Gary Trent Jr. - Offseason contract, trade value?

[Norm2953]

Think about the how the league evaluates talent. Roco is valued but most members on the trade board
considered him to be a glue player, hardly an all-star caliber talent. DJJ signed for the MLE and in last
years championship finals, was left on the bench while his team was getting beat by the Lakers. He's more
athlete than skilled player.

Hypothetically, Nurk badly needed by Portland so perhaps is valued to Portland he would get a big
contract but the league's GM's might be hesitant to offer him $20+ Million/year given how much time
he has missed these past two seasons. Kanter is a good backup but he was waived by the Knicks.

The thing is most of us are fearful another team with major cap space will "Crabbe" Portland offering
a guy like GTJ perhaps $25 Million/season which is indicative of how he's viewed by the league. His
future is all ahead of him for he's likely going to progress to the Wesley Matthews level of player or
perhaps if his defense improves, he could be a poor man's version of Klay Thompson for his stat line
at age 22 is similar to Klay Thompson at 22. Needless to say, there is nobody else on the roster who
is likely to see that type of big money which indicative of a player's ability.

I do agree with Monopoman that this is not a GTJ vs CJ argument for in 2021, CJ is the better player
but will he will he still be the better in 2023? My concern is how to keep the best pieces of the team
together for no team willingly will surrender a 22 year old talent but keeping the 3 guards might lead
to close to $100 Million for three guards. Likely Portland will be losing Hood, DJJ (opt out) and has to
weigh keeping Zach, Kanter while facing Nurk, Roco final year on their contracts. It would behoove the
team to have a bit of flexibility in crafting their team which is why I think it should be CJ , assuming they
could get a deal to get a player to balance out the roster.

[monopoman]

I think most teams are wary of a Nurkic signing he has only played 20 games over the past two seasons. Plenty of teams are worried about having their money tied up to a guy who barely sees the court. Now this could be a blip on his record and he turns it around, before that he had two seasons in a row of 70+ games. I still think it will greatly diminish any offer he gets injury prone may not be a thing to doctor's but it exists in the NBA world.

[Wizenheimer]

Small sample size, I know, but the Blazers are also 10-4 since CJ's injury if I'm not mistaken. They were 8-6 with him. I think it is fair to not only look at this from a cost management perspective but also a team success perspective. It is reasonable to think (or, at least, it goes along with my thinking therefore it is of course reasonable ), that the additional defense and the extra "ball in Dame's hands" time is for the overall benefit of the team as long as Dame stays healthy.

Blazers were 7-5 before CJ's injury. They are 11-6 since his injury (although the next 3 games are going to be very challenging)

over the last 3 seasons, CJ has had two extended stretches of missed games. 16 straight games this season, and 10 straight games in 2018-19. Portland is 19-7 in those games. 26 games is a somewhat representative sample size that would go toward normalizing home/road and playoff-team/lottery-team imbalances. A 19-7 record is a .731 winning percentage which would translate to 60 wins in an 82 game season. Portland hasn't been at that level since the Pippen/Sabonis team. In fact, IIRC, the Blazers have only hit the 60 win plateau once in their history in the Drexler era

making this puzzle even more interesting is that Nurkic has also missed 23 of those 26 games, and Zach Collins has missed 16 of 26. So it gets harder to make it simply a with-CJ/without-CJ equation. The main takeaway is that Portland seems to be as good, if not better, with Dame as the center of the core than Dame/CJ as the center

trading CJ for a decent return that brings back talent and some cap-relief has some persuasive logic. For instance, with the Knicks reportedly being interested, trading CJ for Julius Randle, Alec Burks (and/or Reggie Bullock, or Austin Rivers, or Nerlens Noel or Derrick Rose) and the Knicks' first round pick looks like a decent trade. Gives he Blazers an all-star level PF/C averaging 23-11-6 while shooting 41% on three's, another player or two for depth, some cap-relief, and a pick in a really strong draft. RoCo can be moved to SF, and Portland's offense gets a major shot in the arm while the biggest redundancy on the Blazers is resolved. Doesn't help the defense much but nothing will help that as long as Stotts is around

[DaVoiceMaster]

Definitely should look at options. I posted a thread on the Trades & Transaction forum listing salaries for Hood, Collins, Simons, Little, and Giles III to see what the Blazers could get in return. Randle, Burks, and Bullock would be an interesting idea. Randle is shooting 41% from the 3, Burks is shooting 40% from the 3, and Bullock is shooting 37% from the 3.

Lillard / Simons
Trent Jr / Burks / Hood
Covington / Bullock / Little
Randle / Jones Jr / Anthony / Giles III
Nurkic / Kanter / Collins

You could do another consolidation trade if you wanted, as well. Having said that, I really doubt the Blazers move CJ, but one can still dream a bit.

[BlazersBroncos]

Isnt Randle a bit ball dominant for a big man? Has Stotts ever used a big that handles the ball like Randle?

[d-train]

Randle is a hot pile of s__t. I wouldn't want him in exchange for nothing. Gordon isn't as bad, but I don't want him and his contract either. I don't want any player that costs a lot of money that doesn't add skills that complement Lillard and CJ. Giving up CJ for such a player, is a chump trade.

[Wizenheimer]

Isnt Randle a bit ball dominant for a big man? Has Stotts ever used a big that handles the ball like Randle?

good thing Portland didn't sign Lebron or draft Jokic or draft Adebayo. Wouldn't want Stotts to move out of his comfort zone

by the way, Aldridge had a higher usage rate in Portland fr a couple of seasons that Randle has this year

[d-train]

Isnt Randle a bit ball dominant for a big man? Has Stotts ever used a big that handles the ball like Randle?

good thing Portland didn't sign Lebron or draft Jokic or draft Adebayo. Wouldn't want Stotts to move out of his comfort zone

by the way, Aldridge had a higher usage rate in Portland fr a couple of seasons that Randle has this year

I would take LeBron and Joker and remake our team. I believe Lillard would accept a subordinate complementary role. If not, I would dump him to make room for a better player. Adebayo would be a great addition to Lillard and CJ. Randle would be an awful addition. His salary doesn't fit the 10th man role that would best suit him.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Think about the how the league evaluates talent. ...

The thing is most of us are fearful another team with major cap space will "Crabbe" Portland offering a guy like GTJ perhaps $25 Million/season which is indicative of how he's viewed by the league. His future is all ahead of him for he's likely going to progress to the Wesley Matthews level of player or perhaps if his defense improves, he could be a poor man's version of Klay Thompson for his stat line
at age 22 is similar to Klay Thompson at 22. Needless to say, there is nobody else on the roster whois likely to see that type of big money which indicative of a player's ability.

I do agree with Monopoman that this is not a GTJ vs CJ argument for in 2021, CJ is the better player but will he will he still be the better in 2023? My concern is how to keep the best pieces of the team together for no team willingly will surrender a 22 year old talent but keeping the 3 guards might lead to close to $100 Million for three guards. Likely Portland will be losing Hood, DJJ (opt out) and has to weigh keeping Zach, Kanter while facing Nurk, Roco final year on their contracts. It would behoove the team to have a bit of flexibility in crafting their team which is why I think it should be CJ , assuming they could get a deal to get a player to balance out the roster.

The entire post is thoughtful and well said (IMHO). It gets to the ‘what to do’ part of the discussion of trading CJ for maximizing the roster. Trading for a forward — Tobias Harris or Middleton — helps talent in the front court but costs plenty. And I wouldn’t be opposed to it in the least. I’d prefer going for Atlanta’s Bogdanovic + John Collins + short-term filler in Snell, Dunn, etc. Collins will get their dollars and more next year.

CJ + Simons + Z Collins + Little + get it done. Get a good chunk of what CJ does at lower $$$ and better D. Improve significantly at PF at what will become serious $$$ for a big. I’d prefer getting Sabonis from Indy ... KP made a bad situation work.

[JRoy]

Julius Randle is fools gold