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Sophmores, 2020-21 – Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Waters, Tacko

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Re: Sophmores, 2020-21 – Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Waters, Tacko, Green 

Post#721 » by Squigglepuffin » Mon Jan 4, 2021 5:08 am

SmartWentCrazy wrote:
jfs1000d wrote:This is getting ridiculous. You can’t draft players and then they give u nothing.

Langford, Nesmith, edwards, semi, grant do not give us enough.

Tacko and Waters are 2 ways. I can’t complaint. But Edwards shouldn’t be on roster.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Our returns from the last two drafts have been pathetic. 2 lotto picks, 3 other FRPs and not one guaranteed long term rotation piece. Thats quite poor.


I was thinking last night that we should have a much better bench than we do now - and we would if our front office were able to draft better the last two drafts.

I haven't given up on Romeo just yet - I will say that.

In 2019 we had #14, #20, #22 and...
In 2020 we had #14, #26, and #30.

And yet our bench is weak. Really weak.

Out of SIX first rounders we have:

- Langford
- Grant Williams (I will never understand why we even considered drafting him)
- Edwards (again even at the time of the draft it was obvious he wasn't a good player)
- Nesmith
- Pritchard
- Two future second rounders

I have defended Danny for a long time. I still think he is one of the very best GM's in the league at making trades.

Recently though I think his inability to draft well (or at least making poor choices these past 2 drafts) will lead to us being a good team with two stars in Tatum and Brown that will eventually come close to but won't win a championship with us and they'll eventually be traded.

Basically we'll be the 2019-20 Rockets, the late 2000's Dwight, Nelson, Lewis, Hedo Orlando Magic.

I hope there aren't Celtics fans out there who still try to justify the Grant Williams pick.

There was a thread in which someone asked those criticising Danny's drafting this year who they would pick with #14, #26, and #30. We should do it every year.

At this point I am just frustrated at the lack of real depth we have on the bench/how much deeper our bench would be with better drafting.

A lot of wasted opportunities.
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Re: Sophmores, 2020-21 – Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Waters, Tacko, Green 

Post#722 » by snowman » Mon Jan 4, 2021 6:21 pm

Of the last 2 drafts this is the order I ranks Danny's picks:

1) Pritchard
2) Langford
3) Nesmith
4) G Will
5) Waters
6) Edwards
7) Mader

Of these, The top 3 are the only ones I really see making a difference. I can see honestly Pritchard being our Kemba replacement in a few years. Langford and Nesmith in a year or 2 will be deadly coming off the bench behind / supporting Tatum and Brown.

One of the posts asked who we would have picked instead of the ones Danny picked. I said all along the I wanted Sadiq Bet at 14. He is currently hitting 48% of his 3's while starting for the Pistons. I wanted Bane with the 26th, but I'm glad Pritchard was drafted. I would not have traded the 30th, and would have picked Bane with it. He is hitting 50% of his 3's and avg. 9.5 a game. The reasoning to trade the pick was said to be financial. However, Bane is making 1,613,700, while Javonte Green is making 1,517,981. Green could have been released since his salary is not guaranteed. The difference is only 98.719, or about what we pay Demetrius Jackson NOT to play here.
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Re: Sophmores, 2020-21 – Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Waters, Tacko, Green 

Post#723 » by DarkAzcura » Mon Jan 4, 2021 6:51 pm

Squigglepuffin wrote:
SmartWentCrazy wrote:
jfs1000d wrote:This is getting ridiculous. You can’t draft players and then they give u nothing.

Langford, Nesmith, edwards, semi, grant do not give us enough.

Tacko and Waters are 2 ways. I can’t complaint. But Edwards shouldn’t be on roster.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Our returns from the last two drafts have been pathetic. 2 lotto picks, 3 other FRPs and not one guaranteed long term rotation piece. Thats quite poor.


I was thinking last night that we should have a much better bench than we do now - and we would if our front office were able to draft better the last two drafts.

I haven't given up on Romeo just yet - I will say that.

In 2019 we had #14, #20, #22 and...
In 2020 we had #14, #26, and #30.

And yet our bench is weak. Really weak.

Out of SIX first rounders we have:

- Langford
- Grant Williams (I will never understand why we even considered drafting him)
- Edwards (again even at the time of the draft it was obvious he wasn't a good player)
- Nesmith
- Pritchard
- Two future second rounders

I have defended Danny for a long time. I still think he is one of the very best GM's in the league at making trades.

Recently though I think his inability to draft well (or at least making poor choices these past 2 drafts) will lead to us being a good team with two stars in Tatum and Brown that will eventually come close to but won't win a championship with us and they'll eventually be traded.

Basically we'll be the 2019-20 Rockets, the late 2000's Dwight, Nelson, Lewis, Hedo Orlando Magic.

I hope there aren't Celtics fans out there who still try to justify the Grant Williams pick.

There was a thread in which someone asked those criticising Danny's drafting this year who they would pick with #14, #26, and #30. We should do it every year.

At this point I am just frustrated at the lack of real depth we have on the bench/how much deeper our bench would be with better drafting.

A lot of wasted opportunities.


If Langford, Nesmith, and Payton all turn into role players who can consistently contribute on winning teams legitimately, 50/50 is actually really good to be honest. Gonna take a while to know though, and Payton may be the only one who turns out for all we know.
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Re: Sophmores, 2020-21 – Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Waters, Tacko, Green 

Post#724 » by DarkAzcura » Mon Jan 4, 2021 7:00 pm

Forgot to add to my last post, but regardless of these picks working out or not, I would had rather traded 4 of them for some legit role players/depth. It is what it is.
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Re: Sophmores, 2020-21 – Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Waters, Tacko, Green 

Post#725 » by Squigglepuffin » Fri Jan 8, 2021 1:47 am

DarkAzcura wrote:
Squigglepuffin wrote:
In 2019 we had #14, #20, #22 and...
In 2020 we had #14, #26, and #30.

And yet our bench is weak. Really weak.

Out of SIX first rounders we have:

- Langford
- Grant Williams (I will never understand why we even considered drafting him)
- Edwards (again even at the time of the draft it was obvious he wasn't a good player)
- Nesmith
- Pritchard
- Two future second rounders


If Langford, Nesmith, and Payton all turn into role players who can consistently contribute on winning teams legitimately,50/50 is actually really good to be honest.Gonna take a while to know though, and Payton may be the only one who turns out for all we know.


Do you mean if only three of those six first rounders work out?

The commonly accepted narrative that late first round picks and all second round picks are difficult to hit on (although I understand the logic) is a frustrating narrative bc every year during the draft it's annoying to see in real time players who are pretty obviously going to be good start falling, getting passed over again and again by teams - then usually a few years later they get regarded as "steals".

Imo it's actually easier to hit on late first rounders and most second rounders than it is to hit on high lottery picks because most of the time the difference in talent in players is very obvious. It's like seeing Shaq standing in a room of average sized people. Most of the time it's really obvious.

I give Danny credit for trying to select Reggie Jackson in the 2011 draft. I hate the fact that we didn't draft Jimmy Butler or Chandler Parsons (both of whom at the time I believed were obviously going to be good and the best available instead of JuJuan Johnson).

I give him credit in 2012 for selecting Sullinger (who I also would have selected). At the time I hated (and still do now) that we selected Fab Melo over two players I thought were the easiest selections to make in both Draymond Green and Jae Crowder.

When we selected James Young I was soooooooooo disappointed and exasperated because I knew before the draft, before he even put on a Celtics jersey, that he was 110% without question going to bust. I wanted Clint Capela believe it or not (Jokic was not really on my radar - I'm not perfect :) ).

2015 I remember specifically, as it was happening, being so frustrated that we didn't choose Montrezl Harrell in the late 1st and then being more annoyed when he was selected just before the early 2nd rounder we had - because it was glaringly obvious he was the BPA.

Credit where credit is due though, I didn't like the Pritchard pick. I'm okay with it now. I didn't watch enough of him. I still think Tyler Bey and especially Nate Hinton will, barring injury, have good NBA careers.

Personally I think 5 out of the 6 first rounders would have been pretty easy to hit on. The only exception I make is the 2020 #14 pick.

If we have a bunch of really good player development coaches on the Celtics staff (who knows if we do) I would have selected Zeke Nnaji (I think he can be good but as of yet just hasn't been taught how to play basketball properly) but if the player development staff are just average (who knows) then I would have probably selected Nesmith too so I can't truly hate on the front office for that pick :)

Forgive me for the wall of text but I am a passionate Celtics fan :)
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Re: Sophmores, 2020-21 – Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Waters, Tacko, Green 

Post#726 » by DarkAzcura » Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:14 pm

Squigglepuffin wrote:
DarkAzcura wrote:
Squigglepuffin wrote:
In 2019 we had #14, #20, #22 and...
In 2020 we had #14, #26, and #30.

And yet our bench is weak. Really weak.

Out of SIX first rounders we have:

- Langford
- Grant Williams (I will never understand why we even considered drafting him)
- Edwards (again even at the time of the draft it was obvious he wasn't a good player)
- Nesmith
- Pritchard
- Two future second rounders


If Langford, Nesmith, and Payton all turn into role players who can consistently contribute on winning teams legitimately,50/50 is actually really good to be honest.Gonna take a while to know though, and Payton may be the only one who turns out for all we know.


Do you mean if only three of those six first rounders work out?

The commonly accepted narrative that late first round picks and all second round picks are difficult to hit on (although I understand the logic) is a frustrating narrative bc every year during the draft it's annoying to see in real time players who are pretty obviously going to be good start falling, getting passed over again and again by teams - then usually a few years later they get regarded as "steals".

Imo it's actually easier to hit on late first rounders and most second rounders than it is to hit on high lottery picks because most of the time the difference in talent in players is very obvious. It's like seeing Shaq standing in a room of average sized people. Most of the time it's really obvious.

I give Danny credit for trying to select Reggie Jackson in the 2011 draft. I hate the fact that we didn't draft Jimmy Butler or Chandler Parsons (both of whom at the time I believed were obviously going to be good and the best available instead of JuJuan Johnson).

I give him credit in 2012 for selecting Sullinger (who I also would have selected). At the time I hated (and still do now) that we selected Fab Melo over two players I thought were the easiest selections to make in both Draymond Green and Jae Crowder.

When we selected James Young I was soooooooooo disappointed and exasperated because I knew before the draft, before he even put on a Celtics jersey, that he was 110% without question going to bust. I wanted Clint Capela believe it or not (Jokic was not really on my radar - I'm not perfect :) ).

2015 I remember specifically, as it was happening, being so frustrated that we didn't choose Montrezl Harrell in the late 1st and then being more annoyed when he was selected just before the early 2nd rounder we had - because it was glaringly obvious he was the BPA.

Credit where credit is due though, I didn't like the Pritchard pick. I'm okay with it now. I didn't watch enough of him. I still think Tyler Bey and especially Nate Hinton will, barring injury, have good NBA careers.

Personally I think 5 out of the 6 first rounders would have been pretty easy to hit on. The only exception I make is the 2020 #14 pick.

If we have a bunch of really good player development coaches on the Celtics staff (who knows if we do) I would have selected Zeke Nnaji (I think he can be good but as of yet just hasn't been taught how to play basketball properly) but if the player development staff are just average (who knows) then I would have probably selected Nesmith too so I can't truly hate on the front office for that pick :)

Forgive me for the wall of text but I am a passionate Celtics fan :)


Honestly don’t think it is a narrative. Based on data, it is kinda just true. If it were easier to hit on first rounders, we would have a lot more players in this league and a lot more teams because we would have an overload of talent.

Anyway, I would just point to this link:

https://towardsdatascience.com/which-nba-teams-are-best-at-drafting-4131eb843dc1

Looks at the past 10 NBA drafts and ranks the best drafting teams based on data. Boston is 9. I don’t think Ainge is an incredible drafter, never really went there, but I have always felt he was well above average. I remember in the past people used to be obsessed with how “good” the Spurs were at drafting, but I always wondered if people ever pulled up their draft record year to year. So much trash and so much waste. Sometimes it is just perception.

I will say, though, that if Payton ends up being the only one that works out of the 6, then that’s not a great look. I would like to see at least 2 of them work out. 3 out of 6 would be amazing and a higher success rate than 90% of the league at that point of the draft.

https://sportsanalytics.berkeley.edu/articles/trash-or-treasure.html

This graph looks at how many players drafted between 5 and 10 years ago are still actively playing in the NBA. More than 75% of lottery picks are still on an NBA roster, although it’s important to note that there are still many high draft picks that don’t pan out in the NBA. Even recent top-2 picks like Anthony Bennett (1st overall in 2013), Derrick Williams (2nd overall in 2011), and Hasheem Thabeet (2nd overall in 2009) have busted spectacularly and found themselves out of the league.

Slightly less than half of non-lottery firsts are still in the league, while approximately one-fifth of second round picks from the specified timeframe are still playing. So while second round picks sometimes get tossed around as if they have no value, teams still have a chance of finding decent contributors, and a small chance of finding a star.


Then take a look at this analysis, which looked to see how many non-lottery first rounders are even actively in the league after 5-10 years. Only around ~45% of non-lottery first round picks were even in the league anymore. We aren’t even talking about “good” players. This is a low bar here. We are talking about are they active in the league or not, which includes deep bench players so of these 45%, the percentage of actual solid contributors would be even lower. If this looked at players drafted 20-30, that would probably be much lower as only 20% of second round picks were still actively in the league.

So in any given draft, on average, only ~7 of the players drafted 15-30 will still be in the league after 5 years, and a much smaller number of those are probably actually contributing night in, night out as high level role players or in a rarer circumstance, all star level. For second rounders, if only 20% survive, then that is 6 out of 30 players drafted, and again, how many of those 6 are actually high level contributors. Probably not a lot.

So if only 7 of 16 players are surviving in the league let alone actually heavily contributing, I would say it is incredibly difficult and would be amazing statistically to hit on 5 of 6 late first rounders. Overall, based on this data, only ~13 of the 46 players drafted after 14 survive as “active” NBA players in any given year. I would estimate, generously, that only 70% of those 13 are actually solid contributors. That would mean your average hit rate outside the lottery is 28%, and if you assume only 70-80% of those 13 actually end up as good contributors, then your hit rate is closer to 20%.
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Re: Sophmores, 2020-21 – Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Waters, Tacko, Green 

Post#727 » by Squigglepuffin » Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:28 pm

DarkAzcura wrote:
Squigglepuffin wrote:
DarkAzcura wrote:
If Langford, Nesmith, and Payton all turn into role players who can consistently contribute on winning teams legitimately,50/50 is actually really good to be honest.Gonna take a while to know though, and Payton may be the only one who turns out for all we know.


Do you mean if only three of those six first rounders work out?


Honestly don’t think it is a narrative. Based on data, it is kinda just true. If it were easier to hit on first rounders, we would have a lot more players in this league and a lot more teams because we would have an overload of talent.

Anyway, I would just point to this link:

https://towardsdatascience.com/which-nba-teams-are-best-at-drafting-4131eb843dc1

https://sportsanalytics.berkeley.edu/articles/trash-or-treasure.html


Slightly less than half of non-lottery firsts are still in the league, while approximately one-fifth of second round picks from the specified timeframe are still playing. So while second round picks sometimes get tossed around as if they have no value, teams still have a chance of finding decent contributors, and a small chance of finding a star.


So if only 7 of 16 players are surviving in the league let alone actually heavily contributing, I would say it is incredibly difficult and would be amazing statistically to hit on 5 of 6 late first rounders.


Thanks for putting so much effort into your response. I really appreciate it. It was really interesting.

Generally speaking I'm aware that IRL the hit rate is low. In the past I've looked at previous drafts and I've noticed how few players in the lottery work out, and it's clear to everyone how few players in the second round stay in the league. Statistically it's undeniable - and thanks for providing those links.

I wasn't as articulate as I could have been.

I was moreso expressing my annoyance at the inability of front offices in general (whose full time job revolves around the game of basketball) to recognise talented players especially at then end of the first round when it is clear (at least to me butalso to a bunch of other people) who they are most of the time.

Danny Ainge in particular has forgotten more about basketball than I (and most people) will ever know. I'm just a guy who loves basketball. I love the draft.

A while ago I was going through previous drafts just out of curiosity and I realised that usually in every draft there is a player drafted at #10 or later that turns out to be an all-star.

There are players in almost every draft that get drafted at the latter end of the first round who become pretty good players. In almost every draft there are future role players that go undrafted.

I'm not perfect, no one is. I just hate seeing it happen in real time when especially at the end of the first round and even in the second round the good players left worth drafting are usually obvious and much easier to identify because the players around them still available in the draft are so bad.

The closer to #1 a pick is the closer the gap in talent is (because you have the entire draft class to choose from) and often the harder it is to identify who will most likely end up being the best player from that draft class five years down the track. However imo the closer to the 30th pick and often at the 60th a pick is the easier it is to identify who the BPA or BPAs are.

Yet somehow those throughout the NBA whose full-time job it is to identify talented players don't realise it. That's just my opinion though and I'm definitely not infallible or a Jerry West (the GOAT NBA executive imo) :D

Does that make sense?
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Re: Sophmores, 2020-21 – Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Waters, Tacko, Green 

Post#728 » by Gomes3PC » Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:05 am

Romeo, oh Romeo, wherefore art thou Romeo?! Seriously, I would love to see this kid out there soon. His cast came off a month ago, have to imagine he's not far off from practicing.

On the others:

1. GRANT - nice improvements as a shooter, seems more comfortable pulling the trigger since his time in the bubble. I love his defense, I think he's just tough & smart - by far our best guy against Bam, for example. Was hoping he would've shown more as a passer than he has - he makes the simple plays but doesn't really get people open with his passing, if you know what I mean.

2. Edwards - waste of a roster spot, to be totally honest. If he can't beat a washed guy like Teague out for minutes, what are we doing here?

3. Waters - is what he is. At his height, he can't really be more than a 3rd PG, but if that is what he fills for us for a few years, he does that role well.

4. Tacko - honestly, I was pleasantly surprised by his time in the WAS game. His conditioning was better than expected and he played smart / within himself. I actually thought some of the mishaps were teammates not used to playing with a guy of his size. If he keeps playing those kind of minutes though in games that matter, teams will hack him to death and kill us at the FT line. If he can't get to be a passable FT shooter (55%+), all of this is just a nice experiment.
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Re: Sophmores, 2020-21 – Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Waters, Tacko, Green 

Post#729 » by DarkAzcura » Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:41 am

Squigglepuffin wrote:
DarkAzcura wrote:
Squigglepuffin wrote:
Do you mean if only three of those six first rounders work out?


Honestly don’t think it is a narrative. Based on data, it is kinda just true. If it were easier to hit on first rounders, we would have a lot more players in this league and a lot more teams because we would have an overload of talent.

Anyway, I would just point to this link:

https://towardsdatascience.com/which-nba-teams-are-best-at-drafting-4131eb843dc1

https://sportsanalytics.berkeley.edu/articles/trash-or-treasure.html


Slightly less than half of non-lottery firsts are still in the league, while approximately one-fifth of second round picks from the specified timeframe are still playing. So while second round picks sometimes get tossed around as if they have no value, teams still have a chance of finding decent contributors, and a small chance of finding a star.


So if only 7 of 16 players are surviving in the league let alone actually heavily contributing, I would say it is incredibly difficult and would be amazing statistically to hit on 5 of 6 late first rounders.


Thanks for putting so much effort into your response. I really appreciate it. It was really interesting.

Generally speaking I'm aware that IRL the hit rate is low. In the past I've looked at previous drafts and I've noticed how few players in the lottery work out, and it's clear to everyone how few players in the second round stay in the league. Statistically it's undeniable - and thanks for providing those links.

I wasn't as articulate as I could have been.

I was moreso expressing my annoyance at the inability of front offices in general (whose full time job revolves around the game of basketball) to recognise talented players especially at then end of the first round when it is clear (at least to me butalso to a bunch of other people) who they are most of the time.

Danny Ainge in particular has forgotten more about basketball than I (and most people) will ever know. I'm just a guy who loves basketball. I love the draft.

A while ago I was going through previous drafts just out of curiosity and I realised that usually in every draft there is a player drafted at #10 or later that turns out to be an all-star.

There are players in almost every draft that get drafted at the latter end of the first round who become pretty good players. In almost every draft there are future role players that go undrafted.

I'm not perfect, no one is. I just hate seeing it happen in real time when especially at the end of the first round and even in the second round the good players left worth drafting are usually obvious and much easier to identify because the players around them still available in the draft are so bad.

The closer to #1 a pick is the closer the gap in talent is (because you have the entire draft class to choose from) and often the harder it is to identify who will most likely end up being the best player from that draft class five years down the track. However imo the closer to the 30th pick and often at the 60th a pick is the easier it is to identify who the BPA or BPAs are.

Yet somehow those throughout the NBA whose full-time job it is to identify talented players don't realise it. That's just my opinion though and I'm definitely not infallible or a Jerry West (the GOAT NBA executive imo) :D

Does that make sense?


I get you, it makes sense. I will say that most of us can fall victim to revisionist history very easily, though. I can look through a draft and sometimes I’ll be shocked, but a lot of it is just the biases I form over years.

But I will say that I think teams need to find a way to evaluate BBIQ and work ethic better than they do. A lot of misses come from not snuffing that stuff out better.
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Re: Sophmores, 2020-21 – Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Waters, Tacko, Green 

Post#730 » by Fencer reregistered » Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:44 am

Calling it "six" first round picks in the last two drafts counts a pick plus the pick it was traded for as two picks.

Better to say there were "five".
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Re: Sophmores, 2020-21 – Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Waters, Tacko, Green 

Post#731 » by Squigglepuffin » Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:19 am

DarkAzcura wrote:
Squigglepuffin wrote:
DarkAzcura wrote:
Honestly don’t think it is a narrative. Based on data, it is kinda just true. If it were easier to hit on first rounders, we would have a lot more players in this league and a lot more teams because we would have an overload of talent.

Anyway, I would just point to this link:

https://towardsdatascience.com/which-nba-teams-are-best-at-drafting-4131eb843dc1

https://sportsanalytics.berkeley.edu/articles/trash-or-treasure.html



So if only 7 of 16 players are surviving in the league let alone actually heavily contributing, I would say it is incredibly difficult and would be amazing statistically to hit on 5 of 6 late first rounders.


Thanks for putting so much effort into your response. I really appreciate it. It was really interesting.

Generally speaking I'm aware that IRL the hit rate is low. In the past I've looked at previous drafts and I've noticed how few players in the lottery work out, and it's clear to everyone how few players in the second round stay in the league. Statistically it's undeniable - and thanks for providing those links.

I wasn't as articulate as I could have been.

I was moreso expressing my annoyance at the inability of front offices in general (whose full time job revolves around the game of basketball) to recognise talented players especially at then end of the first round when it is clear (at least to me butalso to a bunch of other people) who they are most of the time.

Danny Ainge in particular has forgotten more about basketball than I (and most people) will ever know. I'm just a guy who loves basketball. I love the draft.

A while ago I was going through previous drafts just out of curiosity and I realised that usually in every draft there is a player drafted at #10 or later that turns out to be an all-star.

There are players in almost every draft that get drafted at the latter end of the first round who become pretty good players. In almost every draft there are future role players that go undrafted.

I'm not perfect, no one is. I just hate seeing it happen in real time when especially at the end of the first round and even in the second round the good players left worth drafting are usually obvious and much easier to identify because the players around them still available in the draft are so bad.

The closer to #1 a pick is the closer the gap in talent is (because you have the entire draft class to choose from) and often the harder it is to identify who will most likely end up being the best player from that draft class five years down the track. However imo the closer to the 30th pick and often at the 60th a pick is the easier it is to identify who the BPA or BPAs are.

Yet somehow those throughout the NBA whose full-time job it is to identify talented players don't realise it. That's just my opinion though and I'm definitely not infallible or a Jerry West (the GOAT NBA executive imo) :D

Does that make sense?


I get you, it makes sense. I will say that most of us can fall victim to revisionist history very easily, though. I can look through a draft and sometimes I’ll be shocked, but a lot of it is just the biases I form over years.

But I will say that I think teams need to find a way to evaluate BBIQ and work ethic better than they do. A lot of misses come from not snuffing that stuff out better.


You're absolutely correct about revisionist history.

That's why I wrote a bunch of stuff on the board leading up to the draft this year for fun. No revisionist history possible :)

I don't think I wrote down what I thought of Devin Booker but I can say I was definitely wrong about him so I'm pretty honest about what I've been right and wrong about.

Work ethic is the hardest think to figure out imo. Jared Sullinger seemed to have work ethic when he started but then lost it. Jokic before the draft was the opposite with the worst diet ever :) Anthony Bennett never had work ethic.

BBIQ can really just be figured out first and foremost by watching a player play but then also cross referencing with metrics just as another layer of evaluation to make sure you're not tricking yourself - but I'm generalising - it's not always that simple but it can be at times a pretty solid shortcut.
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Re: Sophmores, 2020-21 – Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Waters, Tacko, Green 

Post#732 » by SMTBSI » Sat Feb 6, 2021 6:19 am

Carsen's now at 20 pp36 on .635 TS%, and dead even .400 3pt%.

Minuscule sample size, as he only just eclipsed 100 minutes played tonight, but good numbers in small sample size is still better than bad numbers in small sample size.

But either way, his 3pt shot just looks good to me.
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Re: Sophmores, 2020-21 – Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Waters, Tacko, Green 

Post#733 » by SMTBSI » Sat Feb 6, 2021 6:22 am

Also, Grant is now 53-127 (.417), from three, since his 0-25 start.
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Re: Sophmores, 2020-21 – Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Waters, Tacko, Green 

Post#734 » by ParticleMan » Sat Feb 6, 2021 10:58 am

More than anything I feel like carsen is starting to learn how to be effective on the defensive end. He will never be a plus defender but he is no longer atrocious. This keeps him on the floor, and I think he feels less pressure to make every shot because he won’t get pulled if he’s not instantly hot.

The numbers game is tough too. We’ve got many good not great shooters on the bench with decent enough stats, but none of them are consistent from game to game. So Brad can’t really set a rotation, he has to guess who is going to be hot in any given game or quarter.
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Re: Sophmores, 2020-21 – Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Waters, Tacko, Green 

Post#735 » by FlatearthZorro » Sat Feb 6, 2021 3:42 pm

Anything on Langford? I'm starting to get nervous... I want Langford to get minutes.
Good assessment:

PLO wrote:Tatum played OK - took advantage of a few mismatches - decent on the defensive end. He is what we thought he was going into the season - a technically very proficient player operating close to his career ceiling as a rookie.
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Re: Sophmores, 2020-21 – Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Waters, Tacko, Green 

Post#736 » by darrendaye » Sat Feb 6, 2021 4:22 pm

ParticleMan wrote:More than anything I feel like carsen is starting to learn how to be effective on the defensive end. He will never be a plus defender but he is no longer atrocious. This keeps him on the floor, and I think he feels less pressure to make every shot because he won’t get pulled if he’s not instantly hot.

The numbers game is tough too. We’ve got many good not great shooters on the bench with decent enough stats, but none of them are consistent from game to game. So Brad can’t really set a rotation, he has to guess who is going to be hot in any given game or quarter.


Still a ways to go in defensive awareness, but he has a physical profile for being a solid defender if he commits to it. He makes plays on the ball and he has great vertical pop and will block a shot here and there. He and Pritchard are both willing to bump with bigger guys and mix it up.

I don't expect that he will even be a point guard option on offense, but, I've never advocated just cutting the guy because he can be a versatile scoring option. He's very active off the ball. He looked to cut baseline a couple of times last night. He's got some shake with the ball. He can elevate and finish over taller players at the rim, as long as he picks his matchups. But the bottom line with him is going to be his 3pt shooting.
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Re: Sophmores, 2020-21 – Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Waters, Tacko, Green 

Post#737 » by AKFO » Sat Feb 6, 2021 8:56 pm

I think over the last year and a half Carsen has been learning to let his offense come to him, and just focus on moving the ball and playing good defense. When shots weren't falling early last year, I was proud of Carsen for his commitment to team principles over being a ball stopper and continuing to chuck.

With the Jays on the team, it's only a matter of time before he gets some open looks and he just has to knock them down. In the meantime, he has been sufficiently patient with his offense and a good team player; part of the reason I never gave up on him.

At 5'11 he has to produce offensively or he's going to end up out of the league. And his skillset requires him to play the 2 offensively but the 1 defensively. He can still end up a solid bench scorer on a team with enough size around him.
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Re: Sophmores, 2020-21 – Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Waters, Tacko, Green 

Post#738 » by BostonCouchGM » Sat Feb 6, 2021 9:08 pm

it'll never not be painful thinking about the players Danny could have drafted instead of these bums. I really enjoy everyone pretending these guys are good when they have an okay game once a month.
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Re: Sophmores, 2020-21 – Langford, G. Williams, Edwards, Waters, Tacko, Green 

Post#739 » by Bleeding Green » Sat Feb 6, 2021 9:37 pm

Yeah all those brilliant players in the second round. So many of them. Dude, KZ Okpala would make such a difference on this team it's not even funny.
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