2021 Playoff and Offseason Speculation - the playoffs. PLAYOFFS????

[bwgood77]

Here's another play that I got upset from DA.

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Ayton does a good job of screening Ball here, but I think he could slip to the basket, or at the very least make an effort for an offensive rebound.

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But he just stops at the FT line...

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His motor, his effort is really dependent on how he feels. I'm not saying it's Ayton's fault we lost, I just think there were pivotal moments in the last 6 minutes where a bit of extra effort could have potentially changed the outcome of the game.

Biyombo had his arm on him, and then when the shot went up, 4 defenders caved around the basket. I wouldn't be surprised if Monty told them to make sure they get back in transition quickly either because they are one of the best transition teams.

I do find it weird that so much is said about little plays by Ayton here and there..one missed pass or this play, while Booker and Paul had 8 turnovers themselves combined (Booker 5, Paul 3). Paul's are not too bad given the 10 assists, and I get that these guys, being veterans are a lot more skilled on offense, so there is less focus on the mistakes, but if we are going to pick apart little things or one play here and there that maybe cost us the game, those turnovers are killers. You're likely giving up 2 points on every turnover (assuming there is a 50% chance or so of you scoring and instead the other team has approx a 50% chance in scoring each time). That's a lot of points that add up...particularly if they result in easy baskets.

Then you have the techs and stuff.

[bwgood77]

The pass is far from perfect, but two guys are on Book. Why isn't Ayton's hands up to anticipate the catch, why are his hands down? The ball wasn't even deflected or anything it just hit Ayton's fingers, should he not be expecting a pass in that scenario? Cam and Bridges were both in the corner being covered by one defender so no one was really open. CP3 should have rotated over to allow Cam to move over and then Bridges stays in the corner.

Perfect. This is exactly what I mean when I say he was very likely the third or four option for this play. He sees the restricted area defender, notices the sharp angle Book takes and thinks, correctly, “no way Book passes it to me here, I’ll keep charging down to occupy the restricted area defender, look for an offensive board if Book shoots, and be prepared to gain rebounding position on a kick out to a shooter.”

It is easier than that.

Ayton reacts too slow at many actions every game. Sometimes is on a help defense, sometimes to catch a pass... he is just slow to react and that is something that we commented a lot in the past. I wasn't surprised at all when I saw that play.

He has his strengths but this is one of his weaknesses for sure and that is probably why we don't try to feed him more.

Hopefully Booker's passing and ball handling improve though. As much talk as there is about Ayton, Booker makes the bad passes and turns the ball over (yes Ayton fumbles some way but not nearly as often as Book). He didn't have any turnovers last night, for example....of course some will blame Ayton for that bad pass though.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Doing the sums i think we need to go 25-16 to finish top 4 which is more than doable.

[spanishninja]

doing the sums i think we need to go 25-16 to finish top 4 which is more than doable.

i would kill to go 45-27

[darealjuice]

Well you have a ton of Cs shooting 3s and it helps give driving lanes for your great drivers like Book, Bridges and Ayton. KAT, Lopez, etc, help their teams due to spreading the floor.

I'm talking about developing a reliable 3 where they feel they have to cover him. Of course I don't want him camping out there at all if he is shooting 30%.

I was thinking he is actually a lot like Brook Lopez was coming into the league, but with better rebounding. Lopez was a good scorer inside, but not an aggressive one...more just scoring with short shots or putting in things. He was always good at contesting shots as well (still is). He was never a great rebounder though which hurt. Then he added the great 3 pt shooting.

Of course I want Ayton to drive more and be aggressive more inside, but we've seen it a little and it should keep progressing.

It only helps spread the floor if they guard you on the 3-point line though. I would personally let him stand out there and fire away all he wants, and I'm sure most teams would do the same until he's shooting around league average on decent volume. KAT is a far more dynamic player with the ball than Ayton, but he could be Lopez-like if his shooting significantly improved. I'm sure he's working on it, some guys just don't get there though. His flat shot isn't very conducive to 3-point shooting either.

I'm probably being a bit overdramatic with the Ayton disappointment. He's come a long way as a defender so far and he has a good base to build on offensively, but it's clear that he's behind in terms of skill set and feel for the game. He just leaves so much on the plate.

[TouchPassDario]

The pass is far from perfect, but two guys are on Book. Why isn't Ayton's hands up to anticipate the catch, why are his hands down? The ball wasn't even deflected or anything it just hit Ayton's fingers, should he not be expecting a pass in that scenario? Cam and Bridges were both in the corner being covered by one defender so no one was really open. CP3 should have rotated over to allow Cam to move over and then Bridges stays in the corner.

Perfect. This is exactly what I mean when I say he was very likely the third or four option for this play. He sees the restricted area defender, notices the sharp angle Book takes and thinks, correctly, “no way Book passes it to me here, I’ll keep charging down to occupy the restricted area defender, look for an offensive board if Book shoots, and be prepared to gain rebounding position on a kick out to a shooter.”

It is easier than that.

Ayton reacts too slow at many actions every game. Sometimes is on a help defense, sometimes to catch a pass... he is just slow to react and that is something that we commented a lot in the past. I wasn't surprised at all when I saw that play.

He has his strengths but this is one of his weaknesses for sure and that is probably why we don't try to feed him more.

Adds support to argument Booker shouldn’t have thrown him a bullet pass in this spot.

[darealjuice]

“What good does developing a 3 do” for a hyper athletic center who is an elite paint finisher on a team with great guards?

da real juice, just wow. Do you even basketball?

Lmaoooo you won't even quote me clown. Sneak dissing tough guy lol.

Who wants that 7 foot "hyper athletic elite paint finisher" center sitting on the 3-point line when he's surrounded by shooters that should be taking help defense away from him? He should be spending his time learning how to score in the paint outside of soft ass baby hooks and fade aways, not turning himself into a spot up shooter. You guys can have your dreams of Deandre "Channing Frye" "Brook Lopez" Ayton, I'd rather have him aim for Amare. Go off though

[TouchPassDario]

Idk man, the offense seems to open up the more diversity each player brings to the table.

Look at Dario: not exactly an elite shooter, but good enough to stretch the floor and draw out shot blockers. Makes a difference for guards attacking the rim if Serge or Rudy or AD isn’t waiting there.

[Qwigglez]

Biyombo had his arm on him, and then when the shot went up, 4 defenders caved around the basket. I wouldn't be surprised if Monty told them to make sure they get back in transition quickly either because they are one of the best transition teams.

I do find it weird that so much is said about little plays by Ayton here and there..one missed pass or this play, while Booker and Paul had 8 turnovers themselves combined (Booker 5, Paul 3). Paul's are not too bad given the 10 assists, and I get that these guys, being veterans are a lot more skilled on offense, so there is less focus on the mistakes, but if we are going to pick apart little things or one play here and there that maybe cost us the game, those turnovers are killers. You're likely giving up 2 points on every turnover (assuming there is a 50% chance or so of you scoring and instead the other team has approx a 50% chance in scoring each time). That's a lot of points that add up...particularly if they result in easy baskets.

Then you have the techs and stuff.

Easy swim move by Ayton and he goes right by Biyombo there, but just the tiniest of resistance by Biyomba was enough to get Ayton to stay back and just stand there. He didn't get back on defense he just stood there.
I do agree that Book and Paul made mistakes, I mentioned before they were showing off. Book's stupid push off after getting the challenge reversed likely cost us the game overall.
I'm just annoyed by Ayton's not being able to put together the entire package. Defensively I feel he has been great for the most part, but on offense he is just so frustrating because I know what he is capable of. If Ayton actually just sucked I honestly wouldn't be as mad, I'd just think well this guy isn't very good and it is what it is. Problem is, I think he is a good player and he is just playing scared or he has some kind of mental thing going on.

This is Ayton in his rookie season vs the Nuggets. 2nd highlight he makes a good cut, and then some pretty moves against Millsap. Play at 45 second mark he cuts and there are two Nuggets defenders there, he could pass to an open 3, but instead takes the layup over two small defenders. Another play at 1:05 mark, almost identical, and same result where Ayton gets an easy 2 points. Play at 2:35 he backs down his defender all the way to the basket. I'm not seeing any of these kind of plays by Ayton this year.

Watch on YouTube

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This is Ayton this year vs the Nuggets you can tell the difference in how he gets his points. Only one of his buckets is from a post-up, the rest of them are almost all spoon-fed or put-backs. His put-backs are great though, don't get me wrong on that end.

Watch on YouTube

[lilfishi22]

I'd love to believe Ayton is still developing but he just seemed to have taken a step back offensively. I remember earlier in the year he mentioned watching some film of CP3 and DeAndre Jordan back with the Clippers so he can learn what angles DJ took to get good feeds from CP3. I thought that would be huge for his development, but instead I see Ayton hesitating rolling to the rim, hiding behind his defender, taking bad cuts, etc. It honestly looks like he is purposely putting himself in a position to not get the ball.

Here's a clip I posted to my Twitter, and I think could have changed the outcome of the game, had Ayton caught the ball. Easily at the very least 2 points, two FT's or maybe even an And1.

Read on Twitter

It wasn't the great pass but the awareness wasn't there either.

Also I don't get how this play can be misinterpreted as 4 other guys being more at fault (shooters not making themselves available, not a perfect dime) than the guy who was rolling down the lane with only a single defender in the restricted area not expecting and not catching the pass.

[Qwigglez]

Perfect. This is exactly what I mean when I say he was very likely the third or four option for this play. He sees the restricted area defender, notices the sharp angle Book takes and thinks, correctly, “no way Book passes it to me here, I’ll keep charging down to occupy the restricted area defender, look for an offensive board if Book shoots, and be prepared to gain rebounding position on a kick out to a shooter.”

It is easier than that.

Ayton reacts too slow at many actions every game. Sometimes is on a help defense, sometimes to catch a pass... he is just slow to react and that is something that we commented a lot in the past. I wasn't surprised at all when I saw that play.

He has his strengths but this is one of his weaknesses for sure and that is probably why we don't try to feed him more.

Adds support to argument Booker shouldn’t have thrown him a bullet pass in this spot.

You keep saying it was a bullet pass, it was a one handed in the air pass by Book it couldn't have been softer.

[darealjuice]

Idk man, the offense seems to open up the more diversity each player brings to the table.

Look at Dario: not exactly an elite shooter, but good enough to stretch the floor and draw out shot blockers. Makes a difference for guards attacking the rim if Serge or Rudy or AD isn’t waiting there.

Dario is a very different player though. He can barely jump over a phonebook, and he can actually dribble while being defended unlike Ayton. His skills and basketball IQ are well beyond Ayton right now. I'd rather see Ayton play to his strengths. He's bigger, stronger, faster, and can jump higher than 90%+ of centers in the league, he should learn to use that before worrying about 3-point shooting.

I'm personally not confident in Ayton becoming a passable shooter from deep anyways. He shoots more of a line drive jump shot, he doesn't get the lofty arc that pure shooters have. It's just not a good entry angle for consistent long distance shooting, not much room for error. He can work on it and prove me wrong, but I prefer his gravity in the paint freeing our good 3-point shooters up, and that'll only be more impactful as he gets more dynamic with the ball in his hands.

[lilfishi22]

Well you have a ton of Cs shooting 3s and it helps give driving lanes for your great drivers like Book, Bridges and Ayton. KAT, Lopez, etc, help their teams due to spreading the floor.

I'm talking about developing a reliable 3 where they feel they have to cover him. Of course I don't want him camping out there at all if he is shooting 30%.

I was thinking he is actually a lot like Brook Lopez was coming into the league, but with better rebounding. Lopez was a good scorer inside, but not an aggressive one...more just scoring with short shots or putting in things. He was always good at contesting shots as well (still is). He was never a great rebounder though which hurt. Then he added the great 3 pt shooting.

Of course I want Ayton to drive more and be aggressive more inside, but we've seen it a little and it should keep progressing.

It only helps spread the floor if they guard you on the 3-point line though. I would personally let him stand out there and fire away all he wants, and I'm sure most teams would do the same until he's shooting around league average on decent volume. KAT is a far more dynamic player with the ball than Ayton, but he could be Lopez-like if his shooting significantly improved. I'm just he's working on it, some guys just don't get there though. His flat shot isn't very conducive to 3-point shooting either.

I'm probably being a bit overdramatic with the Ayton disappointment. He's come a long way as a defender so far and he has a good base to build on offensively, but it's clear that he's behind in terms of skill set and feel for the game. He just leaves so much on the plate.

I mean most players don't get to league average without trying first and usually shooting a poor percentage and in many cases it's a multi-season endeavour. I was never a big fan of the idea of Ayton focusing his development on shooting 3's as I thought he had more pressing issues on offense to fix that likely would pay more dividends but given his current trajectory as more of a complementary offensive player than a #2 option, I think developing his range probably will add to his career longevity than if he just stuck with being soft big man in the paint.

Every single big man who's considered elite shoots 3's, some better than others but all of them have it in their bag. I think for Ayton to get from not a liability on offense to being a real weapon, he kinda has to add the 3 because I just don't see him putting together the face up game, especially with his aversion to taking contact.

[darealjuice]

Read on Twitter

God that footwork sucks. Any middle school basketball coach will tell you to screen and quickly drop your right foot and open up to the ball when you roll, but he takes his left foot and turns all the way around with his back to the ball before he can even get started with his roll.

The pass was in traffic, but he didn't really fight for it either. If it hits your hands you should probably catch it, not an easy situation to be put in by Book either though.

[darealjuice]

I mean most players don't get to league average without trying first and usually shooting a poor percentage and in many cases it's a multi-season endeavour. I was never a big fan of the idea of Ayton focusing his development on shooting 3's as I thought he had more pressing issues on offense to fix that likely would pay more dividends but given his current trajectory as more of a complementary offensive player than a #2 option, I think developing his range probably will add to his career longevity than if he just stuck with being soft big man in the paint.

Every single big man who's considered elite shoots 3's, some better than others but all of them have it in their bag. I think for Ayton to get from not a liability on offense to being a real weapon, he kinda has to add the 3 because I just don't see him putting together the face up game, especially with his aversion to taking contact.

That's kind of the sticking point lol. I personally don't believe in him developing either skill to a level that I'd be satisfied, but I see developing a face-up game as more realistic. It's a lot easier to teach a guy to jab step and dribble without traveling than it is to become a good 3-point shooter.

[bwgood77]

doing the sums i think we need to go 25-16 to finish top 4 which is more than doable.

i would kill to go 45-27

538 projects us to go 46-26 which would be a 3rd place tie with the Lakers. Also same as Bucks and Nets. With the Nuggets one game back at 5, Portland a ways back at 6, followed by Dallas and SA. Warriors miss by one game due to a dumb tech by Draymond.

[bwgood77]

Well you have a ton of Cs shooting 3s and it helps give driving lanes for your great drivers like Book, Bridges and Ayton. KAT, Lopez, etc, help their teams due to spreading the floor.

I'm talking about developing a reliable 3 where they feel they have to cover him. Of course I don't want him camping out there at all if he is shooting 30%.

I was thinking he is actually a lot like Brook Lopez was coming into the league, but with better rebounding. Lopez was a good scorer inside, but not an aggressive one...more just scoring with short shots or putting in things. He was always good at contesting shots as well (still is). He was never a great rebounder though which hurt. Then he added the great 3 pt shooting.

Of course I want Ayton to drive more and be aggressive more inside, but we've seen it a little and it should keep progressing.

It only helps spread the floor if they guard you on the 3-point line though. I would personally let him stand out there and fire away all he wants, and I'm sure most teams would do the same until he's shooting around league average on decent volume. KAT is a far more dynamic player with the ball than Ayton, but he could be Lopez-like if his shooting significantly improved. I'm sure he's working on it, some guys just don't get there though. His flat shot isn't very conducive to 3-point shooting either.

I'm probably being a bit overdramatic with the Ayton disappointment. He's come a long way as a defender so far and he has a good base to build on offensively, but it's clear that he's behind in terms of skill set and feel for the game. He just leaves so much on the plate.

That's why I said reliable 3 pt shooter. Of course I don't want him standing out there if he isn't guarding..obviously that does no good. I don't want him shooting it unless he can get above what Cam is shooting about now (37% or so). Jae is at 36% and Saric at 35%. I'd want him probably a little better than that before I'd use it.

[darealjuice]

Well you have a ton of Cs shooting 3s and it helps give driving lanes for your great drivers like Book, Bridges and Ayton. KAT, Lopez, etc, help their teams due to spreading the floor.

I'm talking about developing a reliable 3 where they feel they have to cover him. Of course I don't want him camping out there at all if he is shooting 30%.

I was thinking he is actually a lot like Brook Lopez was coming into the league, but with better rebounding. Lopez was a good scorer inside, but not an aggressive one...more just scoring with short shots or putting in things. He was always good at contesting shots as well (still is). He was never a great rebounder though which hurt. Then he added the great 3 pt shooting.

Of course I want Ayton to drive more and be aggressive more inside, but we've seen it a little and it should keep progressing.

It only helps spread the floor if they guard you on the 3-point line though. I would personally let him stand out there and fire away all he wants, and I'm sure most teams would do the same until he's shooting around league average on decent volume. KAT is a far more dynamic player with the ball than Ayton, but he could be Lopez-like if his shooting significantly improved. I'm sure he's working on it, some guys just don't get there though. His flat shot isn't very conducive to 3-point shooting either.

I'm probably being a bit overdramatic with the Ayton disappointment. He's come a long way as a defender so far and he has a good base to build on offensively, but it's clear that he's behind in terms of skill set and feel for the game. He just leaves so much on the plate.

That's why I said reliable 3 pt shooter. Of course I don't want him standing out there if he isn't guarding..obviously that does no good. I don't want him shooting it unless he can get above what Cam is shooting about now (37% or so). Jae is at 36% and Saric at 35%. I'd want him probably a little better than that before I'd use it.

If he becomes a better 3-point shooter then Cam then he can shoot as many 3s as he wants lol I just can't see it happening

[bwgood77]

Biyombo had his arm on him, and then when the shot went up, 4 defenders caved around the basket. I wouldn't be surprised if Monty told them to make sure they get back in transition quickly either because they are one of the best transition teams.

I do find it weird that so much is said about little plays by Ayton here and there..one missed pass or this play, while Booker and Paul had 8 turnovers themselves combined (Booker 5, Paul 3). Paul's are not too bad given the 10 assists, and I get that these guys, being veterans are a lot more skilled on offense, so there is less focus on the mistakes, but if we are going to pick apart little things or one play here and there that maybe cost us the game, those turnovers are killers. You're likely giving up 2 points on every turnover (assuming there is a 50% chance or so of you scoring and instead the other team has approx a 50% chance in scoring each time). That's a lot of points that add up...particularly if they result in easy baskets.

Then you have the techs and stuff.

Easy swim move by Ayton and he goes right by Biyombo there, but just the tiniest of resistance by Biyomba was enough to get Ayton to stay back and just stand there. He didn't get back on defense he just stood there.
I do agree that Book and Paul made mistakes, I mentioned before they were showing off. Book's stupid push off after getting the challenge reversed likely cost us the game overall.
I'm just annoyed by Ayton's not being able to put together the entire package. Defensively I feel he has been great for the most part, but on offense he is just so frustrating because I know what he is capable of. If Ayton actually just sucked I honestly wouldn't be as mad, I'd just think well this guy isn't very good and it is what it is. Problem is, I think he is a good player and he is just playing scared or he has some kind of mental thing going on.

This is Ayton in his rookie season vs the Nuggets. 2nd highlight he makes a good cut, and then some pretty moves against Millsap. Play at 45 second mark he cuts and there are two Nuggets defenders there, he could pass to an open 3, but instead takes the layup over two small defenders. Another play at 1:05 mark, almost identical, and same result where Ayton gets an easy 2 points. Play at 2:35 he backs down his defender all the way to the basket. I'm not seeing any of these kind of plays by Ayton this year.

Watch on YouTube

;

This is Ayton this year vs the Nuggets you can tell the difference in how he gets his points. Only one of his buckets is from a post-up, the rest of them are almost all spoon-fed or put-backs. His put-backs are great though, don't get me wrong on that end.

Watch on YouTube

Going back and watching those highlights and I've watched a bunch from last year - it reminds me of how I felt about him defensively in college (in regards to his offense this year). I think he is getting information overload from Paul/Book/maybe coaches and he has gotten away from the types of plays you point out which had become instinctual and now he is overthinking it...paralysis by analysis. It's kind of like Mikal's hitch. He had a great shot in college and someone probably came a long and told him how he could make his shot even better, and it messed it up because he started thinking too much, and he hesitated taking 3s...remember last year early all the complaining about Mikal being so hesitant at the 3 pt line? Then when he'd take it, it would be after too much hesitation and with the hitch?

I have never been overly concerned with Ayton's offense because I've seen those instinctual plays you point out, and at AZ, and last year. He still needs to add some things he never had, like drawing more fouls and getting to the line, maybe putting it on the floor a little more, establishing position, etc, but he has lost his instinct to some extent and I think it's because he keeps getting all kinds of information from different people after a very long offseason of 9 months.

You see the instincts come back on occasion or for a game or like that 3 game stretch and then it goes away. This didn't really happen from like 1/28- the end of the regular season before the bubble last year. Watch any highlights from those games..his offense looks WAY different than this year.

[bwgood77]

It wasn't the great pass but the awareness wasn't there either.

Also I don't get how this play can be misinterpreted as 4 other guys being more at fault (shooters not making themselves available, not a perfect dime) than the guy who was rolling down the lane with only a single defender in the restricted area not expecting and not catching the pass.

Just a bad pass...can't throw it behind a guy running..not usually going to work out. The other guys...they just were not open or moving...just watching.