Deni Avdija

[DCZards]

Beautifully said. Character is not really a measurable basketball trait, and neither is hard work because there is no data and no proof that it leads to winning. There are probably many hard-working, live and breathe basketball guys in any draft. And most of them fail. There is no guarantee we even got the highest character/work ethic player in the draft. I'd rather get a player who has measurable skills because hard work cannot make up for talent.

It's also true that talent without hard work rarely succeeds. You can see that in sports as well as in life in general.

Sometimes, especially when it comes to someone as young as Deni, it's extremely difficult to tell just how talented they are or might become. But you might be able to tell early on how hard they are willing to work to bring to fruition what talent they do have.

[dckingsfan]

Extremely fond of you Doc but your list of good defensive players includes one player I'm comfortable crediting with good NBA defense. Multiple are like notably not good defenders specifically in ways that are more problematic at the NBA level.

My point was not in selecting one, but in trading back you get a chance to select a few.

But it is a metagame thing for me. I have been of the mind that the small ball era was due to change. We saw some of that in the bubble championship. And in the continued short fall of Moreyball. My belief has been that in an era of 3fg chucking, the value of defensive rebounding increases. 3pt shots are a lower percentage shot with a high variance. Meaning there are more missed shots, more attempts. They are streaky. This means are more missed possessions and more missed shots available. Consider that there are loose possessions on more than 60% of 3 pt shots on all 3fg attempts). To my way of thinking, the team that loads up on players who rebound at all positions (considering there are long bounces) and who scores well on the interior (at a %50 or greater clip) can control the number of possessions and squeeze out the streakier long ball teams. Not every team is the Warriors. Most are just hucking and hoping for a streak to stay in the game. Teams that rebound then score efficiently from 2pt land can control the number of possessions and the 3fg bombers do not have enough opportunity to catch fire.

I've been banging that monkey for 5 years now. Then we saw the Spurs with Kawhi begin to play that way, then the Bucks under coach Bud started winning every regular season by dominating the rebounding game. Then the Raptors with Kawhi won that way.

So. My point was simply you can win if you rebound, and score on the inside. Even with cheap high energy bigs who bang underneath. Yes you want them to have range to the free throw line, sure, but if opponent bigs can be enticed to huck from trebuchet range outside, you live with it happily and hoover up every bounce they miss. Stay big, play big.

Now personally if I could get Saddiq Bey, plus [2nd round draft pick] and Xavier Tillman, I'd be happy. If I had Bey and Isaiah Washington and [2nd round pick], I'd be happy. I might gamble on Precious next to a reliable energy big, if I felt I had a coaching staff that could focus him (since I was impressed with his ability to learn on the fly to play and defend all court on effort and talent alone when Wiseman tapped out). I might be wrong, but there is at least a strategy on that side of the ball. Show me a coherent defensive strategy in whatever picks we have made in the Tommy era. I know we have an offensive strategy. That side of the ball we do well with, year after year, even when we otherwise suck. But defense? We never select for rebounding.

(I do credit Tommy for draft decisions we made under the Ernie era. He was the director of scouting. His focus was on international scouting. You can see his fingerprint in many of the draft selections we have made).

I like the guys we have. I do. I like the potential of a guy like Bonga. I like the mindset of a guy like Troy. I've got question makes on Rui but he seems like a good hearted hard working guy. I like Deni. I do. He's going to be fun to cheer for. But for all the character we have, as of right now, we suck at defense. They are a bunch of try hard guys who are overmatched. I don't see any effort to help them in the efforts of our front office. I like Tommy, but he stated his priority was to improve our defense. In the draft in particular. He said we need to get bigger and add energy and rebounding etc. Now. Show me how he did that.

Not sure if I agree or disagree. TBJ is a terrific rebounding guard. DA is going to be a good to very good rebounding SF (if that is where he plays). But I see your point on Rui - I don't think he will ever become a defensive rebounding monster - but adequate at PF?

I still think what we are missing is a C that is a rim protector & big time rebounder for this team. But those guys don't grow on trees... which brings us back to your point in a very nice circular manner. Who is out there in the 2021 draft?

[dckingsfan]

Fans here complain just because they want to complain. If someone wants to specifically talk about Advija as a player in the context of being 19 and tell me 1) why it was a bad pick 2) who they would have picked and 3) why this decision will be an absolute disaster going forward I'm all ears.

One way to say it is a bad pick at this time is fit. Was there a rim protecting big that would have slid right into the FC with starter like minutes?

I think many on the board are thinking that way.

[doclinkin]

We are missing a threat on the interior. Rebounding up front. A rangy perimeter defender who can guard 1-3.

[prime1time]

Fans here complain just because they want to complain. If someone wants to specifically talk about Advija as a player in the context of being 19 and tell me 1) why it was a bad pick 2) who they would have picked and 3) why this decision will be an absolute disaster going forward I'm all ears.

One way to say it is a bad pick at this time is fit. Was there a rim protecting big that would have slid right into the FC with starter like minutes?

I think many on the board are thinking that way.

I get what you're saying but I challenge this thinking. Look at Thomas Bryant's numbers in the bubble. He averaged 18.6 ppg, 8.9 rbs 40% + from 3, 2 blks a game and 1.4 steals. Bryant improved from his first season with us to his second season. In addition Okongwu did not fall to us. I can see Haliburton but why reach for a big man?

[prime1time]

Watch on YouTube

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[VanWest82]

Avdija looks like a pretty good bet. It's never a bad idea picking players who are good at basketball. I'm sure there are many wishing Wiz had gone after an athlete with a higher ceiling who could've learned how to play but this feels like a no lose move.

[doclinkin]

If someone wants to specifically talk about Advija as a player in the context of being 19 and tell me 1) why it was a bad pick 2) who they would have picked and 3) why this decision will be an absolute disaster going forward I'm all ears.

The fair point is this. This is not the thread to complain about Tommy and overarching strategy etc. It is the thread to talk about Avdija. I do not think he will be a disaster. I like seeing him grow and improve, even since I first saw clips of him, seeing him swiftly absorb information and work on parts of his game. I think as an environment I wish we had a more disciplined coaching staff. Better defensive tutelage. I do trust our shooting coach and developmental staff and see interesting signs in his recent videos compared to his early form. I like his quick reactions on court which can make up for a lack of footspeed, if he understands what is happening he can get there early. He seems eager to be here and that says a lot. Having good character, what I alluded to, is that we have guys who kept working at it last year even in a losing season, and they enjoyed the team and each others company. The NBA can wear players out, losing especially can be miserable, but having good character guys all around means you eliminate the personal conflict part.

Tommy's version of good character guys actually gives a roster full of nice guys and decent dudes. That may mean no MJ (who frankly, if you hear his teammates, was no choir boy. He may have walked out on the weed smoking, but was out late gambling and drinking and carousing most nights late in his career. Barkley threw guys through plate glass windows. HOFer Rodman should probably have taken a mental health retreat at some points in his depression and acting out. Kobe was married when he was accused of date rape. And hey John Wall parties late with gangsters. You pass up on some real talent if you look for some kinds of character above all else).

But it is easy to cheer for good dudes. I do like a bit of nasty, a bit of aggression, even willingness to not be liked. Deni does have a bit of swagger, confidence, and competitive arrogance in how he plays. I hope he only increases in that, backed up by success. I'm excited to see him play and grow. In the draft we rarely pick the guys I like. (Trevor Booker I think was the last one outside of the lottery). So I'm used to it. I am reserving the right to grow skeptical on Tommy is all. If Deni proves to be a tough and nasty defender, I'm all for it. It would help if he had some of that around him is all. If we are talking character and defense and grit and hard work: I really wanted Xavier Tilllman in our locker room. The guys I wanted most went a few picks ahead of where we stuck and stayed. Tommy was innovative in the trade market, I set the bar high for him in the draft as well. Maybe too high, okay. But yeah, I will stand by it: I think he has been part of a pattern I dislike about Wizards drafts past. Trying to be too fancy with a euroguy instead of picking high floor low ceiling guys from notable NCAA programs.

But on Deni in particular, yes it is clear he loves the game and is swiftly improving, and has some good raw tools and the right attitude and mental aptitude. So. Deni and me, we cool. It's Tommy I'm watching more carefully right now is all.

[doclinkin]

The part about picking good character goes a long way in this organization. Because we are not Miami. No Pat Riley master motivator. No coach Spo tactical shogun. No conditioning program. We Ted our way along in a roly poly Leonsis fashion that is happy to Grunfeld it up year after year. So. We better pick a guy who like Wall and Beal will hire their own development guy, and improve in the offseasons. If we had picked a Achiuwa we probably woulda ruined him. He needs guidance and direction. I don't get that vibe from Deni. He's going to go to work.

[DCZards]

Count me among those who think rebounding, defense and rim protection are the Zards biggest needs, which is something I've said repeatedly over the past couple of years. That’s why I wanted to draft Okongwu, Okoro or Achiuwa

Obviously, the first two weren’t available at 9. And it looks like that instead of drafting Achiuwa (or J. Smith from Maryland), Tommy chose to go with the BPA over fit or need.

Drafting what was probably the consensus BPA might not be the best approach given the team's other glaring needs...but it’s an approach that you can make a case for.

Before deciding that Tommy has failed to improve the Zards defense and rebounding as he promised, let’s wait and see what happens in free agency.

[Shoe]

Read on Twitter

[WizarDynasty]

Read on Twitter

Look we know who Deni has to stop. The eastern conference normally as the same top tier playoff teams and we know who he will match up against. 8 team in the playoffs and its usually 4 teams that are dominant. We know wo Deni is going to be guarding by looking at the top 4 playoff teams in the last 3 years in the eastern conference. Ho wwould Deni have matched up against the small forward, could he have swtich on p/f and guard from these top 4 eatern conference teams and not got destroyed?

who would he have given us an advantage offensively against from those 4 top teams. If i had a time machine, i woudl go back to when he was child and showed him videos of Paul Pierce and then things woudl be ok.

[Ed Wood]

I have been of the mind that the small ball era was due to change. We saw some of that in the bubble championship.

Did we? The finals featured one team in the top ten in 3P attempts (Miami, tied for 9th) and one in the bottom 10 (LA came in at 20th). One team was above average in team height (Miami actually) while the Lakers had the 8th shortest in aggregate (which might misrepresent functional height on the floor with LeBron and AD centerstage). In any event, no clear repudiation here.

...My belief has been that in an era of 3fg chucking, the value of defensive rebounding increases.

Both finals teams were in the top ten in total rebounding % and defensive rebounding %. Both measures do correlate with team success on the year based on an eyeball test. That's obviously not a radical notion and the Wizards were certainly a bottom dweller by rebounding metrics.

3pt shots are a lower percentage shot with a high variance. Meaning there are more missed shots, more attempts. They are streaky. This means are more missed possessions and more missed shots available.

Not particularly measurably true (the more attempts thing is true but as a product of changes in league average pace). Three point attempts have increased in each of the last nine seasons, pace in each of the last seven. Prior to this year, however, the league average FG% had improved in each of the last four years (in 2019 down 1% from 2018). Pace is driving rebounding numbers - the league was, in general, significantly faster the last two years.

...To my way of thinking, the team that loads up on players who rebound at all positions (considering there are long bounces) and who scores well on the interior (at a %50 or greater clip)...

Almost every team in the league shot better than 50% on twos in 2019 (Washington included, if barely). Teams that converted twos well did tend to be successful, but that's hardly surprising - that's part of being a strong offensive team. Milwaukee was very good at converting twos (league best in fact - 56.3%). So was Houston, actually - third in the league at 55.3%. We can come back to this.

can control the number of possessions and squeeze out the streakier long ball teams.

"Control" doesn't mean limit per se, but in the context of a paean to rebounding and interior scoring I'll assume it is intended to here. Milwaukee played at the highest pace in the league last year, Houston is a less surprising second. The Lakers, second in 2P%, were also above average in pace, albeit barely at 12th in the league. Dallas is the exemplar of the grind-it-out model - 18th in pace and 4th in 2P%. If these teams do exert control over pace, they're often flooring it.

...and the 3fg bombers do not have enough opportunity to catch fire.

Nothing very weighty to break in with here but wouldn't this make results more random for both teams rather than inherently better for one paradigm?

...then the Bucks under coach Bud started winning every regular season by dominating the rebounding game...

The Bucks do indeed rebound well (see above). The thing is, they also shoot a lot of threes (38.7 a game, 4th most in the league - note that they took more than last year but still fell in the relative league rankings from 2nd most in 2018). Everyone on the roster who played at least 20 mpg attempted at least three per game. Also they were an elite defensive team. The Bucks won a lot because they were generally better than their opponents across a variety of facets of the game.

Anyway, I think the thesis that's being supported here is that teams that are good at the core facets of the game win more. The Wizards are not and have not, and I suppose, therefore, that whatever the operating norms of the team have been merit skepticism. I agree that some of the players you regret missing out on (Tillman) would have been valuable assets. I don't agree that paradigmatically Advija is out of sorts with working towards an effective end product.

[verbal8]

He kind of just reminds me of a 6’9 Satoransky. I don’t understand how this fits with Wagner, Bryant, Hachimura, and Bertens, but who cares.

A 6'9 Satoransky sounds like a good thing. I don't think Wagner and Bertens are major pieces long term. Hachimura and Avdija playing together at the forwards seems reasonable. Defining 3 vs 4, doesn't seem to matter much in today's NBA.

[Shoe]

Read on Twitter

Look we know who Deni has to stop. The eastern conference normally as the same top tier playoff teams and we know who he will match up against. 8 team in the playoffs and its usually 4 teams that are dominant. We know wo Deni is going to be guarding by looking at the top 4 playoff teams in the last 3 years in the eastern conference. Ho wwould Deni have matched up against the small forward, could he have swtich on p/f and guard from these top 4 eatern conference teams and not got destroyed?

who would he have given us an advantage offensively against from those 4 top teams. If i had a time machine, i woudl go back to when he was child and showed him videos of Paul Pierce and then things woudl be ok.

Here's a breakdown from NBA Stats

Defensive Analysis
Possessing good size and solid quickness to go along with a competitive streak that translates in a lot of little ways, Avdija is a fairly mature defender. Allowing 0.58 points per one-on-one possession [82nd percentile], his improved frame has helped him hold ground in the post while he displays some versatility guarding on the perimeter, even if he is still learning how to use his physicality to his advantage consistently.

An active rebounder who makes a clear effort to help protect the rim using verticality, Avdija had to grow up in a hurry on the defensive end to earn minutes in Maccabi and it shows in his diligence on that end.

[WizarDynasty]

He kind of just reminds me of a 6’9 Satoransky. I don’t understand how this fits with Wagner, Bryant, Hachimura, and Bertens, but who cares.

A 6'9 Satoransky sounds like a good thing. I don't think Wagner and Bertens are major pieces long term. Hachimura and Avdija playing together at the forwards seems reasonable. Defining 3 vs 4, doesn't seem to matter much in today's NBA.

He is not really 6'9, his standing reach is 8'6. Which that is his true height. He has the same exact standing reach as John Wall.
Character can not make up for lack of length.

[KRS-ONE]

Watch on YouTube

[Ruzious]

If someone wants to specifically talk about Advija as a player in the context of being 19 and tell me 1) why it was a bad pick 2) who they would have picked and 3) why this decision will be an absolute disaster going forward I'm all ears.

The fair point is this. This is not the thread to complain about Tommy and overarching strategy etc. It is the thread to talk about Avdija. I do not think he will be a disaster. I like seeing him grow and improve, even since I first saw clips of him, seeing him swiftly absorb information and work on parts of his game. I think as an environment I wish we had a more disciplined coaching staff. Better defensive tutelage. I do trust our shooting coach and developmental staff and see interesting signs in his recent videos compared to his early form. I like his quick reactions on court which can make up for a lack of footspeed, if he understands what is happening he can get there early. He seems eager to be here and that says a lot. Having good character, what I alluded to, is that we have guys who kept working at it last year even in a losing season, and they enjoyed the team and each others company. The NBA can wear players out, losing especially can be miserable, but having good character guys all around means you eliminate the personal conflict part.

Tommy's version of good character guys actually gives a roster full of nice guys and decent dudes. That may mean no MJ (who frankly, if you hear his teammates, was no choir boy. He may have walked out on the weed smoking, but was out late gambling and drinking and carousing most nights late in his career. Barkley threw guys through plate glass windows. HOFer Rodman should probably have taken a mental health retreat at some points in his depression and acting out. Kobe was married when he was accused of date rape. And hey John Wall parties late with gangsters. You pass up on some real talent if you look for some kinds of character above all else).

But it is easy to cheer for good dudes. I do like a bit of nasty, a bit of aggression, even willingness to not be liked. Deni does have a bit of swagger, confidence, and competitive arrogance in how he plays. I hope he only increases in that, backed up by success. I'm excited to see him play and grow. In the draft we rarely pick the guys I like. (Trevor Booker I think was the last one outside of the lottery). So I'm used to it. I am reserving the right to grow skeptical on Tommy is all. If Deni proves to be a tough and nasty defender, I'm all for it. It would help if he had some of that around him is all. If we are talking character and defense and grit and hard work: I really wanted Xavier Tilllman in our locker room. The guys I wanted most went a few picks ahead of where we stuck and stayed. Tommy was innovative in the trade market, I set the bar high for him in the draft as well. Maybe too high, okay. But yeah, I will stand by it: I think he has been part of a pattern I dislike about Wizards drafts past. Trying to be too fancy with a euroguy instead of picking high floor low ceiling guys from notable NCAA programs.

But on Deni in particular, yes it is clear he loves the game and is swiftly improving, and has some good raw tools and the right attitude and mental aptitude. So. Deni and me, we cool. It's Tommy I'm watching more carefully right now is all.

Tommy would never have picked Tyler Herro because of his sneer. In fact, he passed on him last year. But it's really the love of the game and the competitive killer instinct that makes Herro play a step above his talent level. Deni might not have the sneer, but I sense he has that same love of the game and killer mindset that will set him apart from the boyscouts that Tommy's chosen.

[Ruzious]

He kind of just reminds me of a 6’9 Satoransky. I don’t understand how this fits with Wagner, Bryant, Hachimura, and Bertens, but who cares.

A 6'9 Satoransky sounds like a good thing. I don't think Wagner and Bertens are major pieces long term. Hachimura and Avdija playing together at the forwards seems reasonable. Defining 3 vs 4, doesn't seem to matter much in today's NBA.

He is not really 6'9, his standing reach is 8'6. Which that is his true height. He has the same exact standing reach as John Wall.
Character can not make up for lack of length.

An ESPN article said his standing reach is 8'10.

[dckingsfan]

Fans here complain just because they want to complain. If someone wants to specifically talk about Advija as a player in the context of being 19 and tell me 1) why it was a bad pick 2) who they would have picked and 3) why this decision will be an absolute disaster going forward I'm all ears.

One way to say it is a bad pick at this time is fit. Was there a rim protecting big that would have slid right into the FC with starter like minutes?

I think many on the board are thinking that way.

I get what you're saying but I challenge this thinking. Look at Thomas Bryant's numbers in the bubble. He averaged 18.6 ppg, 8.9 rbs 40% + from 3, 2 blks a game and 1.4 steals. Bryant improved from his first season with us to his second season. In addition Okongwu did not fall to us. I can see Haliburton but why reach for a big man?

To me, Bryant's numbers are a small samples size in the bubble. But... that doesn't mean I don't think he is solid. I don't want to get rid of Bryant, rather add a rim protector in ADDITION to Bryant. Or someone that you think is going to be a really gifted wing defender.

And yeah, don't reach. Trade down or trade the pick to get the player(s) you want. Now, if DA was the player you wanted - well then, fine. It's kind of like a player we didn't expect to drop, dropped and we took him. I just don't know if we followed our plan.