What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

[ParticleMan]

my understanding is that the entire point of basketball is to shoot the ball into the basket, and stop the other guy from doing the same. but what do i know.

luka is objectively better, but it's not by that much, and it's more difficult to build a team around him given he has serious limitations as a defender and is a high volume shooter. it's basically the allen iverson problem. notice how iverson never actually won a title. let me know when luka does.

[31to6]

Psych — point of basketball is to get TRIPLE DOUBLES amirite?

[Bar Fight]

my understanding is that the entire point of basketball is to shoot the ball into the basket, and stop the other guy from doing the same. but what do i know.

luka is objectively better, but it's not by that much, and it's more difficult to build a team around him given he has serious limitations as a defender and is a high volume shooter. it's basically the allen iverson problem. notice how iverson never actually won a title. let me know when luka does.

Allen Iverson was tiny and inefficient. Luka is big and efficient. That couldn't be a more offbase comparison. Luka isn't a great defender, but he's not a liability either. Hanging your hat on the fact that he hasn't won as a second year player is crazy. Any GM would take Luka to build around over probably anyone in the league right now.

[24istheLAW]

my understanding is that the entire point of basketball is to shoot the ball into the basket, and stop the other guy from doing the same. but what do i know.

luka is objectively better, but it's not by that much, and it's more difficult to build a team around him given he has serious limitations as a defender and is a high volume shooter. it's basically the allen iverson problem. notice how iverson never actually won a title. let me know when luka does.

Allen Iverson was tiny and inefficient. Luka is big and efficient. That couldn't be a more offbase comparison. Luka isn't a great defender, but he's not a liability either. Hanging your hat on the fact that he hasn't won as a second year player is crazy. Any GM would take Luka to build around over probably anyone in the league right now.

Yep. Luka might not be a good 3-point shooter, but he isn't a chucker either - he's got a .585 TS% on the season, which is better than Tatum.

When LeBron was in his age 20 season, he was still learning how to shoot the 3. That'll come. He might never be as good as Tatum shooting, but he should get to averaging 38% a year, on top of all the other stuff he can do. The bigger hole in Luka's production right now isn't shooting, its that despite the gaudy numbers, he turns the ball over a lot. That has to change.

And Luka will be a good enough defender in time. People overrate jumping out of the gym. He has enough feel for basketball that his positioning can be good enough to be average. Which as a 6'7" wing is good enough.

[BostonCouchGM]

my understanding is that the entire point of basketball is to shoot the ball into the basket, and stop the other guy from doing the same. but what do i know.

luka is objectively better, but it's not by that much, and it's more difficult to build a team around him given he has serious limitations as a defender and is a high volume shooter. it's basically the allen iverson problem. notice how iverson never actually won a title. let me know when luka does.

Allen Iverson was tiny and inefficient. Luka is big and efficient. That couldn't be a more offbase comparison. Luka isn't a great defender, but he's not a liability either. Hanging your hat on the fact that he hasn't won as a second year player is crazy. Any GM would take Luka to build around over probably anyone in the league right now.

Luka is a massive defensive liability. The only reason why this isn't more apparent is because there's clearly a league mandate preventing teams from going after "stars" when they're on defense. Otherwise, you'd see teams go at the same guy over and over until they fouled out. The fact that IT, Luka, Steph, etc never foul out is proof of this. Luka also shoots 31% from three and has close to 5 turnovers a game. How is that efficient? Again, he's able to get separation because in today's NBA they allow carries, push offs and travels. I suppose I should just accept this is the new normal but it's hard when you've watched the NBA since 1980 and see it becoming a completely different game. It's like allowing everyone in baseball to do steroids and juicing the ball. That's what they're doing. None of these guys could do any of this if they called the game by the rules. The reason it looks like players were so much less athletic back in the day wasn't because they weren't amazing athletes, it's because they couldn't palm the ball, travel and push defenders off them. That's why the outliers like Pistol Pete, Bird, Magic and MJ were so special. They could do these amazing things while playing within the rules.

So yeah, based on how the game is officiated now, you'd absolutely build around Luka. But as far as who you'd take based on how basketball was officiated up until about 2000, you'd want dozens of other guys.

[Bar Fight]

my understanding is that the entire point of basketball is to shoot the ball into the basket, and stop the other guy from doing the same. but what do i know.

luka is objectively better, but it's not by that much, and it's more difficult to build a team around him given he has serious limitations as a defender and is a high volume shooter. it's basically the allen iverson problem. notice how iverson never actually won a title. let me know when luka does.

Allen Iverson was tiny and inefficient. Luka is big and efficient. That couldn't be a more offbase comparison. Luka isn't a great defender, but he's not a liability either. Hanging your hat on the fact that he hasn't won as a second year player is crazy. Any GM would take Luka to build around over probably anyone in the league right now.

Luka is a massive defensive liability. The only reason why this isn't more apparent is because there's clearly a league mandate preventing teams from going after "stars" when they're on defense. Otherwise, you'd see teams go at the same guy over and over until they fouled out. The fact that IT, Luka, Steph, etc never foul out is proof of this. Luka also shoots 31% from three and has close to 5 turnovers a game. How is that efficient? Again, he's able to get separation because in today's NBA they allow carries, push offs and travels. I suppose I should just accept this is the new normal but it's hard when you've watched the NBA since 1980 and see it becoming a completely different game. It's like allowing everyone in baseball to do steroids and juicing the ball. That's what they're doing. None of these guys could do any of this if they called the game by the rules. The reason it looks like players were so much less athletic back in the day wasn't because they weren't amazing athletes, it's because they couldn't palm the ball, travel and push defenders off them. That's why the outliers like Pistol Pete, Bird, Magic and MJ were so special. They could do these amazing things while playing within the rules.

So yeah, based on how the game is officiated now, you'd absolutely build around Luka. But as far as who you'd take based on how basketball was officiated up until about 2000, you'd want dozens of other guys.

[NY 567]

Peak Paul George without the playoff shortcomings.

[BostonCouchGM]

Allen Iverson was tiny and inefficient. Luka is big and efficient. That couldn't be a more offbase comparison. Luka isn't a great defender, but he's not a liability either. Hanging your hat on the fact that he hasn't won as a second year player is crazy. Any GM would take Luka to build around over probably anyone in the league right now.

Luka is a massive defensive liability. The only reason why this isn't more apparent is because there's clearly a league mandate preventing teams from going after "stars" when they're on defense. Otherwise, you'd see teams go at the same guy over and over until they fouled out. The fact that IT, Luka, Steph, etc never foul out is proof of this. Luka also shoots 31% from three and has close to 5 turnovers a game. How is that efficient? Again, he's able to get separation because in today's NBA they allow carries, push offs and travels. I suppose I should just accept this is the new normal but it's hard when you've watched the NBA since 1980 and see it becoming a completely different game. It's like allowing everyone in baseball to do steroids and juicing the ball. That's what they're doing. None of these guys could do any of this if they called the game by the rules. The reason it looks like players were so much less athletic back in the day wasn't because they weren't amazing athletes, it's because they couldn't palm the ball, travel and push defenders off them. That's why the outliers like Pistol Pete, Bird, Magic and MJ were so special. They could do these amazing things while playing within the rules.

So yeah, based on how the game is officiated now, you'd absolutely build around Luka. But as far as who you'd take based on how basketball was officiated up until about 2000, you'd want dozens of other guys.

right? ha ha ha remember when teams used to post up 5'8" IT play after play after play...oh no...me neither. Why is that again? Please explain..actually don't bother

[FlatearthZorro]

Peak Paul George without the playoff shortcomings.

This sounds about right. He could be slightly better(Tatum that is) cause he does seem to be physically stronger already, but I'll take a prime George, he was a top 5 player in the league.

[FlatearthZorro]

MVP convo but Luka's MVP to lose

It’s Lukas league for the next 15 years

Hopefully the kid holds up physically, always seems to be dinged up.

Then again he played today with a bum ankle

Love Luka, too, but I dunno, I feel that defense is kinda underrated in today's game. Tatum is miles ahead of Luka on D and is better right now than Luka will ever be there. I still feel Tatum can average like 28/10 and be a 1st team all defense and I admire Luka, but I'll take the 2 way player(maybe bias, too).

[big-shot-ROB]

Man, those freaking green glasses.

Take off Walker and Hayward and we'd be an 8th seed. He has a lot of growth left in terms of being a primary playmaker and ball-handler. He's great creating his own shot, but lacks the general control of an offense. That's why Durant was never able to do it alone, or Kawhi. LeBron, Harden, Luka, Curry, Giannis, all are primary creators for themselves and others.

You can literally put Luka on any team and he'll make them instantly better. He is a generational talent.

Doesn't mean Tatum isn't top-10, he is. He's one of the best scorers in the league on top of being a stud defender. But Luka is on another planet, and that shouldn't be a knock on Tatum at all.

[zoyathedestroya]

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[MagicBagley18]

Yea I don’t think it’s a knock on tatum to say Lukas better. Tatum is a stud, we are lucky to have him and he’s our future. We get into arguments ab a top 5 or top 10 ceiling which just shows how damn good he is already.

But Luka has generational talent, like top 10 all time talent. Those are things that don’t and shouldn’t get thrown out easy but the kids just unreal. His defense is not good but he’s still ahead of tatum.

[100proof]

Take off Walker and Hayward and we'd be an 8th seed.

That seem an odd statement. Take off 2 allstars on a team and not replace them with anyone capable and yeah. Team will not be good. I mean who steps up into the starting lineup? Semi? Edwards? Wannamaker?

Take KP and THJ off the Mavs and they are fighting for the number 1 pick. Certainly not making the playoffs.

[Bleeding Green]

Take off Walker and Hayward and we'd be an 8th seed.

That seem an odd statement. Take off 2 allstars on a team and not replace them with anyone capable and yeah. Team will not be good. I mean who steps up into the starting lineup? Semi? Edwards? Wannamaker?

Take KP and THJ off the Mavs and they are fighting for the number 1 pick. Certainly not making the playoffs.

I don't even think it's true. They're probably a 4-6 seed without Walker and Hayward. The east is trash. The Celtics had a winning record without Kemba (11-5) and a winning record without Hayward (14-6). And 2-0 when both sat. The 7 and 8 seed had a losing record. People don't watch basketball here.

Mavs have a better record without KP than with. Dude is the most overrated player in basketball for sure.

[BostonCouchGM]

It’s Lukas league for the next 15 years

Hopefully the kid holds up physically, always seems to be dinged up.

Then again he played today with a bum ankle

Love Luka, too, but I dunno, I feel that defense is kinda underrated in today's game. Tatum is miles ahead of Luka on D and is better right now than Luka will ever be there. I still feel Tatum can average like 28/10 and be a 1st team all defense and I admire Luka, but I'll take the 2 way player(maybe bias, too).

I'm not alone!!

[John-S]

Come on man, Tatum is good, like real good, but he doesn’t have Luca’s pure offensive genuis or playmaking IQ. Luca can put up monster numbers and can be unguardable even when he still can’t shoot the 3 above 30% and air balls them sometimes. His shooting stroke and high release point all scream elite future shooter, so that 3 pt shooting and even FT shooting will get better, A LOT better. If and when that happens, people can’t be cheating off him even a tiny bit either guarding his blowby step or passing. Imagine if he was a bit more more athletic, actually a lot more like Tatum. He would be blowing by people,left and right and dunking, but he doesn’t seem to need it. Even if he is bad to average defensively, because of his 6-8 height and sheer bulk, he won’t hurt you like someone below 6-5 and skinny would getting posted up or bullied.

Can’t compare Luca to Tatum. Luca will be battling Giannis’ overall game soon if only his 3pt shooting improves even if his defence doesn’t. Pure offensive genius.

[greenroom31]

Not sure how this became a debate about Luka vs. Tatum, but one guy is 21 and the other is 22. Let's revisit this conversation in 3-5 years and see how they both develop and grow before proclaiming the winner. Right now Luka is ahead on playmaking and intangibles and Tatum is the superior shooter and defender. They both have a lot of potential to grow and add to their abilities, and both are special players. It's not a zero sum game.

[Jaqua92]

Got a new take on Tatum after these first 5 playoff games.

Even got a bit of green in this one.

The positives/improvements: Firstly, I do think he's a fringe top 10 guy right now. 10-15. He has a case over any of those guys, and those guys have a case over him. At just 23, I think he will end up being at worst a fringe top 5-7 guy in his prime. His vision has improved, his passing has improved, his decision making has improved, and the game has slowed for him. He's taken about a full step in those areas. He's an elite defender. In order for him to make that jump to top 5-7, he needs to take just one more step. He's closer there than I thought he would be.

What I would like to see: Just two things really. He needs to put on another 10 pounds, and strengthen his lower body. His strength under the hoop is variable and his inconsistency at the rim, at times is due to rushing shots because he doesn't have the strength to consistently finish when meeting post defenders at the rim. His success at the hoop is attributed to his length, and getting a step on his man defender and beating rotations. Would like to see him bulk up.

Mid range shot creation. He's an elite 3 point shooter and he can get his shot off there. But all elite offensive players aren't necessarily weak from anywhere. During the regular season, he shot 38.1% from mid range. Post season, he's at 47.5% from mid range. Not sure what it was today, as 47.5% was in the first round (that's elite efficiency), probably somewhere in between. His issue is that his mid range J looks akward when he's facing solid coverage. What's keeping him from being more reliable from that area when he has a reliable mid range / shooting touch in general? He's long, and I think he needs to find better ways to get space from his defender. Hate to use the obvious here, but https://youtu.be/FrfMT2lA6nQ

NBA skills coach breaks down MJ's separation moves from mid. JT has a very natural feel for the game, would like to see some more body fakes and ball fakes to create space for himself from mid.


If he can gain another 10 pounds, and some strength...and polish up his mid range shot creation, he will be a perinnial MVP Calibur player. I'll admit it. But not until these two things happen.

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[playa-hater]

First Post since joining this message board. Glad to see so many Boston fans in one place.. Obviously way behind on topics.
As far as Tatum goes, his ceiling is consistent 1st team all NBA player.. and Super Star status IMO..

People have different values for what makes a Star-Super Star... Mine is, can he take over a game?.. In a Big game?? and in crunch time? and I have YES for all 3.. Not many players can do that.. and deliver regularly.. JT is still early on that part of his career but already shown ridiculous promise in that regard..

*AND this is all while being an elite level defender.. On the man, off the ball, and in today's game, switch-ability..