2020 Presidential Election Thread: The Homestretch... Still

[BKlutch]

Nate Silver already hedging his bets as reality sets in... A hahahahahahahahaa, snort, inhale, ahahahahahahhahaha!

https://www.axios.com/pennsylvania-biden-underdog-nate-silver-2c1fb6c6-c75f-4cf5-9ee6-d51df1741e2b.html

Joe Biden will become "an underdog" if he fails to win Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver said on ABC's "This Week" Sunday.

What he's saying: Silver told "This Week" that if Trump ends up winning the election, "it would come down to Pennsylvania."

"Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin. It's 5 points. It's not a big early voting state, so a lot of votes have not yet been cast in Pennsylvania," Silver said."Among the votes that were sent in by mail, there are some provisions about a naked ballot, a security envelope. That could make things more complicated. You could have the courts involved. You have some protests, looting in Philadelphia. There's lots of stuff going on.""Maybe a lot of little things add up and Biden loses Pennsylvania by half a point, and then he doesn't quite pull off Arizona or North Carolina. He does have other options. ... But still, without Pennsylvania, then Biden becomes an underdog."

Silver is such a pussy. What happened to Biden having a 90% chance of winning?

P.S. See? You posted a reasonable comment with evidentiary support from a reputable news source. Well done!

Biden’s still has a probability of winning at 90%. But remember probability is not predictive and doesn’t account for something like election fraud, a Comey letter a week before the election or a tornado. Read this and chill out. Nate’s not being a pussy as much as just following what the model probability based on a Trump win in Pennsylvania.

Read on Twitter

And read this article.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-toast-if-he-loses-pennsylvania/

So here’s a question we can ask with our nifty scenario generator. Is Pennsylvania a must-win for Biden?

No, not quite. It is close to being a must-win for Trump, who has only a 2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College if he loses Pennsylvania. Biden, however, has a bit more margin for error. He’d have a 30 percent chance if he lost Pennsylvania, which isn’t great but is also higher than, say, Trump’s overall chances on Election Day 2016.

We should all be careful in giving articles the right connotation when discuss them. Nate Silver is not saying that Biden becomes the underdog and a worse candidate if he loses Pennsylvania. I believe he is talking about he the polls are weighted and interpreted. A loss in Pennsylvania for Biden could point to a systematic error that makes his other swing state polling numbers suspect. So sorry, Wingo, we wouldn't say he's a wimp for not leading with his emotions and instead, discussing polling methodology as it relates to predictive ability.

Now tell me, isn't this more important than who won the Finals?

[BKlutch]

Trump is reported to have said that if Biden doesn't have an electoral majority on November 3, he will go ahead and claim victory in order to influence court decisions to give him the election.

Whether or not he does that, polling of actual voters will indicate the victor in most states after the polls close. Various Cable and News networks are going to call the race when they have enough polling information. The officially certified winner will not be announced, of course, until the votes are all tallied.

This graphic from FiveThirtyEight.com today shows which states are likely to have the official tallies by which date. Surprisingly NY State, which will vote overwhelmingly for Biden, is not among those expected to report on November 3. Will Trump claim victory in NY State, too? Haha.

[Oscirus]

now he's just **** with everybody

https://www.yahoo.com/news/fbi-probing-trump-caravan-confrontation-011054281.html

[aq_ua]

"Hi honey, I haven't seen you all day! What did you get up today?"

"Oh, you know, the boys got together and decided to blockaded a bridge and run a campaign bus off the road, how about you?"

"I finished weeding the garden and planted poinsettias, that took ages!"

[HarthorneWingo]

Nate Silver already hedging his bets as reality sets in... A hahahahahahahahaa, snort, inhale, ahahahahahahhahaha!

https://www.axios.com/pennsylvania-biden-underdog-nate-silver-2c1fb6c6-c75f-4cf5-9ee6-d51df1741e2b.html

Joe Biden will become "an underdog" if he fails to win Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver said on ABC's "This Week" Sunday.

What he's saying: Silver told "This Week" that if Trump ends up winning the election, "it would come down to Pennsylvania."

"Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin. It's 5 points. It's not a big early voting state, so a lot of votes have not yet been cast in Pennsylvania," Silver said."Among the votes that were sent in by mail, there are some provisions about a naked ballot, a security envelope. That could make things more complicated. You could have the courts involved. You have some protests, looting in Philadelphia. There's lots of stuff going on.""Maybe a lot of little things add up and Biden loses Pennsylvania by half a point, and then he doesn't quite pull off Arizona or North Carolina. He does have other options. ... But still, without Pennsylvania, then Biden becomes an underdog."

Silver is such a pussy. What happened to Biden having a 90% chance of winning?

P.S. See? You posted a reasonable comment with evidentiary support from a reputable news source. Well done!

Biden’s still has a probability of winning at 90%. But remember probability is not predictive and doesn’t account for something like election fraud, a Comey letter a week before the election or a tornado. Read this and chill out. Nate’s not being a pussy as much as just following what the model probability based on a Trump win in Pennsylvania.

Read on Twitter

And read this article.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-toast-if-he-loses-pennsylvania/

So here’s a question we can ask with our nifty scenario generator. Is Pennsylvania a must-win for Biden?

No, not quite. It is close to being a must-win for Trump, who has only a 2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College if he loses Pennsylvania. Biden, however, has a bit more margin for error. He’d have a 30 percent chance if he lost Pennsylvania, which isn’t great but is also higher than, say, Trump’s overall chances on Election Day 2016.

Let me ask you who would you rather be now Biden or Trump? And who if you remove the names and just showed a 10 point lead who would you think is in the better position come Election Day? If Trump was ahead nationally or had 90% chance of winning we’d have Trump supporters gloating that it’s over. Tell me how well the polls did in 2018?

Thanks for posting the full quote. WTF Axios?

[Clyde_Style]

Bunker Boy is building a wall around the WH while having a hissy fit over the FBI is investigating the militia caravan. This guy is pathetic

[Papi_swav]

Do you guys want your taxes to go up?

[GONYK]

I don't need the president to be a blatant racist in order to ensure lower taxes. There are people who aren't entirely morally bankrupt and criminally incompetent who can deliver the policies you prefer.

[aq_ua]

Do you guys want your taxes to go up?

If only MMT became more widely embraced concept. Taxes would be another partisan issue that could go away.

[Clyde_Style]

I don't need the president to be a blatant racist in order to ensure lower taxes. There are people who aren't entirely morally bankrupt and criminally incompetent who can deliver the policies you prefer.

Our taxes don't have to go up. We just need the rich to pay the same percentage of taxes we do.

[DOT]

I don't need the president to be a blatant racist in order to ensure lower taxes. There are people who aren't entirely morally bankrupt and criminally incompetent who can deliver the policies you prefer.

What you have to understand is, to the Republican, taxes going up is the absolute worst thing that can happen

Fundamentally, they just do not care about other people. Other people being brutalized by police? They don't care. Gay people not being able to be married? Don't care. People they don't know dying from a preventable pandemic? Don't care. Environment going to sh*t? Why should they care, they'll be dead before the negative effects get really bad

I mean hell, even the Koch brothers' funded study said it'd be cheaper for us to switch to a socialized healthcare system, but the cons don't want it, because they'd rather pay 5,000 a year for insurance than 1,000 a year in extra taxes.

[HarthorneWingo]

Do you guys want your taxes to go up?

Who are you? Mr. fcking James Dolan?

It's not our taxes that are going to up so what do you care? It's about time the rich started paying their fair share again. How about corporations start paying taxes too? How about we trim all that fat off the defense budget? How about we end the subsidies to the fossil fuel companies who have publicly stated - to their credit - that they don't even need the subsidies! Do you realize that in the late 50s, under President/General Dwight D. Eisenhower (Rep.), we had a 90% marginal tax rate on income over $400,000.00? We also reaped the great benefits to our country as a result of that socialist G.I. Bill of 1944 (FDR) which gave our soldiers the opportunity to go to college for free. That resulted in one of the greatest eras of the middle class here. Yeah, so lower taxes on the middle class and tax the shyt out of the corporations and hedge fund managers who get paid millions upon millions but don't contribute anything to society.

The greatest payoffs this country has experienced is when we supported the middle class with benefits and safety nets. Trickle down economics is a lie. Don't you know that?

[HarthorneWingo]

Silver is such a pussy. What happened to Biden having a 90% chance of winning?

P.S. See? You posted a reasonable comment with evidentiary support from a reputable news source. Well done!

Biden’s still has a probability of winning at 90%. But remember probability is not predictive and doesn’t account for something like election fraud, a Comey letter a week before the election or a tornado. Read this and chill out. Nate’s not being a pussy as much as just following what the model probability based on a Trump win in Pennsylvania.

Read on Twitter

And read this article.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-toast-if-he-loses-pennsylvania/

So here’s a question we can ask with our nifty scenario generator. Is Pennsylvania a must-win for Biden?

No, not quite. It is close to being a must-win for Trump, who has only a 2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College if he loses Pennsylvania. Biden, however, has a bit more margin for error. He’d have a 30 percent chance if he lost Pennsylvania, which isn’t great but is also higher than, say, Trump’s overall chances on Election Day 2016.

We should all be careful in giving articles the right connotation when discuss them. Nate Silver is not saying that Biden becomes the underdog and a worse candidate if he loses Pennsylvania. I believe he is talking about he the polls are weighted and interpreted. A loss in Pennsylvania for Biden could point to a systematic error that makes his other swing state polling numbers suspect. So sorry, Wingo, we wouldn't say he's a wimp for not leading with his emotions and instead, discussing polling methodology as it relates to predictive ability.

Now tell me, isn't this more important than who won the Finals?

It's BallSac's fault. He tried to slip one by us.

[HarthorneWingo]

Play the music video in the background on low volume while you watch the interviews Trust me

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[HarthorneWingo]

Watch on YouTube

[HarthorneWingo]

Watch on YouTube

[HarthorneWingo]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[Papi_swav]

Do you guys want your taxes to go up?

Who are you? Mr. fcking James Dolan?

It's not our taxes that are going to up so what do you care? It's about time the rich started paying their fair share again. How about corporations start paying taxes too? How about we trim all that fat off the defense budget? How about we end the subsidies to the fossil fuel companies who have publicly stated - to their credit - that they don't even need the subsidies! Do you realize that in the late 50s, under President/General Dwight D. Eisenhower (Rep.), we had a 90% marginal tax rate on income over $400,000.00? We also reaped the great benefits to our country as a result of that socialist G.I. Bill of 1944 (FDR) which gave our soldiers the opportunity to go to college for free. That resulted in one of the greatest eras of the middle class here. Yeah, so lower taxes on the middle class and tax the shyt out of the corporations and hedge fund managers who get paid millions upon millions but don't contribute anything to society.

The greatest payoffs this country has experienced is when we supported the middle class with benefits and safety nets. Trickle down economics is a lie. Don't you know that?

I agree with you. In a perfect world this will work, but unfortunately the government put laws in place to where the rich can hide their money and avoid some taxes. It's just the way it is. Don't hate the player, hate the game. And taxing ppl over 60% that makes 400k is criminal. I can understand trying to do that to multimillionaires but to ppl making half a mill a year with the way the cost of living is now is robbery. 400k is not rich, you can definitely live well on that but you can't live forever on that and if you're a real New Yorker you would know 400k isn't all that much. This isn't the 1950s where you can buy a house for 15k anymore, especially in NYC houses aren't going less than half a mill and that's in the ghetto.

The top 1% of NYC pays over 40% of NYC tax as a whole, it's a fact. We need that money and alot of those 1%ers have left NYC which is why ppl are saying NYC is a ghost town and may never recover. If You try to go after the rich hard and make them pay a whole lot more, they will just pick up and leave. And if you try chasing them in another state, they will just flee the country.

I really wish they can lower the taxes on the middle class because the middle class is suffering the most out of all of this. Trickle down economics is not a lie, the rich will figure out a way to avoid those taxes like they always do and the middle class will suffer even more because uncle sam will want his one way or the other. And besides, doesn't Biden camp want to raise the middle class taxes by 2.9%? They basically want HALF of the working class income, literally HALF ! And they are going to want more in the future. Highway robbery. Before you know it, the middle class will be the ones taxed 60%.

[Oscirus]

well ladies, lindsey graham is here to tell yall acceptable behavior

Read on Twitter

[Clyde_Style]

well ladies, lindsey graham is here to tell yall acceptable behavior

Read on Twitter

He has become an abomination and has morphed into Strom Thurmond. Praying for Harrison to win