2019 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

Fangraphs' rating system would have him in the low teens/early 20s, I believe. Which seems fair...really hard to know what you have in a 16 year old.

Beltre's a little unusual in that scouts have seen much more of him than your average J2 kid, as he played a lot of travel ball stateside. The book on him is that he's ++ makeup, with a very advanced skillset, but doesn't have standout tools. There are worse things than a 16 year old with a well-rounded game and a high degree of likelihood to stick in the infield, which is why he cost a fair chunk.

polo007 · Post #5531 » by **polo007** » Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:54 pm

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Post #5532 » by **Schad** » Fri Jan 15, 2021 10:53 pm

For the hell of it, thought I'd go back 10 years and see what became of the IFA class of 2010, where we actually signed the most expensive player (these are the top twenty by bonus).

Adonys Cardona - failed to get past A ball.
Luis Heredia - reached AA.
Ariel Ovando - didn't even reach full-season.
Phillips Castillo - didn't even reach full-season.
Renato Nunez - mediocre MLBer, released by the O's this offseason.
Edward Salcedo - reached AA.
Carlos Martinez - solid career as a one-time starter, now reliever.
Jorge Alfaro - middling backup catcher.
Danry Vasquez - reached AA.
Humberto Arteaga - cup of coffee with the Royals, now in Mexico.
Esteilon Peguero - reached A ball.
Orlando Calixte - cup of coffee with the Royals/Mariners, in AAA.
Duanel Jones - reached AA.
Jose Torres - cup of coffee with the Padres.
Jin-Young Kim - went back to Korea having never gotten past rookie ball.
Yoel Araujo - reached A ball.
Vicmal de la Cruz - didn't even reach full-season.
Gabriel Cenas - didn't even reach full-season.
Wilmer Romero - didn't even reach full-season.
Luis Pina - didn't even reach full-season.
Christopher Tamarez - didn't even reach full-season.

That's one solid MLB player, one other semi-regular, one AAAA player, and 17 washouts.

Way, way down the list? Ketel Marte, signed for $100k. Figuring out which 14 year old will be a major leaguer is tough.

SharoneWright · Post #5533 » by **SharoneWright** » Sat Jan 16, 2021 12:52 am

Schad wrote:For the hell of it, thought I'd go back 10 years and see what became of the IFA class of 2010, where we actually signed the most expensive player (these are the top twenty by bonus).

Adonys Cardona - failed to get past A ball.
Luis Heredia - reached AA.
Ariel Ovando - didn't even reach full-season.
Phillips Castillo - didn't even reach full-season.
Renato Nunez - mediocre MLBer, released by the O's this offseason.
Edward Salcedo - reached AA.
Carlos Martinez - solid career as a one-time starter, now reliever.
Jorge Alfaro - middling backup catcher.
Danry Vasquez - reached AA.
Humberto Arteaga - cup of coffee with the Royals, now in Mexico.
Esteilon Peguero - reached A ball.
Orlando Calixte - cup of coffee with the Royals/Mariners, in AAA.
Duanel Jones - reached AA.
Jose Torres - cup of coffee with the Padres.
Jin-Young Kim - went back to Korea having never gotten past rookie ball.
Yoel Araujo - reached A ball.
Vicmal de la Cruz - didn't even reach full-season.
Gabriel Cenas - didn't even reach full-season.
Wilmer Romero - didn't even reach full-season.
Luis Pina - didn't even reach full-season.
Christopher Tamarez - didn't even reach full-season.

That's one solid MLB player, one other semi-regular, one AAAA player, and 17 washouts.

Way, way down the list? Ketel Marte, signed for $100k. Figuring out which 14 year old will be a major leaguer is tough.

Fantastic work!

Side note: If your name is Adonys, you're already a winner!

Also, if the O's are releasing you as a 26 year old, maybe you never really were an MLBer... in the truest sense of the concept.

Post #5534 » by **Cyrus** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 1:42 am

I don't get some the mlb international pipeline rankings, why is the top dude who went to Sox getting 2 mill bonus, and the jays guy ranked 24th, getting 2.8 mill?

Post #5535 » by **Schad** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 1:57 am

Cyrus wrote:I don't get some the mlb international pipeline rankings, why is the top dude who went to Sox getting 2 mill bonus, and the jays guy ranked 24th, getting 2.8 mill?

Two things:

- Predicting IFAs is incredibly difficult, and thus internal rankings versus external are wildly divergent.

- J2 IFAs generally come to "gentleman's agreements" a good two years before they can legally sign, which makes it far more variable...you're basically signing 14 year olds, and then formalizing agreements at 16.

-MetA4- · Post #5536 » by **-MetA4-** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 5:02 pm

Cyrus wrote:I don't get some the mlb international pipeline rankings, why is the top dude who went to Sox getting 2 mill bonus, and the jays guy ranked 24th, getting 2.8 mill?

It's confusing because its misleading, and there are actually two parts to this:

1) Cespedes is a Cuban who was only cleared to sign last year by the MLB. By that point, most of the money that teams had to spend had already been committed to other kids well in advance (the 16 year old kids - or 17 now since they pushed this class to January 2021 - often have agreements in place as early as age ~13/14 with teams). This means that the amount of money that Cespedes could realistically extract was capped from the beginning, because he falls under the IFA free agency rules, but came late to the party.

2) The fact that he's even grouped into this ranking is slightly misleading. He's 23 and most of these other "IFA" kids are 17. By definition, any 23 year old who is a legitimate prospect (which he is) should automatically be "better" than their 17 year old counterpart by way of ~6 years of development. MLB includes all IFA eligible prospects (who fall under the MLB IFA rules) in this ranking, but it's really not an apple-to-apple comparison from the onset. So Cespedes is ranked #1 because he's considerably more developed and further along than the 17 year olds (and thus more likely to pan out), but it paints a lopsided picture when he "only" gets $2 million, as you stated.

Post #5537 » by **Cyrus** » Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:31 am

-MetA4- wrote:
Cyrus wrote:I don't get some the mlb international pipeline rankings, why is the top dude who went to Sox getting 2 mill bonus, and the jays guy ranked 24th, getting 2.8 mill?

It's confusing because its misleading, and there are actually two parts to this:

1) Cespedes is a Cuban who was only cleared to sign last year by the MLB. By that point, most of the money that teams had to spend had already been committed to other kids well in advance (the 16 year old kids - or 17 now since they pushed this class to January 2021 - often have agreements in place as early as age ~13/14 with teams). This means that the amount of money that Cespedes could realistically extract was capped from the beginning, because he falls under the IFA free agency rules, but came late to the party.

2) The fact that he's even grouped into this ranking is slightly misleading. He's 23 and most of these other "IFA" kids are 17. By definition, any 23 year old who is a legitimate prospect (which he is) should automatically be "better" than their 17 year old counterpart by way of ~6 years of development. MLB includes all IFA eligible prospects (who fall under the MLB IFA rules) in this ranking, but it's really not an apple-to-apple comparison from the onset. So Cespedes is ranked #1 because he's considerably more developed and further along than the 17 year olds (and thus more likely to pan out), but it paints a lopsided picture when he "only" gets $2 million, as you stated.

Thanks for the explanation, and makes better sense. But how come when compared to similar aged guys in the IFA, some "lower rank" guys are getting more than same age guys ranked higher. I take it, it's because when the jays "Agreed" to terms with their signee, he was 14, and they viewed him higher ranked, then what he is now?

They need to make a international draft.

Fairview4Life · Post #5538 » by **Fairview4Life** » Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:26 am

Cyrus wrote:
-MetA4- wrote:
Cyrus wrote:I don't get some the mlb international pipeline rankings, why is the top dude who went to Sox getting 2 mill bonus, and the jays guy ranked 24th, getting 2.8 mill?

It's confusing because its misleading, and there are actually two parts to this:

1) Cespedes is a Cuban who was only cleared to sign last year by the MLB. By that point, most of the money that teams had to spend had already been committed to other kids well in advance (the 16 year old kids - or 17 now since they pushed this class to January 2021 - often have agreements in place as early as age ~13/14 with teams). This means that the amount of money that Cespedes could realistically extract was capped from the beginning, because he falls under the IFA free agency rules, but came late to the party.

2) The fact that he's even grouped into this ranking is slightly misleading. He's 23 and most of these other "IFA" kids are 17. By definition, any 23 year old who is a legitimate prospect (which he is) should automatically be "better" than their 17 year old counterpart by way of ~6 years of development. MLB includes all IFA eligible prospects (who fall under the MLB IFA rules) in this ranking, but it's really not an apple-to-apple comparison from the onset. So Cespedes is ranked #1 because he's considerably more developed and further along than the 17 year olds (and thus more likely to pan out), but it paints a lopsided picture when he "only" gets $2 million, as you stated.

Thanks for the explanation, and makes better sense. But how come when compared to similar aged guys in the IFA, some "lower rank" guys are getting more than same age guys ranked higher. I take it, it's because when the jays "Agreed" to terms with their signee, he was 14, and they viewed him higher ranked, then what he is now?

They need to make a international draft.

Why? Who cares where some org ranks the players. You think they’re all out scouting every guy in depth for months/years? Let teams scout players and offer them money and the well managed ones will end up with better players, no matter where they were ranked by whoever when they were 16.

Post #5539 » by **Schad** » Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:38 am

Rankings for IFAs just aren't as meaningful. They're so damned young, and scouts often have only seen them in limited action.

Don't lose sleep over Beltre's ranking...it seems to mostly owe to the fact that he doesn't have any particularly loud tools, but again you're trying to project out from 16 year olds who won't reach the bigs for 5-8 years, and teams will naturally see different things there. The Jays presumably see a guy with an advanced approach and good MI glove and think that he isn't capped out for development.

-MetA4- · Post #5540 » by **-MetA4-** » Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:42 pm

Cyrus wrote:
Thanks for the explanation, and makes better sense. But how come when compared to similar aged guys in the IFA, some "lower rank" guys are getting more than same age guys ranked higher. I take it, it's because when the jays "Agreed" to terms with their signee, he was 14, and they viewed him higher ranked, then what he is now?

The rankings are obviously subjective, and in this market are even MORE subjective due to how young the kids are and the fact that you're talking about extremely limited looks with not much actual game action. For what its worth, BA ranked him 10th, and the amount of money that we gave him correlates more to that BA ranking than it does to the MLB ranking. You kinda have to just look at your team - do they do well in this market? (we do) - and conclude that they gave him what they gave him because they like him a lot.