NBA MVP Discussion 20/21 (Fresh poll ➥ Vote)

[ZemGOAT]

Kinda surprised with how this race is being portrayed.
Jokic should be the clear front runner.

[scrabbarista]

To those citing precendence ("only Westbrook's team was a low seed, and all other MVP's have been on top seeds," etc., etc.), I would remind you...

that Bbref's MVP Tracker is based purely on precedence,

and it currently has Jokic as more than 3x as likely to win as Embiid (49.0% to 14.7%) if the Award were given out today.

In fact, Jokic has a higher percentage than the next eight candidates combined.

Jokic averages more than 2.5x as many APG as Embiid and still averages fewer TO's. Jokic shoots better from two, from three, and from the line, even with Embiid annihilating his own career highs in all three. People need to stop pretending like Embiid is on the same level as Jokic as an offensive player. It isn't close.

The thing when people compare them offensively is they look at assist numbers, and talk about passing. Nobody is talking about playmaking. And comparing Jokic's playmaking to Embiid's or any other Center in the history of the league, is like comparing Stokton to Dennis Smith JR or MCW or Frank Ntilikina ...
And again I think Embiid is 1st in the race right now thanks to 76ers record.

The thought of comparing Stockton and DSJ's play-making really made me laugh. Thanks for that.

[Suns_RoadRunner]

Hypothetical: If the Suns miraculously finish with the best record in the West, or even the NBA, what are the odds Chris Paul or Devin Booker wins league MVP?

The Suns have been a laughingstock for over a decade. The first year CP3 gets here and we win the West? Sounds like 04-05 Sunderella Suns with Nash taking home the hardware all over again. I’d love to see it and CP3 finally win league MVP.

[scrabbarista]

Hypothetical: If the Suns miraculously finish with the best record in the West, or even the NBA, what are the odds Chris Paul or Devin Booker wins league MVP?

The Suns have been a laughingstock for over a decade. The first year CP3 gets here and we win the West? Sounds like 04-05 Sunderella Suns with Nash taking home the hardware all over again. I’d love to see it and CP3 finally win league MVP.

Close to zero. It would take Embiid and Jokic missing another 15 games a piece, the Lakers dropping to like the fifth seed, Kawhi missing time, KD stealing Harden's shine, and then the Bucks finishing in like third or worse. And even then, it still wouldn't happen. The Suns are an extremely balanced team. CP3 is averaging 16 ppg in the highest-offense season in NBA history. He's not leading the league in assists. He's out of the running. I think Booker is more realistic (projecting to the season's end, because he has more potential to explode individually), but bruh... c'mon. All-Star reserve Devin Booker as MVP in the same season? One of the most hated-on players of the last five seasons? I don't see it.

[LoneyROY]

Harden's last 10 games are wild.

28/12/10 on 52 percent and 48 percent from 3.

[BelgradeNugget]

Jokic last 10

29/10.2/8.5/1.8/0.7 on 57.4/47.5/97.9

crazy

[dygaction]

Hypothetical: If the Suns miraculously finish with the best record in the West, or even the NBA, what are the odds Chris Paul or Devin Booker wins league MVP?

The Suns have been a laughingstock for over a decade. The first year CP3 gets here and we win the West? Sounds like 04-05 Sunderella Suns with Nash taking home the hardware all over again. I’d love to see it and CP3 finally win league MVP.

That will be a cool story, but it would also be the least impressive MVP looking back. Even Nash's MVP has been often questioned - he was shooting a lot better, putting up more impressive stat lines and advanced categories. This year's deserving candidates are also way more competitive than Nash's two years.

[scrabbarista]

Jokic last 10

29/10.2/8.5/1.8/0.7 on 57.4/47.5/97.9

crazy

And a 4.25-1 AST/TO ratio, compared to 2.73-1 for Harden (over the last 10).

Jokic has been about as close to perfect as it's possible to be over this stretch, but two two-point losses to the Wiz swung the Nuggs from 8-2 to 6-4.

[LoneyROY]

Jokic last 10

29/10.2/8.5/1.8/0.7 on 57.4/47.5/97.9

crazy

And a 4.25-1 AST/TO ratio, compared to 2.73-1 for Harden (over the last 10).

Jokic has been about as close to perfect as it's possible to be over this stretch, but two 2-point losses have swung the Nuggs from 8-2 to 6-4.

And Harden's team is 9-1 over that stretch with no KD and multiple missed games from Kyrie...

Beating 5 western playoff teams in the process.

[scrabbarista]

Jokic last 10

29/10.2/8.5/1.8/0.7 on 57.4/47.5/97.9

crazy

And a 4.25-1 AST/TO ratio, compared to 2.73-1 for Harden (over the last 10).

Jokic has been about as close to perfect as it's possible to be over this stretch, but two 2-point losses have swung the Nuggs from 8-2 to 6-4.

And Harden's team is 9-1 over that stretch with no KD and multiple missed games from Kyrie...

Beating 5 western playoff teams in the process.

The Nets have been a net neutral with Harden off the floor over this stretch, and the Nuggs have been a net negative without Jokic. That's essentially the difference (that and those two -2 games against WAS - as I said... two shots away from being 8-2). Meanwhile, Harden's other team has lost 13 in a row after they started the season 3-6 with him, lol.

When Harden was going through a five game stretch of averaging 17.4/10.0/5.0/1.0 on .378/.256/.875 and sitting out for a (sixth) game,

Jokic was playing every night and putting up 25.3/10.8/8.3/2.2 on .553/.368/.838 over that same stretch.

Harden had a lot of ground to make up, and the crazy thing is that even as well as he's playing over the last ten games, Jokic is still playing better. The numbers speak for themselves.

[LoneyROY]

And a 4.25-1 AST/TO ratio, compared to 2.73-1 for Harden (over the last 10).

Jokic has been about as close to perfect as it's possible to be over this stretch, but two 2-point losses have swung the Nuggs from 8-2 to 6-4.

And Harden's team is 9-1 over that stretch with no KD and multiple missed games from Kyrie...

Beating 5 western playoff teams in the process.

The Nets have been a net neutral with Harden off the floor over this stretch, and the Nuggs have been a net negative without Jokic. That's essentially the difference (that and those two -2 games against WAS - as I said... two shots away from being 8-2). Meanwhile, Harden's other team has lost 13 in a row after they started the season 3-6 with him, lol.

When Harden was going through a five game stretch of averaging 17.4/10.0/5.0/1.0 ppg on .378/.256/.875 and sitting out a game,

Jokic was playing every night and putting up 25.3/10.8/8.3/2.2 on .553/.368/.838 over that same stretch.

Harden had a lot of ground to make up, and the crazy thing is that even as well as he's playing over the last ten games, Jokic is still playing better. The numbers speak for themselves.

So your argument is Harden's statline when he was visibly trying to get traded? Lol sure okay. Yes, the Rockets are a bad basketball team...probably why he was so desperate to get traded, huh?

Harden is currently putting up dominant numbers WHILE winning and being at the top of the conference.

Jokic is playing fantastic this season, without a question, but winning is a very big factor in these kind of discussions.

[scrabbarista]

And Harden's team is 9-1 over that stretch with no KD and multiple missed games from Kyrie...

Beating 5 western playoff teams in the process.

The Nets have been a net neutral with Harden off the floor over this stretch, and the Nuggs have been a net negative without Jokic. That's essentially the difference (that and those two -2 games against WAS - as I said... two shots away from being 8-2). Meanwhile, Harden's other team has lost 13 in a row after they started the season 3-6 with him, lol.

When Harden was going through a five game stretch of averaging 17.4/10.0/5.0/1.0 ppg on .378/.256/.875 and sitting out a game,

Jokic was playing every night and putting up 25.3/10.8/8.3/2.2 on .553/.368/.838 over that same stretch.

Harden had a lot of ground to make up, and the crazy thing is that even as well as he's playing over the last ten games, Jokic is still playing better. The numbers speak for themselves.

So your argument is Harden's statline when he was visibly trying to get traded? Lol sure okay. Yes, the Rockets are a bad basketball team...probably why he was so desperate to get traded, huh?

Harden is currently putting up dominant numbers WHILE winning and being at the top of the conference.

Jokic is playing fantastic this season, without a question, but winning is a very big factor in these kind of discussions.

So your argument FOR Harden is that he was trying to lose?

[LoneyROY]

The Nets have been a net neutral with Harden off the floor over this stretch, and the Nuggs have been a net negative without Jokic. That's essentially the difference (that and those two -2 games against WAS - as I said... two shots away from being 8-2). Meanwhile, Harden's other team has lost 13 in a row after they started the season 3-6 with him, lol.

When Harden was going through a five game stretch of averaging 17.4/10.0/5.0/1.0 ppg on .378/.256/.875 and sitting out a game,

Jokic was playing every night and putting up 25.3/10.8/8.3/2.2 on .553/.368/.838 over that same stretch.

Harden had a lot of ground to make up, and the crazy thing is that even as well as he's playing over the last ten games, Jokic is still playing better. The numbers speak for themselves.

So your argument is Harden's statline when he was visibly trying to get traded? Lol sure okay. Yes, the Rockets are a bad basketball team...probably why he was so desperate to get traded, huh?

Harden is currently putting up dominant numbers WHILE winning and being at the top of the conference.

Jokic is playing fantastic this season, without a question, but winning is a very big factor in these kind of discussions.

So your argument FOR Harden is that he was trying to lose?

He was trying to get traded. Obviously, that is something many will hold against him in this argument and that's fair.

I'm personally looking at his performance with Brooklyn and his recent dominant stretch. This race has just begun...there's plenty of chapters to be written.

[Openheimer]

Harden's last 10 games are wild.

28/12/10 on 52 percent and 48 percent from 3.

Even if he don’t win MVP he has re-established him as the best combo guard on the planet and a top 5 player. He has been insane

[LoneyROY]

Harden's last 10 games are wild.

28/12/10 on 52 percent and 48 percent from 3.

Even if he don’t win MVP he has re-established him as the best combo guard on the planet and a top 5 player. He has been insane

I wasn't aware that was ever unestablished.

[Openheimer]

Harden's last 10 games are wild.

28/12/10 on 52 percent and 48 percent from 3.

Even if he don’t win MVP he has re-established him as the best combo guard on the planet and a top 5 player. He has been insane

I wasn't aware that was ever unestablished.

The media had him ranked 9th at the start of the season which was hilarious. The guy is by far the best playmaker/scoring guard in the nba and they had him ranked 9th.

[Genjuro]

Luka has had dissapointing team success this year while shooting poorly from the 3.

He's having his best 3-point shooting season by far at 35.7%. And if you remove the four December games of the season, he's over 38%. And since February, he's over 44%.

I'm not sure this is sustainable because his free-throw is not that solid, but I'm not sure you've been watching him lately (or checking his stats).

[scrabbarista]

Jokic became the second center with 50 triple doubles, but he did it like 200 games faster than the first, Wilt Chamberlain.

When asked about it, Joker said, "It's an honor to be in that group. Wait... is it a group? There's only two of us."

[the_process]

A word of caution when looking at On-Off and similar "impact" stats. Players (e.g., Embiid) who miss games have their numbers inflated by the fact that their team is forced to face the opposing team's starters without them. The more games a player misses, especially against good teams (again, Embiid), the more likely he is to benefit from this phenomenon. A similar phenomenon occurs with players who don't miss games, but often play against opposing benches (e.g., James).

When a player never misses any games and rarely plays against opposing benches - like Jokic, for example - his raw On-Off numbers are going to be deflated, relative to players who do those two things.

So, while Embiid was resting as Jokic (+24) and the Nuggets cruised past his team, Embiid's "impact numbers" were going up. Same thing when the Jazz beat PHI by double digits. This kind of thing - the element of leaving your team to face opposing starters without you - is one of the reasons I tend to err on the side of total production when I evaluate MVP candidates, though I do also factor in On-Off and OnCourt numbers.

Are you factoring in defense? Asking for a friend.

[theonlyclutch]

The effort by Denver fans to downplay Embiid's offense is pretty hilarious, PHI has a 119.6 ORTG with Embiid on-court which is elite and fairly close to DEN's 121.3 ORTG with Jokic on-court. This is despite PHI having less shooters and therefore significantly less proficient and prolific at taking threes (having Simmons at PG does that for you). The idea that somehow Embiid isn't also an A+ offensive centerpiece playing the way he is right now is ridiculous.