RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 (Chris Paul)

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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 

Post#41 » by DQuinn1575 » Sun Nov 29, 2020 2:38 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
eminence wrote:On Pettit - Don't really agree with the statement that he was ever the best player (maybe in some sort of net fashion, though there I'd probably side with Schayes) in the league between Mikan and Russell. His rookie year I don't really see the claim at all, '56 it seems fairly weak compared to Arizin's, '57 is probably Pettit's best shot at the crown in Russell's rookie year.

Pettit's level of respect around the league seems to me to have inflated his historical claim to goodness when looking at his play. I really really don't see the separation from Schayes/Arizin on a prime level.


I'll co-sign some on this.

I think when you really break down the years between Mikan's reign and Russell's, the only guy who has a clear cut championship belt moment is Paul Arizin, and it's really just for a moment.

How do we come to think Pettit reigned? I think it's the combination of the '55-56 MVP and his '57-58 championship. It paints a certain picture that breaks down when you look at it. Arizin was clearly the best player of '55-56 from an all-season perspective, and the Hawks don't get that chip if Russell's not hurt.

I have always rated Pettit ahead of Arizin in general because I'm impressed by how he adapted to '60s play and the extended prime this gave him, but peak vs peak, really not sure I'd side with Pettit over Arizin.

And on Schayes, I'm still not seeing a prime vs prime comparison with him and Arizin. Arizin probably had the best offensive season of the entire decade carrying his offensively dominant team to a title, Schayes was a less dominant offensive force at peak who peaked after his team won their championship with defense for which he was not as praised as some of his teammates.

As said, no gripe if you have Schayes > Arizin by overall career, but I'm not seeing what's pointing us to an actual debate best vs best.


I kind of see the title of best player has vacant between Mikan and Russell - Neil Johnston might also have a claim with Arizin,Pettit Schayes, I have Pettit highest, but not sure if he was best long enough for me to give him the title.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 

Post#42 » by DQuinn1575 » Sun Nov 29, 2020 2:44 am

Spoiler:
colts18 wrote:
Owly wrote:
eminence wrote:Do you legit think Benoit/Corbin were better than Jeff Malone/Thurl Bailey or is that some stat talking?

Corbin was better than Bailey by the time of the trade. He was younger, better production for the past 3 years (mentally aggregating the B-Ref box-y composites), better intangibles (Corbin considered elite here, per Rick Barry and Jordan Cohn) and better on D (Bailey slipping).

colts18 wrote:Why did the Jazz not win a title? ...

Some thoughts on the post in general.

Utah were a bit unlucky with Humphries collapsing exactly after they acquired him, it looked like they were getting ... say a league average starter (maybe better, if he shook of the effects of a neck injury nagging him the prior year) as their 3rd guard. Also Murdock is overrated by the boxscores (super aggressive gambleer on D, offensive point instincts questioned too) and unlikely to find a role due to being exclusively a 1 given his size (Humphries - a combo guard - fit better). It didn't work out, which is what matters here, but even if you think they gave up too much (though Humphries would - reasonably enough I think - have been regarded as a sure thing in his role, the pieces the other way not so much), it's understandable. The "three firsts" angle is mean, part of the reason for the bad picks is they're picking low because Stockton and Malone are good: it's a 21st, a 21st and a 23rd (in a 27 team league).

Did the Jazz make any trades that would help out their squad? None until the Hornacek trade.

Yes. See Corbin above. I think given what was given up for him the Jeff Malone deal is perhaps undersold here, based on the above statement. I would tend to agree with the net sentiment that the front office did a bad job and the "didn't win a title so ..." angle is missing this context.

The VORP table isn't necessarily calibrated to my tastes (even if I was higher on BPM). If you were high minutes on a good team, given the low bar to be positive in VORP if you can get in the vicinity of 3000 minutes you don't have to be that good to get to 2 VORP (Willie Anderson, young Sean Elliott, Avery Johnson) and so it's as much about do you have a stable (high-end [in minutes - not talent] heavy) rotation. I didn't love the inclusion of single players (Robinson and Duncan) or at least they should have been separate imo, there's just more stats to consume (and a greater share of team-based credit available in a way that might junk up the comparison. This maybe be a result of recycling material from an old post and a different context.


Owly,

Great post. Your views on Corbin vs Bailey align with mine. I don't see Bailey as anything special. He was a scorer who was not particularly efficient (above average TS% in 3 out of 13 seasons), wasn't a passer (never above 2.0 APG), and he was a 6' 11 player who sucked at rebounding (Career high Rebounds is 6.6 Per Game). He has 1 career season above 0 BPM (+0.2). His career high in PER is just 16.3. I do think he was solid in the 1988 and 1989 seasons (20 PPG on 55 TS%). From 1990-1992, he had a clear dropoff (13 PPG on 51 TS%). He was fine in the 1988 and 1990 playoffs, but was straight up garbage in the 1989 and 1991 playoffs. I like Corbin's fit better with the Jazz. Even when he left the Jazz, he was a starter on the 1997 Hawks team that had one of the most productive starting lineups since 1997.


As far as VORP, I do see your point about role players racking up VORP by playing high minutes. The Jazz players were still not good in per possession stats either. Here are the Jazz players with above average BPM's from 1988-1994 (Min. 1000 MP):

93 Corbin +0.6
89 Eaton +0.6
92 Corbin +0.4
90 Eaton +0.4
88 Bailey +0.2
88 Edwards +0.0

# of players with a BPM worse than -2.0: 20

The best mark in those 7 years was just a +0.6 BPM. They never once had 2 players with a BPM over 0 from 1988-1994. None of the role players on those Jazz teams did anything worthy of note either before Stockton/Malone or after leaving the Jazz. They simply weren't good players.

Compare that to 1995-1999 (5 seasons):
96 Hornacek +4.4
97 Hornacek +3.9
95 Hornacek +3.8
98 Hornacek +3.7
99 Hornacek +3.4
97 Russell +1.9
99 Russell +1.5
96 Morris +0.9
99 Ostertag +0.8
98 Russell +0.8
98 Anderson +0.7
98 Keefe +0.6

# of players with a BPM worse than -2.0: 9

That's 12 players in 5 seasons (2.4 per season). 11 different seasons in those 5 years better than the best 88-94 season. Is it any wonder why the Jazz were significantly more successful from 95-99 than they were from 88-94? The Jazz had actual solid role players during those years. They even had bench players who could contribute which didn't happen in 1988-1994 when they would go 6 or 7 deep come playoff time.


Lots of good stuff about the woes of Utah in getting second level support other than Hornacek - I guess my problem with Stockton is that he never stepped it up on scoring - his line looks incredibly consistent, he wasnt an Isiah, Magic, Frazier, Chris Paul who tried to score more when his team needed it. He got a team to be so good, but didnt quite have enough to put them over the top.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 

Post#43 » by DQuinn1575 » Sun Nov 29, 2020 2:51 am

1. Chris Paul - defense, ball-handling, clutch scoring - checks all the boxes I have,

2. Harden - excellent scorer, passer, improved defense in last few years,

3, Curry - A lot less games than Paul and less than Harden. I'm giving longevity more weight than I have in the past, and that hurts Curry against the two above.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 

Post#44 » by colts18 » Sun Nov 29, 2020 3:15 am

DQuinn1575 wrote:
colts18 wrote:


Recap:
-The Jazz lost to 10 opponents who averaged 59 wins and a 6.66 SRS (better than the 2020 Lakers).
-If the Jazz beat their opponent during the 8 years they lost before the finals, they would have face an average 2 more teams each year with an average record of 60-22, 6.43 SRS (same SRS as the 2019 Warriors).

How do you expect them to beat teams as good as the championship LeBron Lakers, then beat a team as good as the 2019 Warriors in the WCF, then beat another team as good as the KD/Curry Warriors in the finals? That's a near impossible task.


They never beat the best or second best team in the league. Really hard to win the title if you don't beat on of the top two teams in the league.


I'd argue that the 98 Lakers were the 2nd best team in the league. Anyways, it's not like the Jazz didn't beat some really good teams. They 5 wins vs 56+ win teams. The Warriors had just 2 wins against those teams during that span and had 2 losses also. It's not like the Warriors were beating great teams outside of the 2018 Rockets. They played 3 great teams and beat 1 (Rockets) and lost to 2 of them (Cavs and Raptors).
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 

Post#45 » by eminence » Sun Nov 29, 2020 3:36 am

colts18 wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:
colts18 wrote:


Recap:
-The Jazz lost to 10 opponents who averaged 59 wins and a 6.66 SRS (better than the 2020 Lakers).
-If the Jazz beat their opponent during the 8 years they lost before the finals, they would have face an average 2 more teams each year with an average record of 60-22, 6.43 SRS (same SRS as the 2019 Warriors).

How do you expect them to beat teams as good as the championship LeBron Lakers, then beat a team as good as the 2019 Warriors in the WCF, then beat another team as good as the KD/Curry Warriors in the finals? That's a near impossible task.


They never beat the best or second best team in the league. Really hard to win the title if you don't beat on of the top two teams in the league.


I'd argue that the 98 Lakers were the 2nd best team in the league. Anyways, it's not like the Jazz didn't beat some really good teams. They 5 wins vs 56+ win teams. The Warriors had just 2 wins against those teams during that span and had 2 losses also. It's not like the Warriors were beating great teams outside of the 2018 Rockets. They played 3 great teams and beat 1 (Rockets) and lost to 2 of them (Cavs and Raptors).


Poor '16 Thunder, missed out on greatness by that 1 RS win.

But seriously, it feels like you're losing objectivity here.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 

Post#46 » by Dr Positivity » Sun Nov 29, 2020 4:56 am

1. Bob Pettit
2. Stephen Curry
3. Chris Paul

I'm still voting for players who peaked at MVP level rather than the Stockton and Pippens yet. I think Curry is the best player of these three but he has less longevity. Paul would have the best resume if not for weakest intangibles. Pettit's case is great all around and he could have gotten in aroung the same range as Erving in my opinion.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 

Post#47 » by No-more-rings » Sun Nov 29, 2020 5:03 am

So before saying anything else i can see you sort of seem to be basing this on what Harden is likely to do rather than what he's done so far, by bringing up career totals and such.

Magic Is Magic wrote:
I'm not going to say they aren't far off at this point because they aren't--they're close no doubt. Unless Harden has a career ending injury he will pass Wade in every regular season totals stat except blocks (points, rebounds, assists, steals). He will also pass Wade in every per-game regular season stat as well (not that I like per game as much due to giving advantages to when people leave the league) but nonetheless he will have better stats than Wade in fewer season due to Wade's injuries.

This makes my point.

Magic Is Magic wrote:Harden also has better playoff per-game stats at the moment and isn't far behind in total stats in the playoffs.


He doesn't really have better playoff stats at all looking at primes. Wade's career numbers are drug down by his past prime seasons so i don't think this is the way to go about it at all.

Wade(05-12): 97 games 26.2/5.8/5.3 3.7 tov 56.5 ts% 24.9 PER 7.4 BPM

Harden:13-20) 85 games 28.4/5.7/7.1 4.4 tov 57.8 ts% 24.0 PER 7.6 BPM

Statilstically that seems damn near even, considering Wade has a pretty good advantage on defense i think he comes out ahead.


Magic Is Magic wrote:Harden has the MVP and Wade the FMVP (which I'd argue MVP is technically harder to win, ask Cedric Maxwell and Andre Iguodola)



Wade could've won mvp if he didn't have crap supporting casts in 09 and 10, and if he wasn't competing with some of Lebron's best regular seasons.

Magic Is Magic wrote:but close either way. I also wish Wade won at least 1 MVP (the hardest award to win in the NBA) or had better longevity, or at least had more Finals appearances without LeBron's help. Wade without Lebron = 1 Finals appearance and the controversial D-Whistle chip.


The "controversial D-whistle chip is sort of a nonsense argument that doesn't really belong in high level discussions like this. Wade was on fire the whole playoffs destroying some of the best defenses in the league(4th ranked nets, 5th rank pistons), controversial officiating or not doesn't discredit Wade's dominance.

Magic Is Magic wrote:I really like Harden's 6x All-NBA 1st teams to Wade's 2x, that's one of the biggest reasons.


This doesn't mean anything really. At the very least he was comparable to Nash and Kobe in the 2006 regular season, and clearly better than Kobe in 2011. He was robbed of fist team in 2011.

Magic Is Magic wrote:Harden also has the incredible ability to lead the league in scoring 3x and also won an Assist title (very rare and elite company to win both scoring and assist title in a career, I believe this has only done by maybe 8 players ever?)


Harden usually hasn't been able to keep that scoring up in the postseason so i don't know why you put so much stock into it.

I do think Harden may have a bit more longevity but i don't buy that he's as good as Wade was when he was healthy and relevant.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 

Post#48 » by Magic Is Magic » Sun Nov 29, 2020 5:39 am

No-more-rings wrote:So before saying anything else i can see you sort of seem to be basing this on what Harden is likely to do rather than what he's done so far, by bringing up career totals and such.

Magic Is Magic wrote:
I'm not going to say they aren't far off at this point because they aren't--they're close no doubt. Unless Harden has a career ending injury he will pass Wade in every regular season totals stat except blocks (points, rebounds, assists, steals). He will also pass Wade in every per-game regular season stat as well (not that I like per game as much due to giving advantages to when people leave the league) but nonetheless he will have better stats than Wade in fewer season due to Wade's injuries.

This makes my point.

Magic Is Magic wrote:Harden also has better playoff per-game stats at the moment and isn't far behind in total stats in the playoffs.


He doesn't really have better playoff stats at all looking at primes. Wade's career numbers are drug down by his past prime seasons so i don't think this is the way to go about it at all.

Wade(05-12): 97 games 26.2/5.8/5.3 3.7 tov 56.5 ts% 24.9 PER 7.4 BPM

Harden:13-20) 85 games 28.4/5.7/7.1 4.4 tov 57.8 ts% 24.0 PER 7.6 BPM

Statilstically that seems damn near even, considering Wade has a pretty good advantage on defense i think he comes out ahead.


Magic Is Magic wrote:Harden has the MVP and Wade the FMVP (which I'd argue MVP is technically harder to win, ask Cedric Maxwell and Andre Iguodola)



Wade could've won mvp if he didn't have crap supporting casts in 09 and 10, and if he wasn't competing with some of Lebron's best regular seasons.

Magic Is Magic wrote:but close either way. I also wish Wade won at least 1 MVP (the hardest award to win in the NBA) or had better longevity, or at least had more Finals appearances without LeBron's help. Wade without Lebron = 1 Finals appearance and the controversial D-Whistle chip.


The "controversial D-whistle chip is sort of a nonsense argument that doesn't really belong in high level discussions like this. Wade was on fire the whole playoffs destroying some of the best defenses in the league(4th ranked nets, 5th rank pistons), controversial officiating or not doesn't discredit Wade's dominance.

Magic Is Magic wrote:I really like Harden's 6x All-NBA 1st teams to Wade's 2x, that's one of the biggest reasons.


This doesn't mean anything really. At the very least he was comparable to Nash and Kobe in the 2006 regular season, and clearly better than Kobe in 2011. He was robbed of fist team in 2011.

Magic Is Magic wrote:Harden also has the incredible ability to lead the league in scoring 3x and also won an Assist title (very rare and elite company to win both scoring and assist title in a career, I believe this has only done by maybe 8 players ever?)


Harden usually hasn't been able to keep that scoring up in the postseason so i don't know why you put so much stock into it.

I do think Harden may have a bit more longevity but i don't buy that he's as good as Wade was when he was healthy and relevant.


Clearly you just like Wade over Harden. And that's fine.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 

Post#49 » by Owly » Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:53 am

DQuinn1575 wrote:
Spoiler:
colts18 wrote:
Owly wrote:Corbin was better than Bailey by the time of the trade. He was younger, better production for the past 3 years (mentally aggregating the B-Ref box-y composites), better intangibles (Corbin considered elite here, per Rick Barry and Jordan Cohn) and better on D (Bailey slipping).


Some thoughts on the post in general.

Utah were a bit unlucky with Humphries collapsing exactly after they acquired him, it looked like they were getting ... say a league average starter (maybe better, if he shook of the effects of a neck injury nagging him the prior year) as their 3rd guard. Also Murdock is overrated by the boxscores (super aggressive gambleer on D, offensive point instincts questioned too) and unlikely to find a role due to being exclusively a 1 given his size (Humphries - a combo guard - fit better). It didn't work out, which is what matters here, but even if you think they gave up too much (though Humphries would - reasonably enough I think - have been regarded as a sure thing in his role, the pieces the other way not so much), it's understandable. The "three firsts" angle is mean, part of the reason for the bad picks is they're picking low because Stockton and Malone are good: it's a 21st, a 21st and a 23rd (in a 27 team league).


Yes. See Corbin above. I think given what was given up for him the Jeff Malone deal is perhaps undersold here, based on the above statement. I would tend to agree with the net sentiment that the front office did a bad job and the "didn't win a title so ..." angle is missing this context.

The VORP table isn't necessarily calibrated to my tastes (even if I was higher on BPM). If you were high minutes on a good team, given the low bar to be positive in VORP if you can get in the vicinity of 3000 minutes you don't have to be that good to get to 2 VORP (Willie Anderson, young Sean Elliott, Avery Johnson) and so it's as much about do you have a stable (high-end [in minutes - not talent] heavy) rotation. I didn't love the inclusion of single players (Robinson and Duncan) or at least they should have been separate imo, there's just more stats to consume (and a greater share of team-based credit available in a way that might junk up the comparison. This maybe be a result of recycling material from an old post and a different context.


Owly,

Great post. Your views on Corbin vs Bailey align with mine. I don't see Bailey as anything special. He was a scorer who was not particularly efficient (above average TS% in 3 out of 13 seasons), wasn't a passer (never above 2.0 APG), and he was a 6' 11 player who sucked at rebounding (Career high Rebounds is 6.6 Per Game). He has 1 career season above 0 BPM (+0.2). His career high in PER is just 16.3. I do think he was solid in the 1988 and 1989 seasons (20 PPG on 55 TS%). From 1990-1992, he had a clear dropoff (13 PPG on 51 TS%). He was fine in the 1988 and 1990 playoffs, but was straight up garbage in the 1989 and 1991 playoffs. I like Corbin's fit better with the Jazz. Even when he left the Jazz, he was a starter on the 1997 Hawks team that had one of the most productive starting lineups since 1997.


As far as VORP, I do see your point about role players racking up VORP by playing high minutes. The Jazz players were still not good in per possession stats either. Here are the Jazz players with above average BPM's from 1988-1994 (Min. 1000 MP):

93 Corbin +0.6
89 Eaton +0.6
92 Corbin +0.4
90 Eaton +0.4
88 Bailey +0.2
88 Edwards +0.0

# of players with a BPM worse than -2.0: 20

The best mark in those 7 years was just a +0.6 BPM. They never once had 2 players with a BPM over 0 from 1988-1994. None of the role players on those Jazz teams did anything worthy of note either before Stockton/Malone or after leaving the Jazz. They simply weren't good players.

Compare that to 1995-1999 (5 seasons):
96 Hornacek +4.4
97 Hornacek +3.9
95 Hornacek +3.8
98 Hornacek +3.7
99 Hornacek +3.4
97 Russell +1.9
99 Russell +1.5
96 Morris +0.9
99 Ostertag +0.8
98 Russell +0.8
98 Anderson +0.7
98 Keefe +0.6

# of players with a BPM worse than -2.0: 9

That's 12 players in 5 seasons (2.4 per season). 11 different seasons in those 5 years better than the best 88-94 season. Is it any wonder why the Jazz were significantly more successful from 95-99 than they were from 88-94? The Jazz had actual solid role players during those years. They even had bench players who could contribute which didn't happen in 1988-1994 when they would go 6 or 7 deep come playoff time.


Lots of good stuff about the woes of Utah in getting second level support other than Hornacek - I guess my problem with Stockton is that he never stepped it up on scoring - his line looks incredibly consistent, he wasnt an Isiah, Magic, Frazier, Chris Paul who tried to score more when his team needed it. He got a team to be so good, but didnt quite have enough to put them over the top.

So the questions that occur to me are

How valuable is variance in scoring in a point guard?
How valuable is variance in scoring in a point guard given a known average performance (given known average in box scoring, overall box, impact)?
Is it intrinsically valuable (Abdul-Rauf)? Or requiring other factors/contexts?
Is it different to supporting high scoring games in teammates?
How valuable is, twice/thrice in a lifetime 40 point games to a career evaluation? Can be adjusted to point per 75, or where the target threshold for the top half a percent or quarter of a percent of scoring games should be?
Does whether your team wins those big point games matter to your evaluation?


The bolded seems incompatible with having read and accepted the post in response to, which you seemed to do. He's got big lift in RAPM, WoWY, 94-96 on-off, all the boxscore production, you know there were a bunch of non-elite-contender level casts, but the top end players made them way too good to reboot or rebuild through picks (even on arrival, before they're good, high picks tend to get other high picks as their core/trade base and talent on the same timeline [OKC did this really well; Process augmented it with other picks; Bulls did well enough with acquiring picks to get Oakley, Pippen, Grant] but the Jazz never bottomed out and almost never hit on their picks) but "he didn't have enough to put them over the top". Is it that he didn't have enough points?
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 

Post#50 » by Owly » Sun Nov 29, 2020 10:04 am

DQuinn1575 wrote:
colts18 wrote:
1

Recap:
-The Jazz lost to 10 opponents who averaged 59 wins and a 6.66 SRS (better than the 2020 Lakers).
-If the Jazz beat their opponent during the 8 years they lost before the finals, they would have face an average 2 more teams each year with an average record of 60-22, 6.43 SRS (same SRS as the 2019 Warriors).

How do you expect them to beat teams as good as the championship LeBron Lakers, then beat a team as good as the 2019 Warriors in the WCF, then beat another team as good as the KD/Curry Warriors in the finals? That's a near impossible task.


They never beat the best or second best team in the league. Really hard to win the title if you don't beat on of the top two teams in the league.

This seems like large part truism ... hard to win the title if you didn't win the title ... since if you beat the best team you probably did win the title.

Then too, it's hard to beat the 2nd best team if you are it ('97, probably when healthy '98 - though others may have "when healthy" claims).

And then they did, in '98, beat the top 2 non-Chicago SRSes (Seattle, LA).

And then it's a team level thing anyway. So say, if you consider the '88 Lakers a top 2 team, what is it about Stockton's performance/game that you felt impeded them from winning?
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 

Post#51 » by ccameron » Sun Nov 29, 2020 4:13 pm

Magic Is Magic wrote:Harden also has better playoff per-game stats at the moment and isn't far behind in total stats in the playoffs


I think this analysis doesn't hold up at all. If you are talking about playoffs and beginning to think Harden is a better playoff performer than Wade, something is off and needs to be reassessed. I know I'm just quoting one line out of your response but when you take something like career playoff stats as a point of comparison you need to take this into more context. As No-more-rings pointed out, Wade was in the playoffs well past his prime/injured (2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018), so Harden doesn't have that yet.

Wade is very clearly a better playoff performer, and comparing points per game and TS across eras, as you know, does not tell the whole story.I don't agree with all of Ben Taylor's analysis but I would recommend this podcast comparing Harden, Kobe, and Wade:

https://www.stitcher.com/show/thinking-basketball-podcast/episode/34-harden-vs-kobe-vs-wade-great-debates-65452113
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 

Post#52 » by LA Bird » Sun Nov 29, 2020 4:31 pm

1. Chris Paul
2. John Stockton
3. Steve Nash


Spoiler:
Paul is the most well-rounded point guard ever, his advanced metrics are among the best in both regular season and playoffs, and he has quietly accumulated some huge career totals (he is 6.0 career RS+PO WS away from Oscar who is widely regarded as the second best point guard ever). One of the main criticism against Paul it that he is too conservative and risk-averse in his offensive approach but that argument doesn't make sense when Paul's on-court ORtg is still all time great and his scoring volume actually goes up in the playoffs and in the clutch. This was an old post of mine from the last top 100 project (numbers will be updated if I can find the spreadsheet):
LA Bird wrote:Since CP3 is criticized for his 'failures' in the clutch again, I thought I'll present the playoffs career clutch stats (per 36) for the best perimeter players in recent years:

Curry: 35.7 / 5.1 / 4.3 / 59.2% TS
Kobe: 32.4 / 4.4 / 3.5 / 54.2% TS
Paul: 32.1 / 5.5 / 4.5 / 63.4% TS
LeBron: 32.1 / 7.7 / 5.8 / 55.0% TS
Durant: 26.6 / 7.5 / 2.4 / 54.9% TS
Harden: 25.1 / 4.8 / 2.5 / 55.9% TS
Wade: 23.2 / 6.7 / 3.3 / 52.3% TS
Westbrook: 22.7 / 7.7 / 4.3 / 40.6% TS
Nash: 21.8 / 4.1 / 9.1 / 63.3% TS

Contrary to the narrative of him being a playoff choker, Paul is one of the top scorers in the clutch with elite shooting efficiency.


Stockton didn't have an all time peak for a point guard but he climbed his way up the rankings through unmatched longevity. He was never a top 5 player in any season but if he was, he would be in the top 10 next to Garnett not here at around #25. Nash could have been in the same tier as Paul if his Mavs years were as good as his Suns years.

If I am picking point guards, some might ask why no Curry when he peaked higher than all three? Firstly, I think Draymond doesn't get enough credit for his impact on the pre-KD Warriors. People talk about Curry's offense as though Golden State were a revolutionary team built off GOAT offense like Nash's Suns when half of their success as a small ball team came on defense. Secondly, Curry missed playoffs games and didn't play near RS level when he did play in both the 2016 and 2018 playoffs, in addition to missing a huge chunk of the 2018 regular season. Paul gets crucified for missing 2 playoff games while Curry gets a pass for missing 6 playoff games just because his team was good enough to win without him. Curry will climb higher by the time his career is over but at the moment, I have him around Wade level with slightly less longevity.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 

Post#53 » by Joey Wheeler » Sun Nov 29, 2020 4:37 pm

1-Dywane Wade

Incredible force at his peak, one of the best Finals performances ever. Could be much higher if not for injuries/longevity. He's one of the greatest forces ever attacking the rim.

2-Isiah Thomas

Clear cut best player on a dynastic-type team (back to back champions, would have 3-peated if not for an egregious call + injury, 5 ECFs in a row) that overcame Bird's Celtics and Magic's Lakers. He lacks the individual dominance of other guys who were clear cut best players in dynastic type teams, but this is about the range where he belongs. Great floor general, could really ramp up his scoring when necessary and elevated his game in the playoffs. Also of course great intangibles, he was the captain of the team and set the tone for the "Bad Boy" culture.

3-TBD - don't feel strongly about anyone here, would have to think about it a bit more
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 

Post#54 » by ccameron » Sun Nov 29, 2020 5:20 pm

Not sure if it's appropriate for me to vote because, full disclosure, I'm kind of jumping in because I think Wade should be getting more traction and want to open that discussion, but here is what I would vote, count it or don't count it:

1.Dwyane Wade
2. Chris Paul
3. Steph Curry


Just so you know, I see arguments for these three going in any order. All three have injury issues, especially in the playoffs, so that isn't a distinguishing factor for them. It comes down to peak and longevity, and I can see these three any order.

1. Dwyane Wade

Wade I think is not getting enough traction as I think he should. His peak was all time level, with the ability to raise his game in big moments like few players could. His ability to get to the rim in the half court is possibly second to none, and he did it for most of his prime in an era and on a team with no spacing and heavily congested paint. It's annoying to say a player from the past would be better today, but in Wade's case, he really would have a field day with the amount of spacing at the rim today. Which is why it's a shame a lot of people think he wouldn't be great today because he hardly shot 3s. And why it's also unfair to compare %FG at the rim with modern players -- very likely Wade's TS% and FG% would be higher if he played today.

I don't understand the point some have made that his success in '06 somehow taints the perception of him or gives him credit he didn't deserve, as Doctor MJ suggested. Dirk's ring in '11 might have made people realize how good he was, but that doesn't mean that ring gave him credit he didn't deserve. Especially since it's arguable Wade's '06 finals may not even be his best playoff series. A player doesn't rise to that occasion and take that kind of pressure down 2 games to none because of some fluke. He was an all time resilient playoff performer, which isn't reflected in his career stats because he made deep playoff runs when he was past his prime and injured alongside Lebron.

He is getting unfairly criticized for not leading all time offenses, when it is clear he has been on defensive minded teams his whole career, has never had a team that was catered to his offensive capabilities. Comparing the success of his offense with more modern players like Harden or Curry, who have had teams molded around their talents, is just not the right way to think of him. Had he played on teams like Harden, Curry, or Lebron in the second half of his career, there is every reason to think that his combination of attacking and passing would produce excellent offenses. Other underrated aspects of Wade's career is that he was much more portable than he is given credit for. Spoelstra called Wade a chameleon because of his ability to play any role he was asked. And it's surprising to me that more people don't recognize that he probably played more roles throughout his career than any other superstar -- he played the Kobe role of playing alongside a big man in Shaq (and throughout his career he played very well alongside a traditional big man), floor raiser on a trash team, and, what was perhaps the hardest thing of all, completely changed his game to play alongside Lebron, who occupied the exact space Wade was used to occupying. when Wade was healthy, that pairing was all time great -- think of mid season 2012 and mid-season 2013, when Wade was still healthy and close to prime. It's a shame people only remember injured Wade in the later playoffs, who didn't quite work well with Lebron because of those injuries (not because he couldn't adapt). Despite the lack of a 3 point shot, he had a very good off-ball game because of his slashing and his ability to "ghost" his defenders by catching them ball watching.

What is bad about him is his longevity and lack of a 3 point shot -- although his percentage was not indicative of his skill -- most of his 3 pt attempts were end of shot clock and he played in an era where he was told not to even bother with it.

His defense was also a very strong point but I won't get into that now so I can say something about CP3 and Curry.

2. Chris Paul

When I started writing this post I initially put Chris Paul at #1, because he just has a massive longevity advantage at this point over both Wade and Curry. He just consistently makes teams better his whole career. Peak wise, I don't think he had that "one-man-wrecking crew" ability of Wade, or the offensive warping capability of Curry, but it was an extremely high peak. Although I take Wade and Steph at their peak, last year I just couldn't ignore the fact that he is still making teams better this late in his career. Although his personality has been questioned as a team player, I think the fact that he is a ruthless competitor is in his favor, and with the right teammates who are equally intent on winning, it wouldn't be a problem (see Jimmy Butler on the Heat).

If Chris Paul has another season where he is contributing at or near the level he was in OKC, it will be hard for me not to put him at the top. His absolute ceiling is a little lower than the other two, but it's hard to deny his impact.

3. Steph Curry

Curry has a peak which I think is at Wade's level, with one of the best offensive season of all time. I give more credit to Curry than to Durant for success of Golden state, although it's hard to split hairs there. I think Curry's 3 point shot is up there with the best ever, but what really sets him apart for me is his off-ball movement. I think the combination of the threat of his range with his off-ball movement is what sets him apart and allowed the Warriors to produce such all-time offenses. Despite injuries, healthy curry has had some great playoff performances, and his 2019 finals I think is underrated. 2017 is his best finals statistically, but 2019 showed, I think, that he was capable of keeping his team in the game even when everything seemed to go to hell -- that's what you have to expect in the playoffs. He had a couple dud games/moments, but he had some brilliant games, and he didn't crumble under those circumstances. That's important. He changed the game, and his skill allowed the Warriors to run an offense that we hadn't seen before. His defensive instincts are good but there is no getting around the fact that he can be targeted on that end, but he more than makes up for that with his GOAT level offense.

I only put him last in this group because CP3 has a much longer prime, and although his peak is the same as Wade's I think, I trust Wade in the playoffs more (also, FWIW, I don't think he has a longevity advantage over Wade yet -- same amount of prime seasons, but I value Wade's '14, '15, and '16 seasons, although clearly post prime, as all star or at least near all-star level). Some people would take issue with the idea that Wade was a better playoff performer because from a statistical point of view Curry's prime playoff seasons compare favorably or at least comparable to Wade's prime playoff runs, but again, I think taking into account the different eras, and the team constructions and emphasis, that's not telling the whole story. I can make the same argument that prime Harden's numbers in the playoffs look as good as Wade's prime numbers, but that is even less convincing. I think Wade has more playoff resiliency and is probably less dependent on having the right cast around him. That is, we've seen Curry with an all-time cast perfectly catered to his talents and centered on his ability. I don't think we ever saw that for Wade, but he still had similar success. It's not an easy or obvious comparison, but I trust Wade more.

But basically I think these three could be in any order. I know Wade is probably not gong to get a lot of traction here so it's not going to change this round, but I want to make the argument now to get people thinking more, because I think he should start to get more traction than he is getting.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 

Post#55 » by eminence » Sun Nov 29, 2020 5:24 pm

1. Steve Nash
2. Chris Paul
3. Stephen Curry


Same votes as last round, I think Nash/CP3 combine MVP peak with decent longevity in a way nobody else remaining does, though CP3 loses some points with his durability. Steph's longevity is not good, but gets major points for being pretty clearly the highest peak remaining in my estimation (minus Walton and maybe some even younger guys with even worse longevity). Stockton the longevity king will be competing with Harden for my next spot I'm thinking, Wade maybe?
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 

Post#56 » by DQuinn1575 » Sun Nov 29, 2020 5:41 pm

Owly wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:
colts18 wrote:
1

Recap:
-The Jazz lost to 10 opponents who averaged 59 wins and a 6.66 SRS (better than the 2020 Lakers).
-If the Jazz beat their opponent during the 8 years they lost before the finals, they would have face an average 2 more teams each year with an average record of 60-22, 6.43 SRS (same SRS as the 2019 Warriors).

How do you expect them to beat teams as good as the championship LeBron Lakers, then beat a team as good as the 2019 Warriors in the WCF, then beat another team as good as the KD/Curry Warriors in the finals? That's a near impossible task.


They never beat the best or second best team in the league. Really hard to win the title if you don't beat on of the top two teams in the league.

This seems like large part truism ... hard to win the title if you didn't win the title ... since if you beat the best team you probably did win the title.

Then too, it's hard to beat the 2nd best team if you are it ('97, probably when healthy '98 - though others may have "when healthy" claims).

And then they did, in '98, beat the top 2 non-Chicago SRSes (Seattle, LA).

And then it's a team level thing anyway. So say, if you consider the '88 Lakers a top 2 team, what is it about Stockton's performance/game that you felt impeded them from winning?


Yes, so 98 is probably the only year they beat a top team in the playoffs, most of the other years they beat maybe the 4th best team but lost to a team that is better than them. And other than the Bulls, they weren't losing to all-time great teams. The teams are very good, but as pointed out very well they weren't quite championship level teams.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 

Post#57 » by DQuinn1575 » Sun Nov 29, 2020 5:58 pm

Owly wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:
Spoiler:
colts18 wrote:
Owly,

Great post. Your views on Corbin vs Bailey align with mine. I don't see Bailey as anything special. He was a scorer who was not particularly efficient (above average TS% in 3 out of 13 seasons), wasn't a passer (never above 2.0 APG), and he was a 6' 11 player who sucked at rebounding (Career high Rebounds is 6.6 Per Game). He has 1 career season above 0 BPM (+0.2). His career high in PER is just 16.3. I do think he was solid in the 1988 and 1989 seasons (20 PPG on 55 TS%). From 1990-1992, he had a clear dropoff (13 PPG on 51 TS%). He was fine in the 1988 and 1990 playoffs, but was straight up garbage in the 1989 and 1991 playoffs. I like Corbin's fit better with the Jazz. Even when he left the Jazz, he was a starter on the 1997 Hawks team that had one of the most productive starting lineups since 1997.


As far as VORP, I do see your point about role players racking up VORP by playing high minutes. The Jazz players were still not good in per possession stats either. Here are the Jazz players with above average BPM's from 1988-1994 (Min. 1000 MP):

93 Corbin +0.6
89 Eaton +0.6
92 Corbin +0.4
90 Eaton +0.4
88 Bailey +0.2
88 Edwards +0.0

# of players with a BPM worse than -2.0: 20

The best mark in those 7 years was just a +0.6 BPM. They never once had 2 players with a BPM over 0 from 1988-1994. None of the role players on those Jazz teams did anything worthy of note either before Stockton/Malone or after leaving the Jazz. They simply weren't good players.

Compare that to 1995-1999 (5 seasons):
96 Hornacek +4.4
97 Hornacek +3.9
95 Hornacek +3.8
98 Hornacek +3.7
99 Hornacek +3.4
97 Russell +1.9
99 Russell +1.5
96 Morris +0.9
99 Ostertag +0.8
98 Russell +0.8
98 Anderson +0.7
98 Keefe +0.6

# of players with a BPM worse than -2.0: 9

That's 12 players in 5 seasons (2.4 per season). 11 different seasons in those 5 years better than the best 88-94 season. Is it any wonder why the Jazz were significantly more successful from 95-99 than they were from 88-94? The Jazz had actual solid role players during those years. They even had bench players who could contribute which didn't happen in 1988-1994 when they would go 6 or 7 deep come playoff time.


Lots of good stuff about the woes of Utah in getting second level support other than Hornacek - I guess my problem with Stockton is that he never stepped it up on scoring - his line looks incredibly consistent, he wasnt an Isiah, Magic, Frazier, Chris Paul who tried to score more when his team needed it. He got a team to be so good, but didnt quite have enough to put them over the top.

So the questions that occur to me are

How valuable is variance in scoring in a point guard?
How valuable is variance in scoring in a point guard given a known average performance (given known average in box scoring, overall box, impact)?
Is it intrinsically valuable (Abdul-Rauf)? Or requiring other factors/contexts?
Is it different to supporting high scoring games in teammates?
How valuable is, twice/thrice in a lifetime 40 point games to a career evaluation? Can be adjusted to point per 75, or where the target threshold for the top half a percent or quarter of a percent of scoring games should be?
Does whether your team wins those big point games matter to your evaluation?


The bolded seems incompatible with having read and accepted the post in response to, which you seemed to do. He's got big lift in RAPM, WoWY, 94-96 on-off, all the boxscore production, you know there were a bunch of non-elite-contender level casts, but the top end players made them way too good to reboot or rebuild through picks (even on arrival, before they're good, high picks tend to get other high picks as their core/trade base and talent on the same timeline [OKC did this really well; Process augmented it with other picks; Bulls did well enough with acquiring picks to get Oakley, Pippen, Grant] but the Jazz never bottomed out and almost never hit on their picks) but "he didn't have enough to put them over the top". Is it that he didn't have enough points?


First we are talking about whether he is 23rd best player of all-time or maybe 33rd? The guy was great.
Thanks, I'll be a little lazy, and not type out every year, but between 1992 and 2001 Stockton was 21.5-22.3 points per 100 possessions, with a high of usage of 20.1% I haven't looked at it closely, and maybe I'm wrong, but just think if you have a questionable roster, you would at some time pick up the scoring if you are a Top 25 player of all-time. I think that other than Russell everybody else in the Top 25 was capable of carrying a scoring load. So can a team with Stockton as the best player win a title? I think No, but I think Yes for Karl Malone. Can a team with Stockton as best player be a top 2-3 team in the league? I guess that is the hurdle I have with Stockton. He is good enough to be 2nd best player on a title team, I think the lack of team quality after Hornacek was documented pretty well here. And he was that good for a long time. Trade him with Isiah, and he probably wins the 2 titles with the Bad Boys. He has longevity on virtually everybody, and he gets credit for that.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 

Post#58 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Nov 29, 2020 6:15 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
eminence wrote:On Pettit - Don't really agree with the statement that he was ever the best player (maybe in some sort of net fashion, though there I'd probably side with Schayes) in the league between Mikan and Russell. His rookie year I don't really see the claim at all, '56 it seems fairly weak compared to Arizin's, '57 is probably Pettit's best shot at the crown in Russell's rookie year.

Pettit's level of respect around the league seems to me to have inflated his historical claim to goodness when looking at his play. I really really don't see the separation from Schayes/Arizin on a prime level.


I'll co-sign some on this.

I think when you really break down the years between Mikan's reign and Russell's, the only guy who has a clear cut championship belt moment is Paul Arizin, and it's really just for a moment.

How do we come to think Pettit reigned? I think it's the combination of the '55-56 MVP and his '57-58 championship. It paints a certain picture that breaks down when you look at it. Arizin was clearly the best player of '55-56 from an all-season perspective, and the Hawks don't get that chip if Russell's not hurt.

I have always rated Pettit ahead of Arizin in general because I'm impressed by how he adapted to '60s play and the extended prime this gave him, but peak vs peak, really not sure I'd side with Pettit over Arizin.

And on Schayes, I'm still not seeing a prime vs prime comparison with him and Arizin. Arizin probably had the best offensive season of the entire decade carrying his offensively dominant team to a title, Schayes was a less dominant offensive force at peak who peaked after his team won their championship with defense for which he was not as praised as some of his teammates.

As said, no gripe if you have Schayes > Arizin by overall career, but I'm not seeing what's pointing us to an actual debate best vs best.


I kind of see the title of best player has vacant between Mikan and Russell - Neil Johnston might also have a claim with Arizin,Pettit Schayes, I have Pettit highest, but not sure if he was best long enough for me to give him the title.


I think you really need to look closely at the '55-56 season and not in particular that it was Arizin that carried the Warriors to the title, not Johnston. When you add in that Johnston had remarkably little correlation between his stats and team record, to me that goes further. It's very hard for me to see an argument between the two teammates there.

And when when you're looking at those '55-56 playoff numbers, compare them to the best of what Pettit & Schayes had to offer. Certainly neither Pettit nor Schayes was as dominantly "the man" as Arizin was in those playoffs. That club really seems to have been the peak of basketball offense in history to that point, and Arizin was the driving force of it.

Now as mentioned, because of longevity issues I've always had Pettit over Arizin and I can see the case for Schayes over Arizin too. Additionally, you can certainly argue that what Pettit & Schayes displayed in the '60s makes them more impressive overall than Arizin.

But in terms of having a moment where you resoundingly knock the rest of the world on its back, to me Arizin is the only one of that group to have it.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 

Post#59 » by DQuinn1575 » Sun Nov 29, 2020 6:24 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
I'll co-sign some on this.

I think when you really break down the years between Mikan's reign and Russell's, the only guy who has a clear cut championship belt moment is Paul Arizin, and it's really just for a moment.

How do we come to think Pettit reigned? I think it's the combination of the '55-56 MVP and his '57-58 championship. It paints a certain picture that breaks down when you look at it. Arizin was clearly the best player of '55-56 from an all-season perspective, and the Hawks don't get that chip if Russell's not hurt.

I have always rated Pettit ahead of Arizin in general because I'm impressed by how he adapted to '60s play and the extended prime this gave him, but peak vs peak, really not sure I'd side with Pettit over Arizin.

And on Schayes, I'm still not seeing a prime vs prime comparison with him and Arizin. Arizin probably had the best offensive season of the entire decade carrying his offensively dominant team to a title, Schayes was a less dominant offensive force at peak who peaked after his team won their championship with defense for which he was not as praised as some of his teammates.

As said, no gripe if you have Schayes > Arizin by overall career, but I'm not seeing what's pointing us to an actual debate best vs best.


I kind of see the title of best player has vacant between Mikan and Russell - Neil Johnston might also have a claim with Arizin,Pettit Schayes, I have Pettit highest, but not sure if he was best long enough for me to give him the title.


I think you really need to look closely at the '55-56 season and not in particular that it was Arizin that carried the Warriors to the title, not Johnston. When you add in that Johnston had remarkably little correlation between his stats and team record, to me that goes further. It's very hard for me to see an argument between the two teammates there.

And when when you're looking at those '55-56 playoff numbers, compare them to the best of what Pettit & Schayes had to offer. Certainly neither Pettit nor Schayes was as dominantly "the man" as Arizin was in those playoffs. That club really seems to have been the peak of basketball offense in history to that point, and Arizin was the driving force of it.

Now as mentioned, because of longevity issues I've always had Pettit over Arizin and I can see the case for Schayes over Arizin too. Additionally, you can certainly argue that what Pettit & Schayes displayed in the '60s makes them more impressive overall than Arizin.

But in terms of having a moment where you resoundingly knock the rest of the world on its back, to me Arizin is the only one of that group to have it.


Neil Johnston- I can't remember if it was Wilt or Connie Hawkins (or both) who slammed Johnston as a coach. But what an odd career - 3rd in scoring, 1st in fg% at age 27, all-star next year. a sub next year and out of the league the next. Four times first team all-nba, and no consideration at all for Top 100.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #23 

Post#60 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Nov 29, 2020 6:25 pm

A thought on Curry's longevity:

Curry has played longer with the Warriors at this point than anyone has played with their current team except for Udonis Haslem, who I love, but is in something of a different category.

I think it's worth asking how many guys have done more for a franchise than Curry. I'm not saying this is the only way to judge a player, but when we're talking about longevity, it rubs me the wrong way that the guy among current players who has been basically the dream for any franchise to have is seen as being severely lacking in longevity.

It makes me wonder what people are actually thinking about when they think about longevity. As in, unless you're Bill Russell, you much does your 8th best year with a franchise actually matter? You think any franchise is going to draft a guy while saying "Oh sure, that other guy is going to have the better 7 year prime, but we want the guy who fade less in the 8th year?" Nah, no franchise will ever think that way because they'd be fools to do so...so what exactly are we adding up that's moving people ahead of Curry?

A thought on people's reluctance about Curry:

I find myself noticing a deep skepticism about Curry that is felt strongly by other NBA players and I think clearly is infecting us as well. Because he's a paradigm shifter due to things that don't make him look physically superior, we seem to want to doubt them.

I find myself thinking that if we had done this project a year ago, Curry probably ranks ahead of Durant. Literally, Durant goes down, Curry nets 8 30 point games in the last 11, precisely what Curry doubters said he couldn't do any more, would Top 100 voters be so skeptical then? They sit for a year, each doing nothing, and Durant's reputation tends to stay put while skepticism toward Curry blooms.
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