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DALLAS Struggles - Analysis

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DALLAS Struggles - Analysis 

Post#1 » by BlueSan » Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:11 pm

[So I decided I'll start writing more about this and let us first start with a couple of statistical facts I went to check for Dallas as a whole

Let us start With Chapter number 1 - HUSTLE

Hustle is an analytical category, where you measure player's contribution to the game with lots of smaller things such as setting blocks , deflections, loose balls recovered and so on...
And since to start the season off we were hearing about other teams playing tough and our need to toughen up I think this is a good place to start.
This will be a long road, as we can check many things ahead but without further ado let's just jump into it

1) DEFLECTIONS

- So players deflecting balls, let us see how many times Dallas players are actually altering ball paths. This one is a good indicator of the following few things

a) How much space a team/players are giving their opponents
b) Players concentration levels
c) Following the flow of the play
d) Proactive defense (meaning guessing passes are going to happen and snapping on them)
e) Active hands
f) Defensive tenacity = aka HUSTLE itself

So it is not just strictly about the HUSTLE but about many things and will give us some inside also in how Coach Rick wants the team to operate.

Out of 412 players eligable to be checked for this (have seen some playing time) Dallas has the following:

53. place -> James Johnson = 2,3 deflections / game
58. place -> DFS = 2,3 deflections / game
80. place -> Luka Dončič = 2,0 deflections / game
102. place -> Dwight Powell = 1,8 deflections / game
109. place -> Josh Richardson = 1,8 deflections / game

I will give you an example of a team that does this well:
CLEVELAND

1. place -> Larry Nance Jr. = 6,8 deflections / game
5. place -> Drummond = 4,8 deflections / game
25. place -> Isaac Okoro = 3,0 deflections / game
68. place -> Collin Sexton = 2,0 deflections / game
top 100 also Windler and Mcgee

Cleveland is currently 3/1 coincidence? Maybe, but deflections are definitely one of the reasons that helps a lot.

Check out Dallas Defense. From occasional ZONE DEFENSE they will try = like against the Lakers to the general way how they defend and type of players they have. All of it tells you that Dallas is not one of the better teams on deflections and the way they set up on defense and give space to opponents will further on disable that.

See you next time when we check another aspect of the game.
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Re: DALLAS Struggles - Analysis 

Post#2 » by JD45 » Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:58 pm

Looks interesting. What's the source data for this?
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Re: DALLAS Struggles - Analysis 

Post#3 » by arkuo » Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:29 pm

You know what, I blame the green jerseys man. Somehow they'll win as much games as the last team that wore it in 1985 or 1986.
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Re: DALLAS Struggles - Analysis 

Post#4 » by Bob8 » Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:45 pm

You cannot change D. overnight, so struggling in D. should to be expected. Why the best offense in Nba is not working, is more important question. Kp being out is just a part of a problem, because Mavs were pretty good without KP or with bad Kp on the begging of last season. Normally the right answer is usually the simplest and with Mavs we should look how 40% usage player is doing. Sure Powell is bad and shots aren't falling, but does anyone really believe only that is a difference between lottery team and top 4 team in the West?
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Re: DALLAS Struggles - Analysis 

Post#5 » by Pinkyring » Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:00 pm

This isn't complicated, everytime we have played thus far was better than us from a talent standpoint except Charlotte. Our record is what it should be, now the point margins are a concern but idk what people expect, with kp healthy we're a 6th=8th seed and without him we're a lotto team. This is a Stars league not a roleplayer one. We have too much depth we should be trying to consolidate, id give anything sans luka and kp for dipo
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Re: DALLAS Struggles - Analysis 

Post#6 » by Teffer10 » Fri Jan 1, 2021 5:55 pm

One of the reasons is that the Mavs have too much invested in a part-time player.
When your 2nd best player's availability is extremely limited, you will struggle.

Luka being out of shape, young team, Rick's unconditional love for Powell, no starting caliber PF, and early tough schedule combined with KP's absence is a recipe for a 1-3 start and most likely 1-4 after tonight.

We can be thankful the Clips signed Ibaka and laid an egg the night we played them or we would easily be 0-4.
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Re: DALLAS Struggles - Analysis 

Post#7 » by Apz » Sat Jan 2, 2021 2:48 am

Teffer10 wrote:One of the reasons is that the Mavs have too much invested in a part-time player.
When your 2nd best player's availability is extremely limited, you will struggle.

Luka being out of shape, young team, Rick's unconditional love for Powell, no starting caliber PF, and early tough schedule combined with KP's absence is a recipe for a 1-3 start and most likely 1-4 after tonight.

We can be thankful the Clips signed Ibaka and laid an egg the night we played them or we would easily be 0-4.


Missed 4 games this year, guess Butler and a bunch of other players also are part time players then?
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Re: DALLAS Struggles - Analysis 

Post#8 » by Mr B » Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:23 pm

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Re: DALLAS Struggles - Analysis 

Post#9 » by HMFFL » Mon Feb 1, 2021 5:07 am

I will post this here and not create a new topic since this thread seems fitting. Cuban is absolutely delusional if he believes the roster is good.

Cuban: Post-COVID, 'In Crunch Time' Mavs Will Contend

"We are going to grind,'' Cuban said on Twitter in response to a Mavs fan's concerns. "We will get through this. We have a good team. ... Come crunch time, we will be there.''

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/nba/mavericks/.amp/news/mark-cuban-post-covid-in-crunch-time-dallas-mavs-will-contend

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Re: DALLAS Struggles - Analysis 

Post#10 » by HMFFL » Tue Feb 2, 2021 12:49 am

Brad Townsend: Asked about the tough January schedule and home-heavy February schedule, Carlisle says “Nobody gives a s***” about looking way back or well ahead. Says Mavs need to focus on the road right in front of them, stay in the moment.

 

– via Twitter townbrad



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Re: DALLAS Struggles - Analysis 

Post#11 » by BlueSan » Fri Feb 5, 2021 7:49 pm

CHAPTER 2 - COMING FULL CIRCLE

Guys I haven't done the second one for this thread, cause honestly speaking it is hard to make the effort to do it. It is hard. But never the less this time around I am going to try and share what I am seeing, some things I have taken a closer look at, and in the end, basically, share my opinion about what is happening.

This time around we will be talking about 3 things specifically.

1st - Golden State's game and - Small ball philosophy
2nd - Zone Defence
3rd - Kristaps Porzingis


And we will connect it all by the end of this post. So how are those 3 things connected and what is happening with the Dallas Mavs.

Let us jump right into it.

1st let us start with Explaining the concept of Small Ball basketball the Golden State plays.
Many of you have heard of it, know in general what it means, but what I am going to talk about is the main and general principle of how it works, or rather what the coaching staff the GMs are planning when they are trying to implement it and why some teams are willing to base their entire game around it and strategize with it to win games.

It is not just about making sure you have the players who can stretch the defense and ultimately cause you to have big guys who are ill equipt to deal with them on the defensive end.


Let us start with the following.

The average number of FGA/ game in the NBA is slowly but surely going up. Main reason being the quicker tempo with which the teams play.
To give you an example:
2010 - 2011 (season) - 81,2 FGA / game
2011 - 2012 (season) - 81,4 FGA / game
2012 - 2013 (season) - 82,0 FGA / game
2013 - 2014 (season) - 83,0 FGA / game
2014 - 2015 (season) - 83,6 FGA / game
2015 - 2016 (season) - 84,6 FGA / game
2016 - 2017 (season) - 85,4 FGA / game
2017 - 2018 (season) - 86,1 FGA / game
2018 - 2019 (season) - 89,2 FGA / game
2019 - 2020 (season) - 88,8 FGA / game
2020 - 2021 (season) - 88,5 FGA / game

The faster the game = better it is suited for players who do not drag their 7,0 + bodies around.

So on average teams are making almost 90 FGA / game.
Let us just for the argument's sake say 45 of those attempts are - 3pt shots and 45 are 2 pt shots.
If a team is hitting 3pts with a 40% clip that means they hit 18/45 which results in scoring 54 points
If equally they take 45 2pt shots with a clip of 60% that will also result into 54 points
So what is the point?

Well as you can see basic math tells you that 40% 3pt shot = equals 60% 2pt shot cause you know 3pts = 1,5x 2pts and 60% = 1,5 x 40%.

So all clear...
Well here let us go into a bit "deeper" math - strategically speaking
Here are the data for season 2020 / 2021
1) We know Teams shoot 88,5 FGA / game on average
2) We know they shoot 35 (3pt FGA) on average
3) We know they shoot 22,1 FTA on average
4) We know they have a 3pt FG% at 36,8% on average
5) We know they have a FT% at 77,2% on average
6) We know teams score 111,6 PTs on average / game

So from these data we need to get the average 2pt FG% that teams are shooting. Let us check

1)
35 (3pts FGA) x 3 (points) = 105 points x 36,8% 3pt FG% = 38,64 points / game (from 3pt shots)
2)
22,1 (FTA) x 1 (point) = 22,1 x 77,2% FT% = 17,06 pts (from FTs)
3)
So the rest of the points come from 2PTs = which is 111,6 - 17,06 - 38,64 = 55,9 points
4)
Because 88,5 FGA - 35 FGA (3pts) = 53,5 FGA => means 53,5 FGA are 2 points shots
5)
And if we put 53,5 x 2pts x 52,25% = 55,9 points we basically know that 52,25% is the average 2PT FG%

So again. Blue, why is this even important what the heck is your point? Well, we just saw that if you shoot an equal amount of 3PTs in a game to 2pt attempts that in order to score equal amount of TOTAL points the ratio needs to be something like 40% vs 60% (3pts vs 2pts)
If the ratio is 36,8% vs 52,25% the following happens:
- With 10 shots at 36,8% (3pt attempts) = 11,04 points
- With 10 shots at 52,25% (2pt Attempts) =10,45 points
and if you increase the sample to lets say 40x 3 pt shots you get:
40 shots at 36,8% (3pt attempts) = 44,16 points
40 shots at 52,25% (2pt attempts) = 41,80 points

So logically the difference in PTs starts increasing.
So back to the small ball. If you build a team with good shooters you can effectively game plan in the following manner

1) I will make sure I have a team that can create good looks from 3pt and shoot at a 40% + clip
2) I will make sure I will outrun and opposing team and cause hell for their big guys, by lining up small (remember fast tempo game) Thus make it difficult or impossible for big guys to follow the tempo of the game in turn creating more fast breaks, open looks etc...
3) My "small ball" centers and rest of the players need to just make sure the 2'pt shots are protected well enough. So in other words it is fine if 2PT shot's % of the opposing team increases for a certain margin, our 3pt shooting and fast pace will make up for it.

This leads to the following. If you are playing Dallas and Dallas isn't even abusing Golden State under the rim (isnt increasing the frequency and % of their 2 pt shots and Golden state starts hitting 3pts at an even higher clip... well then the result is yesterday's game = nightmare.



So how does this connect to the other 2 points for our analysis?

2) ZONE DEFENSE

I will try to keep the second and third segments short for those heroes who are actually reading this. Hats off to you guys.
Zone defense has a simple philosophy behind it although executions and uses can vary and be quite complex. But in its basic it is used to stop other teams from getting under the rim at will, it will however expose you on the perimeter or rather 3 pt shooting.
That is the most basic principle behind it.
What teams will often do is play zone, make you hit 3 pts and dare you to beat them that way. And if you can prove to them you can in fact do that, usually, teams will exit zone and go back to the man vs man coverage.
So the question of the Day. WHY DID DALLAS play ZONE vs Golden State? How does it make sense based on all of the above?

Is Rick Carlise so stupid to not know even the above basic principle of basketball?
No I do not think so. I think it would be arrogant of us to think that. Foolish even.
So why does he do it? Does he think that Golden state would absolutely kill Dallas in the paint if not playing Zone?
While this is always a second alternative and the principle basically says, pick a lesser poison, I do not believe that is the case also.
But there is one other... the third possible explanation...

Well, you see... what I said above about the ZONE DEFENSE is true, but there are other things ZONE DEFENSE does and is used for.
ZONE DEFENSE is also used to HIDE people on the defensive end.
I will quickly share a rather primitive example of this.
Let us say Dallas has 4 NBA quality players but the 5th guy is some random elderly person from the street.
Will you put grandpa in a man vs man coverage? No, you will hide him with the zone, where switching is easy and in general the team just clogs the paint and under the basket area to simplify the concept. Forcing you to hit your shots from distance.

So am I saying Dallas is hiding people on the defense and that that is the reason for it? Yes I am. And who is Dallas hiding? Quick answer is not just one person, but if we connect the three main bullet points of today's analysis one of them is definitely...


3) KRISTAPS PORZINGIS

Kristaps Porzingis is known as a good rim protector, especially because of his size, length, relative quickness etc...
But as you might have noticed, lately Kristap Porzingis is anything but that. He is a big liability on the defense.
And this is not just his perimeter defense, where usually even in a man to man coverage he will drop deep but KP also has problems in the p & r, and teams know this, as they have been exposing it. (look at Utah's game)
Partially it is his mobility which is worse than it was. Partially it is his fear factor and shying away from contact but partially is also the fact that KP never was extremely good at those things.

Hopefully in the future we can take a close look at this with a couple of video clips. Hopefully we can take a look at other things which are also connected too all of the above. (Like teams going under screens when defending Dallas etc...)
But basically yeah this was the 2nd analysis of Dallas and the problems this team is facing.



For anyone who read this. You truely are a champ :D
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Re: DALLAS Struggles - Analysis 

Post#12 » by wolfram » Fri Feb 5, 2021 9:34 pm

Good work. So basically... Mavs stink at defense? :D
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Re: DALLAS Struggles - Analysis 

Post#13 » by Bluelabel24 » Sat Feb 6, 2021 6:11 am

thing that pisses me off the most is lack of effort and hustle. Shooting comes and goes, i mean even the best shooter like Curry will have consecutive off shooting nights but effort and hustle on defense is something you can control every night.
i suggest we take a page out of the jazz and snyders approach. if he sees you lacking effort out there he will pull you out and play the backup. for those who's intrigued i suggest watch a couple of jazz games and observe their defense.
We rank among last at rebounding and 3pt shooting.. But if theres a stat for it we would probably rank last at effort and hustle too lol.
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Re: DALLAS Struggles - Analysis 

Post#14 » by BlueSan » Sat Feb 6, 2021 8:06 am

The funny thing about it is that Zone is supposed to help you with defensive rebounds as well :D
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Re: DALLAS Struggles - Analysis 

Post#15 » by Mr B » Sat Feb 6, 2021 7:19 pm

I’ve defended Carlisle when hear or see people trash him, and I still believe he’s a great coach. However, maybe it is him? I do believe that if he actually left Dallas the line of teams wanting to sign him will be around the building. He’s be the best coaching candidate on the market and would very likely end up coaching his new to a title (or close to it). But again, I’m starting to think that maybe it is him.

If you replace him though, who do you get? Mark would obviously include Luka in the decision. So I’m thinking it would be someone with ties to Real Madrid.


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Re: DALLAS Struggles - Analysis 

Post#16 » by Archx » Sat Feb 6, 2021 7:42 pm

Mr B wrote:I’ve defended Carlisle when hear or see people trash him, and I still believe he’s a great coach. However, maybe it is him? I do believe that if he actually left Dallas the line of teams wanting to sign him will be around the building. He’s be the best coaching candidate on the market and would very likely end up coaching his new to a title (or close to it). But again, I’m starting to think that maybe it is him.

If you replace him though, who do you get? Mark would obviously include Luka in the decision. So I’m thinking it would be someone with ties to Real Madrid.


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Who would come to coach from Real Madrid? There is no such candidate. And if Mark includes Luka in coaching decision, i guarantee you he will only give him one name and he has no ties to Real.

But Mavs don't need a coaching change right now, Rick is working with what he has on his disposale. Tim said on podcast when Luka is on the floor Mavs score 113 points per 100 poss. When KP is on the floor without Luka, Mavs have leagues worst 99 points per 100 poss.
So, they need to find either better players or simply they have to start making shots. Rick and Luka are basically doing a good job at getting shooters open but they are simply missing, that is not Rick's fault.

Defense on the other hand is often just a matter of effort. If Rick lost his locker room, that could also be up for a debate but i don't think firing coach would do anything good right now.
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Re: DALLAS Struggles - Analysis 

Post#17 » by Mr B » Sat Feb 6, 2021 10:45 pm

Archx wrote:
Mr B wrote:I’ve defended Carlisle when hear or see people trash him, and I still believe he’s a great coach. However, maybe it is him? I do believe that if he actually left Dallas the line of teams wanting to sign him will be around the building. He’s be the best coaching candidate on the market and would very likely end up coaching his new to a title (or close to it). But again, I’m starting to think that maybe it is him.

If you replace him though, who do you get? Mark would obviously include Luka in the decision. So I’m thinking it would be someone with ties to Real Madrid.


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Who would come to coach from Real Madrid? There is no such candidate. And if Mark includes Luka in coaching decision, i guarantee you he will only give him one name and he has no ties to Real.

But Mavs don't need a coaching change right now, Rick is working with what he has on his disposale. Tim said on podcast when Luka is on the floor Mavs score 113 points per 100 poss. When KP is on the floor without Luka, Mavs have leagues worst 99 points per 100 poss.
So, they need to find either better players or simply they have to start making shots. Rick and Luka are basically doing a good job at getting shooters open but they are simply missing, that is not Rick's fault.

Defense on the other hand is often just a matter of effort. If Rick lost his locker room, that could also be up for a debate but i don't think firing coach would do anything good right now.

Who’s the name? And I don’t mean fire Carlisle right now. I talking about if the losing continues for the whole season. If that did happen you might have to seriously consider a change. I don’t know anything about the coaches from Real Madrid but I can promise you that if Luka wanted a specific guy there’s a very good Mark would get him.

I’m interested in who the 1 name you think Luka would give him.


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Re: DALLAS Struggles - Analysis 

Post#18 » by Bob8 » Sat Feb 6, 2021 11:11 pm

Mr B wrote:
Archx wrote:
Mr B wrote:I’ve defended Carlisle when hear or see people trash him, and I still believe he’s a great coach. However, maybe it is him? I do believe that if he actually left Dallas the line of teams wanting to sign him will be around the building. He’s be the best coaching candidate on the market and would very likely end up coaching his new to a title (or close to it). But again, I’m starting to think that maybe it is him.

If you replace him though, who do you get? Mark would obviously include Luka in the decision. So I’m thinking it would be someone with ties to Real Madrid.


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Who would come to coach from Real Madrid? There is no such candidate. And if Mark includes Luka in coaching decision, i guarantee you he will only give him one name and he has no ties to Real.

But Mavs don't need a coaching change right now, Rick is working with what he has on his disposale. Tim said on podcast when Luka is on the floor Mavs score 113 points per 100 poss. When KP is on the floor without Luka, Mavs have leagues worst 99 points per 100 poss.
So, they need to find either better players or simply they have to start making shots. Rick and Luka are basically doing a good job at getting shooters open but they are simply missing, that is not Rick's fault.

Defense on the other hand is often just a matter of effort. If Rick lost his locker room, that could also be up for a debate but i don't think firing coach would do anything good right now.

Who’s the name? And I don’t mean fire Carlisle right now. I talking about if the losing continues for the whole season. If that did happen you might have to seriously consider a change. I don’t know anything about the coaches from Real Madrid but I can promise you that if Luka wanted a specific guy there’s a very good Mark would get him.

I’m interested in who the 1 name you think Luka would give him.


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He probably means Kokoskov.
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Re: DALLAS Struggles - Analysis 

Post#19 » by Archx » Sat Feb 6, 2021 11:34 pm

Bob8 wrote:
Mr B wrote:
Archx wrote:
Who would come to coach from Real Madrid? There is no such candidate. And if Mark includes Luka in coaching decision, i guarantee you he will only give him one name and he has no ties to Real.

But Mavs don't need a coaching change right now, Rick is working with what he has on his disposale. Tim said on podcast when Luka is on the floor Mavs score 113 points per 100 poss. When KP is on the floor without Luka, Mavs have leagues worst 99 points per 100 poss.
So, they need to find either better players or simply they have to start making shots. Rick and Luka are basically doing a good job at getting shooters open but they are simply missing, that is not Rick's fault.

Defense on the other hand is often just a matter of effort. If Rick lost his locker room, that could also be up for a debate but i don't think firing coach would do anything good right now.

Who’s the name? And I don’t mean fire Carlisle right now. I talking about if the losing continues for the whole season. If that did happen you might have to seriously consider a change. I don’t know anything about the coaches from Real Madrid but I can promise you that if Luka wanted a specific guy there’s a very good Mark would get him.

I’m interested in who the 1 name you think Luka would give him.


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He probably means Kokoskov.


Yeah like i mentiond earlier. Kokoskov would actually be quite a good candidate for this team. Mavs have exactly what is needed for Igor's offense. It was extremely unfair how PHX treated him and i think he deserves a second chance. Like MrB said, if this season doesn't work and if by some miracle Rick gets fired, i see no reason why not giving Kokoskov a try? I also believe KP would absolutely LOVE his motion offense and would do much better.
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Re: DALLAS Struggles - Analysis 

Post#20 » by Bob8 » Sat Feb 6, 2021 11:47 pm

Archx wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
Mr B wrote:Who’s the name? And I don’t mean fire Carlisle right now. I talking about if the losing continues for the whole season. If that did happen you might have to seriously consider a change. I don’t know anything about the coaches from Real Madrid but I can promise you that if Luka wanted a specific guy there’s a very good Mark would get him.

I’m interested in who the 1 name you think Luka would give him.


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He probably means Kokoskov.


Yeah like i mentiond earlier. Kokoskov would actually be quite a good candidate for this team. Mavs have exactly what is needed for Igor's offense. It was extremely unfair how PHX treated him and i think he deserves a second chance. Like MrB said, if this season doesn't work and if by some miracle Rick gets fired, i see no reason why not giving Kokoskov a try? I also believe KP would absolutely LOVE his motion offense and would do much better.


Funny enough, more than this Mavs team, Suns would have been perfect team for Kokoskov, if they would had drafted Luka. Booker and Luka together are hard to stop in offense, M. Bridges perfect player to play with them. Mavs are lacking 1 good creator for Kokoskov system. KP is useless in any kind of system until he begins to play good D.

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