Prospect Thread: Obi Toppin

[JMAC3]

Let’s say PJ is only 15/8 on good percentages. If Toppin is a hooper and 20/9, was it worth the pick? Or would you rather address another hole on the team?


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If PJ is scoring 15 points, how many is he giving up at the other end?

Likewise, if Toppin is scoring 20 points, how many is he giving up at the other end?

Toppin has me remembering the hype some had on this board around Thomas Robinson.


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Are you saying PJ is bad on defense?


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[BigSlam]

Let’s say PJ is only 15/8 on good percentages. If Toppin is a hooper and 20/9, was it worth the pick? Or would you rather address another hole on the team?


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If PJ is scoring 15 points, how many is he giving up at the other end?

Likewise, if Toppin is scoring 20 points, how many is he giving up at the other end?

Toppin has me remembering the hype some had on this board around Thomas Robinson.


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Are you saying PJ is bad on defense?


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Not in the slightest.

I’m saying Toppin is.


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[Vanderbilt_Grad]

Just to make MI happy, I finally found a big board that has Obi #1
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/nba-draft-prospects-2020-top-players-big-board/1d0n8zzra6niv1fnxyhksj8is8

[SWedd523]

I see him as a guy who will need to be surrounded by certain players that cover his clear weaknesses to be successful long term. I'm tired of drafting guys with glaring limitations that have to be game planned for. Definitely not top 3

You draft this guy to fit a role in an already established hierarchical where he can thrive as a supporting character. We aren't in the position to maximize what he can offer while covering what he doesn't.

[MasterIchiro]

Just to make MI happy, I finally found a big board that has Obi #1
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/nba-draft-prospects-2020-top-players-big-board/1d0n8zzra6niv1fnxyhksj8is8

Sports Illustrated has Toppin going 3, my preferred slot for him.

The league is changing so his weaknesses are easier to assimilate and his strengths fit the direction of the league. All these prospects have limitations. Even Steph Curry was knocked for playing easy competition and for being "too small". It's no great shock that all these prospects have limitations teams have to manage. Toppin is an efficient scorer while being a superior athlete. He can score inside, out and run in transition, all 3 levels, played in an NBA offense and showed dramatic improvement recently. There's no way he's done developing based on recent precedent. He was 6' 3" junior year in high school. He's spent most of his life developing his guard skills. A big man who's athletic with a foundation of guard skills is rare.

[JMAC3]

I disagree about all three levels, I haven’t seen him create any offense off the bounce that ends in him shooting... he is strictly a catch and shoot guy outside of 10 feet


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[yosemiteben]

Dean on Draft writeup on Obi is brutal:

Spoiler:

Obi has one really big strength– he is an explosive athlete and finisher, making 69% of his 2P in two years at Dayton.

And that’s his only real strength. His passing and shooting are OK, and his 7’2″ wingspan and explosiveness give him a chance at defensive competence. But there are a number of concerns.

First, he was playing in an ideal system to post the statistics he did. Even during his redshirt year, Dayton had the 2nd best 2P% in NCAA led by freshman PG Jalen Crutcher. It’s not just Obi– the whole team feasts on easy interior shots. Obi is a great finisher regardless, but he likely would have posted a less outlier 2P% in a different offense playing against tougher competition.

While he shot 41.7% from 3 in his two years at Dayton, that was only over 103 attempts. He didn’t have a great 3PA rate and his 70.6% FT is only OK for a prospect who turned 22 in March.

Similarly, he has nearly as many assists as turnovers which is decent for a 6’9″ big, but considering his age it’s only OK.

And in spite of his physical tools, he may be an absolute turnstile on defense. He doesn’t move well laterally, and has underwhelming blocks for a big. He may be too stiff to guard the perimeter and too small to guard the paint.

Toppin had a curiously low 6.4% offensive rebound rate for a player with his size and athleticism. It’s worth wondering if he is lacking in motor and/or toughness, as he also has a pedestrian free throw rate.

Toppin played in a highly favorable environment to pad his stats and has a number of scary flaws. Considering that he redshirted as a sophomore aged freshman for a rebuilding mid-major team, there’s a serious concern that he’s an ordinary offensive prospect who is a disaster on D.

What is especially crazy is that he is currently ranked above Onyeka Okongwu. They have similar dimensions, but for a prospect who is 2 years 9 months older and played in a much more favorable offense, his offense isn’t that much better. It really isn’t clear who is the better offensive prospect between the two: 26.4 usg 122 ortg vs 23.4 usg 119 ORtg.

Even if we give Obi a slight offensive edge, Okongwu easily makes up for it with a monstrous advantage on defense. There is simply no defense for choosing Obi over Onyeka.

Where does this leave Obi? It’s tough to say. He has similar #’s to Montrezl Harrell with slightly better passing and shooting but worse ORebs, FT%, and 2″ less length. If you get a different flavor of Harrell in this lottery, that’s a favorable outcome.

That said, Harrell went in round 2 in a much deeper draft, and there’s no clear reason to value Obi higher as he is not guaranteed to share similar success. Harrell was great value in round 2, and there’s a good chance Obi would be as well, but his true value likely lies somewhere in the middle of where he is rated and Harrell was chosen.

Edit: Obi’s wingspan is actually 6’11”, not 7’2″ which is being commonly reported. This explains his pedestrian steal + block rates, and puts a dent in the likelihood he can overcome his lateral issues defensively.

[luciano-davidwesley]

He looks to me to be a dunker only. I don’t see much else in his skill set. His defense is horrible. Please don’t draft this guy.

Wiseman looks much better than Toppin and is younger.

[yosemiteben]

It does feel a little disingenuous to simply dismiss his three point shooting based on that sample size like Dean did.

[DY_nasty]

It does feel a little disingenuous to simply dismiss his three point shooting based on that sample size like Dean did.

I think its only the context of labeling him a legit shooter when other guys graded purely as shooters never get that luxury

[KingCat]

Cant shoot. Cant defend. Cant rebound. Cant dribble. But atleast be dunks good. Why would anyone want to draft Miles Bridges -2.0???

[MasterIchiro]

Cant shoot. Cant defend. Cant rebound. Cant dribble. But atleast be dunks good. Why would anyone want to draft Miles Bridges -2.0???

Can't shoot, huh? Maybe try again.

[JMAC3]

I could see him being a Kyle Kuzma type guy, but he is 4. He doesn’t make plays for his teammates and he doesn’t really create his own shots.

So pick and pop, occasional highlight dunk and corner three guy. Just don’t see him being much better than PJ, would rather take a chance on someone else.


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[KingCat]

Cant shoot. Cant defend. Cant rebound. Cant dribble. But atleast be dunks good. Why would anyone want to draft Miles Bridges -2.0???

Can't shoot, huh? Maybe try again.

Oops you got me! So he still can't defend, can;t rebound, can't dribble. This guys ceiling is Carlos Boozer lmao

[HornetJail]

Cant shoot. Cant defend. Cant rebound. Cant dribble. But atleast be dunks good. Why would anyone want to draft Miles Bridges -2.0???

Can't shoot, huh? Maybe try again.

Oops you got me! So he still can't defend, can;t rebound, can't dribble. This guys ceiling is Carlos Boozer lmao

Carlos Boozer was a two time all-star. There's worse ceilings to have. Aside from being a bad defender I don't see what these guys have in common anyway

[MasterIchiro]

Can't shoot, huh? Maybe try again.

Oops you got me! So he still can't defend, can;t rebound, can't dribble. This guys ceiling is Carlos Boozer lmao

Carlos Boozer was a two time all-star. There's worse ceilings to have. Aside from being a bad defender I don't see what these guys have in common anyway

I think Toppin has more in common with Amar'e Stoudamire than Boozer. Athleticism, scoring efficiency, outside shooting, handling and finishing in transition, poor defense.

[DY_nasty]

The only thing he has in common with Amare is the bad defense lol

[KingCat]

Amare Stoudemire had a nice post game. Obi has a weak as hell one.

[Liver_Pooty]

Toppin wreaks of a more athletic Tobias Harris to me. Isn't a bad player by any means. Hardly, actually. Just not a fan at 3.

[Vanderbilt_Grad]

Deanondraft added this to his low ranking of Obi

Edit: Obi’s wingspan is actually 6’11”, not 7’2″ which is being commonly reported. This explains his pedestrian steal + block rates, and puts a dent in the likelihood he can overcome his lateral issues defensively.

He also talked about Obi when discussing Reggie Perry in a new update

Perry is yet another 2nd round big who isn’t that different from Obi Toppin. He lacks Toppin’s explosive finishing ability, but is much more well rounded offensively, better rebounding, and has slightly better dimensions and hope of competence on defense.

And Vernon Carey

The most direct comparison for Carey among lottery prospects is Obi Toppin, who currently is ranked #4 on ESPN’s mock. Obi has similar dimensions (Carey is approximately 1″ taller and longer). Toppin is much more vertically explosive and better at finishing, but other than that Carey destroys him.

Carey is a much better rebounder and a better shot blocker. Both struggle to defend in space, but Carey has more hope of learning long term because he is 3 years younger and Obi’s vertical explosiveness has not translated to lateral competence. Toppin is the slightly better shooter and passer now, but Carey is a favorite to surpass him in both in 3 years. And in spite of Obi’s super athleticism, Carey has more skill in the paint as he was able to score more points at just slightly lower efficiency in spite of the age gap and tougher competition.

And to cap it all off: Carey was a top 5 recruit while Obi was a 20 year old redshirt for a mid-major team. Obi is getting more attention because of his athleticism, but he has an incomplete athletic package since it doesn’t translate to defense, and collectively Carey is the clearly superior talent.