serge removes all raptors content on his social media, Serge responds page 3

[Morse Code]

Come on people there is a cap hold that would affect our ability to sign giannis. If you give Serge 30 Mil then his cap hold would be similar to Lowry’s of 42 Mil. So basically you beed to renounce Lowry and Ibaka to sogn Giannis and you can only sign Ibaka and Lowry to small deals then. So which player in their right mind would take a big one year deal from a team knowing they wont keep him after that. Serge is not taking a min contract in 2021 he can easily get 20 mil for 3 to 4 yrs. Thats 80 Mil, so your telling me hed give up 80 Mil to take 30 Mil. Face it, makes no sense to keep Serge if your wanting Giannis and he knows it too.

Its either Fred or Serge this summer we will have to make a decision.

Assets can always be traded. Contracts attached to talented players can always be moved which may introduce some wrinkles in the sequencing of free agent signings and trades. Unconstrain your thinking.

If it’s between Fred and Serge I’m taking Serge 11 times out of 10.

[BDDray420]

I think Serge actually wants to be in Toronto compared to Fred, who seems like he'll take the biggest paycheck he can get.

[Psubs]

Come on people there is a cap hold that would affect our ability to sign giannis. If you give Serge 30 Mil then his cap hold would be similar to Lowry’s of 42 Mil. So basically you beed to renounce Lowry and Ibaka to sogn Giannis and you can only sign Ibaka and Lowry to small deals then. So which player in their right mind would take a big one year deal from a team knowing they wont keep him after that. Serge is not taking a min contract in 2021 he can easily get 20 mil for 3 to 4 yrs. Thats 80 Mil, so your telling me hed give up 80 Mil to take 30 Mil. Face it, makes no sense to keep Serge if your wanting Giannis and he knows it too.

Its either Fred or Serge this summer we will have to make a decision.

Assets can always be traded. Contracts attached to talented players can always be moved which may introduce some wrinkles in the sequencing of free agent signings and trades. Unconstrain your thinking.

If it’s between Fred and Serge I’m taking Serge 11 times out of 10.

Fred is much easier to replace as there are so many guards that end up in the 2nd round or undrafted. Tougher to find a Serge.

Only thing would be age. Isn't Serge really 35?

I think Serge actually wants to be in Toronto compared to Fred, who seems like he'll take the biggest paycheck he can get.

Does Serge want to be in Kentucky though?

[fbalmeida]

Fred may in fact leave. Among potential cap-space suitors, I'm not sure how eager he'd be to play for Casey again, and I think the Heat may compromise their cap space for 2021 by signing him. This leaves the Suns as the most significant threat. Meanwhile, on a sign-and-trade he could end up virtually anywhere.

If he does leave, our future has a distinctly different and uncertain look to it.

1. Powell becomes a starter, but will likely remain a potential trade-piece because of his player option in 2021.
2. It creates an immediate and difficult need to fill at PG. Subtracting Fred's 17 M cap hold this year won't buy us a decent starting PG because there are none to be found in the UFA pool, frankly. The development pipeline is unlikely to produce another Fred within the next two years. And lastly, via trade, our starting PG will most likely end up being someone who is either too old, a defensive liability, or both.
3. We'll arrive at the 2021 Giannis sweepstakes with a good team that will most likely lack exactly what Fred, and looking at starting PG's around the league that are his age, only Fred could provide: a high-IQ elite 3+D point guard that is just about to to enter his physical peak at the same time as Giannis.

I can't see Masai letting him go.

[TorontoRapsFan]

Fred may in fact leave. Among potential cap-space suitors, I'm not sure how eager he'd be to play for Casey again, and I think the Heat may compromise their cap space for 2021 by signing him. This leaves the Suns as the most significant threat. Meanwhile, on a sign-and-trade he could end up virtually anywhere.

If he does leave, our future has a distinctly different and uncertain look to it.

1. Powell becomes a starter, but will likely remain a potential trade-piece because of his player option in 2021.
2. It creates an immediate and difficult need to fill at PG. Subtracting Fred's 17 M cap hold this year won't buy us a decent starting PG because there are none to be found in the UFA pool, frankly. The development pipeline is unlikely to produce another Fred within the next two years. And lastly, via trade, our starting PG will most likely end up being someone who is either too old, a defensive liability, or both.
3. We'll arrive at the 2021 Giannis sweepstakes with a good team that will most likely lack exactly what Fred, and looking at starting PG's around the league that are his age, only Fred could provide: a high-IQ elite 3+D point guard that is just about to to enter his physical peak at the same time as Giannis.

I can't see Masai letting him go.

So Lowry isn't playing next year?

[fbalmeida]

Fred may in fact leave. Among potential cap-space suitors, I'm not sure how eager he'd be to play for Casey again, and I think the Heat may compromise their cap space for 2021 by signing him. This leaves the Suns as the most significant threat. Meanwhile, on a sign-and-trade he could end up virtually anywhere.

If he does leave, our future has a distinctly different and uncertain look to it.

1. Powell becomes a starter, but will likely remain a potential trade-piece because of his player option in 2021.
2. It creates an immediate and difficult need to fill at PG. Subtracting Fred's 17 M cap hold this year won't buy us a decent starting PG because there are none to be found in the UFA pool, frankly. The development pipeline is unlikely to produce another Fred within the next two years. And lastly, via trade, our starting PG will most likely end up being someone who is either too old, a defensive liability, or both.
3. We'll arrive at the 2021 Giannis sweepstakes with a good team that will most likely lack exactly what Fred, and looking at starting PG's around the league that are his age, only Fred could provide: a high-IQ elite 3+D point guard that is just about to to enter his physical peak at the same time as Giannis.

I can't see Masai letting him go.

So Lowry isn't playing next year?

I think 2020-21 is Lowry's last season as a Raptor.

After re-signing Fred this year, max-slotting Giannis, re-signing OG and TD2 on bird-rights, and having one good big or two decent bigs on the roster, I don't see room over the 125% cap threshold for a salary that Lowry could agree to in 2021. It would be amazing if he tagged on for a Giannis-run for scraps. But I don't see it happening.

136 M (109 M x 1.25 luxury cap threshold)
-32.7 M for Giannis
-31 for Siakam
-21 for Fred.
-12 to spend on 2 bigs and stock the bench
-------------------
Leaves roughly 40 M to re-sign OG (20-is range), Davis (15-ish) , and possibly extend Watson, Brissett, Thomas, or all three.
Whatever is left could be for Lowry.

Short answer is no.

[Parataxis]

Davis (15-ish) ,.

TERENCE Davis?! 60/4 on his second contract?

[Psubs]

Davis (15-ish) ,.

TERENCE Davis?! 60/4 on his second contract?

If the Raptors retain FVV, they would save money on Terence Davis as he's still blocked on the depth chart.

[fbalmeida]

Davis (15-ish) ,.

TERENCE Davis?! 60/4 on his second contract?

If the Raptors retain FVV, they would save money on Terence Davis as he's still blocked on the depth chart.

You're both right. 15 M would require a breakout year that Lowry's presence will deny. How Lowry's conditioning and play pans out this year is going to dictate the timing. Per 36 minutes, Davis registered 16 ppg 7.1 rebounds (!) 3.4 assists 1.2 steals on 45.6 - 38.8 - 86.4.

I think both Watson and Terence's potential are terrifying, but I agree. 15 Mil is a reach. So maybe we can keep Lowry.

[Psubs]

Ibaka's FT % has dropped around 4% the last 4 seasons.

I guess he used to shoot more jumpers around the elbow but now shooting 3's made him lose some touch in close?

[jimmy keys]

Fred may in fact leave. Among potential cap-space suitors, I'm not sure how eager he'd be to play for Casey again, and I think the Heat may compromise their cap space for 2021 by signing him. This leaves the Suns as the most significant threat. Meanwhile, on a sign-and-trade he could end up virtually anywhere.

If he does leave, our future has a distinctly different and uncertain look to it.

1. Powell becomes a starter, but will likely remain a potential trade-piece because of his player option in 2021.
2. It creates an immediate and difficult need to fill at PG. Subtracting Fred's 17 M cap hold this year won't buy us a decent starting PG because there are none to be found in the UFA pool, frankly. The development pipeline is unlikely to produce another Fred within the next two years. And lastly, via trade, our starting PG will most likely end up being someone who is either too old, a defensive liability, or both.
3. We'll arrive at the 2021 Giannis sweepstakes with a good team that will most likely lack exactly what Fred, and looking at starting PG's around the league that are his age, only Fred could provide: a high-IQ elite 3+D point guard that is just about to to enter his physical peak at the same time as Giannis.

I can't see Masai letting him go.

So Lowry isn't playing next year?

I think 2020-21 is Lowry's last season as a Raptor.

After re-signing Fred this year, max-slotting Giannis, re-signing OG and TD2 on bird-rights, and having one good big or two decent bigs on the roster, I don't see room over the 125% cap threshold for a salary that Lowry could agree to in 2021. It would be amazing if he tagged on for a Giannis-run for scraps. But I don't see it happening.

136 M (109 M x 1.25 luxury cap threshold)
-32.7 M for Giannis
-31 for Siakam
-21 for Fred.
-12 to spend on 2 bigs and stock the bench
-------------------
Leaves roughly 40 M to re-sign OG (20-is range), Davis (15-ish) , and possibly extend Watson, Brissett, Thomas, or all three.
Whatever is left could be for Lowry.

Short answer is no.

Pretty sure they can only re-sign Davis II with cap space, the bi-annual or the mid-level. Long story short he won't be making 15 million in any scenario. They could bring Lowry back for roughly 8-10 mil depending on a few factors. Davis II will probably sign a 2 year mid level type deal. I think his bird rights cap him at 2.6 mil max.

[fbalmeida]

Yeah I made two mistakes there regarding Davis. He's non-bird and likely to sign for much less than 15 M. He's an RFA in 2021 and may attract some money but not that much. The 2021 SG UFA and RFA pool has names like Mitchell, Demar, Dipo, Hardaway, Josh Hart, Gary Trent, Nunn, Caruso, and Bradley.

So we might have the room to retire Lowry as a dino after all.