Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory

[pepe1991]

I'm just going through this average salaries of players, and for 2020 average salary was 7,4M
This "average" includes deep bench guys and 13-14 men rotation.
Witch means that average salary of starter is probably close to $15-20 a year.

Ofc this number is inflated because of amount of not so deserved max contracts.

[BadMofoPimp]

To me, it's getting Fournier and DJ far away from this place and putting the ball in Fultz hands much more.

DJ and Fournier are much more productive than Aminu.

Not the point.

So, you are all for paying a scrub to sit on the bench than players that can win games just because of personal bias. I understand now.

[Xatticus]

I'm just going through this average salaries of players, and for 2020 average salary was 7,4M
This "average" includes deep bench guys and 13-14 men rotation.
Witch means that average salary of starter is probably close to $15-20 a year.

Ofc this number is inflated because of amount of not so deserved max contracts.

That doesn't mean anything. Whether a player is starting or not tells you nothing of their value. You can start anyone on your roster in as many games as you'd like. How many of our players would start for the Nuggets? ...or the Lakers? ...or the Bucks? Does this mean that we don't have any starters and that nobody on this roster should be paid whatever figure you have calculated is the average? That statement probably has more truth than what you are arguing for.

The actual average starter salary is likely depressed due to the amount of money that legitimate stars would earn if their salaries weren't capped. Would a team pay Giannis $80M per year? Someone probably would. Having max salaries essentially punishes every team that doesn't have anyone worth earning a max contract. It leaves more money in the marketplace for every other player. Rookie-scale contracts do the same. It almost guarantees that everyone else that isn't on a rookie-scale or max deal is going to get overpaid.

What is the point of this post? Are you trying to convince someone that the contracts we are paying out are worth the investment?
When you look at our roster, it is unfathomable that we had a higher payroll than 25 other franchises. We obviously are not getting value for our money and we haven't for a long time.

You consistently argue against change and rationalize the size of contracts. What is it that you are actually hoping to see from the Orlando Magic? It seems to me that you perceive any course other than the current course as a move in the wrong direction. For me, it seems obvious that we took a wrong turn way back and have steadfastly refused to try a different route out of sheer stupidity, incompetence, or stubbornness.

[pepe1991]

I'm just going through this average salaries of players, and for 2020 average salary was 7,4M
This "average" includes deep bench guys and 13-14 men rotation.
Witch means that average salary of starter is probably close to $15-20 a year.

Ofc this number is inflated because of amount of not so deserved max contracts.

That doesn't mean anything. Whether a player is starting or not tells you nothing of their value. You can start anyone on your roster in as many games as you'd like. How many of our players would start for the Nuggets? ...or the Lakers? ...or the Bucks? Does this mean that we don't have any starters and that nobody on this roster should be paid whatever figure you have calculated is the average? That statement probably has more truth than what you are arguing for.

The actual average starter salary is likely depressed due to the amount of money that legitimate stars would earn if their salaries weren't capped. Would a team pay Giannis $80M per year? Someone probably would. Having max salaries essentially punishes every team that doesn't have anyone worth earning a max contract. It leaves more money in the marketplace for every other player. Rookie-scale contracts do the same. It almost guarantees that everyone else that isn't on a rookie-scale or max deal is going to get overpaid.

What is the point of this post? Are you trying to convince someone that the contracts we are paying out are worth the investment?
When you look at our roster, it is unfathomable that we had a higher payroll than 25 other franchises. We obviously are not getting value for our money and we haven't for a long time.

You consistently argue against change and rationalize the size of contracts. What is it that you are actually hoping to see from the Orlando Magic? It seems to me that you perceive any course other than the current course as a move in the wrong direction. For me, it seems obvious that we took a wrong turn way back and have steadfastly refused to try a different route out of sheer stupidity, incompetence, or stubbornness.

Wait a second, this is bunch of things i didn't say , because you think my post was direct reply to Knightro. it wasn't. We posted 7 min apart, and i saw his comment after i posted mine.
I posted what average salary for starter is. This is factual point.
I didn't angle anything, i didn't suggest anything, just posted something that is fact.

Then you go on prolonged monologue about what somebody would be payed if salary didn't exist, witch, once again,has nothing to do with my post.
Would somebody pay Giannis $80M a year ? Yes, but it has nothing to do with "average salary of starter" . Just like it's pointless to debate imaginary scenario where salary cap doesn't exist. We know in soccer what happends when you remove salaries, teams go bananas over 18 years old boys, most major teams find themselfs paying teengers $120M and they are shocked when 19 years old boy has almost no motive to play. Shocking. But it has nothing with my post


I do not argue against changes. I argue against brainless changes and bottoming out scenarios where whole world knows economy is too stiff to do anything like that. Teams are bleeding money already, why bleed even more money for something that was already failed process before corona was even a thing, and Magic rebuild ended up looking just how Suns, Knicks, Kings and T wovles rebuild went. In years of missery. If Magic tanked whole year and ended with 4th pick would that team had any better projectory for future than it has now? Not really. Would adding somebody like Dandre Hunter really change fortune of this team? Not really. Those are lottery picks teams are landing. For every Morant there is army of Jarrett Culvers who are years away from being bench contributors.

And it's not like anybody will call me from Orlando to ask what to do. They will do their thing regardless what we say. We can argue,agree or not agree

[The Real Dalic]

DJ and Fournier are much more productive than Aminu.

Not the point.

So, you are all for paying a scrub to sit on the bench than players that can win games just because of personal bias. I understand now.

I personally just want to see Fultz with the ball in his hands while he's in the game instead of going to the corner while he's a below average shooter and a great finisher and a decent playmaker.

Fournier has proven to be clutch in terms of making shots, but not in terms of making plays for himself and others. DJ is horrendous in terms of making plays and passing. He's a good scorer that can hit open shots. That's about it.

It makes no sense to take the ball out of the hands of the guy that can't shoot, but can make plays for himself and others. It makes no sense for the two that can't make plays for themselves or others to have the ball in their hands, especially when they're elite shooters. Those things are not really Fournier or DJ's fault, it's on Clifford to put the ball in the hands of Fultz, but we're not going to fire Clifford, and I don't want to right now anyway, as he's done a decent job so far outside of late game situations, in my opinion.

But Fournier and DJ are also nothing special and we can find a DJ replacement anywhere. I don't think Fournier has much of a future on this team, so might as well move him and see what we can get on a year where we'll probably struggle with no Isaac. If Fournier were to buy into being the 4th option, assuming the starting 5 stays intact, I'd be all for keeping him as he is a great shooter. But he's had too big a role and has had the ball in his hands far too often. He's just not good at that role. It's time for Weltham to actually do their jobs and stop benefitting off of the team that Hennigan created.

We also didn't really see enough of Aminu to know how he fits on this team right now. With no Isaac, it would be nice to have a starter that has experience and can play decent defense and hit at least 32% from 3 starting at the 4, or playing as the primary backup 4.

He was injured very early on in the season. He was nothing special, but if he can rebound, defend, hit a 3 here and there, I don't have a problem with him.

[zaymon]

Not the point.

So, you are all for paying a scrub to sit on the bench than players that can win games just because of personal bias. I understand now.

I personally just want to see Fultz with the ball in his hands while he's in the game instead of going to the corner while he's a below average shooter and a great finisher and a decent playmaker.

Fournier has proven to be clutch in terms of making shots, but not in terms of making plays for himself and others. DJ is horrendous in terms of making plays and passing. He's a good scorer that can hit open shots. That's about it.

It makes no sense to take the ball out of the hands of the guy that can't shoot, but can make plays for himself and others. It makes no sense for the two that can't make plays for themselves or others to have the ball in their hands, especially when they're elite shooters. Those things are not really Fournier or DJ's fault, it's on Clifford to put the ball in the hands of Fultz, but we're not going to fire Clifford, and I don't want to right now anyway, as he's done a decent job so far outside of late game situations, in my opinion.

But Fournier and DJ are also nothing special and we can find a DJ replacement anywhere. I don't think Fournier has much of a future on this team, so might as well move him and see what we can get on a year where we'll probably struggle with no Isaac. If Fournier were to buy into being the 4th option, assuming the starting 5 stays intact, I'd be all for keeping him as he is a great shooter. But he's had too big a role and has had the ball in his hands far too often. He's just not good at that role. It's time for Weltham to actually do their jobs and stop benefitting off of the team that Hennigan created.

We also didn't really see enough of Aminu to know how he fits on this team right now. With no Isaac, it would be nice to have a starter that has experience and can play decent defense and hit at least 32% from 3 starting at the 4, or playing as the primary backup 4.

He was injured very early on in the season. He was nothing special, but if he can rebound, defend, hit a 3 here and there, I don't have a problem with him.

I think playing Fultz off the ball is as much about building good habits than effective strategy right now. He was also exhausted everytime he took over a game late, comimg down with cramps so its not sustainable with him. From every Fournier comment you can hear he knows Fultz could be our future and he has no problem with it. You cant ask more from good veteran with regard to attitude.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

Sam Vecenie Podcast was an interesting one this past week, we're the last 30 minutes.

Key points: Says he and others excpect Fournier to opt out and look for a multi year deal something like 4/50-60ish range. Said Magic would be smart to just lock up Isaac this offseason and be done with that. Also said the only path forward is to start cashing in and re tool. This is the season to do it with no JI and the draft is loaded next year. Had a interesting AG to Miami move which would make me laugh because it's a Riley move.


Seems like everyone outside of our moronic FO says it's time to retool and not fight for an 8th seed.

[drsd]

The actual average starter salary is likely depressed due to the amount of money that legitimate stars would earn if their salaries weren't capped. Would a team pay Giannis $80M per year?

I recall an editorial some 3-5 years back that without a cap, James' salary would project above 100M a year.

My point: Antetokounmpo would find at least 10 teams willing to pay him 80M a year if there was no cap on other signings. In other words: all major market and mid-market teams.

,..

[SOUL]

Seems like everyone outside of our moronic FO says it's time to retool and not fight for an 8th seed.

It's just super obvious. Arguing against it is arguing against logic, I don't care what people say to try to argue for it tbh.

Sometimes you gotta take 1 step back (especially when all signs point to it) to take a bigger step forward. It doesn't mean a 10 year committal to tanking or anything, we can literally start competing again or trading for certain sorts of players right after this coming year, but following 2 seasons we backed into the 7th/8th seed, and in our best season being 11 games under .500 after deciding to beat a bunch of teams that had nothing to look forward to, it gives fans the illusion of some huge improvement from the 29-35 win teams a few years ago. We really haven't done **** in the grand scheme of things and these combinations of players have run its course.

[basketballRob]

When Weltman took over he said that we'd have to make the playoffs to get players value up. Right now Vuc will never have higher value. Will Weltman practice what he preaches and sell high?

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[nymets1]

A co worker at work today told me about Lake Mary Sports Complex. I'm going to have to try that Saturday as Westmonte park is definetly my favorite outdoor basketball court. The problem with Westmonte park is as soon as it gets dark, play is over as there's no lights for the basketball court. But Lake Mary Sports Complex has lights for the basketball court.

[Bensational]

A co worker at work today told me about Lake Mary Sports Complex. I'm going to have to try that Saturday as Westmonte park is definetly my favorite outdoor basketball court. The problem with Westmonte park is as soon as it gets dark, play is over as there's no lights for the basketball court. But Lake Mary Sports Complex has lights for the basketball court.

I've missed you.

[axl_c_cool]

Now is 100% the time to blow it up.

- As others have said Vucevic value will never be higher
- Gordon’s value will only go down
- Loaded 2021 draft
- Fans can’t go to games anyway

Ideally

Vucevic to GSW for Wiggins + #2 + Future 1st
Gordon For Dinwiddle
Ross, Fournier, and Aminu for picks/expiring

Fultz/MCW/Augustine
Dinwiddle/Iwundu
Wiggins/Frazer jr/Clark
Okeke/Ennis III
Bamba/Birch
*+ 2 1st round pick, 1 2nd round pick, and Isaac

That’s how our roster should look after the draft. That team will lose a lot of games but with Isaac back, 2 top 16 picks in 2020, a top pick in 2021, and cap room, we should be in a much better place.

[UnFadeable21]

Read on Twitter

?s=21

The Orlando Magic had the fifth-highest payroll in the league, and it was clear they did not get the full bang for their buck. That hurts the team’s future.




The Orlando Magic are playing a waiting game with their roster.

They are trying to maintain assets and remain competitive in hopes they can one day swing the big trade to bring in a star that ties the whole thing together.

That is how quickly things can change in the league.

But ultimately, a team only goes as far as its best players. They have to carry the load and push the team forward. In the big moments — and especially the Playoffs — they are the ones carrying the team.

If the Magic have a problem it is their lack of top-end players. They have guys who are good enough to play a role and collectively good enough to make the Playoffs, but likely no more.

The problem the Magic ran into this season was their wait for one of their young veterans to take another step up and elevate the team. Whether because of the injuries or otherwise that did not happen.

And the numbers show the Magic’s big-salary players failed to deliver. That has created an offseason of questions for this team.

Jeff Weltman is certainly considering that and weighing how best to move his team forward. While fans are hungry for change, he might ultimately decide his best path is to stay the course a bit longer or he might decide it is time to completely revamp the team.

Both options are in front of the Magic. And they are here because the 2020 season did not live up to expectations. The team’s stagnation has put the team at a seeming crossroads.

It is important for Weltman and the Magic to be purposeful with whatever moves they make.

Still, it is tough to ask fans to be patient with a team that has seemingly topped off at the 7-seed and a record hovering near .500 that also has the fifth-highest payroll in the league. Ultimately, the Magic’s success in rebuilding this team will come from finding value and getting the most of the players they draft (most importantly) and the free agents and extensions they sign.

Certainly, the 2020 season was a disappointing one. It depressed the value of a lot of the team’s players. That will make creating trades difficult.

[VFX]

Read on Twitter

?s=21

The Orlando Magic had the fifth-highest payroll in the league, and it was clear they did not get the full bang for their buck. That hurts the team’s future.




The Orlando Magic are playing a waiting game with their roster.

They are trying to maintain assets and remain competitive in hopes they can one day swing the big trade to bring in a star that ties the whole thing together.

That is how quickly things can change in the league.

But ultimately, a team only goes as far as its best players. They have to carry the load and push the team forward. In the big moments — and especially the Playoffs — they are the ones carrying the team.

If the Magic have a problem it is their lack of top-end players. They have guys who are good enough to play a role and collectively good enough to make the Playoffs, but likely no more.

The problem the Magic ran into this season was their wait for one of their young veterans to take another step up and elevate the team. Whether because of the injuries or otherwise that did not happen.

And the numbers show the Magic’s big-salary players failed to deliver. That has created an offseason of questions for this team.

Jeff Weltman is certainly considering that and weighing how best to move his team forward. While fans are hungry for change, he might ultimately decide his best path is to stay the course a bit longer or he might decide it is time to completely revamp the team.

Both options are in front of the Magic. And they are here because the 2020 season did not live up to expectations. The team’s stagnation has put the team at a seeming crossroads.

It is important for Weltman and the Magic to be purposeful with whatever moves they make.

Still, it is tough to ask fans to be patient with a team that has seemingly topped off at the 7-seed and a record hovering near .500 that also has the fifth-highest payroll in the league. Ultimately, the Magic’s success in rebuilding this team will come from finding value and getting the most of the players they draft (most importantly) and the free agents and extensions they sign.

Certainly, the 2020 season was a disappointing one. It depressed the value of a lot of the team’s players. That will make creating trades difficult.

Yeah, I can already hear the homers saying “they are at a low value so we shouldn’t trade them and stay the course”. There is never an opportune time for change for these people.

The problem with the bolded statement is that it’s not realistic. No combination of players on this roster equals a “star” in a “swing big trade”. Not happening.

Every realistic magic fan knew this team wasn’t making it out of the first round of the playoffs, with or without Isaac. The outcome wasn’t surprising to anyone except Weltman and Hammond.

I also don’t feel bad for this front office. They decided to take the path of least resistance and whiffed. They had plenty of opportunities to make moves with players having higher value. Too bad.

[Knightro]

Until they actually pull the trigger on a retool/rebuild and accept the inevitable step backwards that comes with that, I’m skeptical this front office is actually going to do it or that ownership would even allow this front office to do it.

But man... if there was ever a time to unload some veterans and make moves with an eye toward the future, this would be the year.

Isaac is out for the season already and the ownership group can’t really even use the “if we take a step back it will kill us in terms of ticket sales” excuse because it’s a near certainty that they won’t be allowed to have anywhere near max capacity the entire year anyway.

[Ducklett]

Until they actually pull the trigger on a retool/rebuild and accept the inevitable step backwards that comes with that, I’m skeptical this front office is actually going to do it or that ownership would even allow this front office to do it.

But man... if there was ever a time to unload some veterans and make moves with an eye toward the future, this would be the year.

Isaac is out for the season already and the ownership group can’t really even use the “if we take a step back it will kill us in terms of ticket sales” excuse because it’s a near certainty that they won’t be allowed to have anywhere near max capacity the entire year anyway.

This is the year to burn the young players, trade the old players, and see what happens record wise. No reason to hard tank.

[Bensational]

Until they actually pull the trigger on a retool/rebuild and accept the inevitable step backwards that comes with that, I’m skeptical this front office is actually going to do it or that ownership would even allow this front office to do it.

But man... if there was ever a time to unload some veterans and make moves with an eye toward the future, this would be the year.

Isaac is out for the season already and the ownership group can’t really even use the “if we take a step back it will kill us in terms of ticket sales” excuse because it’s a near certainty that they won’t be allowed to have anywhere near max capacity the entire year anyway.

That's just the thing - I simply don't believe WeHam make moves to lose, even if they were gifted the head start like Evan opting out. And if the play-in format continues and opens playoff potential up to the top 12 teams in the East, then I can't see them resisting that temptation.

But like you said, it's a perfect storm of factors to sweep a season under the rug. Take a bigger loss this season for hopefully a larger return in 2022, if we can return with a stud or two by then.

We kinda need Gordon or Vuc to demand a trade, just to force us into a shake up. It's a blessing and a curse that they're not like that.

[VFX]

If they don’t make a real move this offseason they never will.

[pepe1991]

You can't force trades. Period.

Ok so you want to unload " old players" ( 25 and 30 years old players aren't old but whever).

So you let teams know Gordon is up to grabs and your return calls are:
1) Knicks 8th pick and Randle
2) Spurs 11pick and Rudy Gay and filler
3) Celtics 14# pick, Kanter and Smart


So on surface you are getting in lottery, in reality you really don't raise the floor of this team nor actually add any positive value. It's almost guaranteed that anybody drafted after 5th pick will ever be better player than Gordon and second player you add is just role player, mostly overpayed .


Same is with Vučević. Wolves won't take him, Warriors could only offer Wiggins in return and use pick to make another trade, Bulls don't need him, Hornets have nothing to offer Magic but pick, Bulls have Carter, Cavs have Drummond, Hawks have Capela, Pistons have Wood, Wizards can't package enough returning salary to make a trade legal.
Any Celtics trade is around Hayward, but in that case Magic have to find additional $8 M player to send ( pretty much Bamba or Isaac) or trade isn't even possible. All that to get 14th pick? Hard pass.


Just because one team, in this case Magic can be interested in trades, that doesn't mean teams will just help you do it because your fanbase is ready. When Magic were trading Howard, guy was legit top 10 player, multiple DPOY they got like 3 offers. Nets, Lakers and Mavericks. And where Howard and Chris Paul did talk about joining Dallas, Paul, in story he told himself, had in plans to sign as free agent, but Dallas flat out didn't have anything that Magic wanted in trades. And whole plan simply did not happen.

Teams don't do trades because they are bored. Trades have to have some upside. Dumping Gordon and Vuc for draft picks in what looks like the worst draft since 2006 isn't good returning value. Next year around, same posters here would be crying how terrible team is as Magic are now having 2 - Mario Hezonja's running around being clueless, along with crumbling roster with no value. Isaac is good young player, but with series of injuries there is zero reasons to belive he will be back in 2022 and just "save" this team. Actually there is plenty of reasons to belive - he won't. And he will probably still struggle with injuries through his whole career. Guy isn't build for nba.

As far as 2021 draft goes, you can have 5th worst record and draft 8th. Once again, not really adding anybody special, just another prospect..