2020 free agent targets and draft picks

[Jamal23]

Inserting Ariza as the primary salary anchor would force the Blazers to probe four-for-one scenarios. Dangling him, Hood, Zach Collins and Anfernee Simons allows them to take back a little over $33 million.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

In terms of last first/early second round picks, Xavier Tillman kind of reminds me of Draymond Green, high IQ guy with a big body and great anticipation but some athletic questions. Even a poor man's version could make an interesting backup PF/C for us.

If we can pick up 30 in a TPE move for Kanter (TPE+46 for Kanter+30), than Tillman would be my target. I dont think he is as talented or nimble as Green, but he has solid-role-player written all over him. I think he is likely to be closer to Kyle O'Quinn than Draymond, but good chance he lands in the middle which is great value at 30. (FWIW, O'Quinn has averaged 1.7apg in 12mpg the past 3 years which is just nuts for a center)

I will say he wouldn't necessarily be my #1 target at 30. I think my dream would be Tyler Bey who is just such an instant plug and play 3&D player, but I'm expecting him to go early in the 20's. I also think a guy like Grant Riller would be better value at #30 as he can give you sparkplug scoring off the bench, I think he will stick in the league for a long time. Daniel Oturu is another big I see being a very safe pick, I can see him having a Dieng type career. I can also see a good argument for Paul Reed being a poor mans Jerami Grant which is the exact type of defender that is our biggest need. So definitely some options in play at #30.

Back to Tillman, yeah you are right in terms of overall impact, "solid role player" is exactly how I would predict him as well, a high-floor/low-ceiling type pick. What gave me vibes toward Dray (from a stylistic perspective) is his passing is really good for a big, much better than O'Quinn and I'm a plain sucker for a big who can pass. He's kind of a risky pick so I'm sure there are a ton of other better examples of players who fell out of the league, Dray is just a very successful well known example but I generally bet on players who seem to have a good BBIQ sticking in the league somehow, even if they have other limitations, and Tillman seems to read the game very well.

But yeah, Draymond looked a little more athletic, and maybe more importantly Green was a much better 3 point shooter and perimeter defender, although Tillman looks to be better at finishing inside and defending the rim, thus Green can actually be a starting PF and Tillman is mostly a small-ball center. I am kind of talking myself out of him right now haha. I don't see him ever really being a starting caliber big, but I think he has a high enough floor as the sort of modern versatile PF/C that can look good in a small ball scenario and as a bit older he can hopefully contribute sooner. Maybe #30 is too high, but it might be pretty cheap to move up from #46 to around #38 and secure him.

[Goldbum]

With next year starting late maybe Hood comes back ready to contribute and Ariza stays... That changes our biggest need to starting caliber PF or at least someone who can flex out Collins so he plays half his minutes at backup 5 and half at PF. The guys I like for that are:

1. Precious
2. Jalen Smith
3. Zeke Nnanji
4. Jaden McDaniels

The top 3 guys could likely start and contribute or at least be a 3rd big.
Websites are starting to drop Riller again back into our projected second round range again.
So my ideal draft as it stands today (without trades or free agents signings ect) would be Precious at 16 and Riller at 46.
My other option would be that PG in round 1 and 3rd big in round 2 so something like Cole Anthony or Kira Lewis at 16 and either Paul Reed/ Reggie Perry/ T.Bey/ or Isiah Stewart in round 2.
I prefer Anthony and Lewis as 1st round picks but Achiuwa or Jalen would likely contribute a ton more next season and Riller could surprise as well. Our biggest hurdle is that second units and starting PF either scenario above makes for a nice talent grab at positions of need. BPA at 16 will probably be a PG or combo guard.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Maybe the Blazers do nothing this summer other than bring back the same team from last year...

Guarantee Ariza's $12.8M contract
Resign Melo to $3.8M BAE contract (2 years with team option for the 2nd year)
Resign Gabriel to minimum contract (2 years with team option for the 2nd year)
Resign Whiteside to to $7.5M contract (2 years with team option for the 2nd year)
Draft whoever at #16
Hood opts in $6M contract
Hezonja opts in $1.8M contract

Every one of those players would be available after 90 days and prior to the trade deadline. Those players right there account for roughly $35M and you still have Collins $5M, Simons $2M, and Little's $2M contracts to play with, as well. That could provide options for multiple trades at the trade deadline.

PG Lillard / Simons / Hezonja
SG McCollum / Trent Jr
SF Hood / Ariza
PF Collins / Melo / Gabriel
_C Nurkic / Whiteside
#16 pick

It's not a bad roster overall and perhaps Whiteside and Ariza plus change can return a decent player or two. It's not sexy and not really the way I'd like to see things go, but it is an option. A lot hinges on how Hood does upon his return, as well. Frankly, I'm not expecting much.

[BlazersBroncos]

Maybe the Blazers do nothing this summer other than bring back the same team from last year...

Guarantee Ariza's $12.8M contract
Resign Melo to $3.8M BAE contract (2 years with team option for the 2nd year)
Resign Gabriel to minimum contract (2 years with team option for the 2nd year)
Resign Whiteside to to $7.5M contract (2 years with team option for the 2nd year)
Draft whoever at #16
Hood opts in $6M contract
Hezonja opts in $1.8M contract

Every one of those players would be available after 90 days and prior to the trade deadline. Those players right there account for roughly $35M and you still have Collins $5M, Simons $2M, and Little's $2M contracts to play with, as well. That could provide options for multiple trades at the trade deadline.

PG Lillard / Simons / Hezonja
SG McCollum / Trent Jr
SF Hood / Ariza
PF Collins / Melo / Gabriel
_C Nurkic / Whiteside
#16 pick

It's not a bad roster overall and perhaps Whiteside and Ariza plus change can return a decent player or two. It's not sexy and not really the way I'd like to see things go, but it is an option. A lot hinges on how Hood does upon his return, as well. Frankly, I'm not expecting much.

I sadly think this is pretty likely. I dont think the above roster keeps up with the talent development in the West and that we likely are not a HCA team assuming the above. I would bet against that squad making the 2nd round.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Maybe the Blazers do nothing this summer other than bring back the same team from last year...

Guarantee Ariza's $12.8M contract
Resign Melo to $3.8M BAE contract (2 years with team option for the 2nd year)
Resign Gabriel to minimum contract (2 years with team option for the 2nd year)
Resign Whiteside to to $7.5M contract (2 years with team option for the 2nd year)
Draft whoever at #16
Hood opts in $6M contract
Hezonja opts in $1.8M contract

Every one of those players would be available after 90 days and prior to the trade deadline. Those players right there account for roughly $35M and you still have Collins $5M, Simons $2M, and Little's $2M contracts to play with, as well. That could provide options for multiple trades at the trade deadline.

PG Lillard / Simons / Hezonja
SG McCollum / Trent Jr
SF Hood / Ariza
PF Collins / Melo / Gabriel
_C Nurkic / Whiteside
#16 pick

It's not a bad roster overall and perhaps Whiteside and Ariza plus change can return a decent player or two. It's not sexy and not really the way I'd like to see things go, but it is an option. A lot hinges on how Hood does upon his return, as well. Frankly, I'm not expecting much.

I sadly think this is pretty likely. I dont think the above roster keeps up with the talent development in the West and that we likely are not a HCA team assuming the above. I would bet against that squad making the 2nd round.

Unfortunately, I agree. Now the Blazers do have the MLE available to them so they could add one more player to the mix... either a starting caliber or really good backup SF or PF. I'd still like to see them go after Jae Crowder. I would imagine a number of other teams would go after him, as well (including the Heat).

[BlazersBroncos]

Unfortunately, I agree. Now the Blazers do have the MLE available to them so they could add one more player to the mix... either a starting caliber or really good backup SF or PF. I'd still like to see them go after Jae Crowder. I would imagine a number of other teams would go after him, as well (including the Heat).

Crowder is going to get MLE offers from just about every quality team in the league, and there is a good chance Miami gives him a 1-year overpay with a handshake that he resigns in 2021 after they get a big fish. I dont see any reason for Crowder to pass up chances to play for true contenders and come here, especially considering the money will be the same (Or less in the example or resigning with Miami). He is going to be a very hot commodity this offseason.

[d-train]

Unfortunately, I agree. Now the Blazers do have the MLE available to them so they could add one more player to the mix... either a starting caliber or really good backup SF or PF. I'd still like to see them go after Jae Crowder. I would imagine a number of other teams would go after him, as well (including the Heat).

Crowder is going to get MLE offers from just about every quality team in the league, and there is a good chance Miami gives him a 1-year overpay with a handshake that he resigns in 2021 after they get a big fish. I dont see any reason for Crowder to pass up chances to play for true contenders and come here, especially considering the money will be the same (Or less in the example or resigning with Miami). He is going to be a very hot commodity this offseason.

Crowder isn't going to get a lot of offers. Every team has either a full or smaller taxpayer MLE, but many teams are already committed to salary in excess of $120M, which means any new contracts will require luxury tax penalties. Many teams are well over 120M without signing any players.

I do agree the Heat might offer a 1 year overpay. Not because Crowder would settle for an unwritten promise or that the Heat would be dumb enough to offer one, but because Crowder might not get a good longer-term offer.

[BlazersBroncos]

Crowder isn't going to get a lot of offers. Every team has either a full or smaller taxpayer MLE, but many teams are already committed to salary in excess of $120M, which means any new contracts will require luxury tax penalties. Many teams are well over 120M without signing any players.

I do agree the Heat might offer a 1 year overpay. Not because Crowder would settle for an unwritten promise or that the Heat would be dumb enough to offer one, but because Crowder might not get a good longer-term offer.

Crowder is the exact type of role player contending teams target. He also is a swing forward 3/D who can guard both SF and PF, in a league that has scarcity of such players, and looking at the FA pool for such players this offseason shows an even greater scarcity of players that are UFA and fit the above billing. Not to mention this is a 'what have you done for me lately' league and he is having a tremendous run in the playoffs.

Crowder would would be the 4th best player on this team if we had him, which may say more about our talent level than his, but he is going to have teams swarming over him. Wait and see.

[Village Idiot]

With next year starting late maybe Hood comes back ready to contribute and Ariza stays... That changes our biggest need to starting caliber PF or at least someone who can flex out Collins so he plays half his minutes at backup 5 and half at PF. The guys I like for that are:

1. Precious
2. Jalen Smith
3. Zeke Nnanji
4. Jaden McDaniels

The top 3 guys could likely start and contribute or at least be a 3rd big.
Websites are starting to drop Riller again back into our projected second round range again.
So my ideal draft as it stands today (without trades or free agents signings ect) would be Precious at 16 and Riller at 46.
My other option would be that PG in round 1 and 3rd big in round 2 so something like Cole Anthony or Kira Lewis at 16 and either Paul Reed/ Reggie Perry/ T.Bey/ or Isiah Stewart in round 2.
I prefer Anthony and Lewis as 1st round picks but Achiuwa or Jalen would likely contribute a ton more next season and Riller could surprise as well. Our biggest hurdle is that second units and starting PF either scenario above makes for a nice talent grab at positions of need. BPA at 16 will probably be a PG or combo guard.

To be honest I think all those guys have a lot of warts.

Precious is a low skill, high athleticism guy with decent measurables but a bad feel for the game. I can see him being a Hakim Warrick type.

Smith is skilled but not very athletic and can't defend in space which need to be a prime consideration in the modern NBA

Zeke is really blah. I can't see him as being an NBA rotation player

McDaniels is a SF only. He's never going to have the bulk to play SF. He has some nice tools but is a long way from being an NBA rotation player. I hear he has some red flags as well

for me this is a one player draft. My tier 1 is Okongwu. Fantastic athlete and defender. I can see him as an Adebayo type defensively who can defend the 1-5. He is constantly making small positioning adjustments which is something I always look for in a player. Offensively he is pretty basic but is already a lob threat and has a nice jump hook. His shooting form looks promising too.

I would strongly advocate trading our pick and either next years 1st (top 3 protected) or Simons to get him

[BlazersBroncos]

for me this is a one player draft. My tier 1 is Okongwu. Fantastic athlete and defender. I can see him as an Adebayo type defensively who can defend the 1-5. He is constantly making small positioning adjustments which is something I always look for in a player. Offensively he is pretty basic but is already a lob threat and has a nice jump hook. His shooting form looks promising too.

I would strongly advocate trading our pick and either next years 1st (top 3 protected) or Simons to get him

I dont think that package gets you close to OO, unfortunatley. I actually have him as my #1 prospect, but even using the concensus he is around 6-8.

#16 + a Future 1st doesnt get you close to 6-8, using Simons rather than said future 1st might not get you to #14. I dont even think #16 + Collins + Simons gets you that close honestly. OO just isnt an option.

Smith is skilled but not very athletic and can't defend in space which need to be a prime consideration in the modern NBA

I am not sure where you get the not very athletic from. He managed 2.4 BPG last season and regularly was finishing above the rim. He may not be able to defend in space that well, but thats a very rare trait for a big man especially one who isnt a blue-chip. I think he is a great 3rd big prospect with an outside chance to develop into a starter at either PF or C.

To me my biggest worry is his really skinny lower half, but I get feels of a sort of PJ Brown / Serge Ibaka lovechild as a comparison. Really like him at 16. I have him a full tier above Previous and multiple tiers above Zeke and McDaniels.

Precious has similar athleticism to Jalen but absolutley no offensive polish or skill, he is a pure hustle / garbage guy. He and Jalen are the same age as well, despite Jalen being a SOPH. And Jalen blows him out of the water across the board in terms of advanced stats.

Zeke looks like Channing Frye without a 3PT shot and McDaniels is just a ball of clay with a ridiculously inefficient game.

[Goldbum]

I agree that all those guys have warts... It's that type of draft. Physically Precious and OO are a wash to me problem being he was developed as a big wing and not an uber athletic big. Put him at PF with his defense, rebounding and motor and allow him focus on his actual strengths and i thi k he greatly exceeds his draft position.

[Goldbum]

Also I do Kanter and #30 for #46 in a heartbeat.

[BlazersBroncos]

I agree that all those guys have warts... It's that type of draft. Physically Precious and OO are a wash to me problem being he was developed as a big wing and not an uber athletic big. Put him at PF with his defense, rebounding and motor and allow him focus on his actual strengths and i thi k he greatly exceeds his draft position.

I really think that OO is on another level athletically than Precious. OO finished above the rim much more often from what I have seen, and has a ton more functional strength, hell he is 20lbs heavier. Not only that, but he has a much better shot. I think OO is going to be something of a Capella / Bam hybrid, but never coming close to the passer Bam is. Precious looks like Jerami Grant but has no offensive skill and isnt as nimble.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

for me this is a one player draft. My tier 1 is Okongwu. Fantastic athlete and defender. I can see him as an Adebayo type defensively who can defend the 1-5. He is constantly making small positioning adjustments which is something I always look for in a player. Offensively he is pretty basic but is already a lob threat and has a nice jump hook. His shooting form looks promising too.

I would strongly advocate trading our pick and either next years 1st (top 3 protected) or Simons to get him

I dont think that package gets you close to OO, unfortunatley. I actually have him as my #1 prospect, but even using the concensus he is around 6-8.

Yeah, I really like Okongwu's fit for our team. He wont ever be a star, more of a high level role player, but I think he will be the type of role player that everyone wants on their team. He's the type of defender you can put on a star forward, as long as you have decent spacing around him. I think he would be good for us at PF so I would definitely look at trading Collins and/or a future pick to move up for him.

Avdija, Okoro, Haliburton and Vassell are some other guys I think are safe to become high level role players. I would probably trade next years pick to move up for them.

Williams and Nesmith are two guys I like as well that will probably go a few picks ahead of us, not sure if I would trade next years pick to ensure we get them however, as that is supposed to be a deep draft.

[BlazersBroncos]

Yeah, I really like Okongwu's fit for our team. He wont ever be a star, more of a high level role player, but I think he will be the type of role player that everyone wants on their team. He's the type of defender you can put on a star forward, as long as you have decent spacing around him. I think he would be good for us at PF so I would definitely look at trading Collins and/or a future pick to move up for him.

I would move 16, Collin, Little, Simons and probably a lotto protected FRP for OO. I think he is going to be Bam without the passing.

Give me one really good prospect over a gaggle of meh guys all day, I dont care if its basically 5 1st rounders for one guy. You can only play 5 dudes at a time, and in the playoffs you only generally give 8 guys minutes.

OO posted a 122.8 ORTG / 88.5 DRTG. That is absolutely, positively filthy. Not to mention a 6.7 OBPM / 4.9 DBPM. Again, filthy. Finally, .149 OWS / .098 DWS. Again again, filthy.

For comparison Precious was 101.3 ORTG / 82.5 DRTG w/ 2.5 OBMP / 3.4 DBPM + .064 OWS / .123 DWS.

OO is always above and around the rim. His skillset is immediatley translatable, he hustles, is elite at catching lobs, rolls very well, can switch on defense and has an NBA ready body at 6'9 245lbs (7'4 wingspan). The kid is made to be a super high end role player who makes the whole team better IMO. But alas, we cant really put a package together to snag him.

[Village Idiot]

Smith is skilled but not very athletic and can't defend in space which need to be a prime consideration in the modern NBA

I am not sure where you get the not very athletic from. He managed 2.4 BPG last season and regularly was finishing above the rim. He may not be able to defend in space that well, but thats a very rare trait for a big man especially one who isnt a blue-chip. I think he is a great 3rd big prospect with an outside chance to develop into a starter at either PF or C.

To me my biggest worry is his really skinny lower half, but I get feels of a sort of PJ Brown / Serge Ibaka lovechild as a comparison. Really like him at 16. I have him a full tier above Previous and multiple tiers above Zeke and McDaniels.

It is the lateral quickness and ability to defend in space which I was referring to. I think Smith has the potential to be a Myles Turner type of big which is huge value at 16. It's not that I don't like him but compared to OO is an inferior player.

[BlazersBroncos]

It is the lateral quickness and ability to defend in space which I was referring to. I think Smith has the potential to be a Myles Turner type of big which is huge value at 16. It's not that I don't like him but compared to OO is an inferior player.

O, I am right there with you then. I think when all is said and done they are both out of our range. Jalen Smith seems like a great fit for Boston at 14 honestly. They want rim protection and a big that can space the floor, he is just that. I dont think it would be crazy for PHX to take him as high as 10 honestly, he would be a nice fit next to Ayton due to his 3PT spacing. Thats his ceiling IMO. I find it nuts that in such a weak draft he is projected around 20.

OO, Jalen Smith and Poku are my top targets. The latter just based on potential. We need to luck out in the draft and aim high to stay with the other Western teams. Poku has the chance to be a pure PF version of some type of Keith Van Horn / Toni Kukoc hybrid. A player like that at PF would transform this squad.

[GEE]

Seems like a pretty solid consensus among the last several posts, and I like the realistic thinking behind it. I see things a tiny-bit different though (at least for game 1):

Dame / Simons / (SRP) Pritchard
CJ / GTJ / Mario
Gabriel / Hood / Little
Melo / Collins / ???
Nurkic / Whiteside / (FRP) Jalen

Melo is currently just better than Collins right now, Hood likely won't be ready to start, and I love the chemistry of Melo/Gabriel together on the floor. IMHO, I think the talent there. If healthy and given a fair chance by the refs, is every bit as good as a Denver, and gives us our best chance.

Also, this is 14 players and I anticipate a decent wing addition as well. If Melo would take BAE, we could get a pretty solid guy with a full MLE. Not sure Crowder is the guy, but BPA in that sort of mold could be huge.

But honestly... without a change in the coaching staff, it won't matter much anyway.

[Tim Lehrbach]

I've been busy at the Trades & Transactions Board posting some silly offseason plans to test out different ideas, learn about relative valuations, and play a lot with draft fits. In case anybody interested hasn't already read them:
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1994877
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1995459
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1996521
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1999416
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2001354

Warning: in the fourth one I trade Lillard just for funsies. But otherwise the general theme is that this team needs better defense and athletes on the wings. Also, I am much higher on this draft class than most. Some good discussion by y'all in this thread on some of the prospects the Blazers might target.