Miami Heat Speculation Thread - 2020 and beyond...

[DayofMourning]

I do think Kelly will opt out. I think most players will opt in because of the uncertainty of the economy. If I was the Heat I would be looking to trade Olynyk for cap space to sign Ibaka. Only if they get a verbal agreement with Ibaka first. Ibaka and Bam front court would solve a lot of problems.

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Ibaka certainly would solve some problems.

Second guy mentioning Olynyk opting out. He's not making that much per year, so I wouldn't be surprised. Would open up some possibilites for us.

[RonaldSeikaly]

At age 34, it will be interesting to see if the Heat come to a mutual understanding of his value, and his role on the team.

Here's an excerpt from a Bleacher Report article:

"We'll see," Dragic said about signing the one-year deal. "A lot of different factors, my family, myself. I would say it's too soon to talk about it. I'm not thinking about my next contract. I've always been a guy in the present."

Read here.

These parties know each other real well. Both sides will recognize the value of Dragic's contributions. However, its in the team's best interests to have him take a one year deal, and then come back to the table next year. He's the sacrificial guy in terms of contracts. He's going to have to be willing to forego long term security and take the short term deals to allow the team to remain flexible. Big ask, but Goran seems like the kind of guy to do it.

The heat have learned their lesson, and have much better relations with players but i doubt the memory of what (is rumored to have) happened to wade when he left is completely forgotten. It certainly could create some skepticism for guys like jae and goran to take less money.


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[DayofMourning]

At age 34, it will be interesting to see if the Heat come to a mutual understanding of his value, and his role on the team.

Here's an excerpt from a Bleacher Report article:

"We'll see," Dragic said about signing the one-year deal. "A lot of different factors, my family, myself. I would say it's too soon to talk about it. I'm not thinking about my next contract. I've always been a guy in the present."

Read here.

These parties know each other real well. Both sides will recognize the value of Dragic's contributions. However, its in the team's best interests to have him take a one year deal, and then come back to the table next year. He's the sacrificial guy in terms of contracts. He's going to have to be willing to forego long term security and take the short term deals to allow the team to remain flexible. Big ask, but Goran seems like the kind of guy to do it.

The heat have learned their lesson, and have much better relations with players but i doubt the memory of what (is rumored to have) happened to wade when he left is completely forgotten. It certainly could create some skepticism for guys like jae and goran to take less money.


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I think Wade and Riley needed to have that breakup to realize what they had. Wade is fully back in the fold now, and I think that speaks volumes.

[BFRESH44]

I think some of you aren't quite aware of the current salary cap landscape of the NBA for the 2020 off-season. So allow me to paint the picture.

There are only 6 teams projected to have cap space under the current projection of a 109 million cap in the 2020 off-season:

Atlanta Hawks: $43.2 million
New York Knicks: $41.5 million
Detroit Pistons: $28.2 million
Charlotte Hornets: $22.5 million
Miami Heat: $20.9 million
Phoenix Suns: $18.9 million

And the Charlotte Hornets brass have already come out and said they aren't going to be a free agent players, and plan on using their cap as a bank for bad contract trades for assets. So now you're down to 5 teams. And then you factor in that damn near half the league is pressed up against the luxury tax, so they will have no money beyond a $5 million dollar tax payers mid level.

So basically it's us, and some bad teams with cap flexibility. Dragic and Crowder aren't going to bad teams at this point of their career.

So basically these guys are pretty limited , which puts us in good position to retain them, having their birds rights, for one year "ballon" payments. There are a couple handful of teams who will have the full non tax payers mid-level at their disposal, which is around 10 million a year over 4 years. But with the COVID revenue drops, a lot of these teams are going to operate with tight wallets.

So the idea that Kelly Olynyk is going to opt out of a possible guaranteed payout of $13 million? Slim to none. And the possibility of Dragic and Crowder being retained next year for significant 1 year deals? I'd say that's very possible.

The one guy that we might lose is Derrick Jones Jr., as some team will see a 23 year old hyper athletic wing defender with his best years ahead of him, and find him well worth the investment of the full non tax payers mid-level. But I think the Heat value DJJ tremendously, so that's one to watch.

You're going to see quite of few players take one year deals at the advisement of their agents, and dip back into the market for 2021, where there will be a bigger pool of teams with money to spend.

[DayofMourning]

Spoiler:

I think some of you aren't quite aware of the current salary cap landscape of the NBA for the 2020 off-season. So allow me to paint the picture.

There are only 6 teams projected to have cap space under the current projection of a 109 million cap in the 2020 off-season:

Atlanta Hawks: $43.2 million
New York Knicks: $41.5 million
Detroit Pistons: $28.2 million
Charlotte Hornets: $22.5 million
Miami Heat: $20.9 million
Phoenix Suns: $18.9 million

And the Charlotte Hornets brass have already come out and said they aren't going to be a free agent players, and plan on using their cap as a bank for bad contract trades for assets. So now you're down to 5 teams. And then you factor in that damn near half the league is pressed up against the luxury tax, so they will have no money beyond a $5 million dollar tax payers mid level.

So basically it's us, and some bad teams with cap flexibility. Dragic and Crowder aren't going to bad teams at this point of their career.

So basically these guys are pretty limited , which puts us in good position to retain them, having their birds rights, for one year "ballon" payments. There are a couple handful of teams who will have the full non tax payers mid-level at their disposal, which is around 10 million a year over 4 years. But with the COVID revenue drops, a lot of these teams are going to operate with tight wallets.

So the idea that Kelly Olynyk is going to opt out of a possible guaranteed payout of $13 million? Slim to none. And the possibility of Dragic and Crowder being retained next year for significant 1 year deals? I'd say that's very possible.

The one guy that we might lose is Derrick Jones Jr., as some team will see a 23 year old hyper athletic wing defender with his best years ahead of him, and find him well worth the investment of the full non tax payers mid-level. But I think the Heat value DJJ tremendously, so that's one to watch.

You're going to see quite of few players take one year deals at the advisement of their agents, and dip back into the market for 2021, where there will be a bigger pool of teams with money to spend.

Where're you getting your numbers from BF? I haven't really been monitoring other teams situations, but I usually go to spotrac for reference.

Here's their cap space teams:

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/2020/

[GameTime_3]

I know I'm going to sound dumb by saying this but.... If we go to the Finals(Big IF STILL) and beat LeBron, you have to believe UD & Riley will retire. I would love to win another title but as a HEAT fan who understands how much Riley has meant to this team, I fear the day he leaves. Spo and Co. are ready but the Don brings another level to the leadership team and I'm not ready to see him leave us just yet.

[jaseda510]

I know I'm going to sound dumb by saying this but.... If we go to the Finals(Big IF STILL) and beat LeBron, you have to believe UD & Riley will retire. I would love to win another title but as a HEAT fan who understands how much Riley has meant to this team, I fear the day he leaves. Spo and Co. are ready but the Don brings another level to the leadership team and I'm not ready to see him leave us just yet.

I think most Heat fans would take that scenario! A title is impossibly hard to win, and nobody will blame Riley or UD to sail off into the sunset if they get their 4th ring with the Heat, esp against LeBron.

It's kinda like Apple without Steve Jobs. The figurehead isn't there anymore but they have a strong foundation which puts them in position to succeed for years to come. D-Wade can make an appearance at every major free agent pitch since I'm sure he just wants to enjoy his life in LA. UD will definitely be offered a job in the Heat organization, and with Zo already being a part of the front office the Heat culture will live on.

[MartyCONLONNN]

I know I'm going to sound dumb by saying this but.... If we go to the Finals(Big IF STILL) and beat LeBron, you have to believe UD & Riley will retire. I would love to win another title but as a HEAT fan who understands how much Riley has meant to this team, I fear the day he leaves. Spo and Co. are ready but the Don brings another level to the leadership team and I'm not ready to see him leave us just yet.

I think most Heat fans would take that scenario! A title is impossibly hard to win, and nobody will blame Riley or UD to sail off into the sunset if they get their 4th ring with the Heat, esp against LeBron.

It's kinda like Apple without Steve Jobs. The figurehead isn't there anymore but they have a strong foundation which puts them in position to succeed for years to come. D-Wade can make an appearance at every major free agent pitch since I'm sure he just wants to enjoy his life in LA. UD will definitely be offered a job in the Heat organization, and with Zo already being a part of the front office the Heat culture will live on.

If we win that ring it's hard to imagine Riley not feeling fulfilled and walking away but I personally believe he has 1 last pitch remaining. 1 last speech that he's been planning to make unlike any other. And that is in the recruiting Giannis, letting him know that if he joins the Heat he knows he can walk away knowing he has found the player that can carry on his legacy, a player that is similarly, wildly driven as himself who really keeps the main thing the main thing.

Imagine Riley telling a player that he trusts you to be his ideological successor on the court flanked by Bam and Jimmy into creating a true generational team forward and into the ranks of the Celtics, Lakers and Spurs. Miami is a Giannis away from cementing themselves into that pantheon. We all know Riley wants to retire but we also know he wants that meeting badly and we know 2021 is what's been keeping him from walking away. A bubble ship would add to the legacy but it's also more ammunition for the longterm organizational goal.

[twix2500]

I know I'm going to sound dumb by saying this but.... If we go to the Finals(Big IF STILL) and beat LeBron, you have to believe UD & Riley will retire. I would love to win another title but as a HEAT fan who understands how much Riley has meant to this team, I fear the day he leaves. Spo and Co. are ready but the Don brings another level to the leadership team and I'm not ready to see him leave us just yet.

You're not sounding dumb, it is a rightful way to feel. Yes Riley put good people in the organization but it doesn't mean what he brings can be replaced. The organization will likely be put in the hands of Zo. I trust him but you never know.

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[RonaldSeikaly]

I know I'm going to sound dumb by saying this but.... If we go to the Finals(Big IF STILL) and beat LeBron, you have to believe UD & Riley will retire. I would love to win another title but as a HEAT fan who understands how much Riley has meant to this team, I fear the day he leaves. Spo and Co. are ready but the Don brings another level to the leadership team and I'm not ready to see him leave us just yet.

You're not sounding dumb, it is a rightful way to feel. Yes Riley put good people in the organization but it doesn't mean what he brings can be replaced. The organization will likely be put in the hands of Zo. I trust him but you never know.

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It’ll be the Spo and Elisberg show. Maybe Zo, Battier, or even Haslem could be the mediator or tie breaker if/when there is a disagreement. Spo is a better coach than Riley ever was, and Andy is a better evaluator (and much more creative trade partner)... but neither are the salesmen Riley is.


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[twix2500]

I know I'm going to sound dumb by saying this but.... If we go to the Finals(Big IF STILL) and beat LeBron, you have to believe UD & Riley will retire. I would love to win another title but as a HEAT fan who understands how much Riley has meant to this team, I fear the day he leaves. Spo and Co. are ready but the Don brings another level to the leadership team and I'm not ready to see him leave us just yet.

You're not sounding dumb, it is a rightful way to feel. Yes Riley put good people in the organization but it doesn't mean what he brings can be replaced. The organization will likely be put in the hands of Zo. I trust him but you never know.

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It’ll be the Spo and Elisberg show. Maybe Zo, Battier, or even Haslem could be the mediator or tie breaker if/when there is a disagreement. Spo is a better coach than Riley ever was, and Andy is a better evaluator (and much more creative trade partner)... but neither are the salesmen Riley is.


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I'm quite sure Zo will be offered the president position. Zo has been more of a public voice lately as well. He started the public campaign for Bam. UD will likely be offerred Zo position. Zo been teaching UD for a while. I think Spo is gonna remain coach for a while. He will get a salary raise and more of a voice. Wade seems like he gonna freelance until he is ready.

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[Wiltside]

I don’t think Kelly is going to opt out. No guarantee he gets a long term deal in the current cap environment, and he’s got a guaranteed $12m on the table there next year.

[RonaldSeikaly]

I don’t think Kelly is going to opt out. No guarantee he gets a long term deal in the current cap environment, and he’s got a guaranteed $12m on the table there next year.

Yeah i don’t think so. Doesn’t look like anybody wants to spend much this year.

Not really upset. Not sure i want to go into next year with Silva and Alexander as Bam’s primary backups.


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[DayofMourning]

Watching some JJ Redick YouTube and he's had a couple guys (Lillard, Durant) really talking up Jrue Holiday. Like he's the best guard defender in the league. He's the one.

I don't think there's a way to trade for him as his value is too high and we can't afford to offer a quality package.

2021 backup plan at the least.

[Heat_Fan_87]

Really need to see how/if the cap is affected net season

[DayofMourning]

I don’t think Kelly is going to opt out. No guarantee he gets a long term deal in the current cap environment, and he’s got a guaranteed $12m on the table there next year.

Yeah i don’t think so. Doesn’t look like anybody wants to spend much this year.

Not really upset. Not sure i want to go into next year with Silva and Alexander as Bam’s primary backups.


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2021 off-season going to be something. All those free agents and a big time draft. The combination is going to reshape the league.

[Flash4thewin]

I know I'm going to sound dumb by saying this but.... If we go to the Finals(Big IF STILL) and beat LeBron, you have to believe UD & Riley will retire. I would love to win another title but as a HEAT fan who understands how much Riley has meant to this team, I fear the day he leaves. Spo and Co. are ready but the Don brings another level to the leadership team and I'm not ready to see him leave us just yet.

Its very possible, also imagine the opposite if Lebron wipes the floor with us or the Nuggets. UD is getting over 2mil a season with the vet min, he will keep that up for a few more seasons lol. Pat will stay until we get that big fish is my feeling and/or slowly transition to a consultant role.

[BigFaceCoffee]

Given what we have accomplished this year, and what is sure to be a truncated offseason leading into another season of COVID-based uncertainty, I think it makes the most sense for us to "run it back" as much as possible next year. Give Dragic as big of a 1-year deal as possible if that's what it takes, but just 1 year.

[RexBoyWonder]

While we're having a great year, I do think we somewhat overachieved considering our talent level.

We'll see how things end up this year, we'll be smarter once the season is over. but one can argue this team earned the right to have another go at it, and in the same time you can argue we need to add talent and not fall in love with a surprising dark horse type team.

We'll see....some hard decisions.

[dshearn]

in the same time you can argue we need to add talent and not fall in love with a surprising dark horse type team.

We'll see....some hard decisions.

That always been my problem.... I would suck as a GM.


If we cant get GA, I hope we end up Holiday and Ibaka and keep crowder and Dragic.