OT: COVID-19 thread #4

[jnrjr79]

I 100% disagree.

An external crisis is literal gold to an incumbent. The GOP's negligence on this was pretty shocking. Trump coasts to re-election if he takes the pandemic seriously and takes authoritarian measures to get it under control.

I can't recall an external crisis like this in any election year with an incumbent. I'm only 37 though so its highly possible I just don't recall or aren't knowledgeable enough on it. I will say this, I can't imagine Democrats allowing Trump to take authoritarian measure. They were already worried about him being an authoritarian...you think they would have actually let him do it and not push back?

I think the fact we live in a democracy and so does western Europe is a big reason why none of our countries got it under control.

So how about Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, South Korea, etc.?

[Dresden]

I 100% disagree.

An external crisis is literal gold to an incumbent. The GOP's negligence on this was pretty shocking. Trump coasts to re-election if he takes the pandemic seriously and takes authoritarian measures to get it under control.

I can't recall an external crisis like this in any election year with an incumbent. I'm only 37 though so its highly possible I just don't recall or aren't knowledgeable enough on it. I will say this, I can't imagine Democrats allowing Trump to take authoritarian measure. They were already worried about him being an authoritarian...you think they would have actually let him do it and not push back?

I think the fact we live in a democracy and so does western Europe is a big reason why none of our countries got it under control.

So how about Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, South Korea, etc.?

In general, Asia and Australia/NZ did very well. I wonder if there is something about geography, or possibly previous exposure to a similar pathogen than just circulated in that region?

Also, regarding culture, I agree with you that Americans are particularly bad in following advice from the medical community. Look at how overweight and sedentary we are. Apparently much the same thing happened in 1918, with people up in arms when local govt's tried to impose restrictions.

It's also likely places like China were better in following rules and wearing masks due to previous outbreaks of SARS and other things like that. They know to wear masks. Hopefully the US will be better in the future. On the downside, mask wearing has now become politicized here, so we may run into the same problems with compliance in the future.

[Axolotl]

9% out of NBA players tested positive for coronavirus last week. Out of the total US population for the whole year 4% have tested positive. I wonder why these numbers are so wildly disproportionate.

[jStuNNa]

9% out of NBA players tested positive for coronavirus last week. Out of the total US population for the whole year 4% have tested positive. I wonder why these numbers are so wildly disproportionate.

I want see Bulls basketball again badly, but not this badly. I was on the fence before this news... Now I'm definitely in the camp that the league should not be doing this outside of a bubble.

[Bullflip]

9% out of NBA players tested positive for coronavirus last week. Out of the total US population for the whole year 4% have tested positive. I wonder why these numbers are so wildly disproportionate.

Because the majority of the players are young adults. Young adults are the ones who tend not to comply to the COVID restrictions. At least a few of them probably still have parties and gatherings. Since now the weather is colder, these gatherings are shifting indoors in a confined space. It’s the reason why in a typical year, the flu gets deadlier during this time of year, except COVID is much worse in terms of ease of infection and people being spreaders even without having any symptoms.

[jmajew]

9% out of NBA players tested positive for coronavirus last week. Out of the total US population for the whole year 4% have tested positive. I wonder why these numbers are so wildly disproportionate.

Because the majority of the players are young adults. Young adults are the ones who tend not to comply to the COVID restrictions. At least a few of them probably still have parties and gatherings. Since now the weather is colder, these gatherings are shifting indoors in a confined space. It’s the reason why in a typical year, the flu gets deadlier during this time of year, except COVID is much worse in terms of ease of infection and people being spreaders even without having any symptoms.

I'd like to know what percent of the positive cases were symptomatic. If half show no symptoms it gives us a good idea how the 4% number is actually extremely low. If you have no symptoms you have no reason to get tested...that 4% number could actually be much much higher.

[Axolotl]

9% out of NBA players tested positive for coronavirus last week. Out of the total US population for the whole year 4% have tested positive. I wonder why these numbers are so wildly disproportionate.

Because the majority of the players are young adults.

It's not that. https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/COVID-19-Cases-by-Age-Group.aspx

I'd like to know what percent of the positive cases were symptomatic. If half show no symptoms it gives us a good idea how the 4% number is actually extremely low. If you have no symptoms you have no reason to get tested...that 4% number could actually be much much higher.

The 4% for the population is for the whole year, the 9% for just the week they tested all players, so even is the actual number is much higher - which it is likely to be - it can't be anywhere near the 9% in one week.

[Dresden]

Here in CA, we are about to go into a semi-lockdown. Gyms, salons, churches, are all closed. No more outdoor or indoor dining. Retail stores have to limit capacity even more. It will last for 21 days, and is being triggered by having ICU units at 85% of capacity. For now the Bay Area is exempt, because our ICU units are not as full as elsewhere in the state, but they expect we will hit that point in a week or so. Scary stuff.

Some people are complaining, but I'm in favor of doing anything and everything needed to flatten the curve again. The UK just finished with a 3 week lockdown, and dropped their cases by 30%.

By the way, I saw an article yesterday that said that 80% of all cases are the result of 5 activities: dining out, bars, cafes, churches, and hotels.

[dougthonus]

9% out of NBA players tested positive for coronavirus last week. Out of the total US population for the whole year 4% have tested positive. I wonder why these numbers are so wildly disproportionate.

I would say these thing are generally true for young people:
1: Greater aura of invincibility
2: Greater amount of partying / close contact

Those things are probably both considerably magnified for rich, famous athletes

We know for sure around 18% of the league has tested positive based on a couple testing cycles, its probably likely that at least another 10% got it while they weren't in testing cycles based on the high numbers during the testing cycles. I would guess probably 1/3rd of the NBA has had it already based on the publicly available numbers.

[dougthonus]

9% out of NBA players tested positive for coronavirus last week. Out of the total US population for the whole year 4% have tested positive. I wonder why these numbers are so wildly disproportionate.

The other thing is 9% of players tested positive because they're all getting tested. If every US person got tested twice this year, the odds are that the general total population that was positive would be much, much higher too.

[Chi town]

Will be interesting to see how the vaccine plays into pro sports. You’d think guys wouldn’t want the bubble life and would get vaccinated right away but you can’t legally force players to get a vaccine due to it violating the CBA most likely... interesting times ahead.

[moorhosj]

The Iran Hostage Crisis comes to mind- and it sure didn't help Jimmy Carter. The Vietnam War in '68 was a big reason LBJ didn't run for a second term, too. He was getting creamed about that issue by Nixon.

This case is different, as we have a bunch of Governors who also had to deal with COVID. Governors don't have to deal with wars or a foreign hostage crisis. We have some data that shows how Governor's responses to COVID impacted their approval ratings. Namely, those who took stricter measures, saw higher approval, especially for Republican Governors.

“There are five states (Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Vermont) with Republican governors that have taken a more aggressive stance in managing the Pandemic,” the researchers write. “In those five states, approval for the Republican governor… has consistently been high, remarkably, averaged across the five states, a bit higher among Democrats.”

article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/09/15/governors-who-took-strict-covid-19-measures-enjoy-highest-approval-survey-shows/?sh=5846d555340b
data: https://kateto.net/covid19/COVID19%20CONSORTIUM%20REPORT%2022%20APPROVAL%20V2%20NOV%202020.pdf

[2018C3]

A new study is now saying that covid may have all ready been in the USA as early as last December.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/01/health/covid-antibody-blood-december-study/index.html

It makes me wonder, after the family Christmas party last year, several of the family members got very sick. I first got sick right before new years eve, and felt terrible for almost 2 weeks. I also have a family member who was working in China, and that side of the family got together on a evening a few days before Christmas.

[dice]

Will be interesting to see how the vaccine plays into pro sports. You’d think guys wouldn’t want the bubble life and would get vaccinated right away but you can’t legally force players to get a vaccine due to it violating the CBA most likely... interesting times ahead.

i think there will be a lot of pressure on them to get vaccinated. they'll look real silly if they get themselves benched when there's a vaccine available. and given that those with financial resources will inevitably get earlier access, ego associated with privilege will likely factor in as well ("look at me, i already got my vaccine")

i hope that some sort of ostentatious and uniform symbol of being vaccinated catches on - like a ribbon or button or something. virtue signaling with a public benefit

[dice]

A new study is now saying that covid may have all ready been in the USA as early as last December.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/01/health/covid-antibody-blood-december-study/index.html

It makes me wonder, after the family Christmas party last year, several of the family members got very sick. I first got sick right before new years eve, and felt terrible for almost 2 weeks. I also have a family member who was working in China, and that side of the family got together on a evening a few days before Christmas.

sounds plausible if you've got that direct china connection (particularly if wuhan, obviously)

[2018C3]

Yea, this does not sound truthful to say now, But my relative was working in Wuhan.

While talking to family members before, we brought up the possibility among ourselves, but the information put out always said it did not arrive here until later.

My nephew got sick first, and then after Christmas most of the people at the party also got sick. It could have just been a normal seasonal flu that got passed around, but who knows.

Its not the first Christmas party that took me out, another time we got together at a restaurant a few days after Christmas, and I ended up having someone drive to a hospital with food poisoning. That time I literally thought I was going to die, but was fine a few days later.

I have a large extended family that still keeps in touch, so different sections get together on different days around the holidays. Sometimes I can't even remember how they are all related. Also some of the people are not even related and just friends of my grandparents extended families.

My grandparents had a large group of friends that got together at there house when they were still alive, and the various families became close and try to continue the tradition. It gets harder to do every year.

[Dresden]

I know a family in Boston who all came down with bad colds last December. They all recovered, except for one of the sons, who developed a pneumonia that lasted for over 2 months. They got tested recently, and they all had Covid antibodies.

[coldfish]

Yea, this does not sound truthful to say now, But my relative was working in Wuhan.

While talking to family members before, we brought up the possibility among ourselves, but the information put out always said it did not arrive here until later.

My nephew got sick first, and then after Christmas most of the people at the party also got sick. It could have just been a normal seasonal flu that got passed around, but who knows.

Its not the first Christmas party that took me out, another time we got together at a restaurant a few days after Christmas, and I ended up having someone drive to a hospital with food poisoning. That time I literally thought I was going to die, but was fine a few days later.

I have a large extended family that still keeps in touch, so different sections get together on different days around the holidays. Sometimes I can't even remember how they are all related. Also some of the people are not even related and just friends of my grandparents extended families.

My grandparents had a large group of friends that got together at there house when they were still alive, and the various families became close and try to continue the tradition. It gets harder to do every year.

Just to note, there is overwhelming scientific evidence that covid was circulating globally in December.

https://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/covid-may-have-been-in-la-as-early-as-december-2019
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-virus-italy-december.html
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-us-early-december-2019-study/story?id=74479234

There is other stuff.

Also, it was leaked that Trump was being briefed on it in December.

CNN released data showing it had been circulating in China for a while before December.

Regardless, the initial timeline given to the public is laughably wrong.

[Chi town]

I know a family in Boston who all came down with bad colds last December. They all recovered, except for one of the sons, who developed a pneumonia that lasted for over 2 months. They got tested recently, and they all had Covid antibodies.

As antibody tests become cheaper and more available I think we will find out many of us have already had it which in turn will show how the death rate and hospitalization rate is actually much less than what we think.

My whole family had all the symptoms first week of Feb. People I work with had it too.

BTW cheapest Ive found is $250 for an antibody test.

[dougthonus]

I know a family in Boston who all came down with bad colds last December. They all recovered, except for one of the sons, who developed a pneumonia that lasted for over 2 months. They got tested recently, and they all had Covid antibodies.

As antibody tests become cheaper and more available I think we will find out many of us have already had it which in turn will show how the death rate and hospitalization rate is actually much less than what we think.

My whole family had all the symptoms first week of Feb. People I work with had it too.

BTW cheapest Ive found is $250 for an antibody test.

The problem with the antibody test too is you need to make sure you get the right one, one of them only shows antibodies if they were present in the last month or so.