Free agency prediction | Brandon Ingram

[_s_t_u_r_t_]

1) Ingram will require from NOP the max contract treatment--max money presumably starting at $28.5m and including 8% raises for each of the succeeding four seasons. Do that, and Griffin can draw a line through that top-most off-season priority. Done.

2) But maybe they don't. And if NOP offers something short of that, it makes some sense that he an his agent go to the market looking for the best possible 1-year offer to sign.

3) The smart money is that, facing that prospect, NOP makes the fullest commitment to BI.

4) If they balk, I think the smart money is on NYK getting a 1-year deal done. (Note: No, I'm not a Knicks fan, and so yes, I wish I could say ATL would have the upper hand.)

[Scoot McGroot]

1) Ingram will require from NOP the max contract treatment--max money presumably starting at $28.5m and including 8% raises for each of the succeeding four seasons. Do that, and Griffin can draw a line through that top-most off-season priority. Done.

2) But maybe they don't. And if NOP offers something short of that, it makes some sense that he an his agent go to the market looking for the best possible 1-year offer to sign.

3) The smart money is that, facing that prospect, NOP makes the fullest commitment to BI.

4) If they balk, I think the smart money is on NYK getting a 1-year deal done. (Note: No, I'm not a Knicks fan, and so yes, I wish I could say ATL would have the upper hand.)

Offer sheets to a restricted free agent from the non incumbent team have to be for 3 years, minimum.

[giberish]

Assuming NO extends the QO to Ingram (and they obviously will), then any offer sheet he signs has to be 3 or 4 years.

The only debate with Ingram's next contract with NO will be years. I'd expect NO wants 5 years, while Ingram may push for the 3 + 1 year PO.

[patman66]

Why would Ingram leave NO to go to NY. and od you see him playing the 2 in NY? or do they move Barett? And I certainly don't think a one year offer is the way to go for your first big deal. Put the 100 mill in the bank, before you start taking chances on yourself not getting hurt.

[_s_t_u_r_t_]

1) 3 years then... just saying, he will take the quickest ticket out of NOP he can get.

2) Chris Paul called to say he's not sure why it is so irrational to think that players and their agents conventionally perceive it to be smarter to be a featured player in New York or LA than it is to be one in New Orleans... or, sadly for some of us, Atlanta.

3) Barrett is a 2 who may play some 3 in small ball. Ingram is a 3 who may play some 4 in small ball--and as he puts on some of the girth that tends to naturally evolve as players get older.

[Scoot McGroot]

1) 3 years then... just saying, he will take the quickest ticket out of NOP he can get.

2) Chris Paul called to say he's not sure why it is so irrational to think that players and their agents conventionally perceive it to be smarter to be a featured player in New York or LA than it is to be one in New Orleans... or, sadly for some of us, Atlanta.

3) Barrett is a 2 who may play some 3 in small ball. Ingram is a 3 who may play some 4 in small ball--and as he puts on some of the girth that tends to naturally evolve as players get older.

As for 1, sure. He can do that. He can sign a 3 year offer sheet elsewhere, which also includes the lower 5% raises. But then he’s fully signed for 3 years, and by midseason, NO could shop him fully for the best package they want, not at all what Ingram may want. So, NO could theoretically keep him 3 years for cheaper, or trade him for max value. I don’t see a lose for them here.

[_s_t_u_r_t_]

I'd expect NO wants 5 years, while Ingram may push for the 3 + 1 year PO.

Ingram didn't really do much after the All-Star Game if one bothers to go look at the game logs.

And just prior to the ASG, there remained explicit skepticism among anonymous NBA executives interviewed for an ESPN story whether NOP would make a max offer.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28737693/nine-chaotic-moments-shake-suddenly-stable-nba



Thus... more likely the other way around, imo.

[wolves_89]

If the Pelicans want to keep him (all indications are that they do), there aren't any realistic scenarios where Ingram ends up anywhere but New Orleans.

[drosereturn]

1) 3 years then... just saying, he will take the quickest ticket out of NOP he can get.

2) Chris Paul called to say he's not sure why it is so irrational to think that players and their agents conventionally perceive it to be smarter to be a featured player in New York or LA than it is to be one in New Orleans... or, sadly for some of us, Atlanta.

3) Barrett is a 2 who may play some 3 in small ball. Ingram is a 3 who may play some 4 in small ball--and as he puts on some of the girth that tends to naturally evolve as players get older.

As for 1, sure. He can do that. He can sign a 3 year offer sheet elsewhere, which also includes the lower 5% raises. But then he’s fully signed for 3 years, and by life season, NO could shop him fully for the best package they want, not at all what Ingram may want. So, NO could theoretically keep him 3 years for cheaper, or trade him for max value. I don’t see a lose for them here.

Ingram doesnt care about being in LA tho bc he was kicked out and probably cares abt getting most money like Kawhi because of his personality. Guys who speak a lot like Giannis, Embiid are guys that will 100% bolt because they are bigger than the franchise itself.

[Scoot McGroot]

1) 3 years then... just saying, he will take the quickest ticket out of NOP he can get.

2) Chris Paul called to say he's not sure why it is so irrational to think that players and their agents conventionally perceive it to be smarter to be a featured player in New York or LA than it is to be one in New Orleans... or, sadly for some of us, Atlanta.

3) Barrett is a 2 who may play some 3 in small ball. Ingram is a 3 who may play some 4 in small ball--and as he puts on some of the girth that tends to naturally evolve as players get older.

As for 1, sure. He can do that. He can sign a 3 year offer sheet elsewhere, which also includes the lower 5% raises. But then he’s fully signed for 3 years, and by life season, NO could shop him fully for the best package they want, not at all what Ingram may want. So, NO could theoretically keep him 3 years for cheaper, or trade him for max value. I don’t see a lose for them here.

Ingram doesnt care about being in LA tho bc he was kicked out and probably cares abt getting most money like Kawhi because of his personality.

Ok? I didn’t say anything about LA. Just that NO is likely in a good spot even if Ingram wants out as soon as he can.

[NoZoLakers]

opt 4 has no shot of happening

[_s_t_u_r_t_]

Ingram doesnt care about being in LA tho bc he was kicked out and probably cares abt getting most money like Kawhi because of his personality.

That's my perception as well. He's a nice enough guy, but he strikes me as the kind of person who takes it very personally if he's not getting respected to the degree he thinks he should. I also think he mainly tolerated the attention Zion got. I think that's already gotten under his skin, but he's been smart enough in this contract year to not give any actual specific quotes to affirm it.

[HornetJail]

I'd expect NO wants 5 years, while Ingram may push for the 3 + 1 year PO.

Ingram didn't really do much after the All-Star Game if one bothers to go look at the game logs.

And just prior to the ASG, there remained explicit skepticism among anonymous NBA executives interviewed for an ESPN story whether NOP would make a max offer.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28737693/nine-chaotic-moments-shake-suddenly-stable-nba



Thus... more likely the other way around, imo.

Atlanta, New York, Detroit definitely have a max slot to throw at RFAs right? They'd be dumb not to if there's any doubt of NOLA being willing to match. Depending on where the cap ends up, Charlotte may have $20M and could try to pull a Zeller or Rozier trade for a cheaper, worse player, to make that happen.

[_s_t_u_r_t_]

opt 4 has no shot of happening

I can't get to "no shot," but I think you're right to think it's not very likely. Still, might be underappreciating that what fans think and what scouts/execs think can be two different things.

[_s_t_u_r_t_]

I'd expect NO wants 5 years, while Ingram may push for the 3 + 1 year PO.

Ingram didn't really do much after the All-Star Game if one bothers to go look at the game logs.

And just prior to the ASG, there remained explicit skepticism among anonymous NBA executives interviewed for an ESPN story whether NOP would make a max offer.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28737693/nine-chaotic-moments-shake-suddenly-stable-nba



Thus... more likely the other way around, imo.

Atlanta, New York, Detroit definitely have a max slot to throw at RFAs right? They'd be dumb not to if there's any doubt of NOLA being willing to match. Depending on where the cap ends up, Charlotte may have $20M and could try to pull a Zeller or Rozier trade for a cheaper, worse player, to make that happen.

DET may be more preoccupied with keeping Wood and/or pursuing FVV.

I have little doubt that one of ATL or NYK will sign him to an offer.

What could be a #5 here... there could be a sign-and-trade that NOP would find tempting.

[kobe_vs_jordan]

If Pels hardball him, they might as well sell the team to another owner. It's the fast track to a player existing.

[pacers33granger]

Unless NOP for some reason sees a longterm risk with his health, they're offering him the max the second they can and calling it a day. He earned it with his play this season.

[Kurt Heimlich]

The only question really worth discussion is whether the Pelicans make Ingram get an offer sheet or negotiate a deal prior to that. Taking the QO is such a historically big mistake that I don't see that as an actual option.

If I'm the Pelicans I use the current market turmoil over revenue appropriately and offer a sub max offer in the relative ball park of Jaylen Brown (maybe a bit less in light of market conditions). If he refuses then I let him test the market and match accordingly.

[_s_t_u_r_t_]

Unless NOP for some reason sees a longterm risk with his health, they're offering him the max the second they can and calling it a day. He earned it with his play this season.

Like I said. That's the fan talk. But he was not the difference maker after the ASG that he was before it. And even before it, at least among those gathered around the table for the ESPN story above, "most" executives did not share your point of view. It stands to reason that that's even more the case post-ASG.

[pacers33granger]

Unless NOP for some reason sees a longterm risk with his health, they're offering him the max the second they can and calling it a day. He earned it with his play this season.

Like I said. That's the fan talk. But he was not the difference maker after the ASG that he was before it. And even before it, at least among those gathered around the table for the ESPN story above, "most" executives did not share your point of view. It stands to reason that that's even more the case post-ASG.

Are you referring to the bubble? I wouldn't put all that much stock into the play there honestly. Or are you also referring to the 9 games before everything shutdown? He wasn't as good as prior sure, but that's a small sample. And I think he was injured around that time too? Plus Zion was playing then and the team was acclimating to him.

I get it, there's still some concerns. But if NOP doesn't offer it, someone will.