2020 free agent targets and draft picks

[Norm2953]

I strongly suspect the MLE is going to be a decent contract in a league in which every team lost 40%
of their team revenue in 2020 with a real chance at more losses in 2021.

[bmc11]

What do you think of this off season:

Trade 1:

POR OUT: S&T Hassan Whiteside (20 million 1 year)
POR IN: H. Barnes

SAC OUT: H. Barnes
POR IN: Hassan Whiteside

Why for POR: We don´t have a lot of options of improving the forwards position, we go all in to take advantage of Dame´s prime and get a good but overpay SF/PF for a player we would not resign back.

Why for SAC: They get rid of Barnes Contract

Why for Hassan: He would get the double of the contract he would get on the open market

Trade 2:

POR OUT: Top 50 Protected 2d round pick (Using Bazemore TPE)
POR IN: Kanter and 30th pick

BOS OUT: Kanter and 30th pick
BOS In: Capspace Top 50 Protected 2d round pick

Why for POR: We get a center that know the system and a good backup center and another draft pick for the trouble

Why for BOS: They get capscapce for a center that could not be used in the playoffs (except in a blazer uniform)

Draft:
16th: The forward that slips (Okoro, Vassel, Saddiq, Nesmith, Patrick Williams)
30th: Paul Reed, Tyler Bey, Killian Tillie
46th: A back up pg (Pritchard, Merril, Dotson, Tre Jones)

Sign: JaMychal Green for the MLE

PG: Lillard, Simons, 46th pick (Pritchard)
SG: McCollum, Trent jr
SF: Barnes, Ariza, Hood, Little, 16th pick (Patrick Williams)
PF: Collins, Green, 30th pick (Paul Reed)
C: Nurkic, Kanter

[JasonStern]

What do you think of this off season

Why do the Kings want Whiteside, especially at an above market price?

What happens when Nurkić is due for an extension and the Blazers are paying ~85% of their luxury tax threshold to Lillard, McCollum, and Barnes?

Kanter has a player option and might not opt in. Even if he does, why would Boston give up a 1st to dump him? He's only owed $5M. Are you sure no other team would offer cap relief?

[Dame Lizard]

I'm unsure whether I want Portland to use their Draft pick or trade it.

I'm leaning towards using it. For the right player, I'd be open to trading it, but they better be a good player (i.e. better than Afflalo was) and not expiring.

[Epicurus]

I'm unsure whether I want Portland to use their Draft pick or trade it.

I'm leaning towards using it. For the right player, I'd be open to trading it, but they better be a good player (i.e. better than Afflalo was) and not expiring.

Actually the Blazers were 5-1 with AA playing the role he was brought into to do. I think 18-21 when he had to move into a starting role due to Matthews' injury. He might have been the "right player" had not Wesley got injured.

[Dame Lizard]

I'm unsure whether I want Portland to use their Draft pick or trade it.

I'm leaning towards using it. For the right player, I'd be open to trading it, but they better be a good player (i.e. better than Afflalo was) and not expiring.

Actually the Blazers were 5-1 with AA playing the role he was brought into to do. I think 18-21 when he had to move into a starting role due to Matthews' injury. He might have been the "right player" had not Wesley got injured.

That's a fair call.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

The draft is such an important pipeline of talent I think you always want to come away with at least one player. Now, if someone gives you great value on a mid-first I mean you take a look at that for sure (maybe trade down), but absent a good trade I think you do your homework and go get the guy you want.

[JasonStern]

The draft is such an important pipeline of talent I think you always want to come away with at least one player. Now, if someone gives you great value on a mid-first I mean you take a look at that for sure (maybe trade down), but absent a good trade I think you do your homework and go get the guy you want.

The Blazers have:

Little (20)
Simons (21)
Trent (21)
Collins (22)
Gabriel (23)

Are we sure that planning to make a run in 2028 is a better approach than surrounding Dame with talent now?

[DeBlazerRiddem]

The draft is such an important pipeline of talent I think you always want to come away with at least one player. Now, if someone gives you great value on a mid-first I mean you take a look at that for sure (maybe trade down), but absent a good trade I think you do your homework and go get the guy you want.

The Blazers have:

Little (20)
Simons (21)
Trent (21)
Collins (22)
Gabriel (23)

Are we sure that planning to make a run in 2028 is a better approach than surrounding Dame with talent now?

Sure are taking a good swing at that straw man you made in my likeness... Beat up that straw man, go on really give it to him, Wizard of Oz taught us he has no heart anyways.

[BlazersBroncos]

Sure are taking a good swing at that straw man you made in my likeness... Beat up that straw man, go on really give it to him, Wizard of Oz taught us he has no heart anyways.

I mean, he does sorta have a point. This team has a bunch of middling former 1st round talents. Pick #16 is likely to get you another middling 1st round talent. We have an elite player in his prime surrounded by two NBA caliber starters, one who is grossly overpaid, a few middling bench level vets and a ton of unproven young middle tier talent.

If we want to keep up with the West, running it back and adding another meh guy at #16 just isnt going to cut it. By the looks of it, we are clearly behind LAL, LAC and DEN. The young internal talent development of DAL and UTA means they are certain to jump a tier above us next season, and likely never look back (Until Mitchell and Luka retire lol). After that you have NO who is likely to take a step forward with the generational talent of Zion and the improvement of Ingram. You have PHX with some cap space and a young. improving squad (I wouldnt put any of our young talent near the same tier as even Mikal Bridges honestly). Finally, there is MEM also with a superstar in the making in Ja and a bunch of young talent that is a tier above ours.

We are potentially behind LAL, LAC, DEN, DAL, UTA, NO, PHX and MEM next season. And I dont think I am being pessimistic in any way. Just looking objectively. We are simply not in a good spot.

[HoopsFanAZ]

http://82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

We can argue on what constitutes the terms "Star, Solid, Role Player, Deep Bench, Bust, DNP" and criteria of such and ... but if we just roll with it (for the sake of argument), Roland Beech's article is a reasonable source. I'd average picks 15-17 for the percentages to offset the chance that occurs over years at a single number.

So let's say, there's a 12% chance of getting a star at 16. 18% a Solid Player, 27% a Role Player, 30% a Deep Bench guy, and 12% Bust. Any player who could be signed for that salary is a known quantity for another team and projectable on the Blazers; it's not the same going from team to team, but it's more of a known quantity than a college draftee. Those, generally speaking, are reclamation projects.

When it comes to those odds, I'll roll the dice every time.

Former 1st rounders come and go. Reclamation projects from the lottery. And I'm not even getting into 2nd rounders (especially outside the first handful). I'd be happier with multiple picks in the first round (the KP Maneuver) ... especially a draft that doesn't have top end talent. Unless a trade brings in a dude who fits, don't trade 1st rounders. And don't trade multiple picks to move up unless you can get that ONE guy -- Zach Collins. A pick I still like. And never trade down out of the Top few picks. Never.

Don't trade 1st rounders. Not in small markets. Not given the team salary structure. If anything, trade young players who replicate talent especially if their work ethic isn't maniacal.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Sure are taking a good swing at that straw man you made in my likeness... Beat up that straw man, go on really give it to him, Wizard of Oz taught us he has no heart anyways.

I mean, he does sorta have a point. This team has a bunch of middling former 1st round talents. Pick #16 is likely to get you another middling 1st round talent. We have an elite player in his prime surrounded by two NBA caliber starters, one who is grossly overpaid, a few middling bench level vets and a ton of unproven young middle tier talent.

If we want to keep up with the West, running it back and adding another meh guy at #16 just isnt going to cut it. By the looks of it, we are clearly behind LAL, LAC and DEN. The young internal talent development of DAL and UTA means they are certain to jump a tier above us next season, and likely never look back (Until Mitchell and Luka retire lol). After that you have NO who is likely to take a step forward with the generational talent of Zion and the improvement of Ingram. You have PHX with some cap space and a young. improving squad (I wouldnt put any of our young talent near the same tier as even Mikal Bridges honestly). Finally, there is MEM also with a superstar in the making in Ja and a bunch of young talent that is a tier above ours.

We are potentially behind LAL, LAC, DEN, DAL, UTA, NO, PHX and MEM next season. And I dont think I am being pessimistic in any way. Just looking objectively. We are simply not in a good spot.

OK, if you both are going to misunderstand me then I'll clarify. Note how I said if someone offers you a good price for the pick then take a look at that, just don't entirely discount the draft before you even look at it or because you have X number of young players. Heck no reason to be too attached to those young players either, especially if it limits your draft decisions.

The draft is basically the cheapest way to acquire long-term talent so you should always do your homework rather than shopping the pick outright. Even if someone gives you good value for your pick (which probably means there is good talent at your pick and you should think about keeping it for yourself) it is still a good idea to bring in a second rounder, especially older players that might not be as high ceiling but who can play a role for cheap. Look at 2015 where Olshey traded RHJ but still brought in Layman, that was a good use of resources.

You all seem to be thinking I am saying "never trade draft picks" and that is the straw man. I am saying don't count on a good trade being out there (there isn't always one) and plan on using the tools you do know you have in front of you to improve your team. At least, that would be my philosophy.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Well explained. Agreed on everything important.

[Wizenheimer]

OK, if you both are going to misunderstand me then I'll clarify. Note how I said if someone offers you a good price for the pick then take a look at that, just don't entirely discount the draft before you even look at it or because you have X number of young players. Heck no reason to be too attached to those young players either, especially if it limits your draft decisions.

The draft is basically the cheapest way to acquire long-term talent so you should always do your homework rather than shopping the pick outright. Even if someone gives you good value for your pick (which probably means there is good talent at your pick and you should think about keeping it for yourself) it is still a good idea to bring in a second rounder, especially older players that might not be as high ceiling but who can play a role for cheap. Look at 2015 where Olshey traded RHJ but still brought in Layman, that was a good use of resources.

You all seem to be thinking I am saying "never trade draft picks" and that is the straw man. I am saying don't count on a good trade being out there (there isn't always one) and plan on using the tools you do know you have in front of you to improve your team. At least, that would be my philosophy.

that's all true, but it's all true on a generic level. Each team will have different dynamics informing the value they place on a draft pick, especially a non-lottery pick...or at least they should

in Portland's case, the most important dynamic is Dame and the shelf life on his prime

by that I mean look at Portland's last 3 first round picks: Zach, Simons, and Little. Then ask yourself how much those 3 players, 20% of the roster, helped Dame in his quest to win a championship this year. The answer is obvious: almost no help at all. The three of them combined for 1.1 winshare in 130 combined games. Ariza had 1.4 in 21 games. Skal had 1.4 in 33 games. Those are two veterans similar to what you'd expect to be available for a 16th pick, and maybe a better player would be available as well

now here of course is where people trot out the excuse that Zach was injured most of the year. He had 2.9 winshares the previous year. But out of 3 typical players, you can generally expect to see missed games due to injury

none of that directly refutes your assessment of draft pick value on that generic level. But it does point out that adding another rookie to the mix next season will be very unlikely to help Dame reach the promised land. Just how many projects do the Blazers need? Zach is still definitely in the project phase, will be 23 years old in a month, and will also be in the last year of his rookie deal, due his extension. And we really don't know any more how much realistic upside Zach has ahead of him. Simons? Little? 2020 pick?

I don't see any heavy waiting talent in any of those three players, although we saw very little of Little (sorry). Of course, going into this season I was inclined to think Trent was a bust, even for a 2nd round pick, and he's become a decent role player with two-way abilities.

teams need to keep bringing young talent in the pipeline, and as you noted, rookie scale contracts have become bargains, generally (although well spent vet minimums are much bigger bargains). But normal patience with young project players that don't pan out in 2 or 3 years needs to be abbreviated when a team is in a win-now phase because of having an elite franchise talent who is burning thru his prime

Olshey needs to be shopping that pick hard right now. He also needs to be re-thinking his evaluation of Simons and end of bench young players. And he needs to be looking at the impact of CJ's contract on Portland's flexibility. I doubt he's doing any of those things. What I hope he isn't doing is eagerly awaiting the opportunity to pull another Meyers and give his boy Zach a big extension this off-season

but back to that pick, I'd be a lot more excited if it was part of a trade for a good veteran player than simply adding another player like Luke Babbitt or Caleb Swanigan

[Roddy B for 3]

Portland is on the clock for48 hours in the NBA draft subforum mock draft. We'd like to have Trailblazers fans opinion.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Portland is on the clock for48 hours in the NBA draft subforum mock draft. We'd like to have Trailblazers fans opinion.

If the real draft plays out like this mock then I'll agree the Blazers are much better served trading the pick. Maybe some team will trade up looking for a player like Hampton, Anthony, Poku or Maxey but none of them give me much confidence. I would rather trade down in late 1st/early second on someone with lower expectations like Tyler Bey, Paul Reed, Grant Riller, Daniel Oturu or Xavier Tillman.

teams need to keep bringing young talent in the pipeline, and as you noted, rookie scale contracts have become bargains, generally (although well spent vet minimums are much bigger bargains). But normal patience with young project players that don't pan out in 2 or 3 years needs to be abbreviated when a team is in a win-now phase because of having an elite franchise talent who is burning thru his prime

Absolutely. I suppose if my internal calculus said "trading this pick will get us closer to the promised land" I would be more willing, but probably the best player available for that pick is Oubre and man he has some terrible impact stats, prototypical get stats on a bad team guy. I think he could fit a role here but honestly Ariza for one more year is probably just about as good as Oubre would be in a more limited role, and then Oubre is up for a big contract and that just devalues him further, so keeping the pick looks better in that view of our options.

I know prospects take a few years but a big part of keeping that pipeline full is so that you have assets in 2-3 years to capitalize if/when the right player becomes available. Trent Jr is a good example, right now his stock is high and he might be a valuable addition to a trade. Collins and Simons at the trade deadline will hopefully have raised their stock a little bit, if not then its time to move on, but I wouldn't let their ticking clock prevent me from adding a prospect this summer. If you let that pipeline dry up or trade it all for someone that doesn't get us over the hump then you aren't in as good a situation when opportunity comes knocking. And in the best case scenario, a big hit on our pick will help extend Lillard's window, although I am not expecting that from this draft class. Still, generally those are the reasons to keep the pipeline full of developing young talent rather than trading them for 1 year "win-now" additions like Afflalo or Oubre.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Portland is on the clock for48 hours in the NBA draft subforum mock draft. We'd like to have Trailblazers fans opinion.

Looks like we ended up with Achiuwa. I'm pretty skeptical of him but I mean it's not terrible, he should translate physically to the NBA and has a decent floor because the NBA can always use big athletic guys like him even if they don't develop their skillset and mental game much. He seemed to have a pretty good defensive impact in college, #2 in defensive rating and win shares, and can plug a pretty big hole at our backup forward spots. I'm generally a skeptic of guys with low assist rates because they end up the type of player that doesn't "think" about the game and generally have succeeded at lower levels due to their natural gifts. At the next level it ends up that a coach cannot trust them to be decision makers and are thus relegating to minor roles, but that's not a hard rule I suppose and if he can improve his shot then he can still be a valuable role player, but the risk is a Thomas Robinson type player.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Portland Offseason...

Portland trades Trevor Ariza, Bazemore TPE, #46 pick, 2021 1st Rd Pick (lotto protected)
Portland receives: Will Barton, Enes Kanter, #30 pick
Why: Portland brings Barton home as the starting SF, someone who can handle/distribute the ball a la Batum and can hit the 3 point shot at a decent clip and create for himself and others. Honestly, Portland probably needs to include Simons or Little to Denver and does that even get it done?

Denver trades: Will Barton
Denver receives: Trevor Ariza, 2021 1st Rd Pick (lotto protected)
Why: Denver needs to make room for Michael Porter Jr and saves roughly $16 million over two years (assuming Barton exercises his option in 2021-22).

Boston trades: Enes Kanter, #30 pick
Boston receives: Bazemore TPE, #46 pick
Why: Kanter fell out of the rotation and needs financial help. Both Theis and Kanter make $5 million so it's time to choose. Ainge likes to load up on assets and a $5 million TPE isn't bad.

Portland signs Paul Milsap to a 2 year contract with a 3rd year team option for the MLE.
- - - I get he's 35 years old, but he's still producing with good efficiency and can hit a 3 point shoot very well.

Portland signs Shabazz Napier to a 2 year veterans minimum contract with a 3rd year team option.
- - - Portland brings Napier back, who is a good backup guard, capable of putting points on the board.

Portland signs Skal Labisserie to a 2 year veterans minimum contract with a 3rd year team option.
- - - Portland brings Labisserie back, who played well for Portland last season and is a decent 2-way player.

Portland drafts Saddiq Bey with the #16 pick.
- - - Portland drafts a wing player, capable of hitting a 3 point shot.

Portland drafts Theo Maledon with the #30 pick.
- - - Portland drafts a decent combo guard with size.

Portland waives Mario Hezonja.
- - - Laku noc (Goodnight)

Lillard (30) / Napier (29) / Maledon (19)
McCollum (29) / Trent Jr (21) / Simons (21)
Barton (29) / Hood (28) / Bey (21)
Milsap (35) / Labisserie (24) / Little (20)
Nurkic (26) / Collins (23) / Kanter (28)

If Hood is not able to come back to last years form and contribute at a high level for the team, the Blazers have plenty of other options for the backup SF position (Trent Jr, Little, Bey) or they can run with the 3 guard rotation like they did when Napier played for the Blazers a few years ago. This team has a good mix of youth and experience and is 3+ deep at every position.

How high does this team climb in the regular season and far do they go in the playoffs?

[JasonStern]

Draft Cole Anthony at 16 - high usage SG in a PG body
Pass on solid long-term backup point guards in Pritchard and Flynn at 46 to draft the "Uzbekistan Ox" Ömer Yurtseven

Don't pick up Ariza's option for cost savings

Sign Meyers Leonard for a 3 year MLE contract (3rd being a team option as Nurkić will be due for an extension)
Whiteside depressed - he would have signed for half of that! But he also didn't start on a team that made the NBA finals!

Re-sign Carmelo Anthony for the BAE (2 year, player option year 2)

Re-sign Wenyen Gabriel for the minimum

Keep one roster spot open

Give a speech about how well we've been doing despite having one of the youngest rosters in the league - 9 of out 14 players are 26 or younger. Lots of players showing tons of promise in practice - lots of hope we have some breakout seasons. Some great veteran leadership in Carmelo and Dame. Plus we're not trading half the roster this season which is good for chemistry:

Lillard (30)/Anthony (20)
McCollum (29)/Trent (21)/Simons (21)
Anthony (36)/Hezonja (25)/Little (20) /Hood (27) (IR)
Collins (22)/Gabriel (23)
Nurkić (26)/Leonard (28)/Yurtseven (22)

Have a solid summer league performance, making Cole Anthony, Trent, Simons, Little, and Gabriel untouchable in trades in Blazers RealGM minds.

Ox becomes the new Ha. Sure, he might only average 0.8ppg, but that 0.8ppg is worth 1.4ppg in our hearts.

Giannis gets traded for a low offer. Blazers fans are annoyed we didn't try to make a trade, but with Anthony, Trent, Simons, Little, and Gabriel untouchable, plus not willing to trade Dame or CJ for a potential rental...

Get the 8th seed by 1 game thanks to some late season Dame heroics. Lose to either the Lakers or Warriors in the 1st round.

Dame gets All-NBA 3rd team, being snubbed for Curry despite beating Curry in every statistical category except team wins.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Jason, are you trying to win games? Leonard wasn't worth $10 million when the Blazers signed him last time. He's a vet minimum player, nothing more. That second unit is scary and not in a good way.