is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii

[babyjax13]

To be fair to Bagley, he is shooting 39% from three this year on three attempts. Still a bust relative to available prospects, but he might turn into something useful, maybe a better Bobby Portis or a worse John Collins, in terms of playstyle.

I think I should have avoided the word "bust". It was clearly triggering to some other posters and it can be misleading. I don't mean he can't stick in the league for a dozen years and provide some offense for a bench. But it's hard to imagine a good team finding a way to start him.

I was aware he's shooting okay on low volume but he's still not a spacer because teams aren't concerned about him out there. He's shooting 40% because he's getting all day to shoot. Watch how teams defend him and how teams defend Bjelica when he gets into games. Bjelica is having a terrible shooting season because he can't get into rhythm without a consistent role, but teams are afraid of him and close out much harder.

It's like Delon Wright last year with Dallas. He shot a good percentage but if you watched the games he'd only shoot if he had 15 feet of space and passed up tons of shots the offense needed him to take. The percentages don't tell the whole story on how a guy impacts an offense.

It at least signals he may be able to develop a credible shot, though. It's the first major sign of him developing a new skill, so it's pretty big for any future he has as anything other than Kenneth Faried 2.0

[Lunartic]

Pretty much the big version of Jabari Parker

[clyde21]

He’s a bust

damn Duke...that's your mans too. already mailing it in?

[Lockdown504090]

if the kings were smart they would just shut him down now and let him work on his body and his skill to come back and learn the game while healthy and having the ability to do what he wants.

[Duke4life831]

He’s a bust

damn Duke...that's your mans too. already mailing it in?

Yup you know how high I was on him. The complete lack of development in his game has turned me off. His per minute production is pretty much identical to his rookie year. Ya he’s shooting better from 3, but his FT% has tanked. Which leads me to believe there is a better chance that he’s just on a good 20 game groove from 3 and not actual progression with his shooting. FT shooting is usually a pretty good indication on actual shooting development.

It’s just the lack of development in his game which has me off the Bagley train. For comparison, I was high on Ingram predraft and remained high on him all throughout his Laker stint because it wasn’t just a year to year progression from him. You could basically see the progression month to month with him. Half way through year 3 for Bagley and he looks like the same player that played his first game at Duke.

[GregOden]

Amazing he's shooting almost 40% from 3 but he only makes 54% of his free throws. That's Bruce Bowen-esque.

[Vampirate]

bagley

Spoiler:

fox

Spoiler:

haliburton

Spoiler:

as you can see, bagley is in his third season and yet theres no gradual improvement in his game, i repeat "gradual", not some sudden big improvement... fox improved his game gradually, season by season and it even looks like haliburton could overtake bagley next season, so does that say something about bagley or not

im not saying hes a bust, still only 21 yo, but for a guy who was a second pick, youd expect some development so far

Compare Bagley's 3pt percentage to last year. He's a more efficient scorer but not dramatically so.

[Vampirate]

He’s a bust

damn Duke...that's your mans too. already mailing it in?

Yup you know how high I was on him. The complete lack of development in his game has turned me off. His per minute production is pretty much identical to his rookie year. Ya he’s shooting better from 3, but his FT% has tanked. Which leads me to believe there is a better chance that he’s just on a good 20 game groove from 3 and not actual progression with his shooting. FT shooting is usually a pretty good indication on actual shooting development.

It’s just the lack of development in his game which has me off the Bagley train. For comparison, I was high on Ingram predraft and remained high on him all throughout his Laker stint because it wasn’t just a year to year progression from him. You could basically see the progression month to month with him. Half way through year 3 for Bagley and he looks like the same player that played his first game at Duke.

He's a better scorer overall (not by much but it's an improvement) because of his 3pt shooting he's scoring at 1.2162 PPS compared to last year at 1.1093 PPS

[Soulyss]

He's a bust. He was overpicked by at least 5-6 spots because the other top picks were refusing to meet with the Kings and Bagley was publicly saying he wanted to be a King. Which is why the guy who ran that draft no longer has that job with the team.

It was a bad pick, and he's done nothing in coming on 3 years to show any growth. Bigs who won't defend and can't space have no value and its made worse by being over drafted so he makes big money for a rookie.

If a team offers an expiring and a 2nd they should take it as an addition by subtraction move. Maybe he eventually figures it out, but the Kings are starting to put some pieces into place and shouldn't be wasting more time with this guy.

I get fans just look at age and draft spot and think just give him time, but he's only got one more rookie year left and again at a big number so there is no value there. Smart franchises are willing to cut their losses. Fans hold on to the bitter end--as sadly do poorly run franchises and then he has a 12 game stretch late next year of 20/10 so they give him 4/$100M thinking he's arrived and now you've really hamstrung the franchise.

Was he a poor pick... ABSOLUTELY, you pick DONCIC every, single, time... (Atlanta also screwed that up btw, no matter how many times they try to justify Trae Young... PHX as well).

Is he really a bust? He's shooting nearly 40% from 3pt, Give him 30+ minutes per game and he probably averages 15/10/2/1... I mean it's brutal to see that and then remembering you passed on DONCIC, but that is a FO failing, not Bagley's...

He's not a great defender, but he shouldn't be playing the PF... He's a C. I also don't understand why the heck he's only playing 25 MPG, to me that seems like a coaching / development issue.

I can't believe I am defending a member of the KANGZ... I feel so dirty...

[HomoSapien]

He can play, he just needs a change of scenery and more importantly to stay healthy. It behooves the Kings to play him more --- both in terms of his development and with the purpose of keeping his trade value up. I think they're messing up.

[Duke4life831]

damn Duke...that's your mans too. already mailing it in?

Yup you know how high I was on him. The complete lack of development in his game has turned me off. His per minute production is pretty much identical to his rookie year. Ya he’s shooting better from 3, but his FT% has tanked. Which leads me to believe there is a better chance that he’s just on a good 20 game groove from 3 and not actual progression with his shooting. FT shooting is usually a pretty good indication on actual shooting development.

It’s just the lack of development in his game which has me off the Bagley train. For comparison, I was high on Ingram predraft and remained high on him all throughout his Laker stint because it wasn’t just a year to year progression from him. You could basically see the progression month to month with him. Half way through year 3 for Bagley and he looks like the same player that played his first game at Duke.

He's a better scorer overall (not by much but it's an improvement) because of his 3pt shooting he's scoring at 1.2162 PPS compared to last year at 1.1093 PPS

Okay but when you factor in FT shooting.

Rookie year (per 36):
21ppg, 56 TS%

This year (per 36)
19ppg, 54 TS%

And even when you don’t factor in FT shooting. eFG% as a rookie was 52.5%. This year is at 52.9%. And again this is on smaller volume.

[Archx]

He's a bust. He was overpicked by at least 5-6 spots because the other top picks were refusing to meet with the Kings and Bagley was publicly saying he wanted to be a King. Which is why the guy who ran that draft no longer has that job with the team.

It was a bad pick, and he's done nothing in coming on 3 years to show any growth. Bigs who won't defend and can't space have no value and its made worse by being over drafted so he makes big money for a rookie.

If a team offers an expiring and a 2nd they should take it as an addition by subtraction move. Maybe he eventually figures it out, but the Kings are starting to put some pieces into place and shouldn't be wasting more time with this guy.

I get fans just look at age and draft spot and think just give him time, but he's only got one more rookie year left and again at a big number so there is no value there. Smart franchises are willing to cut their losses. Fans hold on to the bitter end--as sadly do poorly run franchises and then he has a 12 game stretch late next year of 20/10 so they give him 4/$100M thinking he's arrived and now you've really hamstrung the franchise.

I also don't understand why the heck he's only playing 25 MPG...

If you combine all advance and regular stats, you'll quickly realise why

[Soulyss]

He's a bust. He was overpicked by at least 5-6 spots because the other top picks were refusing to meet with the Kings and Bagley was publicly saying he wanted to be a King. Which is why the guy who ran that draft no longer has that job with the team.

It was a bad pick, and he's done nothing in coming on 3 years to show any growth. Bigs who won't defend and can't space have no value and its made worse by being over drafted so he makes big money for a rookie.

If a team offers an expiring and a 2nd they should take it as an addition by subtraction move. Maybe he eventually figures it out, but the Kings are starting to put some pieces into place and shouldn't be wasting more time with this guy.

I get fans just look at age and draft spot and think just give him time, but he's only got one more rookie year left and again at a big number so there is no value there. Smart franchises are willing to cut their losses. Fans hold on to the bitter end--as sadly do poorly run franchises and then he has a 12 game stretch late next year of 20/10 so they give him 4/$100M thinking he's arrived and now you've really hamstrung the franchise.

I also don't understand why the heck he's only playing 25 MPG...

If you combine all advance and regular stats, you'll quickly realise why

Yeah his RPM/BPM aren't particularly pretty, but frankly... Nothing the Kings have done as of late would make numbers better. One of the challenges with the advanced metrics like RPM, BPM is that if the team is bad, it's rare that someone has GOOD numbers. I mean based on RPM Devin Booker is the 37th SG in the NBA... Lonzo Ball is the 7th best PG in the league and an offensive juggernaught... DORT is the 37th best SF, and a break even... (anyone who has seen Dort knows that isn't a thing... dude is a defensive monster.)

[Archx]

I also don't understand why the heck he's only playing 25 MPG...

If you combine all advance and regular stats, you'll quickly realise why

Yeah his RPM/BPM aren't particularly pretty, but frankly... Nothing the Kings have done as of late would make numbers better. One of the challenges with the advanced metrics like RPM, BPM is that if the team is bad, it's rare that someone has GOOD numbers. I mean based on RPM Devin Booker is the 37th SG in the NBA... Lonzo Ball is the 7th best PG in the league and an offensive juggernaught... DORT is the 37th best SF, and a break even... (anyone who has seen Dort knows that isn't a thing... dude is a defensive monster.)

You're right. To me RPM is the worst stat of them all that gets changed almost every year and has players in top20's that make absolutely no sense.

That's why i said i check almost all other details when it comes to a player, aswell as the obvious eye check. I never purely rely on only 1 detail. But what i tried to point out, maybe Bagley, for now, doesn't deserve more than 25mpg.

[whatchaknow]

He’s gonna have to buy into never being a go to scorer. If he can develop a little mid range game and keep improving on his 3 ball he can carve out a nice career. Sometimes it’s hard for young guys picked early to swallow the ego and do the things a team needs to win. I never understood why he was picked so early cuz I didn’t see “go to player” in his future.

With that said he still has the physical profile and the skill set to be a starting caliber player in the league. I’d like to see him land on a team like Denver, Portland or Utah where he doesn’t need to be a scorer but his size and athleticism could be utilized more so than in sac town. I don’t think those teams wanna take flyers on a project though right now. I especially see denver as a fit if he bought into trying to develop a millsap like game

[BoogieTime]

He's a bust. He was overpicked by at least 5-6 spots because the other top picks were refusing to meet with the Kings and Bagley was publicly saying he wanted to be a King. Which is why the guy who ran that draft no longer has that job with the team.

It was a bad pick, and he's done nothing in coming on 3 years to show any growth. Bigs who won't defend and can't space have no value and its made worse by being over drafted so he makes big money for a rookie.

If a team offers an expiring and a 2nd they should take it as an addition by subtraction move. Maybe he eventually figures it out, but the Kings are starting to put some pieces into place and shouldn't be wasting more time with this guy.

I get fans just look at age and draft spot and think just give him time, but he's only got one more rookie year left and again at a big number so there is no value there. Smart franchises are willing to cut their losses. Fans hold on to the bitter end--as sadly do poorly run franchises and then he has a 12 game stretch late next year of 20/10 so they give him 4/$100M thinking he's arrived and now you've really hamstrung the franchise.

Was he a poor pick... ABSOLUTELY, you pick DONCIC every, single, time... (Atlanta also screwed that up btw, no matter how many times they try to justify Trae Young... PHX as well).

Is he really a bust? He's shooting nearly 40% from 3pt, Give him 30+ minutes per game and he probably averages 15/10/2/1... I mean it's brutal to see that and then remembering you passed on DONCIC, but that is a FO failing, not Bagley's...

He's not a great defender, but he shouldn't be playing the PF... He's a C. I also don't understand why the heck he's only playing 25 MPG, to me that seems like a coaching / development issue.

I can't believe I am defending a member of the KANGZ... I feel so dirty...

Coaches make that decision. How much leeway do you think Walton has? He’s desperate to win

[Winsome Gerbil]

Just very hard to see him having "it" at this point. And I was pretty high on him after his rookie season. It was obvious the Kings blew that draft in disastrous fashion with Doncic, but I thought Bagley might turn out to be a decent consolation prize rather than a bust.

The thing is, the basketball geniuses, the people who have "it", typically give you lots of hints of a brighter future even while they're young, dumb, and inefficient. They pick up stats across the board doing fun and unexpected things and contributing in almost all areas because they just understand basketball at a higher level than others.

But guys like Bagley, who's raw scoring and rebounding numbers (19.0pts 10.7reb per36)would be pretty good even in this era of stat inflation, are kind of mechanical and limited. Its like book learning vs. actually lived learning. He does have some real scoring ability, he can grab some nice board numbers, but even those things are marred by inefficiency/not drawing fouls or hitting foul shots, and lack of physicality/not seeming to grab the tough rebounds. And then there's the lack of passing. The fact not a single stat likes his defense. And the seeming lack of improvement + injury proneness. Throw in a toxic father and you have a guy with some talent but almost no intangibles.Those 13.4pts and 7.5rebs aren't the tip of an iceberg -- there is no iceberg. Those stats are just what he brings.

[Maxthirty]

I mean, he is the same age as your average college senior. He has an NBA body and he can shoot. There’s still a little time for him to figure it out.

[dc]

I mean, he is the same age as your average college senior. He has an NBA body and he can shoot. There’s still a little time for him to figure it out.

He should be in the league for plenty of years. Not as if he's in any danger of being out, but as W.G. said above, he's not really showing intangibles or real improvement.

He'll collect some decent enough numbers by himself, but he's not really making guys around him better. He's not taking pressure off his teammates or, by the same token, forcing the opposing team to make any noticeable adjustments on the floor because of him. Nobody is game planning for this guy, and he hasn't displayed anything to suggest he'll be that kind of player the opposing team worries about.

He's just kind of out there...putting up some decent numbers, but it's obvious other players on the floor are the ones deciding the outcome of games.

[Duke4life831]

He’s a bust

Bagley is 21 years old and missed pretty much his entire sophomore season, and a quarter thru his 3rd season you have concluded he is a bust. Please explain.

He is the same player he was as a freshman at Duke. Trust me I am not a Bagley hater, Ive been the captain of the Bagley hype train for years now. But he is the same exact player he was at Duke 3 years ago. His per minute rebounds, steals, assists are all identical to his rookie year. His PPG are down and his blocks are cut in half. Rookie year he was at 56 TS% which was league average, so far this year he is at 54% which is 3% below league average.

The only thing where he has shown progression is his 3pt shot, but like I said in another post. The fact that his FT% has plummeted, I would lean to the 3pt shooting number as more of an outlier than the new norm. Since FT% is usually the best indication on shooting improvement. But even if the 3pt shooting is for real, he still hasn't improved his defensive awareness, he still has no right hand, he still doesn't know what the word pass means.