A closer look at our road record this year!!

[PhillyPhilly]

We're all pissed off with how the season ended. Brett's gone, folks want EB gone and want the roster to be torn down...but the question I'm asking is our roster as "bad" as folks think it is or were there mitigating circumstances behind this season being a disappointment? Well I decided to look at the season in detail.

Our home record this year was historically good!!..only losing two games and beating the vast majority of contenders who came to Well Fargo...so that doesn't even need to be explained. But what about the road record? Here are the facts..

1. Pistons= won 111-117 no Embiid
2. Atlanta= won 103-105 and had a full strength roster
3. Blazers= won 128-129 no Embiid
4. Suns= lost 114-109 no Embiid
5. Jazz= lost 106-104 and had a full strength roster
6. Denver= lost 100-97 no Simmons
7. Magic= lost 112-97 no Embiid
8. Thunder= lost 127-119 and had a full strength roster
9. Cavs= won 95-114 and had a full strength roster
10. Toronto= lost 101-96 and had a full strength roster
11. Knicks= won 95-101 and had no Richardson or Horford
12. Washington= lost 119-113 no Richardson
13. Celtics= won 109-115 no Horford
13. Nets= lost 109-89 no Embiid
14. Pistons won 109-125 and had a full strength roster
15. Magic lost 98-97 had starting five but no Matisse
16. Heat= lost 117-116 had starting five but no Matisse
17. Pacers= lost 115-97 no Embiid and Matisse
18. Rockets= lost 118-108 all played apart from Matisse
19. Dallas= lost 109-91 no Embiid
20. Pacers= lost 101-95 no Embiid
21. Knicks= won 87-95 no Embiid
22. Nets= won 111-117 no Embiid
23. Toronto= lost 107-95 no Embiid and Richardson left the game injured at four minutes
24. Atlanta= lost 127-117 no Richardson and Horford
25. Boston= lost 116-95 no Richardson
26. Miami= lost 137-106 no Richardson
27. Bucks= lost 112-101 no Richardson
28. Bucks= lost 119-98 no Horford and Simmons left the game injured at five minutes
29. Cavs= lost 108-94 no Simmons and Embiid left the game injured at eight minutes
30. Clippers= lost 136-130 no Simmons and Embiid and Richardson leaves the game injured at ten minutes
31. Lakers= lost 120-107 no Simmons, Embiid and Richardson
32. Kings= won 108-125 no Simmons, Embiid and Richardson
33. Warriors= lost 118-114 no Simmons, Embiid and Richardson

Won= 10
Lost= 23

In those 33 road games we had before the season shut down our starting five started just NINE GAMES!!..the rest of the 24 games as you can see either Ben, Joel or Richardson were missing and at one point ALL three were out. Infact out of the 33 games Ben or Joel were missing for SEVENTEEN of those fixtures!!..and it's really more than that because both Joel and Ben left other games after five and ten minutes with injury.

Then we get to the playoffs and Ben gets injured again. So as much as we moan about the roster!!..how many teams in this league could cope with their best players consistency missing games I don't think there's many.

[stormi]

It's not as bleak as it seems, it's just painful because it should be so much better than it currently is. Even last year's iteration of the Sixers is the best team in the conference clearly.

[76ciology]

People view things as black and win, rather than shades of grey.

Nobody has much time like you to look at each boxscore and see who sat out each of those games

[PhillyPhilly]

People view things as black and win, rather than shades of grey.

Nobody has much time like you to look at each boxscore and see who sat out each of those games

Lol i actually looked over the scores over these last two days when i found time...there was no way i was researching this in one go .

The fact is folks love to blame Brand and the fo for the roster but that very same roster had a historic home record and on the road Brett's poor coaching, along with consistent injuries to our best players, really killed our season in the end. The team could never get a good run of games together.

[youngcrev]

Injuries were an issue all year, not just on the road, so that does nothing to explain the home/away win differential. The starters were only available for 10 of the home games.

What was their record in the 9 away games that the starters played?

[youngcrev]

People view things as black and win, rather than shades of grey.

Nobody has much time like you to look at each boxscore and see who sat out each of those games

Lol i actually looked over the scores over these last two days when i found time...there was no way i was researching this in one go .

The fact is folks love to blame Brand and the fo for the roster but that very same roster had a historic home record and on the road Brett's poor coaching, along with consistent injuries to our best players, really killed our season in the end. The team could never get a good run of games together.

So was Brett an amazing coach during home games then? Does it matter that they were also missing during home games? I just don't see how that explains the differential. I'm not sure what does explain it

[sixers4real]

OP, you’re right.

But we were still not Going to win the title with that group and with BB. Time for a chance. Again.

[TTP]

People view things as black and win, rather than shades of grey.

Nobody has much time like you to look at each boxscore and see who sat out each of those games

Lol i actually looked over the scores over these last two days when i found time...there was no way i was researching this in one go .

The fact is folks love to blame Brand and the fo for the roster but that very same roster had a historic home record and on the road Brett's poor coaching, along with consistent injuries to our best players, really killed our season in the end. The team could never get a good run of games together.

So was Brett an amazing coach during home games then? Does it matter that they were also missing during home games? I just don't see how that explains the differential. I'm not sure what does explain it

It's probably a lot of noise. Morey said similar on a recent RTRS podcast.

[PhillyPhilly]

Injuries were an issue all year, not just on the road, so that does nothing to explain the home/away win differential. The starters were only available for 10 of the home games.

What was their record in the 9 away games that the starters played?

Er the injuries were mostly on the road because our starting five, plus Ben and Joel, played way more games together at home...that's just a fact. If you think only having your starting five play nine games on the road isn't one of the main reasons why we were so bad away from fargo then I guess there's no reason to even have a starting five seeing as that's apparently not important smh.

[youngcrev]

Injuries were an issue all year, not just on the road, so that does nothing to explain the home/away win differential. The starters were only available for 10 of the home games.

What was their record in the 9 away games that the starters played?

Er the injuries were mostly on the road because our starting five, plus Ben and Joel, played way more games together at home...that's just a fact. If you think only having your starting five play nine games on the road isn't one of the main reasons why we were so bad away from fargo then I guess there's no reason to even have a starting five seeing as that's apparently not important smh.

If it's a fact then post how many home games together.

[Eyeamok]

Lol i actually looked over the scores over these last two days when i found time...there was no way i was researching this in one go .

The fact is folks love to blame Brand and the fo for the roster but that very same roster had a historic home record and on the road Brett's poor coaching, along with consistent injuries to our best players, really killed our season in the end. The team could never get a good run of games together.

So was Brett an amazing coach during home games then? Does it matter that they were also missing during home games? I just don't see how that explains the differential. I'm not sure what does explain it

It's probably a lot of noise. Morey said similar on a recent RTRS podcast.

Excuse me could you expound on your statement. You always seem to have insightful things to add. What exactly are you saying here? Thank you.

[TTP]

So was Brett an amazing coach during home games then? Does it matter that they were also missing during home games? I just don't see how that explains the differential. I'm not sure what does explain it

It's probably a lot of noise. Morey said similar on a recent RTRS podcast.

Excuse me could you expound on your statement. You always seem to have insightful things to add. What exactly are you saying here? Thank you.

I mean that you can probably attribute much of the differential to randomness, which humans historically have been really bad about trying to interpret, oftentimes trying to provide explanations for mostly random events. There's obviously a small edge to being the home team but there's just not going to be a reasonable explanation for a team being 31-4 at home and 12-26 on the road.

Here's a link to the part of the RTRS podcast where they ask Daryl Morey about it and his response is: "one thing that's good for you, and if you had Sam (Hinkie) on he'd tell you this - those home/road splits are mostly nonsense, so like randomly whether your 3s went in and **** like that". He did say that he'd have to look specifically at the Sixers to see if there's more. He also went on to say that other than maybe the high altitude teams (Utah/Denver), there's never been a consistent home/road edge, and even those edges are really small.

Regardless, I'd recommend listening to the whole interview if you haven't. Morey is a top tier GM and gives good insight into various topics.

https://youtu.be/CQE1yhDV3Hc?t=3681

[PhillyPhilly]

Injuries were an issue all year, not just on the road, so that does nothing to explain the home/away win differential. The starters were only available for 10 of the home games.

What was their record in the 9 away games that the starters played?

Er the injuries were mostly on the road because our starting five, plus Ben and Joel, played way more games together at home...that's just a fact. If you think only having your starting five play nine games on the road isn't one of the main reasons why we were so bad away from fargo then I guess there's no reason to even have a starting five seeing as that's apparently not important smh.

If it's a fact then post how many home games together.

Google it yourself.

[TTP]

The first thing I always look at when trying to identify potential NBA randomness is 3 point shooting percentages. Here are the 3 playoff teams with the largest home/road differential, as well as a 4th team that had a nearly identical home/road record, and their 3 point shooting splits:


76ers (31-4 at home, 12-26 on the road)
76ers Home 3P% = 38.2%
Opponent 3P% = 33.8%

76ers Road 3P% = 35.9%
Opponent 3P% = 36.9%


Heat (29-7 at home, 15-22 on the road)
Heat Home 3P% = 39.7%
Opponent 3P% = 33.7%

Heat Road 3P% = 36.1%
Opponent 3P% = 35.5%


Blazers (21-15 at home, 14-24 on the road)
Blazers Home 3P% = 39.4%
Opponent 3P% = 36.2%

Blazers Road 3P% = 36.2%
Opponent 3P% = 37.3%


Raptors (26-10 at home, 27-9 on the road)
Raptors Home 3P% = 38.0%
Opponent 3P% = 34.8%

Raptors Road 3P% = 36.7%
Opponent 3P% = 32.5%


All three teams with a much better home record shot considerably better from 3 than their opponents at home, and worse than their opponents from 3 on the road. The team with the similar home/road record, the Raptors, had a much higher 3P% than their opponents both at home and on the road, and the differential for each was fairly similar.

Sixers opponents had the greatest road/home 3P% split of the teams, shooting 3.1% better at home than on the road. So you have the Sixers shooting 4.4% better from 3 at home compared to road, and their opponents shooting 3.1% worse at the WFC compared to their own arena, for an effective 7.5% difference. The Heat had a 5.4% difference. The Blazers had a 4.3% difference. The Raptors had a -1.0% difference. All of that seems to correlate with each of their records.

I'm sure someone smarter than me could make more of this, but I'm not concerned at all going forward.

[76ciology]

Shooting is factor, so does key guys missing more games away than at home. But personally I think it’s more about key guys missing games.

Three stretches where I wished we had a complete team was when we were looking really good and winning then Biid got suspended with his fight against KAT.

The second is when Ben finally got aggressive where I think we won games against the Lakers and the Celtics. Biid wasn’t playing due to some injury.

Then lastly, Ben got injured in the bubble when we probably had the best offense before the playoffs started during that bubble stretch.

Anyway.. it’s not really black and white. Life have several known and unknown factors. And for me, injuries and the teams shooting better at home played its part.

I mean.. if you listen to JJ, he talked about the floor at wells fargo being colder than other arenas because they played hockey on that same flooring. So that could also make a difference similar to high altitude places.

[youngcrev]

Er the injuries were mostly on the road because our starting five, plus Ben and Joel, played way more games together at home...that's just a fact. If you think only having your starting five play nine games on the road isn't one of the main reasons why we were so bad away from fargo then I guess there's no reason to even have a starting five seeing as that's apparently not important smh.

If it's a fact then post how many home games together.

Google it yourself.

Ok, I did look it up. Using nba.com lineup data, pre-covid shutdown all 5 original starters played 10 (not 9) road games together, and 12 home games together. So not only was your assumption wrong, the stuff you actually tried to look up was wrong too.

[PhillyPhilly]

If it's a fact then post how many home games together.

Google it yourself.

Ok, I did look it up. Using nba.com lineup data, pre-covid shutdown all 5 original starters played 10 (not 9) road games together, and 12 home games together. So not only was your assumption wrong, the stuff you actually tried to look up was wrong too.

Lol er my point in the op wasn't just about the starting five though..it was about Ben, Josh and Joe INDIVIDUALLY missing games too...which happened less at home...but nice try buddy

[youngcrev]

Google it yourself.

Ok, I did look it up. Using nba.com lineup data, pre-covid shutdown all 5 original starters played 10 (not 9) road games together, and 12 home games together. So not only was your assumption wrong, the stuff you actually tried to look up was wrong too.

Lol er my point in the op wasn't just about the starting five though..it was about Ben, Josh and Joe INDIVIDUALLY missing games too...which happened less at home...but nice try buddy

Where did that goal post go? Keeps moving on me.

Our home record this year was historically good!!..only losing two games and beating the vast majority of contenders who came to Well Fargo...so that doesn't even need to be explained

You even say in the original post that you didn't bother to look at home games because they played so well there.... Which was a nonsensical approach when trying to find why they played so poorly since you're not actually looking at what changed.

You brought up injuries and bad coaching, ignoring that the injuries and coaching were a constant in both home and road.

Simmons played 27 home games and 30 away games
Embiid played in 28 home game and 23 away games
Richardson played in 26 home games and 29 road games

Didn't exactly take long to look this stuff up. But if you want to keep doubling down by making faulty assumptions because you're too lazy to actually look it up, keep at it.

[Eyeamok]

Ok, I did look it up. Using nba.com lineup data, pre-covid shutdown all 5 original starters played 10 (not 9) road games together, and 12 home games together. So not only was your assumption wrong, the stuff you actually tried to look up was wrong too.

Lol er my point in the op wasn't just about the starting five though..it was about Ben, Josh and Joe INDIVIDUALLY missing games too...which happened less at home...but nice try buddy

Where did that goal post go? Keeps moving on me.

Our home record this year was historically good!!..only losing two games and beating the vast majority of contenders who came to Well Fargo...so that doesn't even need to be explained

You even say in the original post that you didn't bother to look at home games because they played so well there.... Which was a nonsensical approach when trying to find why they played so poorly since you're not actually looking at what changed.

You brought up injuries and bad coaching, ignoring that the injuries and coaching were a constant in both home and road.

Simmons played 27 home games and 30 away games
Embiid played in 28 home game and 23 away games
Richardson played in 26 home games and 29 road games

Didn't exactly take long to look this stuff up. But if you want to keep doubling down by making faulty assumptions because you're too lazy to actually look it up, keep at it.

Right here is where I want to say can't we all get along ?! Both of you have good points. But I won't. Let's hope it does not take up to many pages.

[PhillyPhilly]

Ok, I did look it up. Using nba.com lineup data, pre-covid shutdown all 5 original starters played 10 (not 9) road games together, and 12 home games together. So not only was your assumption wrong, the stuff you actually tried to look up was wrong too.

Lol er my point in the op wasn't just about the starting five though..it was about Ben, Josh and Joe INDIVIDUALLY missing games too...which happened less at home...but nice try buddy

Where did that goal post go? Keeps moving on me.

Our home record this year was historically good!!..only losing two games and beating the vast majority of contenders who came to Well Fargo...so that doesn't even need to be explained

You even say in the original post that you didn't bother to look at home games because they played so well there.... Which was a nonsensical approach when trying to find why they played so poorly since you're not actually looking at what changed.

You brought up injuries and bad coaching, ignoring that the injuries and coaching were a constant in both home and road.

Simmons played 27 home games and 30 away games
Embiid played in 28 home game and 23 away games
Richardson played in 26 home games and 29 road games

Didn't exactly take long to look this stuff up. But if you want to keep doubling down by making faulty assumptions because you're too lazy to actually look it up, keep at it.

Lol dude is talking about "goalpost" but then tries to put words in my mouth regarding me looking at the home stats? Smh. It's obviously more tougher to win on the road than at home..so logic suggests you need your full arsenal on the road much more than you do in your home comforts. The bottom line is the team never had a chance to properly gel..so blaming the season's failure totally on the roster is foolhardy.