How Good is Jimmy Butler?

[beeshma]

I think that "weakest champions" needs a bit more perspective before you can claim that. If Bam, Herro and others turn out to be exceptional players then we'll look back at this like Kawhi's 2014 championship with the Spurs. Back then his reputation was nothing special either but with more context we can see how strong a contributor he was. Same will be true for Bam and Herro is they end up becoming perennial all stars.

The 94/95 Rockets were the last team to win the title and have a SRS (Simple Rating System) as lower than the Heat. The vast majority of champions were 2x the Heat's SRS or more. I used SRS because it was the best metric I could find to rate team quality on basketball reference, but I'm open to looking into some other dimension.

The Heat were the 15th best offense and 10th best defense this year. It's pretty rare to win at title without being elite on one of those ends and top 10 on the other.

They're playing great in the playoffs and I'm absolutely pulling for them to win, but they're definitely not a team that you'd look at as having traditional championship qualities or even remotely close to that. Of course, that is part of the great things in sports. It doesn't matter if someone thinks your qualities are this that or the other, what matters is what you prove on the court in the playoffs.

That is an interesting question to ask... why are the Heat playing above their SRS level. I have heard announcers claim that the Heat practiced regularly during the pandemic and were therefore in a better position to excel when play resumed in the bubble. And so this may be a 1 year over-achievement which gave them a huge advantage over other teams.

[Mech Engineer]

Crowder, Herro, Dragic are all looking like all stars because Jimmy is not your typical superstar looking at his stat sheet as soon as the game is over.

The only other stud is Bam on defense. His wingspan and length lets them play zone defense and he can cover both the pick and the roll on a pick and roll. He is amazing on defense for this era.

The Heat have not had any easy path...they have faced 2 good teams in the 1st two rounds. Just because he doesn't have a flashy offensive game seems to cloud a lot of evaluations like how people pick PG over Jimmy.

[2018C3]

One thing that makes Jimmy a special asset, Is his work ethic shows younger players that anything is possible. In-order to first get into this league, everyone has to have talent.

Jimmy shows people where that initial talent can take you if you are willing to outwork other players.

The guy did not come into this league as a star. But through hard work and grit. once his playing days are done, he will leave as one.

The day he was traded, I was somewhat on board with the return, but I also said we may regret this one.

I also made a post on the Minny board and told them they got one heck of a player. I thought the trade may work out for both teams in different circumstances, it turns out It may have not worked out for either.

[Leslie Forman]

The 94/95 Rockets were the last team to win the title and have a SRS (Simple Rating System) as lower than the Heat. The vast majority of champions were 2x the Heat's SRS or more. I used SRS because it was the best metric I could find to rate team quality on basketball reference, but I'm open to looking into some other dimension.

Well to be fair, in absolute terms, their SRS was nothing special, but in terms of league ranking, they were 8th - same as the 2011 Mavs. That's arguably more important, since you are just playing the teams of your own season.

And really, nobody expects them to beat the Lakers. Plenty of Finals losers have had pretty low SRS numbers. Hell the 2018 Cavs were basically a barely .500 team according to it.

[dougthonus]

That is an interesting question to ask... why are the Heat playing above their SRS level. I have heard announcers claim that the Heat practiced regularly during the pandemic and were therefore in a better position to excel when play resumed in the bubble. And so this may be a 1 year over-achievement which gave them a huge advantage over other teams.

Some other thoughts:
1: They were better than the Pacers and favored in that series, plus the Pacers had injuries which made them worse than they would have been even if healthy. The Heat's win there, and even the sweep, were not crazy.

2: The Bucks played WAY below their regular season ability the entire time in the bubble and in the first round. I'm not sure what happened there, but they were not playing at their level or close to it. Despite that, they still beat a team that was heavily favored. People thought the Bucks (and Clippers) would turn it on even though they played poorly all bubble, but they didn't

3: They added some pieces like Iguodala an Crowder whom weren't there teh whole time and added something possible.

4: They also have a lot of young / improving players that simply are at a point in their career where they may actually be much better today than they were at even mid season.

Will be interesting to see how they do as a team next season (And the rest of this one of course).

[2018C3]

As it stands, the heat have been a absolute wrecking ball storming though the eastern conference payoffs. Sitting back, you just have to respect what they are doing. They are on fire! (Old 1990's era Nba Jam reference).

[HomoSapien]

Some other thoughts:
1: They were better than the Pacers and favored in that series, plus the Pacers had injuries which made them worse than they would have been even if healthy. The Heat's win there, and even the sweep, were not crazy.

Worth mentioning that Kendrick Nunn only played 14 minutes against the Pacers due to complications with Covid. Since then, he's still been a shadow of his old self.

[Mech Engineer]

Some other thoughts:
1: They were better than the Pacers and favored in that series, plus the Pacers had injuries which made them worse than they would have been even if healthy. The Heat's win there, and even the sweep, were not crazy.

Worth mentioning that Kendrick Nunn only played 14 minutes against the Pacers due to complications with Covid. Since then, he's still been a shadow of his old self.

And, didn't Jimmy injure his shoulder?

[2018C3]

If the heat make it to the finals, I never thought I would ever say this. But I will be rooting for them.

Traditionally the Heat are on my list of most disliked teams, only second to the Knicks. But with Jimmy leading the charge, it's hard for me not to root for him.

[transplant]

I remember making the Butler-Leonard comp when Leonard was with the Spurs. They were pretty much even until Leonard led the Spurs to a championship. Leonard solidified his dominance when he led the Raptors to the title. Butler is working himself back into that discussion. He's an elite two-way player, and I'll be damned if he isn't turning out to be an elite team leader.

[Susan]

He is the best player Pax and company ever drafted.

The only reason he was considered a head case, is he had a wining attitude this organization did not embrace or support. He rubbed the old system in place the wrong way, and became the guy when he wasn't supposed to be the guy.

I love Jimmy's attitude, and will root for him!

In Chicago he never had a team built around his skills. Were now seeing what he can do in that role.

Exactly.

Jimmy was never actually a head case. He rubs people wrong because he doesn't settle for people not working as hard as they possibly can to win. Much like Jordan (I'm not saying he's MJ) you love having a dog like him on your side, but you're probably not going to be his best friend if you're not trying to match his intensity.

The only times he has cohesiveness issues is when he's in an atmosphere where people aren't willing to grind like him. In Chicago, he openly criticized Hoiberg's work ethic, which in hindsight was warranted. Minnesota, he rubbed the organization wrong, because their two stars are lazy and don't work hard. In Philly, it was said that he had an issue with a player or players for the same issue. Looking back on it now, it seems that may have been Simmons.

You never hear any stories like that coming out of Miami, because they've built a team that's full of players willing to grind, a FO who supports paying what it takes to build a contender, and a coach that is battle tested and knows what it takes to make a title run. I miss Jimmy, but I'm happy for him, because he wasn't getting any of that here.

Jimmy rubs people wrong because he is an ****.

Great player though.

Don't compare him to Jordan. "Wanting to win" isn't unique. Being able to put a team on your back game after game is a different level and is unique.

Jimmy doesn't mesh well with losers.

Hoiberg/Gar
Wiggins/Kat
Brent Brown/Simmons

Riley knew what he had and Riley's got a handful of rings for a reason.

[MrSparkle]

Well, the one big dragon, I mean Dragic in the room...

Goran basically was treated like a retiring rehab project for the regular season. Played low reserve minutes, stayed healthy, kept working on his body, and is unleashed in his full 2017 Slovenien Euro Championship form since entering the bubble. The guy has been at 19 PER these playoffs, a jump from 16 in the reg. season (and 13 last year). He's averaging 22/5/5 on strong FG percentages. This guy couldn't be dumped for cap-space last summer.

BTW - I have been mentioning this almost every year since GarPax got GM jobs, but why do the Bulls never spend their FA money on absorbing deals? You'd think for a cheap team they'd be all over absorbing salary with sweetener. Was locking up Thad and Sato that much more worth it than taking Goran's expiring, for example? Another guy that came to mind was Al Jefferson a long time ago - Minnesota dumped him on Utah. Shorter contract, better player for those 1-2 years (than Boozer). Better flexibility, better player short-term. I don't get it. But I digress.

Goran's scoring production puts the Heat a notch above their reg. season selves, when they were primarily a defensive team. Now they have a significant clutch shooting threat alongside Jimmy and Herro. So this is why I think you have to take their reg. season metrics with a grain of salt. With Crowder and Goran turning back the clock and playing like their prime selves, that's a big boost for an otherwise younger team. If Miami closes out, I think Iguodala might have a 5th gear against he can access against Lebron, atleast in spot minutes. This is the way it goes with these classy vets who stay in shape. Their consistency might take a hike, but if you carve their role, make them comfortable, and wait for the playoffs which space games, especially with no travel... They're big x-factors.

[kodo]

The Heat vs Milwaukee was always going to be bad for MIL even before that series started. A number of writers questioned if Bud's defense, which is 30th in the league in giving up 3s, can work in the playoffs. And this wasn't during the playoffs, this was early into the season. The Heat were the #1 3P accuracy team pre bubble. It was a bad matchup for Milwaukee, as if there were any good matchups in terms of teams that are terrible at 3s but still playoff caliber. LAL is the only one that comes to mind. Even with Giannis healthy next year and they torch the RS again, I still question if the strategy of "let's give up as many 3s as possible" will get a title in today's NBA.

VS Boston, it's a cliche but a few bounces going the other way and it's easily 2-0 in favor of Boston. It's 54.7% eFG vs 54.3% eFG, it's really a tighter series than it seems.

I think the big question will be if Goran can keep up a 27/5/5 statline of production, because that's superstar level of playoff production considering the insane efficiency of 55%/46%/100% shooting. Those #s are better than Steph Curry from last season. If Goran continues to be Steph level good, yeah the Heat are on another level.

[Mech Engineer]

Exactly.

Jimmy was never actually a head case. He rubs people wrong because he doesn't settle for people not working as hard as they possibly can to win. Much like Jordan (I'm not saying he's MJ) you love having a dog like him on your side, but you're probably not going to be his best friend if you're not trying to match his intensity.

The only times he has cohesiveness issues is when he's in an atmosphere where people aren't willing to grind like him. In Chicago, he openly criticized Hoiberg's work ethic, which in hindsight was warranted. Minnesota, he rubbed the organization wrong, because their two stars are lazy and don't work hard. In Philly, it was said that he had an issue with a player or players for the same issue. Looking back on it now, it seems that may have been Simmons.

You never hear any stories like that coming out of Miami, because they've built a team that's full of players willing to grind, a FO who supports paying what it takes to build a contender, and a coach that is battle tested and knows what it takes to make a title run. I miss Jimmy, but I'm happy for him, because he wasn't getting any of that here.

Jimmy rubs people wrong because he is an ****.

Great player though.

Don't compare him to Jordan. "Wanting to win" isn't unique. Being able to put a team on your back game after game is a different level and is unique.

Jimmy doesn't mesh well with losers.

Hoiberg/Gar
Wiggins/Kat
Brent Brown/Simmons

Riley knew what he had and Riley's got a handful of rings for a reason.

Look at what happened to Wiggins who could have taken over at the wing spot. And, I don't even want to talk about Hoiberg. Philly is probably going to make changes.

Jimmy might have issues but we don't have any proof of it yet. All the past events proves he was right.

This is the NBA where people do anything to win. I just don't get the animosity towards Jimmy when the same things done by others are celebrated as winning attitude.

[beeshma]

That is an interesting question to ask... why are the Heat playing above their SRS level. I have heard announcers claim that the Heat practiced regularly during the pandemic and were therefore in a better position to excel when play resumed in the bubble. And so this may be a 1 year over-achievement which gave them a huge advantage over other teams.

Some other thoughts:
1: They were better than the Pacers and favored in that series, plus the Pacers had injuries which made them worse than they would have been even if healthy. The Heat's win there, and even the sweep, were not crazy.

2: The Bucks played WAY below their regular season ability the entire time in the bubble and in the first round. I'm not sure what happened there, but they were not playing at their level or close to it. Despite that, they still beat a team that was heavily favored. People thought the Bucks (and Clippers) would turn it on even though they played poorly all bubble, but they didn't

3: They added some pieces like Iguodala an Crowder whom weren't there teh whole time and added something possible.

4: They also have a lot of young / improving players that simply are at a point in their career where they may actually be much better today than they were at even mid season.

Will be interesting to see how they do as a team next season (And the rest of this one of course).

3. Crowder has been huge for them and Igoudala adds that championship confidence. Also they subtracted Justice Winslow which may be a case of addition by subtraction. Also improved their locker room by getting ride of Dion Waiters.
4. Herro is absolutely better now than he was mid-season.

[Jvaughn]

He is the best player Pax and company ever drafted.

The only reason he was considered a head case, is he had a wining attitude this organization did not embrace or support. He rubbed the old system in place the wrong way, and became the guy when he wasn't supposed to be the guy.

I love Jimmy's attitude, and will root for him!

In Chicago he never had a team built around his skills. Were now seeing what he can do in that role.

Exactly.

Jimmy was never actually a head case. He rubs people wrong because he doesn't settle for people not working as hard as they possibly can to win. Much like Jordan (I'm not saying he's MJ) you love having a dog like him on your side, but you're probably not going to be his best friend if you're not trying to match his intensity.

The only times he has cohesiveness issues is when he's in an atmosphere where people aren't willing to grind like him. In Chicago, he openly criticized Hoiberg's work ethic, which in hindsight was warranted. Minnesota, he rubbed the organization wrong, because their two stars are lazy and don't work hard. In Philly, it was said that he had an issue with a player or players for the same issue. Looking back on it now, it seems that may have been Simmons.

You never hear any stories like that coming out of Miami, because they've built a team that's full of players willing to grind, a FO who supports paying what it takes to build a contender, and a coach that is battle tested and knows what it takes to make a title run. I miss Jimmy, but I'm happy for him, because he wasn't getting any of that here.

Jimmy rubs people wrong because he is an ****.

Great player though.

Don't compare him to Jordan. "Wanting to win" isn't unique. Being able to put a team on your back game after game is a different level and is unique.

I clearly said he wasn't MJ. The comparison was because they both rubbed teammates the wrong way with their competitive nature. They're nowhere near comparable as players. Jimmy didn't all of a sudden just start bring super nice to players. He went to an organization that has the correct culture and support that fit in with his drive. He's on an unselfish team with hard workers who are willing to put in the effort and time that he does. You only hear bad stories about Jimmy when he's dealing with organizations and players who aren't willing to do what it takes to win. That was my point.

[Stratmaster]

Exactly.

Jimmy was never actually a head case. He rubs people wrong because he doesn't settle for people not working as hard as they possibly can to win. Much like Jordan (I'm not saying he's MJ) you love having a dog like him on your side, but you're probably not going to be his best friend if you're not trying to match his intensity.

The only times he has cohesiveness issues is when he's in an atmosphere where people aren't willing to grind like him. In Chicago, he openly criticized Hoiberg's work ethic, which in hindsight was warranted. Minnesota, he rubbed the organization wrong, because their two stars are lazy and don't work hard. In Philly, it was said that he had an issue with a player or players for the same issue. Looking back on it now, it seems that may have been Simmons.

You never hear any stories like that coming out of Miami, because they've built a team that's full of players willing to grind, a FO who supports paying what it takes to build a contender, and a coach that is battle tested and knows what it takes to make a title run. I miss Jimmy, but I'm happy for him, because he wasn't getting any of that here.

Jimmy rubs people wrong because he is an ****.

Great player though.

Don't compare him to Jordan. "Wanting to win" isn't unique. Being able to put a team on your back game after game is a different level and is unique.

I clearly said he wasn't MJ. The comparison was because they both rubbed teammates the wrong way with their competitive nature. They're nowhere near comparable as players. Jimmy didn't all of a sudden just start bring super nice to players. He went to an organization that has the correct culture and support that fit in with his drive. He's on an unselfish team with hard workers who are willing to put in the effort and time that he does. You only hear bad stories about Jimmy when he's dealing with organizations and players who aren't willing to do what it takes to win. That was my point.

I didn't say you called him MJ, I said don't compare him to MJ.

Jimmy is likely growing up, and also is smart enough to realize that if he did in Miami what he did 3 previous times he likely was done having any chance of ever joining a champion level team.

But, I get your position. My only point is Jimmy rubs people the wrong way because he is an ****. People don't dislike players for wanting to win. They dislike players who are pricks.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

[Chi town]

Jimmy rubs people wrong because he is an ****.

Great player though.

Don't compare him to Jordan. "Wanting to win" isn't unique. Being able to put a team on your back game after game is a different level and is unique.

I clearly said he wasn't MJ. The comparison was because they both rubbed teammates the wrong way with their competitive nature. They're nowhere near comparable as players. Jimmy didn't all of a sudden just start bring super nice to players. He went to an organization that has the correct culture and support that fit in with his drive. He's on an unselfish team with hard workers who are willing to put in the effort and time that he does. You only hear bad stories about Jimmy when he's dealing with organizations and players who aren't willing to do what it takes to win. That was my point.

I didn't say you called him MJ, I said don't compare him to MJ.

Jimmy is likely growing up, and also is smart enough to realize that if he did in Miami what he did 3 previous times he likely was done having any chance of ever joining a champion level team.

But, I get your position. My only point is Jimmy rubs people the wrong way because he is an ****. People don't dislike players for wanting to win. They dislike players who are pricks.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

Good to see you back Strat! Hope to see more from you when new coach and draft rolls around. Your input is great!

[TheGOATRises007]

Jimmy rubs people wrong because he is an ****.

Great player though.

Don't compare him to Jordan. "Wanting to win" isn't unique. Being able to put a team on your back game after game is a different level and is unique.

I clearly said he wasn't MJ. The comparison was because they both rubbed teammates the wrong way with their competitive nature. They're nowhere near comparable as players. Jimmy didn't all of a sudden just start bring super nice to players. He went to an organization that has the correct culture and support that fit in with his drive. He's on an unselfish team with hard workers who are willing to put in the effort and time that he does. You only hear bad stories about Jimmy when he's dealing with organizations and players who aren't willing to do what it takes to win. That was my point.

I didn't say you called him MJ, I said don't compare him to MJ.

Jimmy is likely growing up, and also is smart enough to realize that if he did in Miami what he did 3 previous times he likely was done having any chance of ever joining a champion level team.

But, I get your position. My only point is Jimmy rubs people the wrong way because he is an ****. People don't dislike players for wanting to win. They dislike players who are pricks.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

Jordan was an even bigger prick than Butler though.

He punched Kerr in the face and riled teammates worse than Butler did.

[johnnyvann840]

Well, the one big dragon, I mean Dragic in the room...

Goran basically was treated like a retiring rehab project for the regular season. Played low reserve minutes, stayed healthy, kept working on his body, and is unleashed in his full 2017 Slovenien Euro Championship form since entering the bubble. The guy has been at 19 PER these playoffs, a jump from 16 in the reg. season (and 13 last year). He's averaging 22/5/5 on strong FG percentages. This guy couldn't be dumped for cap-space last summer.

BTW - I have been mentioning this almost every year since GarPax got GM jobs, but why do the Bulls never spend their FA money on absorbing deals? You'd think for a cheap team they'd be all over absorbing salary with sweetener. Was locking up Thad and Sato that much more worth it than taking Goran's expiring, for example? Another guy that came to mind was Al Jefferson a long time ago - Minnesota dumped him on Utah. Shorter contract, better player for those 1-2 years (than Boozer). Better flexibility, better player short-term. I don't get it. But I digress.

Goran's scoring production puts the Heat a notch above their reg. season selves, when they were primarily a defensive team. Now they have a significant clutch shooting threat alongside Jimmy and Herro. So this is why I think you have to take their reg. season metrics with a grain of salt. With Crowder and Goran turning back the clock and playing like their prime selves, that's a big boost for an otherwise younger team. If Miami closes out, I think Iguodala might have a 5th gear against he can access against Lebron, atleast in spot minutes. This is the way it goes with these classy vets who stay in shape. Their consistency might take a hike, but if you carve their role, make them comfortable, and wait for the playoffs which space games, especially with no travel... They're big x-factors.

Great point about the vets not having to travel added to the luxury of spaced out games and no back to backs. We are seeing some older players really shine in the Bubble Playoffs