Lauri Markkanen Discussion Thread

[MGB8]

I’m happy for Lauri that he’s playing well, but the rest of his game shouldn’t be overlooked when discussing his next contract. Right now he’s posting career lows in rebounds, blocks, and assists. Those are important aspects that can’t just be ignored.

I'm happy for him, too... but we're still talking a small sample size, too. Let's see this be maintained. We've seen players have hot stretches before, and then that kind of evaporate - to include Coby last season, Lauri, Niko, etc.

Heck, this season, in the 11 games that he's played 20 minutes or more, our old pal Bobby Portis is averaging about 16p/9r/2a on insane efficiency (68% TS) along with good defense.

If Lauri keeps up the scoring while building the other aspects of his game up throughout a season, through the bumps and bruises, etc., he's going to have earned a very nice payday. If he doesn't... it won't be as nice. And the injuries with him do concerns me - not Otto Porter level but still enough to give me pause before putting to much $$$ into him long term - but that's part of the "trade him or pay him" decision.

Honestly, if he plays well enough and for whatever reason the Raptors want to move on from Siakam given his down year and cost.... Lauri + Otto for Siakam plus, say, Stanley Johnson works... If Lauri pumps up his value enough...

Siakam is 3 years older is basically a taller and more talented version of Thad (minus the down shooting year from 3). I mean, I'd love to get OG, too, who looks like he is breaking out... but a "broken out" OG is what we're hoping Pat turns into.

[ZOMG]

I’m happy for Lauri that he’s playing well, but the rest of his game shouldn’t be overlooked when discussing his next contract. Right now he’s posting career lows in rebounds, blocks, and assists. Those are important aspects that can’t just be ignored.

Disagree. This is a specialist's league, with a HUGE emphasis on scoring and mismatch potential. Lauri brings exactly that.

It makes no sense for JJ Reddick to try to improve his (nonexistent) ability to finish at the rack, because nobody's paying him to be a finisher. This is an extreme example, but you get the point. If/when Lauri gets the big contract offers, it'll be because of his scoring/shooting and being a mismatch threat.

Sure it doesn't hurt him to improve in other areas, but he'll quickly run into diminishing returns.

Blocking shots in particular is an interesting case - in this league, you're either an efficient rim protector... or you don't matter in that respect. Wendell Carter is averaging pretty much the same number of blocks as Lauri these days, but you don't really hear people ragging on him for it. The truth is that neither of them matters at all as a rim protector. That's a big *shrug* for most NBA teams. Blocking shots is a specialist skill.

Rebounding numbers contain so much static these days that they won't matter. Rebounding is affected by team wide strategy, as we're seeing in Lauri's case - some people box out, some go for the ball. But even considering that, Lauri's rebound numbers are well in line with other modern perimeter-centric PF's. And his assists have been discussed here - he plays inside a ball movement framework currently and his main job is to be the end point, a scorer. He's not a selfish black hole, which is the most important thing.

I agree with you in general, but there is no excuse for his piss poor rebounding. He simply does not box out properly and chase loose balls. No modern star PFs are averaging 6 rebounds. He does try to block shots, but that is where those shorts arms come into play. Not much can be done about that so I don’t really that against him.

"Piss poor" rebounding? And does someone consider Markkanen a star?

Anyway... here's a random list of career rebounding stats for PF's who also spend time on the perimeter, per 36:

Kevin Love 12.5
Julius Randle 11.1
John Collins 11.0
Serge Ibaka 9.3
Blake Griffin 9.1
Lauri Markkanen 8.8
LaMarcus Alridge 8.7
Montrezl Harrell 8.6
Zach Collins 8.2
Jaren Jackson Jr 8.2
Aaron Gordon 8.1
Nemanja Bjelica 7.9
Pascal Siakam 7.7

[sco]

Disagree. This is a specialist's league, with a HUGE emphasis on scoring and mismatch potential. Lauri brings exactly that.

It makes no sense for JJ Reddick to try to improve his (nonexistent) ability to finish at the rack, because nobody's paying him to be a finisher. This is an extreme example, but you get the point. If/when Lauri gets the big contract offers, it'll be because of his scoring/shooting and being a mismatch threat.

Sure it doesn't hurt him to improve in other areas, but he'll quickly run into diminishing returns.

Blocking shots in particular is an interesting case - in this league, you're either an efficient rim protector... or you don't matter in that respect. Wendell Carter is averaging pretty much the same number of blocks as Lauri these days, but you don't really hear people ragging on him for it. The truth is that neither of them matters at all as a rim protector. That's a big *shrug* for most NBA teams. Blocking shots is a specialist skill.

Rebounding numbers contain so much static these days that they won't matter. Rebounding is affected by team wide strategy, as we're seeing in Lauri's case - some people box out, some go for the ball. But even considering that, Lauri's rebound numbers are well in line with other modern perimeter-centric PF's. And his assists have been discussed here - he plays inside a ball movement framework currently and his main job is to be the end point, a scorer. He's not a selfish black hole, which is the most important thing.

I agree with you in general, but there is no excuse for his piss poor rebounding. He simply does not box out properly and chase loose balls. No modern star PFs are averaging 6 rebounds. He does try to block shots, but that is where those shorts arms come into play. Not much can be done about that so I don’t really that against him.

"Piss poor" rebounding? And does someone consider Markkanen a star?

Anyway... here's a random list of career rebounding stats for PF's who also spend time on the perimeter, per 36:

Kevin Love 12.5
Julius Randle 11.1
John Collins 11.0
Serge Ibaka 9.3
Blake Griffin 9.1
Lauri Markkanen 8.8
LaMarcus Alridge 8.7
Montrezl Harrell 8.6
Zach Collins 8.2
Jaren Jackson Jr 8.2
Aaron Gordon 8.1
Nemanja Bjelica 7.9
Pascal Siakam 7.7

I do wonder about rebounding as a key measure in today's NBA. On the one hand, with more 3pt shots, shooting %'s are down, so there are more rebounds to be had. On the other hand, a higher % of rebounds are long rebounds, and distributed among perimeter positions.

[Red8911]

Why do you guys need to bump a rumor thread from a year ago? Why not just make a new one about Lauri ? It’s very easy to start it.

[cjbulls]

Disagree. This is a specialist's league, with a HUGE emphasis on scoring and mismatch potential. Lauri brings exactly that.

It makes no sense for JJ Reddick to try to improve his (nonexistent) ability to finish at the rack, because nobody's paying him to be a finisher. This is an extreme example, but you get the point. If/when Lauri gets the big contract offers, it'll be because of his scoring/shooting and being a mismatch threat.

Sure it doesn't hurt him to improve in other areas, but he'll quickly run into diminishing returns.

Blocking shots in particular is an interesting case - in this league, you're either an efficient rim protector... or you don't matter in that respect. Wendell Carter is averaging pretty much the same number of blocks as Lauri these days, but you don't really hear people ragging on him for it. The truth is that neither of them matters at all as a rim protector. That's a big *shrug* for most NBA teams. Blocking shots is a specialist skill.

Rebounding numbers contain so much static these days that they won't matter. Rebounding is affected by team wide strategy, as we're seeing in Lauri's case - some people box out, some go for the ball. But even considering that, Lauri's rebound numbers are well in line with other modern perimeter-centric PF's. And his assists have been discussed here - he plays inside a ball movement framework currently and his main job is to be the end point, a scorer. He's not a selfish black hole, which is the most important thing.

I agree with you in general, but there is no excuse for his piss poor rebounding. He simply does not box out properly and chase loose balls. No modern star PFs are averaging 6 rebounds. He does try to block shots, but that is where those shorts arms come into play. Not much can be done about that so I don’t really that against him.

"Piss poor" rebounding? And does someone consider Markkanen a star?

Anyway... here's a random list of career rebounding stats for PF's who also spend time on the perimeter, per 36:

Kevin Love 12.5
Julius Randle 11.1
John Collins 11.0
Serge Ibaka 9.3
Blake Griffin 9.1
Lauri Markkanen 8.8
LaMarcus Alridge 8.7
Montrezl Harrell 8.6
Zach Collins 8.2
Jaren Jackson Jr 8.2
Aaron Gordon 8.1
Nemanja Bjelica 7.9
Pascal Siakam 7.7

I think generally his rebounding has been fine, but this year he is down on rebounding rate. The Bulls seem to have a lot of below average rebounders on this roster (PW, Lauri this year, Gafford) and no one who is above average. This roster is begging for a defensive center that gobbles rebounds. Many here would hate it though given most of those types can’t shoot.

[Chi town]

I agree with you in general, but there is no excuse for his piss poor rebounding. He simply does not box out properly and chase loose balls. No modern star PFs are averaging 6 rebounds. He does try to block shots, but that is where those shorts arms come into play. Not much can be done about that so I don’t really that against him.

"Piss poor" rebounding? And does someone consider Markkanen a star?

Anyway... here's a random list of career rebounding stats for PF's who also spend time on the perimeter, per 36:

Kevin Love 12.5
Julius Randle 11.1
John Collins 11.0
Serge Ibaka 9.3
Blake Griffin 9.1
Lauri Markkanen 8.8
LaMarcus Alridge 8.7
Montrezl Harrell 8.6
Zach Collins 8.2
Jaren Jackson Jr 8.2
Aaron Gordon 8.1
Nemanja Bjelica 7.9
Pascal Siakam 7.7

I do wonder about rebounding as a key measure in today's NBA. On the one hand, with more 3pt shots, shooting %'s are down, so there are more rebounds to be had. On the other hand, a higher % of rebounds are long rebounds, and distributed among perimeter positions.

Bingo.

[Chi town]

ATTACK Lauri is a player you want to keep. Him playing at the backup 5 gives us an advantage on offense too.

[WindyCityBorn]

Disagree. This is a specialist's league, with a HUGE emphasis on scoring and mismatch potential. Lauri brings exactly that.

It makes no sense for JJ Reddick to try to improve his (nonexistent) ability to finish at the rack, because nobody's paying him to be a finisher. This is an extreme example, but you get the point. If/when Lauri gets the big contract offers, it'll be because of his scoring/shooting and being a mismatch threat.

Sure it doesn't hurt him to improve in other areas, but he'll quickly run into diminishing returns.

Blocking shots in particular is an interesting case - in this league, you're either an efficient rim protector... or you don't matter in that respect. Wendell Carter is averaging pretty much the same number of blocks as Lauri these days, but you don't really hear people ragging on him for it. The truth is that neither of them matters at all as a rim protector. That's a big *shrug* for most NBA teams. Blocking shots is a specialist skill.

Rebounding numbers contain so much static these days that they won't matter. Rebounding is affected by team wide strategy, as we're seeing in Lauri's case - some people box out, some go for the ball. But even considering that, Lauri's rebound numbers are well in line with other modern perimeter-centric PF's. And his assists have been discussed here - he plays inside a ball movement framework currently and his main job is to be the end point, a scorer. He's not a selfish black hole, which is the most important thing.

I agree with you in general, but there is no excuse for his piss poor rebounding. He simply does not box out properly and chase loose balls. No modern star PFs are averaging 6 rebounds. He does try to block shots, but that is where those shorts arms come into play. Not much can be done about that so I don’t really that against him.

"Piss poor" rebounding? And does someone consider Markkanen a star?

Anyway... here's a random list of career rebounding stats for PF's who also spend time on the perimeter, per 36:

Kevin Love 12.5
Julius Randle 11.1
John Collins 11.0
Serge Ibaka 9.3
Blake Griffin 9.1
Lauri Markkanen 8.8
LaMarcus Alridge 8.7
Montrezl Harrell 8.6
Zach Collins 8.2
Jaren Jackson Jr 8.2
Aaron Gordon 8.1
Nemanja Bjelica 7.9
Pascal Siakam 7.7

I’m just talking about this season. I KNOW he can do better on the boards than he currently is. And yes when you are looking at paying a young player 20+ million I think you be looking looking for potential star production.

[Pentele]

I’m just talking about this season. I KNOW he can do better on the boards than he currently is. And yes when you are looking at paying a young player 20+ million I think you be looking looking for potential star production.

This rebounding thing has been rehearsed time and time again. Sure, Lauri does not look to be a confident rebounder and his boxing out is a sore to the eyes, but the statistical evidence we have over his career suggests that he is pretty average considering PF position and the specific role as a perimeter oriented player. Surely it does not suggest that he is a piss-poor rebounder as you want to insist. And I do not really see why one would have to be worried that Lauri has somehow become a worse rebounder during the off-season. It is imminently more reasonable to think that his baseline is more or less average (given the side constraints described above) while deviations from it are a result of the team's rebounding scheme.

If Lauri would indeed be "a piss-poor rebounder" instead of being close to average, that would certainly be a valid point in determining the worth of his contract. It is just that there is not much that speaks for that conclusion. And if you do not trust Lauri's personal numbers, check the team rebounding this season. Bulls have done perfectly adequate job on that department even if there are supposedly no good rebounders in the roster (some are willing to say that Wendell might be good). Whatever they are doing, it is working quite well. At the end of the day, that is what matters.

[sco]

Pulling Swuul's post here from other thread:

Have any credible dollar figures leaked from lauri's extension talks?

I was told by a person who I think is a reliable source that Lauri's agent asked for four years and 20 mio per year, so 80 mio in all. Bulls offered a Felicio level contract of 33 mio (Felicio got 32 mio) with 11 mio per year for 3 years (plus one year team option).

Where the numbers were when the negotiations ended I have no clue of.

Both numbers are supportable. There were decent market comps like Bertans for the $20M number and the FO was offering a deal for a back-up level player, which Lauri sorta played like last season.

His strong play can help us if we are able to sign him for $20-$25M, if it is sustained for the full season. It also might create a decent trade value for him if the FO thinks Lauri isn't a great fit going forward.

If somehow Otto gets healthy and out of his injury-driven funk, we might actually nab a decent asset back if we pair the two.

[sami71]

I am very happy that Lauri is playing well. And I think he is playing well. However, there is an immediate question of consistency and then later on we must not forget that he has ran out of gas on every season so far. I am sure we'd like to see improvements here and there and on defense in particular, but first let's not take the current level of play of a very small number of games as his floor. I mean I would love to believe this is where he is at, now, but I need to see a good deal more games before I am convinced this is the new normal for Lauri.

[GoBlue72391]

As good as Lauri is playing, there's still a few things I want to see from him:

- More active in the midrange

Carrying over from Egghead's scheme from last year, Lauri has been nonexistent there. His first 2 years he flashed a pull up mid and a post fade. I want to see more of that in situations that call for it. When he drives but can't get all the way to the paint he passes it back out to a player not in a position to score. Pull up for a mid instead when the opportunity arises.

- getting the ball in the post against smaller players

We all know Lauri leaves a lot to be desired with his back to the basket as a 7 footer, but before the COVID snafu he was flashing more aggression and success in the post against smaller players. We seem to have went away from that since his return. The Knicks made adjustments at halftime the other night, and in turn Lauri was consistently getting guys like Quickly switched onto him, but we didn't even look to take advantage of that even once. Even if he can't consistently bully mismatches to get to the rim from the post, there's no reason he can't just shoot a post fade right over them, which he flashed earlier in his career.

- more opportunities to push the ball in transition

This can be partially addressed by Lauri grabbing more defensive rebounds, but too often he looks for a guard to give the ball to after a rebound which kills our transition opportunity and slows down our offense. Just grab it and go. More often than not he gets a layup/dunk or an assist out of it, he just doesn't do it enough.

- more opportunities as the ball handler in the P&R

We were having success with that 4/5 PR we were running early on, but we seemed to have abandoned it. No reason we can't try it once or twice a game. It usually leads to an easy lob for the 5.

Sent from my SM-S115DL using RealGM mobile app

[sco]

As good as Lauri is playing, there's still a few things I want to see from him:

- More active in the midrange

Carrying over from Egghead's scheme from last year, Lauri has been nonexistent there. His first 2 years he flashed a pull up mid and a post fade. I want to see more of that in situations that call for it. When he drives but can't get all the way to the paint he passes it back out to a player not in a position to score. Pull up for a mid instead when the opportunity arises.

- getting the ball in the post against smaller players

We all know Lauri leaves a lot to be desired with his back to the basket as a 7 footer, but before the COVID snafu he was flashing more aggression and success in the post against smaller players. We seem to have went away from that since his return. The Knicks made adjustments at halftime the other night, and in turn Lauri was consistently getting guys like Quickly switched onto him, but we didn't even look to take advantage of that even once. Even if he can't consistently bully mismatches to get to the rim from the post, there's no reason he can't just shoot a post fade right over them, which he flashed earlier in his career.

- more opportunities to push the ball in transition

This can be partially addressed by Lauri grabbing more defensive rebounds, but too often he looks for a guard to give the ball to after a rebound which kills our transition opportunity and slows down our offense. Just grab it and go. More often than not he gets a layup/dunk or an assist out of it, he just doesn't do it enough.

- more opportunities as the ball handler in the P&R

We were having success with that 4/5 PR we were running early on, but we seemed to have abandoned it. No reason we can't try it once or twice a game. It usually leads to an easy lob for the 5.

Sent from my SM-S115DL using RealGM mobile app

Man, I thought I had a high bar in terms of what I wanted from Lauri. The post-up and rebounding improvements, IMO, aren't things that I think you'll ever see from him.

[sco]

So I am wrestling with any scenario that the Bulls should want to not trade Lauri at the deadline. Sure, he doesn't have a chronic injury problem, but it's hard to say he's durable.

Finn fans, chime in.

[cjbulls]

We need to get more hyped about Lauri. Have you looked at his numbers? Lauri is a couple assists away from matching age 23 Larry Bird. Lots of promise here. The two are practically identical statistically. Well, actually Lauri is way more efficient.

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=markkla01&p1yrfrom=2021&player_id2=birdla01&p2yrfrom=1980


If only we had the next McHale.....

[Pentele]

So I am wrestling with any scenario that the Bulls should want to not trade Lauri at the deadline. Sure, he doesn't have a chronic injury problem, but it's hard to say he's durable.

Finn fans, chime in.

I think it depends almost solely on how long a road AK wants to take. If he feels there is a three to five year rebuilding coming, it is probably a no-brainer to trade Lauri at the deadline. If he feels there is something to build on already (e.g. Zach), it is probably not that easy to let Lauri go for a late to very late 1st round pick for instance.

Overall, the Bulls lack talent, and whatever you think of Lauri as a well-rounded player (which he currently is not, IMO), he has clear offensive talent and even more upside still on that front which is kind of ridiculous when you think about it. One could argue that Lauri is the second most talented player on the roster since we do not really know about PWill (though he looks legit) and Porter is practically gone. One usually wants to hold on to talent, since it is always a gamble with picks and replacing talent with free agents is not that easy. What is easy is to say "build around Zach and PWill". What if the process is expected to take years and years? Even with a longer contract Zach could demand a trade if he would feel that things are not moving quickly enough, and that could set things back another couple of years. But like I said, I think it depends on how one sees the current talent level of players, and perhaps how confident one is in Zach in particular.

[LateNight]

So I am wrestling with any scenario that the Bulls should want to not trade Lauri at the deadline. Sure, he doesn't have a chronic injury problem, but it's hard to say he's durable.

Finn fans, chime in.

It's been a rollercoaster. I've never been as high on Lauri as some others - but I've definitely been open to keeping him. Especially after those good stretches -- but I can't help but feeling like we've been through this before.

Like, after this injury the process will start all over again.

Lauri will come back - he'll drop 30 one night, everyone will fall in love with him - he'll be aggressive for a little while, then he'll disappear, then one night suddenly he'll develop [insert medical issue / injury] and he'll be out.

Obviously the injury stuff is not his fault. And I am not saying he's a bad player -- It's just not a good situation for him. Our roster is too thin and, as a result, our team is asking more of Lauri than he can realistically give you.

As of now, I'm firmly in the camp that we should put him on the trade block take the best offer we can get.



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...
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Of course - when he drops that next 30 point game, I'll probably start to question that decision all over again.

[PaKii94]

20ppg @65%TS? Assisted points? Psshhh easily replaceable.

[PaKii94]

But in seriousness, even with Lauri's flaws, the skillset he provides is very valuable in today's NBA. Being able to get points efficiently within the flow of the game is a valuable trait to have.

3s/ shots at the rim/ FTs are considered the most valuable plays analytically. Lauri's game is 90% that.

There are only 18 players in the league with his scoring output and his 3point shooting rate.

https://go.nba.com/idkw

[PaKii94]

I also do agree that if he can't stay on the f**king floor then he's useless. It's annoying that he continually gets these random nagging injuries. Hopefully he can get some good luck and stay healthy when he gets back...