 26/27. Allows BRK to get some cap relief and resign Joe Harris, gets us a big bodied SF who may be overpaid but if that its only for 2 years (13.9 / 15) so he expires the summer we need to pay Nurkic. This applies to Barton as well, the expiring aspect that summer is huge as we cant afford to pay anyone much once Nurkic is due his brinks truck.

Eithe way, we need to improve this team and take some sort of risk to keep up with the West. A team starting Carmelo Anthony at SF isnt going far.

[DaVoiceMaster]

It is time for the Blazers to go all in given Lillard and McCollum's contracts starting and their age. The Blazers need to spend some extra bucks to build a roster around those two and Nurk. I am assuming CJ goes nowhere due to Oldhey and Lillard. Everyone else is expendable. Olshey should be extremely active, including going after free agents.

[Wizenheimer]

It is time for the Blazers to go all in given Lillard and McCollum's contracts starting and their age. The Blazers need to spend some extra bucks to build a roster around those two and Nurk. I am assuming CJ goes nowhere due to Oldhey and Lillard. Everyone else is expendable. Olshey should be extremely active, including going after free agents.

the problem is that the salary cap might crater. Some estimates are 25-30M BELOW the projected 115M

besides that, might not be a season if the owners cancel the CBA thru force majeure

[zzaj]

It is time for the Blazers to go all in given Lillard and McCollum's contracts starting and their age. The Blazers need to spend some extra bucks to build a roster around those two and Nurk. I am assuming CJ goes nowhere due to Oldhey and Lillard. Everyone else is expendable. Olshey should be extremely active, including going after free agents.

the problem is that the salary cap might crater. Some estimates are 25-30M BELOW the projected 115M

besides that, might not be a season if the owners cancel the CBA thru force majeure

Yeah, given most owners have money tied up into economics that are teetering right now in the USA/world economy, I have my doubts whether anybody is going to go "all in". Viewership is high right now, but all it'll take is for a C19 outbreak and a whole season could go up in smoke. If you are an owner with the prospect of giving 10s of millions in LT--if it's not something you necessarily want to do in normal times, I doubt there is much incentive to do it currently.

[wco81]

The Blazer owner has the money, just a question of whether she's willing to spend out of pocket for the team, given that they play in an old arena without huge revenues or a big local TV deal like the Lakers.

[Goldbum]

Right now @ #16 I still like C.Anthony, Jahmius Ramsey, and Kira Lewis whichever is highest on our board.

@#46 Mamadi Diakite, Jaden McDaniels, Oturu, V.Carey,
All fantastic picks in round 2. Some horse trading may be required to get the guys they want

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Right now @ #16 I still like C.Anthony, Jahmius Ramsey, and Kira Lewis whichever is highest on our board.

@#46 Mamadi Diakite, Jaden McDaniels, Oturu, V.Carey,
All fantastic picks in round 2. Some horse trading may be required to get the guys they want

I'm not a huge fan of taking a PG at our pick, in general the outlook on mid-first picks is not great and other positions have better floors. For PGs in particular I kind of feel like in the modern NBA if you're a PG that is not a clear starter then you will just kind of bounce around the NBA. With how deep the position is, average PGs are just not that valuable and they take a while to really come into their own, so I don't see a reason to work on developing one behind Damian and CJ. I would rather address our backup PG spot with a more veteran player or even a 4 year senior in the second round.

If we look at a couple draft classes (lets say 2012-2017), these are the players picked from 10-20 who were pretty good picks:

PG: Schroder, Rozier
SG: McCollum, LaVine, Harris, Booker, Wright, LeVert, Mitchell, Kennard
SF: Harkless, Giannis, Snell, Warren, Winslow, Oubre, Prince
PF: Henson, Olynyk, Saric, Sabonis, Collins
C: Zeller, Adams, Nurkic, Turner, Collins, Adebayo

You can probably quibble a bit here and there about who to include on this list, but its pretty clear to me that the value in the mid-first round is at every position except PG. Schroder and Rozier didn't even help the teams that drafted them very much anyways, and as I said took several years to really be quality contributors.

NOW obviously some players break the mold, so this isn't to say don't go BPA. Anthony is widely projected to go in the lottery so he might not even be available to us and Lewis looks pretty darn solid to me as a prospect. But all I am saying is that as a general draft strategy my inclination is to avoid drafting a PG at our pick. I'm looking more for defenders, athletes and shooters with size as those seem to be the successful players over-looked by lottery teams.

I would love to draft Oturu, but I think we will have to move up significantly to get him. He is a first round pick in my opinion, hell maybe closer to our #16 pick than #46. He averaged an efficient 20/10 as a sophomore, 2.5 blocks and 36% from 3 with really good defense, he is being slept on and I definitely don't think Boston lets him slip out of the first round. Just hits a good many boxes for what you want in a modern NBA role player type big man.

[BlazersBroncos]

I would love to draft Oturu, but I think we will have to move up significantly to get him. He is a first round pick in my opinion, hell maybe closer to our #16 pick than #46. He averaged an efficient 20/10 as a sophomore, 2.5 blocks and 36% from 3 with really good defense, he is being slept on and I definitely don't think Boston lets him slip out of the first round. Just hits a good many boxes for what you want in a modern NBA role player type big man.

I think Oturu is a riser once the draft rolls around. He is at least as talented as Mfiondu Kabengele who went like 29. His style fits this team so well, a floor spacing big who can defend the rim.

I wonder how badly Boston wants to consolidate. I would float this:

16 + 46 for 26 + 30 + 2021 FRP (Top-20 Protected)

26 - Tre Jones PG - NBA ready defender who can run a team well enough and has enough shot to keep defenses honest
30 - Daniel Oturu C - Future backup C who can 3rd string for a season and eventually fill the role behind Nurkic

Then we have another FRP to play with or potentially package with Ariza for a SF upgrade.

[d-train]

It is time for the Blazers to go all in given Lillard and McCollum's contracts starting and their age. The Blazers need to spend some extra bucks to build a roster around those two and Nurk. I am assuming CJ goes nowhere due to Oldhey and Lillard. Everyone else is expendable. Olshey should be extremely active, including going after free agents.

the problem is that the salary cap might crater. Some estimates are 25-30M BELOW the projected 115M

besides that, might not be a season if the owners cancel the CBA thru force majeure

Yeah, given most owners have money tied up into economics that are teetering right now in the USA/world economy, I have my doubts whether anybody is going to go "all in". Viewership is high right now, but all it'll take is for a C19 outbreak and a whole season could go up in smoke. If you are an owner with the prospect of giving 10s of millions in LT--if it's not something you necessarily want to do in normal times, I doubt there is much incentive to do it currently.

Blazers will go 'all in,' as will almost every NBA team. What is 'all in?' 'All in' is betting all your chips at the table. The Blazers have enough cap flexibility to go well beyond the luxury tax. However, most NBA teams don't spend beyond the luxury tax. The best 'chip' the Blazers have is the full MLE, which means they HAVE to stay under the luxury tax, or surrender their best 'chip' and settle for the smaller taxpayer MLE.

Edit: Actually, I believe rule is teams that use the full MLE and/or the BAE are hard capped at the apron. So, it might be possible to exceed the tax threshold, depending on the order money is spent. Anyway, I don't believe the Blazers will exceed the tax threshold unless there is a rule change because of the coronavirus.

[d-train]

I predict that after the draft Olshey will declare we got the player we wanted.

[Goldbum]

I wonder if we could net Ed Davis and a pick fo a TPE?

[HoopsFanAZ]

I wonder if we could net Ed Davis and a pick fo a TPE?

Easy Ed for the Bazemore TPE? No HWEC?
Even a 2nd round pick to PTD?
Done and done.

I appreciate what HW does, but it's not as low cost or reliable on D as Easy Ed.
Another big needed for minutes -- whether it's a low cost big who can shoot from outside a bit ...
or Jalen Smith of Maryland. BUT the main thing ... if Utah is up for it, it's a win-win. He's not
getting minutes with them. Heck, "toss in" Joe Ingles and send Little and Ariza's full contract their way.
I'm in.

[Joe Ingles is a favorite of mine ... and TJ Warren since before he shot 3's ... and both Bogdanovic ... ]

[BlazersBroncos]

I wonder if we could net Ed Davis and a pick fo a TPE?

Considering that we really need a reliable backup C to keep Jusuf's minutes managed, IDK if Ed is the guy anymore. He seems to have really hit a wall this season. Can you rely on him for 18-20mpg? I honestly dont think so. And a 2nd rounder isnt worth the gamble. We need reliable backup play. If its not Hassan, we should offer the TPE for Kanter. If not that, look to FA for a guy who will sign a 2 year deal. We cant hand out deals longer than that with Nurkic's looming payday summer 2022. Tristan Thompson would be huge.

[HoopsFanAZ]

I agree on getting Tristan Thompson at both big positions. Tough get.

[BlazersBroncos]

I appreciate what HW does, but it's not as low cost or reliable on D as Easy Ed.

This is just objectively not true. Davis is cooked, when healthy this season he looked like a geriatric. We all loved the Ed days, but they are not relivable. We need a better backup than him to ensure Nurkic isnt overplayed during the regular season, he should see 26-28mpg on most nights to keep him healthy and fresh for the PO's. You cant rely on Ed Davis to be that guy at this point in his career.

If we plan on using Zach as the primary backup C and want Ed for a 8-10mpg spell, that could be doable. But in that case we need to bring in another PF, or have supreme confidence in Gabriel (While also resinging Melo). If Zach at C is what the team prefers for the backup C spot, we could potentially run this:

PF - Zach Collins (12) / Carmelo Anthony (24) / Weynen Gabriel (14)
C - Jusuf Nurkic (28) / Zach Collins (10) / Ed Davis (10)

But if we are trying to play Zach mostly at PF, we need a better backup than Davis. I am slowly coming around to Gabriel, not as the next Siakiam but as a competent hustle bench guy. The above may be the best, cheapest rotation we can hope for while putting our guys in the best position to succeed (IE: Using Zach as a Center more often). But, getting a big like Kanter or resigning Whiteside leaves us with a more talented squad without a doubt. If we are willing to spend, and want the most talent we can have, that is the route to take. This rotation is certainly better:

PF - Zach Collins (24) / Carmelo Anthony (24) / Weynen Gabriel
C - Jusuf Nurkic (26) / Hassan Whiteside (22) / 2020 FRP or SRP

[GEE]

I have pretty strong feelings about playing Collins the C. 3rd string, maybe, but I don't think it should happen unless you're playing HOU. Collins is a prototypical stretch 4, and feel the C position will continue to physically hurt him. Let him grow naturally into the C as he gets old.

I must say that Nurkic looks much more athletic and bouncier than before. He seems way quicker getting up and downI the court as well. I dream of a similar Whiteside next season. Lean and Mean.

Jaylen Smith if we pick. MCW w/ BAE. Beyond that, I don't know. I think I'd be happy with that if we can also bring Melo back, but will he eat up that MLE? Let Ariza walk. Something like this hopefully.

[JasonStern]

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[Village Idiot]

I believe the salary cap and luxury tax are going to decline by $15-20 million. That is really going to change the NBA off-season.

A team like Philly, with an expected team salary of $155 million was already looking at being $20 million over this years luxury tax threshold of $132 million. If the tax threshold goes down to $110 million they are looking at a tax bill of $163 million due to the incremental and punitive nature of going above each tier!

It seems likely that we will see an amnesty provision again. Last time each team could amnesty one player. The team would still have to pay the remainder of the salary but that salary wouldn't count towards the luxury tax. If another team signed that player as a free agent the amnestying team could deduct that amount from their obligations.

Philadelphia could cut one of Horford or Harris
Houston would probably let Gordon go
Brooklyn would probably amnesty Prince
Washington would cut Wall
Boston would probably have to let Hayward go
Golden State would let Wiggins go
OKC may choose to let CP3 go

[Sinobas]

Trade idea:
Portland trades: CJ McCollum, Zach Collins, Gary Trent Jr, 1st round pick
Pacers trade: Domantus Sabonis, Malcom Brogdon.

Why Portland does it? The benefits of getting Sabonis are obvious. We have too much money invested in CJ, Brogdon is better defender and can play both positions. Collins is no longer needed with Sabonis.

Why Indiana does it? Get a good young prospect in Gary Trent JR, Collins for that matter still has potential, and a top flight scorer for their back court who can break down a defense 1 on 1.