bwgood77 wrote:Ghost of Kleine wrote:bwgood77 wrote:
I think they only type of team that would consider it is a team that was over the cap so they wouldn't be able to sign him in FA otherwise. And in that case, they wouldn't be able to straight up trade him for a pick and absorb the contract. The only possibility would be if they had an expiring contract or unguaranteed one or two that would match. I guess it could be a contract that ran longer but in that case, I don't think we'd want it unless we viewed the player(s) as key pieces we'd want past a year.
Yeah, IF right, The only over the cap team with professed interest in Oubre, and the assets to do it would be Golden State. Now earlier you did mention though " Why would a team trade for him, IF they weren't sure that they could resign him". And to that point, I think a desperate team that could have the money to offer him, And a starting position too Would probably be enough to convince him to resign. Obviously, a team like New York would be an ideal fit. They'd have to be fairly confident that they could resign him, The big market/ Glitz and Glamour of playing in the "Mecca" of basketball, AND a guaranteed starting spot, Would have to be incredibly appealing to him towards being able to market his fashion, other brands?
Also, New York has had a really tough time attracting any notable free agents, But now they have an entirely new front office, New coach, And a boatload of cap space to offer! Oubre would be a big name for them to start things off! And he'd obviously relish the spotlight too! New York is perfect for his " Rock star persona"! The question would then become fair value for returning assets in the trade. Not long ago we likely could have traded Oubre for Portis' 15 million team option and some draft assets. But now, It would have to be for somewhat lesser pieces??
I for my part, Muchbtonthe shegrin of many on here, Would choose to trade Oubre ( IF Possible) for the 8th pick ( Toppin or Vassell). And then would of looked to move the 10th pick to Detroit for Kennard?
It probably would have had to be something like:
http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y6f5gx9tTo Phoenix- 8th pick / Elfrid Payton/ Reggie Bullock.
To New York- Oubre/ Jerome ( sweetener)?
Or IF we were more ambitious, maybe:
http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine#To Phoenix- 8th pick/ Randle.
To New York- Oubre/ Jerome.
* I added Jerome because he's a native of New York, and a Iona Prep prodigy. It would be something to sell their fans on.
* Randle, Though more expensive than Oubre is a legitimate power forward with solid size at 6'9, And is putting up very good production at-
19/9/3. And his contract is only guaranteed at 4 million in 2021. So he could be a highly tradable asset around the deadline too! I know most would simply rather hold onto Oubre. But
At least with a trade for Randle we'd get thev8th pick to guarantee us one of Toppin or Vassell. And then we'd still have a tradable asset in Randle for 2021 that would only carry a partial guarantee. But we could then use it to trade forva potential big name player around that salary from a team looking for additional cap space towards 2021 free agency? I know that would mean Randle starting at the 4, But it could still work with Booker at the 1, Bridges at the 2, and Cam at the 3 ( drawing out defenders for Ayton and Randle to dominate in the post. Something like:
1st- Booker/Bridges/Cam/Randle/ Ayton.
2nd- Rubio/ Kennard/ Vassell/ Saric/ Baynes.
3rd- Payne/ Carter/ Bridges / Cam/ Saric.
Or If we went with Payton and Bullock:
- Rubio/ Payton/ Payne.
- Booker/ Kennard/ Carter.
- Bridges/ Bullock/ Cam.
- Cam/ Saric / Toppin.
- Ayton/ Baynes/ Saric.
And IF we just flip Oubre to Golden state for the TPE, Then we can sign Jerami Grant outright, And then bring back Saric and Baynes.
10- Trade to Detroit for Kennard.
* Trade Jerome to the Pels for a mid 2nd for Killian Tillie.
Sign Grant at 42/3.
Resign Saric at 16/2. ( 2nd yr Team option).
Resign Baynes at 18/2 ( 2nd yr Team option).
- Booker/ Rubio/ Payne.
- Bridges/ Kennard/ Carter.
- Grant/ Bridges/ Cam.
- Cam/ Saric/ Grant.
- Ayton/ Baynes/ Saric.
Would we though still have our MLE and Biannual in these situations?
You think Oubre would be a big name in NY? We will have to see who they draft? They have positioned themselves to have a boatload of cap space in 2021, though Oubre could be a fall back, but the thing is, he could be a fall back anyway. They are not going to trade #8 for a 1 year FA.
GS might be a possibility, but we'd have to take salary back, and I don't know if they have the right contracts to do that. Remember Oubre probably has less value than Warren did. Even if one considers Oubre more talented and less injury prone, he is coming off an injury, TJ had a cost controlled contract at a lower dollar amount per year with 3 years left, and Oubre is a guy that plays for 1 year for a team. I wouldn't expect too much back, given his situation. He had had 3 years left at like $37 million, he'd be a very valuable trade piece.
I do think there is a good chance they trade him, but I think it would probably be for something like Kennard, or possibly Gordon if Orlando just really wants to get rid of him because they don't view him as a future fit. But it's risky for any team to give up a good asset for him. And I think it's very unlikely a rebuilding team would give up a high draft pick....that's kind of like the Nets trading the #6 pick (Lillard) for impending UFA Gerald Wallace.
I get your perspective, I really do man. With that being said, I have a few points.
1-
You think Oubre would be a big name in NY?
YES, I absolutely do. Especially in contrast to anyone they currently have on their roster! If nothing else, Oubre is energetic, Flashy, Flamboyant, Has a rockstar personality, Already has his own brand ( Valley boys) so he's a smart business man for his age and highly marketable. I mean just look at his vast following on many different media platforms, he's pretty marketable obviously. Who do the Knicks currently have that would be more of a celebrity in the spotlight? Furthermore, who at 8 in this particular draft could they actually get that would draw more publicity and/ or be more productive/ flashy/ marketable? Which prospect likely available at 8 would have that provocative, marketable personality? Which one would you anticipate to be able to shine more in the spotlight than Oubre?
2-
though Oubre could be a fall back, but the thing is, he could be a fall back anyway. They are not going to trade #8 for a 1 year FA.
Again New York should/ would have a ton of cap space to offer him, And we all know that to a young player tryingbt secure his first big contract, " Cash is King" as the saying goes. Especially in Oubres' case. If they pay him well, He'll stay! Also what other market ( with a comparable amount of cap space) would be nearly as appealing to Oubres' proclivities for the media/ spotlight/ notoriety? Maybe other than LA, I can't really think of many that would fit his rockstar personality better! He relishes the limelight, And there's no bigger stage or stakes than at MSG! So again, why would they consider Oubre in such a perfect fit situation to be a 1 yr rental? Also in 2021, They'd have the cap to add even more premium pieces around him If he came back, That got to be very appealing too. But ultimately, Money talks, And they haven't had a signing as flashy as Oubre in a very long time. I don't see anyone who might be on the board at 8 that could emulate his production, marketability or impact in their first year anyways. So in that regard alone, Oubre should easily be worth more than the 8th pick in a mediocre draft. Especially to a team like the Knicks that really struggles to attract free agents. Oubre could be their first domino to fall!
3-
GS might be a possibility, but we'd have to take salary back, and I don't know if they have the right contracts to do that
I apologize if I'm missing something here, But why exactly should we have to take salary back? Do they not still have the 17.2 million Iguodala trade exception to use? With that alone, Couldn't they simply absorb him. At least that's the understanding on the trade board from Golden state fans? The main trade proposals have been centered around Oubre/ 10th pick for TPE ( cap space) and their respective pick prior to the lottery. Now that they're at 2, I doubt they'd propose a pick swap! But I'm sure the Oubre into they're TPE offer still stands?
4-
he is coming off an injury, TJ had a cost controlled contract at a lower dollar amount per year with 3 years left, and Oubre is a guy that plays for 1 year for a team
This is precisely my point as to why holding onto him for too long only seeks to further diminish his potential trade value. Any prospective teams ( buyers) interested in Oubre will want at least a full season to properly evaluate his worth, With respect to possibly determining their level of salary commitments to him. Trading him now allows us to allocate his salary to other positions that might better balance out the roster as well as add much needed depth. As evidenced by our struggles during the season when we lost key players to injuries. We just have to properly identify the most beneficial trade partners.
5-
He had had 3 years left at like $37 million, he'd be a very valuable trade piece.
So then would you guesstimate his true and legitimate intrinsic value at around 12 million for his production,skillset and overall contractual worth? If so, ( and I agree actually) then the idea of potentially having to pay him in excess of 20 million or more in a market likely to be saturated with teams with significant cap space, makes the chances of losing him for nothing exponentially more likely. It just seems pointless to me to hold onto him, And then try to compete with many other bigger markets with equal or much more money ( miami for example) when in this summer, we could acquire the cap space for a significant impact player, Without having to bid against the numerous other teams in bidding wars for premium free agents. It's just my opinion, But if possible, I'd much rather choose to secure a significant piece for our upcoming season and playoff push, That will be key to making us a much more desirable destination in 2021. Perhaps I'm just cynical, But as good as our 8 game bubble showing was, our opponents were not at full force, and it will not be anywhere near as easy during the season when opposing teams WON'T be fielding their bench players against us. Remember that saying.......
" Chance favors the bold " ! That applies to this situation in my opinion.
6-
I do think there is a good chance they trade him, but I think it would probably be for something like Kennard, or possibly Gordon if Orlando just really wants to get rid of him because they don't view him as a future fit.
These are 2 examples of trades that I could get behind, As each one would bring back more value mere cap space, Without knowing what we might be getting back. Or what leftovers are available for our cap that would actually sign with us. Kennard IF he's healthy and durable (actually passes physical), Would give us dynamic shooting and playmaking at the backup 2. And could spot minutes at the backup guard spot in the event of Rubio's absence. And gordon IF utilized correctly as an athletic defensive utility big ( 3/4 ) wing, Could be a really dynamic compliment next to Cam, And is on a very nice descending contract.
7-
But it's risky for any team to give up a good asset for him. And I think it's very unlikely a rebuilding team would give up a high draft pick....that's kind of like the Nets trading the #6 pick (Lillard) for impending UFA Gerald Wallace.
Almost all trades aside from an anomalous few are risky! But as with any trade, Barring extreme circumstances, You have to relinquish value in order to get value in return. Regardless of his immenent free agency, Oubre still carries value. It might not be premium, But he's still young, exciting, impacts the game with his energy and tenacity, and he's still productive. So whilst potential lottery teams may not usually prefer to give up assets for a player like Oubre due to his contract situation, There are still teams that are maybe smaller markets that usually get overlooked, And risk or not, They may seem getting a year to sell a player like Oubre on their franchise, system, direction, and vision. Especially IF he's likely a higher tier talent than what they'd otherwise be capable of attracting. And IF they happen to have significant cap space or will, the risk is somewhat minimized by their ability to submit a larger scale on that player, as well as any potential comfortability he may have developed in his time there.
8-
that's kind of like the Nets trading the #6 pick (Lillard) for impending UFA Gerald Wallace.
Well to be fair contextually, With respect to the available talent level of this draft, as well as the referenced draft position, I don't see anyone, Even at 8, Who'd even come remotely close to having the potential of Lillard! So I'm not sure that would be the best example honestly. You'd really have to compare the most likely projections closer to the draft to guage comparable value. But just for argument's sake, take the best prospect most likely available at 8? Then compare his projected impact to that of what Oubre currently produces. Would that player really have comparable value or greater value than Oubre. And again, it's important to remember that in this comparison for proposed Oubre trades, The receiving teams would be New York ( 8) Whom, would quite obviously have more than enough money to resign him. So you're then asking yourself, In the immediate future, which player would most likely have a greater overall impact on their franchise? Whomever they draft at 8 in an underwhelming draft? Or a young athletic wing currently producing starter level numbers. And who some have argued has
Super 6th man potential. Also having to consider Oubres' current trajectory too. So ultimately, the argument becomes, Is a starter level wing with dynamic athleticism worth less than a rookie prospect at 8 in this draft? And IF New York prefers to be relevant sooner rather than later, which makes more sense. A proven starter level veteran putting up impressive numbers? Or an unproven rookie prospect with no tangible experience at that level? Wouldn't most opt for the known commodity? And if you're trying to attract a higher tier of free agents which do you sell them on playing with? An inexperience rookie or a starting rotation level veteran?
In this particular draft, Many might prefer a known commodity. Especially if they feel they have a good chance of resigning him.
Off topic-
*** Riller actually might be the closest prospect to Lillard or McCollum in this draft in terms of making big shots, Big plays, and being nearly unstoppable in penetration and scoring at the rim. Just saying!
