Prospect Thread: Obi Toppin

[SWedd523]

My biggest issue with Toppin is that, while he is a great straight line and vertical athlete, he has almost no ability to move laterally, bend, or move. It's like he has the tightest hips I've ever seen. Like he's playing with a back brace on. His ability to bend/change direction is scary bad

[KGdaBom]

Don't know anything about him, but I can see the Jedi jokes coming so I'm all for it.

Wolves already have Obiwon Okogie. We will claim copyright infringement.

[luciano-davidwesley]

He’s the guy I can see being the biggest bust of this draft. Just a feeling, could be wrong.

[MasterIchiro]

Points per possession last year. James Harden led with .48 points per possession. For every 100 possessions, he scored 48 points.

1 James Harden
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo
3 Joel Embiid
4 Stephen Curry
5 Kawhi Leonard
6 Devin Booker
7 Kevin Durant
8 Kemba Walker
9 Paul George
10 Lou Williams
11 Karl-Anthony Towns
12 Damian Lillard
13 Kyrie Irving
14 Blake Griffin
15 Donovan Mitchell
16 Zach LaVine
17 D'Angelo Russell
18 Bradley Beal
19 Julius Randle
20 Nikola Vučević

Obi Toppin points per possession = 1.2

Obi scored 120 points per 100 possessions. He literally scores a point every time he has possession of the ball.

You can say he played in a weak conference or that his team fed him the ball but he hits outside shots and finishes in transition as well. And the fact is he doubled up James Harden.

Obi Toppin is the most efficient scorer in college basketball and the Hornets are the worst team on offense.

[Vanderbilt_Grad]

Obi Toppin is the most efficient scorer in college basketball and the Hornets are the worst team on offense.

Isn't this another version of drafting for fit / need?

[James Gatz]

Points per possession last year. James Harden led with .48 points per possession. For every 100 possessions, he scored 48 points.

1 James Harden
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo
3 Joel Embiid
4 Stephen Curry
5 Kawhi Leonard
6 Devin Booker
7 Kevin Durant
8 Kemba Walker
9 Paul George
10 Lou Williams
11 Karl-Anthony Towns
12 Damian Lillard
13 Kyrie Irving
14 Blake Griffin
15 Donovan Mitchell
16 Zach LaVine
17 D'Angelo Russell
18 Bradley Beal
19 Julius Randle
20 Nikola Vučević

Obi Toppin points per possession = 1.2

Obi scored 120 points per 100 possessions. He literally scores a point every time he has possession of the ball.

You can say he played in a weak conference or that his team fed him the ball but he hits outside shots and finishes in transition as well. And the fact is he doubled up James Harden.

Obi Toppin is the most efficient scorer in college basketball and the Hornets are the worst team on offense.

Do you have the stats for how he compared with the other top prospects? I'm sure Toppin would lead the list but not sure if its fair to compare college player stats to NBA players stats on a points per possession basis.

I'd bet that Toppin puts up a good amount of points as an NBA guy but he seems to be easily the worst defensive big man in this class. Guard defense matters less than Bigs defense so his limitation there makes me want to stay away.

[MasterIchiro]

Obi Toppin is the most efficient scorer in college basketball and the Hornets are the worst team on offense.

Isn't this another version of drafting for fit / need?

He's an elite talent on offense who happens to play the same position as PJ. So it's more about his talent and it's convenient that his talent fits a need. But the presence of PJ should not be an issue because Kupchak said he's not worried about drafting players who play the same position as current ones.

[MasterIchiro]

Points per possession last year. James Harden led with .48 points per possession. For every 100 possessions, he scored 48 points.

1 James Harden
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo
3 Joel Embiid
4 Stephen Curry
5 Kawhi Leonard
6 Devin Booker
7 Kevin Durant
8 Kemba Walker
9 Paul George
10 Lou Williams
11 Karl-Anthony Towns
12 Damian Lillard
13 Kyrie Irving
14 Blake Griffin
15 Donovan Mitchell
16 Zach LaVine
17 D'Angelo Russell
18 Bradley Beal
19 Julius Randle
20 Nikola Vučević

Obi Toppin points per possession = 1.2

Obi scored 120 points per 100 possessions. He literally scores a point every time he has possession of the ball.

You can say he played in a weak conference or that his team fed him the ball but he hits outside shots and finishes in transition as well. And the fact is he doubled up James Harden.

Obi Toppin is the most efficient scorer in college basketball and the Hornets are the worst team on offense.

Do you have the stats for how he compared with the other top prospects? I'm sure Toppin would lead the list but not sure if its fair to compare college player stats to NBA players stats on a points per possession basis.

I'd bet that Toppin puts up a good amount of points as an NBA guy but he seems to be easily the worst defensive big man in this class. Guard defense matters less than Bigs defense so his limitation there makes me want to stay away.

Is there a draft prospect you want me to compare his points per possession? I don't have a list. But pick somebody and I will look at it. Maybe Edwards? He too was the only option for his team.

As far as defense, I think current spacing demands that perimeter defenders carry more weight and team defense seems to be pushing out to the perimeter where the scorers are putting up threes at historical levels. Even Borrego has said when discussing getting better at interior D that those layups don't happen in the first place if the defender stops the scorer at the perimeter. I think the best post defender is Gobert and he was a first round knockout.

Additionally, as far as value, prospects known as all-offense still command high return on the trade market. The Knicks offered Porzingis for Booker. The Wolves used LaVine to acquire Jimmy Butler.

Toppin is an asset no matter which way you look at it. He's an elite scorer and likely the most efficient scorer coming out of college in this draft.

[BeesWax]

I am just not sold on Toppin being an elite offensive option in the NBA. I think he had a nice college season but he took advantage of a weak schedule and no tournament to look far better than he will end up. He never played against players like those who will defend him. His success is going to hinge on him being able to actually do some of these things against real competition. I don't like gambling on a D2 prospect high in the NFL draft or a mid major player that doesn't have a track record of success against high level players in the first round of the NBA draft.

[MasterIchiro]

Steph Curry played in the same conference. College basketball is a more level playing field now that players in the top conferences leave after Freshman year. Toppin took a wrecking ball to experienced players.

[KGdaBom]

Steph Curry played in the same conference. College basketball is a more level playing field now that players in the top conferences leave after Freshman year. Toppin took a wrecking ball to experienced players.

You're making a strong case for Toppin. Good Job. If my Wolves draft him I may not jump off a bridge.

[James Gatz]

That's the thing though, I don't think Toppin has the ability to guard on the perimeter at all. His lateral agility is really poor and his tight hips make it tough for him to get into and stay in a solid defensive stance. This is to say nothing of his inability to serve a rim protector.

Is he defending the 4? 5? The 4 he'll get blown by on straight line drives and even more so on switches. The 5 I don't see him being able to anchor a defense or defend against bigs in the post.

It feels like you'd have to hide him on the other team's worst offensive player which is something that would lead him to getting exposed if we ever made it to the playoffs. Not to mention having to surround him with good defenders which makes team building much more difficult. I'm fine with picking a guy with warts and building around but he has to the guy and I don't think Obi is one.

For me, I see him as a great bench scorer that can lead a second unit 20-25 mpg and not really play at the end of games.

[amcoolio]

"Can this guy play in the playoffs?"

Thats the question we should be asking.

In my opinion, no , Obi can't. He moves so slow laterally I don't know how you can hide him on defense. Its easier hiding a PG but way harder hiding a PF.

Lateral quickness is something you can't train or teach

Really don't want this guy.

[yosemiteben]

Frank Kaminsky also had elite offensive efficiency, higher than Obi. Substitute straight line athleticism for BBIQ and it feels like they have similar attributes.

[BeesWax]

Steph Curry played in the same conference. College basketball is a more level playing field now that players in the top conferences leave after Freshman year. Toppin took a wrecking ball to experienced players.

The difference I see is Curry played 11 top 25 teams in his last two years at Davidson and Toppin played 4 the last two years. Also I don't worry as much about guards because the size and athletic ability difference is not as huge at the mid majors as it is with bigs. Maybe he pans out but this lack of competition against the top level bigs raises red flags for me.

[wilson115]

I think the best post defender is Gobert and he was a first round knockout.

By two points in a game seven. Nope.

[BigSlam]

Who is the most overrated draft prospect?

The situation: Polling execs and scouts for overrated prospects is much easier, with multiple players at the top of draft boards getting votes.

League insiders' picks:

Dayton's Obi Toppin

Toppin was the most popular pick here. While insiders find him intriguing, they don't see the 22-year-old as a prospect who belongs at the top of the lottery.

"I think he's a good player and I like him and he had an unbelievable year, but this consensus top-five status he's obtained is weird to me," an Eastern Conference scout said.

"If Obi Toppin is gonna go in the top five, that's overrated," an Eastern Conference executive said.

"I don't know when I watch him that I'm convinced he can replicate what he's doing now in an NBA game," a Western Conference scout said. "I think he's a tweener."

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[KGdaBom]

Frank Kaminsky also had elite offensive efficiency, higher than Obi. Substitute straight line athleticism for BBIQ and it feels like they have similar attributes.

I checked efficiency for each.
Kaminsky .573 Efg
Toppin .679 Efg

Toppin much higher. What efficiency stat are you using?

[yosemiteben]

Frank Kaminsky also had elite offensive efficiency, higher than Obi. Substitute straight line athleticism for BBIQ and it feels like they have similar attributes.

I checked efficiency for each.
Kaminsky .573 Efg
Toppin .679 Efg

Toppin much higher. What efficiency stat are you using?

ORTG per possession. Believe that's what MI was using because it put Toppin at 1.2.

[KGdaBom]

Frank Kaminsky also had elite offensive efficiency, higher than Obi. Substitute straight line athleticism for BBIQ and it feels like they have similar attributes.

I checked efficiency for each.
Kaminsky .573 Efg
Toppin .679 Efg

Toppin much higher. What efficiency stat are you using?

ORTG per possession. Believe that's what MI was using because it put Toppin at 1.2.

Basketball reference is my go to site for stats. They don't even provide that stat so they must not find it very important. I don't see how Kaminsky can have a higher ORTG if it's points per possession than Toppin when Toppin dominates him in Efg. What ORTG did you find for Kaminsky? I wonder if MI had all that right. It just seems weird that Toppin can more than double Harden's NBA points per possession.