John Collins Edited: (Hawks Seek Lottery Pick For Collins)

Post #221 » by **Jamaaliver** » Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:11 pm

John Hollinger wrote:Contract extensions: What Bam, Tatum and the rest of the 2017 draft class are worth

Group 3: Near max, but we need to talk

John Collins, Atlanta — $25,644,959

Collins is young, athletic and offensively awesome, but he’s not quite a max guy. You’ll occasionally hear scuttlebutt that the Hawks aren’t totally sold on him, and if he’s looking for a max extension, I think Atlanta is certainly better off waiting. The Hawks still can match any offer a year from now, or go out to a fifth year if he plays so well that he becomes max-worthy.

On the other hand, a four-year, no-options deal for anything at $110 million or less starts looking pretty nice from the Hawks’ perspective.

[O]ne angle to consider: What if they gave Collins a five-year max, but had raises that declined by 8 percent? His value relative to the cap would keep going up just as the rest of the Hawks’ sheet was filling up with other deals (like Young’s), and the only negative is the Year 1 overpay when they have too much room anyway. A five-year deal set up that way would be worth $118 million.

A slightly less extreme version of the same deal would start at the max but have no raises over the five years, for a value of $140 million. The devil is in the details, but a construction like this is one way to give Collins the “max” while still giving the Hawks a chance to win the back end of the contract.

The Athletic

Radioblacktive1 · Post #222 » by **Radioblacktive1** » Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:32 pm

I like that for Collins. I think the Collins camp is more reasonable than they’re being made out to be. One of the rules of negotiation is to start high and then settle for less, can’t start higher than asking for a max. Fully expect JC to be a happy Hawk in the near future.

Post #223 » by **Jamaaliver** » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:35 am

Chris Kirchner wrote:What Danilo Gallinari’s agreement means for the Hawks

Gallinari is an interesting fit on this roster, especially for that price. He is strictly a power forward at this stage of his career, and obviously, the Hawks have a starting-caliber power forward on the roster in John Collins.

But potentially paying two power forwards $20 million-plus per season doesn’t make much sense from a roster construction standpoint, especially when the Hawks are already paying Clint Capela and drafted another big man in Onyeka Okongwu on Wednesday. They also have De’Andre Hunter, who could get minutes at the four.

...what this signing might come down to is Gallinari is a cheaper commitment at the four than Collins will be. Collins might bring back an intriguing trade package that could be hard to pass up. If Collins is truly a part of the team’s plans, this agreement is curious at best because the fit doesn’t make much sense right now.

The Athletic

Spud2nique · Post #224 » by **Spud2nique** » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:37 am

Jamaaliver wrote:
Chris Kirchner wrote:What Danilo Gallinari’s agreement means for the Hawks

Gallinari is an interesting fit on this roster, especially for that price. He is strictly a power forward at this stage of his career, and obviously, the Hawks have a starting-caliber power forward on the roster in John Collins.

But potentially paying two power forwards $20 million-plus per season doesn’t make much sense from a roster construction standpoint, especially when the Hawks are already paying Clint Capela and drafted another big man in Onyeka Okongwu on Wednesday. They also have De’Andre Hunter, who could get minutes at the four.

...what this signing might come down to is Gallinari is a cheaper commitment at the four than Collins will be. Collins might bring back an intriguing trade package that could be hard to pass up. If Collins is truly a part of the team’s plans, this agreement is curious at best because the fit doesn’t make much sense right now.
The Athletic

Beal?

Post #225 » by **HMFFL** » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:42 am

Jamaaliver wrote:
Chris Kirchner wrote:What Danilo Gallinari’s agreement means for the Hawks

Gallinari is an interesting fit on this roster, especially for that price. He is strictly a power forward at this stage of his career, and obviously, the Hawks have a starting-caliber power forward on the roster in John Collins.

But potentially paying two power forwards $20 million-plus per season doesn’t make much sense from a roster construction standpoint, especially when the Hawks are already paying Clint Capela and drafted another big man in Onyeka Okongwu on Wednesday. They also have De’Andre Hunter, who could get minutes at the four.

...what this signing might come down to is Gallinari is a cheaper commitment at the four than Collins will be. Collins might bring back an intriguing trade package that could be hard to pass up. If Collins is truly a part of the team’s plans, this agreement is curious at best because the fit doesn’t make much sense right now.
The Athletic

I expect us to pursue Giannis Antetokounmpo. We have the proven talent and young talented Hawks to make some magic happen.

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Post #226 » by **Jamaaliver** » Sat Nov 21, 2020 5:14 am

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Ball4life32 · Post #227 » by **Ball4life32** » Sat Nov 21, 2020 5:35 am

Hope she’s right.

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Spud2nique · Post #228 » by **Spud2nique** » Sat Nov 21, 2020 5:46 am

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?s=20

Post #229 » by **Jamaaliver** » Sat Nov 21, 2020 5:53 am

It does feel like something's brewing...

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tbhawksfan1 · Post #230 » by **tbhawksfan1** » Sat Nov 21, 2020 11:30 am

I'll say that there is a 99.9% chance that JC is signed to a bit less than max contract by Hawks. Gallo is a complement, not a replacement

saloonyk8 · Post #231 » by **saloonyk8** » Sat Nov 21, 2020 12:34 pm

tbhawksfan1 wrote:I'll say that there is a 99.9% chance that JC is signed to a bit less than max contract by Hawks. Gallo is a complement, not a replacement

$20 M to backup PF 32 years old. You think Collins gonna sign 20 over 4, no way

D21 · Post #232 » by **D21** » Sat Nov 21, 2020 1:03 pm

It's funny to see how the media were all "ATL need some good veteran to reach the playoffs" and are now acting like "ohhh, they gave 20M to a veteran... it means something to the future of Collins"

First, I believe that Schlenk viewed the current roster (without Gallo) as a playoffs roster for all the reasons we know (John missed 25 games, Capela came in but didn't play, Okongwu added, McMillan added), and not as a promising but bad team needing veteran to reach the playoffs like almost the media said.

If that's the case, all the other move like adding Gallo should be viewed as building a team for more than a 1st round exit, so even if I find the Gallo's deal a bit high, it costs something to build a very good team, and if for example Gallo was getting 18M by another team, we had to give a bit more.

Second, starting the season with more pieces, like what a title contender has, is a better chance on seeing the exact value of any player in the team.
When you have a bad team with one young guy putting numbers, it's always like he's already a future Max player, even if his team is losing, and it leads to bad contracts and future for a lot of teams.
ATL was not in this extreme case, but maybe having a better rotation, more like the one of a championship team, will show more exactly the impact of our young guys like John, and help to set their real value.

Let's play them, and if John continues to show big games, and works well with Capela, his future offer will be easier to set.
If for any reason, sharing the rotation with Capela and Gallo shows that John is not bringing more than these two guys, than we will know that he doesn't deserve a Max or near Max offer.
Anything higher than Sabonis' contract has to be really deserved IMO

graymule · Post #233 » by **graymule** » Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:37 pm

D21: I agree 100%. Hawks needed a veteran. Hawks sign a veteran. Hawk fans panic! Collins gone! Bull feathers.

:noway:

tbhawksfan1 · Post #234 » by **tbhawksfan1** » Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:49 pm

saloonyk8 wrote:
tbhawksfan1 wrote:I'll say that there is a 99.9% chance that JC is signed to a bit less than max contract by Hawks. Gallo is a complement, not a replacement

$20 M to backup PF 32 years old. You think Collins gonna sign 20 over 4, no way

I think I'm right, you wrong. Our new owner and GM have said they are here to win. JC is a key part of this team. Gallo will be here for a couple of years. We have the money for both. It doesn't matter where the money is alocated on this young team. By the time we need the money elsewhere Gallo will be gono

Post #235 » by **Jamaaliver** » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:59 pm

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atlantabbq99 · Post #236 » by **atlantabbq99** » Sun Nov 22, 2020 7:23 am

What's Collin's ceiling?

Has Collin already reached his ceiling or can he take another leap and become an elite all star forward in 2021?

Can Collin become the 2nd best PF in the east behind Giannis or will he stay as just a very good, 20ppg, non all star player, just like Gallo for the rest of his career?

Radioblacktive1 · Post #237 » by **Radioblacktive1** » Sun Nov 22, 2020 9:44 am

I think it depends on if Collins can ever learn to consistently and reliably create shots for himself. I think that’s the biggest question mark at this point because the defense is trending upward. Currently his offense is just taking what the defense gives him and using his athleticism, but I want him to know how to make something happen in any situation. I want him to know what to do when his defender is bigger and stronger than him or somehow more athletic. Defenses will soon start closing out on him at the three point line, can he confidently attack those closeouts? The 20/10 stat line is great but I’m not positive he can get that all on his own yet.

If he works on these skills and stays healthy, I think his ceiling is somewhere close to an injury-free version of current Blake Griffin.

D21 · Post #238 » by **D21** » Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:37 pm

Something I found on 82games.com regarding John (I think they have a different PER than ESPN as it's always higher, almost ESPN one but adjusted on 48min) :
1st season : Own PER = 21.5 Direct opponent PER : 17.6
2nd season : Own PER = 26.8 Direct opponent PER : 20.6
1rd season : Own PER = 30.7 Direct opponent PER : 24.6

While it goes from +3.9 in first season to +6.2 the second season with own improving more than opponent, the third season has the same difference, but own and opponent production are higher.

It looks like he produced more, but in the same time, he allowed his opponents to produce more too.
And the On/Off court difference was +7.6pts on 100 poss. for ATL, but only +3.7pts last season

OK, he missed 25 games last season and his impact could have been higher without that, but even it would not have been better than his second season.
He improves on his individual production, but it didn't translate to an team improvement.

That's the kind of thing that let me thinks that I would agree on an extension now if it's in the Sabonis contract range, but not more for the moment. I would tell him, and let him know that if the team is more impacted by his game, he will get a better offer later.
Especially now that we start to have a roster build a bit more like a real contender, with good bench players.

I then checked RPM on ESPN among PF are found that : is in the range of Sabonis (with more offense and less defense),
and except that Giannis is on another galaxy in this spot, Gallo was higher than I thought and Wood was great (especially on defense) :

Spud2nique · Post #239 » by **Spud2nique** » Sun Nov 22, 2020 7:28 pm

Don’t break up Stockton to Malone and GP to Kemp in Trae and JC. Having said that, Okongwu takes no prisoners. I think they should both be featured soon in a lineup with Trae and Cam. Those are our 4 best soon if not now.

saloonyk8 · Post #240 » by **saloonyk8** » Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:02 am

If Collins is balling out of control it won't matter how much Gallo is making.

This conversation wouldn't exist if Gallo was paid $15 so I don't think $5M forces you to trade JC. It just gives you flexibility. If JC can't earn minutes he's not a max player either.

I'm expecting Collins to come out and play great this season.