Lauri:' I can make the comeback'

[DroseReturnChi]

This is where I am with it as well. I see very little upside to overpaying him now on the hopes that he will take some huge jump that we've expected since his rookie year. And if he does, then great. It will be better for the overall team success. Put the pressure on him to pull a Jimmy.

As someone mentioned strawmen... all this talk about the Bulls not "overpaying" Lauri is hilarious. Overpaying? 22 million per would be an overpay. 15-16 mil is far from that. That's his market value, easily.

I have no doubt Markkanen doesn't expect to get 20 million, but he also isn't gonna sign lowball offers like 11 mil.

I've said from the start he should take 15-16 million without a second thought. But if the Bulls refuse to give him that, they're stupid. That's a value deal.

This was discussed earlier. Rookie contracts are value deals. Max contracts are frequently value deals. The people making more than the MLE but less than the max are usually bad contracts and screw their team over. The CBA effectively drives money away from young players and superduperstars into these guys. Regardless of what the "market" is, you usually end up paying more than the production you get.

If Markkanen doesn't improve, you could replace his production (15.7 PER, negative rpm) for the MLE so $15m would be an overpay. At $15m you are banking on a little improvement. At $20m, you are banking on a lot of improvement.

15 overpay my ass. Gobert getting paid 40 is what you call an over pay. You do realize his market value is close to 20 even after having his worst yr? Anyone that understand NBA finance will try to resign him just below market rate to get trade value later.
Calling a all rookie nba 1st team in one of the greatest classes bad contract just because its not a max is intellectually dishonest.
Smart, Dinwiddie are all borderline all stars at value contracts. Now that literally every player above Lauri got signed, i dont even care if he gets overpaid. Just spend everything to keep our talents.

[DroseReturnChi]

This seems like an easy win situation...

- Lauri shows he has improved and can stay healthy and you resign him. Probably 20-23M per

- Lauri shows he is what he is and you trade him at the deadline for a pick

- Lauri gets hurt misses time and you just choose not to resign him and let him walk

I think Lauri will play well and AK will trade him at the deadline in a stealth tank move.

Its not easy at all because AK knows Lauri is near max player and want to sign him to a discount deal but he will bet on himself like Butler and refuse. Losing situation because if he exceeds yr 2, your possibly looking at 25+ near max and you could locked him up 4/60+. To tank and get value out of him, you need to sign him to a 4 yr deal otherwise your screwed. No ones paying picks for expiring rfa.

[sco]

This seems like an easy win situation...

- Lauri shows he has improved and can stay healthy and you resign him. Probably 20-23M per

- Lauri shows he is what he is and you trade him at the deadline for a pick

- Lauri gets hurt misses time and you just choose not to resign him and let him walk

I think Lauri will play well and AK will trade him at the deadline in a stealth tank move.

Its not easy at all because AK knows Lauri is near max player and want to sign him to a discount deal but he will bet on himself like Butler and refuse. Losing situation because if he exceeds yr 2, your possibly looking at 25+ near max and you could locked him up 4/60+. To tank and get value out of him, you need to sign him to a 4 yr deal otherwise your screwed. No ones paying picks for expiring rfa.

If Lauri plays well, it will because Billy found a way to get him to play well and allow him to succeed. Lauri will want that to continue and would most likely try to make a deal work with the Bulls. A version of Lauri that scores 20ppg on 38%+ 3's and above average defense as a great situation because he will be worth near his MAX. I think the far more likely situation is that he plays somewhere between years 2 & 3, shoots around 36% on 3's and plays below-average defense and misses 15 games. That situation is pretty easy too...you try to trade him at the deadline for a late 1st or a difference low-cost reclamation project or, more likely, as a kicker in a Porter trade.

[Stratmaster]

The issue here is that we are discussing how much the Bulls should pay Lauri when the real question is should the Bulls pay him anything at all.

The first question that needs to be answered is should they bring him back at all? I need to see him play the first 25 games this season to answer that question.

If he is no better than the average play of his first 3 years, why re-sign him? He is already feeling the entitlement of being a starter despite ever having to earn it. Is he going to accept a bench role on the same team he started on for 4 years?

If he isn't the Bulls PF for the future they need to move him if they can, but certainly shouldn't resign him unless it is bench player pay.

Again, I supported the draft pick and hope he balls out. But extending him for anything other than a value contract you know you can trade (11 mil) makes no sense.



Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

The obvious answer to this is yes. He has shown more than enough to be a valuable nba player. The only question is whether that value will worth 9-25M.

There is no advantage to let assets walk away for nothing (as opposed to walking away because they would be overpaid)

I didn't say let him walk away for nothing. I said if you extend him now, it has to be at a price you know the contract can be moved regardless of his progress this season. As far as whether you want him back on the roster next season, that is not an obvious yes. He isn't signing for 9 million, or apparently 11 million.

Again, if he isn't going to be your starting PF going forward, you likely don't want him back and I would not extend him for (to pick a number) 15 million plus.

[Jiipee84]

I have an idea.
Lets change this threads title to Lauri Markkanen The Bust instead of Lauri i can make the comeback.
This thread has turned to unreadable bull and last 28-to 30 pages are mostly just bashing and **** talk about Lauri.

My eyes are so hurt of all this **** so i really can't read this crap any further anymore.
It also seems quite clear even all last hopes about so called comeback of Lauri are totally dead.

So lets agree together that Lauri busted and very near future he'll be out of NBA.
Merry Christmas to everyone.

Hard to think anyone, who doesn't hold a grudge against the Markksman, willing to go on record for such an asinine idea.

If healthy and he himself willling, Lauri "The Finnisher" Markkanen, will play 10 more years in NBA.

But yeah, a lot of unknowledgeable smack talk in the late pages of this thread. A new thread with a neutral title like "Lauri Markkanen 2020-2021 season" would be a killer so people wouldn't join the thread with an attitude.

You are totally free to believe and think whatever you want.
But even you can't deny that Lauri's regression last season caused more questions than it gave answers.
Or can you honestly say that Lauri had fine season?

[ZOMG]

This seems like an easy win situation...

- Lauri shows he has improved and can stay healthy and you resign him. Probably 20-23M per

- Lauri shows he is what he is and you trade him at the deadline for a pick

- Lauri gets hurt misses time and you just choose not to resign him and let him walk

I think Lauri will play well and AK will trade him at the deadline in a stealth tank move.

Its not easy at all because AK knows Lauri is near max player and want to sign him to a discount deal but he will bet on himself like Butler and refuse. Losing situation because if he exceeds yr 2, your possibly looking at 25+ near max and you could locked him up 4/60+. To tank and get value out of him, you need to sign him to a 4 yr deal otherwise your screwed. No ones paying picks for expiring rfa.

If Lauri plays well, it will because Billy found a way to get him to play well and allow him to succeed. Lauri will want that to continue and would most likely try to make a deal work with the Bulls. A version of Lauri that scores 20ppg on 38%+ 3's and above average defense as a great situation because he will be worth near his MAX. I think the far more likely situation is that he plays somewhere between years 2 & 3, shoots around 36% on 3's and plays below-average defense and misses 15 games. That situation is pretty easy too...you try to trade him at the deadline for a late 1st or a difference low-cost reclamation project or, more likely, as a kicker in a Porter trade.

Context matters. Boylen cost Lauri a lot of money by treating him as a one dimensional spacer.

To prove he deserves a big contract, Markkanen needs the ball and a different role this season.

We'll see if there are enough basketballs once the real games start. I'm not very optimistic.

[Stratmaster]

As someone mentioned strawmen... all this talk about the Bulls not "overpaying" Lauri is hilarious. Overpaying? 22 million per would be an overpay. 15-16 mil is far from that. That's his market value, easily.

I have no doubt Markkanen doesn't expect to get 20 million, but he also isn't gonna sign lowball offers like 11 mil.

I've said from the start he should take 15-16 million without a second thought. But if the Bulls refuse to give him that, they're stupid. That's a value deal.

This was discussed earlier. Rookie contracts are value deals. Max contracts are frequently value deals. The people making more than the MLE but less than the max are usually bad contracts and screw their team over. The CBA effectively drives money away from young players and superduperstars into these guys. Regardless of what the "market" is, you usually end up paying more than the production you get.

If Markkanen doesn't improve, you could replace his production (15.7 PER, negative rpm) for the MLE so $15m would be an overpay. At $15m you are banking on a little improvement. At $20m, you are banking on a lot of improvement.

15 overpay my ass. Gobert getting paid 40 is what you call an over pay. You do realize his market value is close to 20 even after having his worst yr? Anyone that understand NBA finance will try to resign him just below market rate to get trade value later.
Calling a all rookie nba 1st team in one of the greatest classes bad contract just because its not a max is intellectually dishonest.
Smart, Dinwiddie are all borderline all stars at value contracts. Now that literally every player above Lauri got signed, i dont even care if he gets overpaid. Just spend everything to keep our talents.

You have to look at it in the context of the team. I am not debating that Lauri will get 15 million plus as long as he doesn't wet the bed. I am questioning whether the Bulls should pay him 15 million plus if they have decided, or decide after a short stretch of the season, that he is not going to be the starting PF they want going forward.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

Domantas Sabonis: 4/75
Davis Bertans: 5/80
Christian Wood: 3/41
Kyle Kuzma: 3/40
Montezl Harrel: 2/19

By what rationale is Lauri’s ‘floor’ 15m? Honest question.

Seems to me he’s wedged between Christian Wood and Kuzma in terms of production and upside.

[Jvaughn]

As someone mentioned strawmen... all this talk about the Bulls not "overpaying" Lauri is hilarious. Overpaying? 22 million per would be an overpay. 15-16 mil is far from that. That's his market value, easily.

I have no doubt Markkanen doesn't expect to get 20 million, but he also isn't gonna sign lowball offers like 11 mil.

I've said from the start he should take 15-16 million without a second thought. But if the Bulls refuse to give him that, they're stupid. That's a value deal.

$15-16 mil would still be a slight overpay to me. As it's already been brought up, there are MLE and below targets that give you the same production as him. I don't see what the rush is to pay him. He's not a top tier starter. Probably bottom third. Why should we invest a ton of money into someone who canon the hope that he'll finally figured it out?

Make him play for the contract and prove that he can be prodcutive. Otherwise, we're going to be immediately looking to shed that contract. I hope I'm wrong, but I'd say the odds are against him having a huge year. My guess is that he plays exactly the same, and you don't lose out on anything by waiting. If some team like the Knicks wants to still make him some huge offer, thank them for it.

I have seen a few people make this statement, but who are the MLE comps for Lauri? I don’t think it can be pure numbers based since Lauri outperforms MLE players stats-wise.

You may be able to make an impact case, but that’s hard to measure plus those same MLE guys often take less money to play for a contender.

The MLEs this year were

Harrell
Tristan T
Derrick Jones Jr
Ibaka
Crowder
Favors

Last year
Al-Farouk Aminu
George Hill
Tyus Jones

From your list, outside of Favors, Tyus, and Jones Jr., I'd take all of them and add the following for players I'd consider taking over Lauri at $15-20million:

Christian Wood
Marcus Morris (last year)
Markeif Morris (last year)
Carmelo Anthony
Enes Kanter
Frank Kaminsky
Dewayne Dedmond
Ilyasova
Wilson Chandler
Skal Labissiere

And this isn't saying these players are more talented than Lauri, but if all he can be counted on is to hit some spot up jumpers (not consistently) then I think we can use that money to better use and still get comparable production out of those players.

[ZOMG]

$15-16 mil would still be a slight overpay to me. As it's already been brought up, there are MLE and below targets that give you the same production as him. I don't see what the rush is to pay him. He's not a top tier starter. Probably bottom third. Why should we invest a ton of money into someone who canon the hope that he'll finally figured it out?

Make him play for the contract and prove that he can be prodcutive. Otherwise, we're going to be immediately looking to shed that contract. I hope I'm wrong, but I'd say the odds are against him having a huge year. My guess is that he plays exactly the same, and you don't lose out on anything by waiting. If some team like the Knicks wants to still make him some huge offer, thank them for it.

I have seen a few people make this statement, but who are the MLE comps for Lauri? I don’t think it can be pure numbers based since Lauri outperforms MLE players stats-wise.

You may be able to make an impact case, but that’s hard to measure plus those same MLE guys often take less money to play for a contender.

The MLEs this year were

Harrell
Tristan T
Derrick Jones Jr
Ibaka
Crowder
Favors

Last year
Al-Farouk Aminu
George Hill
Tyus Jones

From your list, outside of Favors, Tyus, and Jones Jr., I'd take all of them and add the following for players I'd consider taking over Lauri at $15-20million:

Christian Wood
Marcus Morris (last year)
Markeif Morris (last year)
Carmelo Anthony
Enes Kanter
Frank Kaminsky
Dewayne Dedmond
Ilyasova
Wilson Chandler
Skal Labissiere

And this isn't saying these players are more talented than Lauri, but if all he can be counted on is to hit some spot up jumpers (not consistently) then I think we can use that money to better use and still get comparable production out of those players.

Did you watch the final PS game?

[Jvaughn]

And obviously, this isn't some end all be all, but from Bleacher Reports top 100 players today:

89. Lauri Markkanen, Chicago Bulls

Pre-Bubble Rank: 94

Lauri Markkanen's finish is very much conditional. He will not deserve a top-100 spot if he closes this season like he did last year. Injuries have not helped his cause, but he has yet to sustain the multilevel shot-making required to provide the offensive boon on which his appeal is grounded.

Chicago's coaching change might benefit him more than anyone—save for maybe Wendell Carter Jr. Too much of Markkanen's shot variance seemed to originate as last-ditch, late-clock grenades under head coach Jim Boylen. That, coupled with worse-than-you-think three-point shooting—35.3 percent over the past two seasons—threatens to capsize his value. He just barely qualifies as a floor-spacer.

Glimpses into a more assertive and overall together player prevent Markkanen from falling outside these predictive exercises. For now, anyway.

Hitting his threes at a higher clip should open up the rest of his game—specifically his chances to get past defenders who overplay his outside touch. Even if he cannot capitalize on those moments with an in-between jumper, the prospect of better outside shooting and more volume at the rim makes a world of difference.

[Jiipee84]

They really need to try to get an extension done instead of letting him become RFA. Next year’s free agency is gonna have many teams with a lot of cap space in anticiption of all these top stars but nobody to spend it on.

Lauri’s gonna be offered the max by somebody, and 20M/yr will look like a discount.

Really ? and which are those NBA teams which will pay for Lauri 20 / 20+ million per year or give near a max contract ?
Are those teams Lakers, Clippers, Heat, Mavericks, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Kings, Hawks, Jazz, Raptors, 76ers, Pacers, Nets, Hornets, Wizards, Pelicans, Knicks, Suns, Celtics, Magic, Rockets, City-Thunder, Warriors, Grizzlies, Pistons, Wizards, Trailblazers, Cavaliers or Bucks ?

And what are the facts where that yours estimate of Lauri's 20 / 20+ million USD market value is based on ?
Only team who might be enough stupid to pay for Lauri about 20 / 20+ million USD per year
without seeing his 3rd year regression in NBA is some rich euroleague team.

[Jvaughn]

I have seen a few people make this statement, but who are the MLE comps for Lauri? I don’t think it can be pure numbers based since Lauri outperforms MLE players stats-wise.

You may be able to make an impact case, but that’s hard to measure plus those same MLE guys often take less money to play for a contender.

The MLEs this year were

Harrell
Tristan T
Derrick Jones Jr
Ibaka
Crowder
Favors

Last year
Al-Farouk Aminu
George Hill
Tyus Jones

From your list, outside of Favors, Tyus, and Jones Jr., I'd take all of them and add the following for players I'd consider taking over Lauri at $15-20million:

Christian Wood
Marcus Morris (last year)
Markeif Morris (last year)
Carmelo Anthony
Enes Kanter
Frank Kaminsky
Dewayne Dedmond
Ilyasova
Wilson Chandler
Skal Labissiere

And this isn't saying these players are more talented than Lauri, but if all he can be counted on is to hit some spot up jumpers (not consistently) then I think we can use that money to better use and still get comparable production out of those players.

Did you watch the final PS game?

I watched the 50 games he played this previous season. I'm not going to carry more weight on one preseason showing than I do on a full season of work. If some forgot, Lauri started off last season with a huge game, and then disappeared for the rest of the year. Lauri is not consistent. That's his biggest problem. He'll play 10 meh games, then have a super hot month, then go back to meh. There's a reason that a player who is supposed to be a shooter is only a league average 3pt shooter for his career.

[sco]

And obviously, this isn't some end all be all, but from Bleacher Reports top 100 players today:

89. Lauri Markkanen, Chicago Bulls

Pre-Bubble Rank: 94

Lauri Markkanen's finish is very much conditional. He will not deserve a top-100 spot if he closes this season like he did last year. Injuries have not helped his cause, but he has yet to sustain the multilevel shot-making required to provide the offensive boon on which his appeal is grounded.

Chicago's coaching change might benefit him more than anyone—save for maybe Wendell Carter Jr. Too much of Markkanen's shot variance seemed to originate as last-ditch, late-clock grenades under head coach Jim Boylen. That, coupled with worse-than-you-think three-point shooting—35.3 percent over the past two seasons—threatens to capsize his value. He just barely qualifies as a floor-spacer.

Glimpses into a more assertive and overall together player prevent Markkanen from falling outside these predictive exercises. For now, anyway.

Hitting his threes at a higher clip should open up the rest of his game—specifically his chances to get past defenders who overplay his outside touch. Even if he cannot capitalize on those moments with an in-between jumper, the prospect of better outside shooting and more volume at the rim makes a world of difference.

This.

[FriedRise]

Yeah this is the Butler situation again, but unlike Jimmy, Lauri is just coming off a down year AND I don't think he has the same work ethic that Jimmy had where he locked himself in the gym all summer without cable and internet (to be fair, very few do).

The Bulls should've extended Jimmy but ended up missing out on the discount and had to pay him the max. It's a different front office now, but if you can get a deal done for $15/$16M per, you do it. If he bounces back, you have a value long term contract that still allows you to improve the team. If he doesn't, he's young enough that you should be able to move him to another team who think they can revitalize his production. There are win-now teams who can use a stretch 4 like Lauri where he can be a 3rd/4th option in the starting lineup with guys who can handle (Jimmy's Heat comes to mind).

[coldfish]

As someone mentioned strawmen... all this talk about the Bulls not "overpaying" Lauri is hilarious. Overpaying? 22 million per would be an overpay. 15-16 mil is far from that. That's his market value, easily.

I have no doubt Markkanen doesn't expect to get 20 million, but he also isn't gonna sign lowball offers like 11 mil.

I've said from the start he should take 15-16 million without a second thought. But if the Bulls refuse to give him that, they're stupid. That's a value deal.

This was discussed earlier. Rookie contracts are value deals. Max contracts are frequently value deals. The people making more than the MLE but less than the max are usually bad contracts and screw their team over. The CBA effectively drives money away from young players and superduperstars into these guys. Regardless of what the "market" is, you usually end up paying more than the production you get.

If Markkanen doesn't improve, you could replace his production (15.7 PER, negative rpm) for the MLE so $15m would be an overpay. At $15m you are banking on a little improvement. At $20m, you are banking on a lot of improvement.

15 overpay my ass. Gobert getting paid 40 is what you call an over pay. You do realize his market value is close to 20 even after having his worst yr?
Calling a all rookie nba 1st team in one of the greatest classes bad contract just because its not a max is intellectually dishonest.
Smart, Dinwiddie are all borderline all stars at value contracts.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/year/2020

Gobert was actually 10th in the entire NBA for rpm and first for defense. 40m is a lot but he is a huge difference maker.

I suspect that is where a lot of the issue comes. Lauri is a terrible defender. Lauri ranked 208th in the NBA for rpm mostly because of his defense.

Anyone that understand NBA finance will try to resign him just below market rate to get trade value later.

Yes, how it works is that if one team offers a player a huge contract because they have capspace, that is his "market" value. Every other team could think its a massive overpay. When you turn around and trade that player, you probably can't. Anyone who knows NBA finance knows that examples of players immediately becoming a bad contract on their extension are legion.

Now that literally every player above Lauri got signed, i dont even care if he gets overpaid. Just spend everything to keep our talents.

That's really the problem. "Market" contracts for Lauri, Lavine, Coby, etc. are going to use up almost all of the money for a group of players that will be lucky to even make the playoffs. If our ambitions are higher, the Bulls have to get the best possible contracts for each player.

IMO, the only way the Bulls regret *not* giving Lauri $20m or more per season is if he becomes a 20 PER player or something. I think that people wildly disagree on the possibility of that happening.

[coldfish]

Yeah this is the Butler situation again, but unlike Jimmy, Lauri is just coming off a down year AND I don't think he has the same work ethic that Jimmy had where he locked himself in the gym all summer without cable and internet (to be fair, very few do).

The Bulls should've extended Jimmy but ended up missing out on the discount and had to pay him the max. It's a different front office now, but if you can get a deal done for $15/$16M per, you do it. If he bounces back, you have a value long term contract that still allows you to improve the team. If he doesn't, he's young enough that you should be able to move him to another team who think they can revitalize his production. There are win-now teams who can use a stretch 4 like Lauri where he can be a 3rd/4th option in the starting lineup with guys who can handle (Jimmy's Heat comes to mind).

The big thing about Jimmy was that he was improving and adding skills to his game. When he was up for his contract, it was reasonable to assume that he would continue to do so.

Lauri hasn't done this and just had his worst year as a pro. I'm not sure its very safe to project that he will change that. Its not like his preseason lit the world on fire.

I'm not so sure that there are as many fans of the big stretch 4 as before. People want ballhandlers everywhere now. The stretch 4 is soooo 2010. Quite frankly, shooting 35% from 3 is kind of a minimum qualification to play the 4 nowadays. Lauri's defense is going to scare away a lot of teams but I'm sure if he was on the open market some team would give him a huge offer.

[Stratmaster]

I have seen a few people make this statement, but who are the MLE comps for Lauri? I don’t think it can be pure numbers based since Lauri outperforms MLE players stats-wise.

You may be able to make an impact case, but that’s hard to measure plus those same MLE guys often take less money to play for a contender.

The MLEs this year were

Harrell
Tristan T
Derrick Jones Jr
Ibaka
Crowder
Favors

Last year
Al-Farouk Aminu
George Hill
Tyus Jones

From your list, outside of Favors, Tyus, and Jones Jr., I'd take all of them and add the following for players I'd consider taking over Lauri at $15-20million:

Christian Wood
Marcus Morris (last year)
Markeif Morris (last year)
Carmelo Anthony
Enes Kanter
Frank Kaminsky
Dewayne Dedmond
Ilyasova
Wilson Chandler
Skal Labissiere

And this isn't saying these players are more talented than Lauri, but if all he can be counted on is to hit some spot up jumpers (not consistently) then I think we can use that money to better use and still get comparable production out of those players.

Did you watch the final PS game?

I did. I also watched the other 170 regular season games he played. Surely you aren't saying we should base the extension decision on 1 pre-season game?

[sco]

Is the extension deadline midnight?

[League Circles]

It's not the amount of a potential Lauri extension that is the inherent problem. It's the years of commitment. I mean, sure, maybe he's theoretically worth, idk, 15-20 million "per year". BUT, signing him now to a 4 year extension for that, in our situation, would be INSANE. A 1+1 deal with team option on year 2 is the only thing that makes any sense that he might agree to, though IIRC an extension now must be at least 3 years.....