RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #69 (Vince Carter)

[Odinn21]

I guess it won't be relevant but for some reason I wanted to look at win rate of the top 40 players. I might expand it to full 68 but it took too much time and I got bored near #36 already.

1. 839-426 (.663, 54.4w per 82) in r. season & 172-88 (.662) in playoffs for LeBron James
2. 706-366 (.659, 54.0w per 82) in r. season & 119-60 (.665) in playoffs for Michael Jordan
3. 1074-486 (.688, 56.5w per 82) in r. season & 154-83 (.650) in playoffs for Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. 690-273 (.717, 58.8w per 82) in r. season & 107-58 (.648) in playoffs for Bill Russell
5. 1001-391 (.719, 59.0w per 82) in r. season & 157-94 (.625) in playoffs for Tim Duncan
6. 672-373 (.643, 52.7w per 82) in r. season & 88-72 (.550) in playoffs for Wilt Chamberlain
7. 670-236 (.740, 60.6w per 82) in r. season & 128-62 (.674) in playoffs for Magic Johnson
8. 819-388 (.679, 55.6w per 82) in r. season & 129-87 (.597) in playoffs for Shaquille O'Neal
9. 732-506 (.591, 48.5w per 82) in r. season & 76-69 (.524) in playoffs for Hakeem Olajuwon
10. 660-237 (.736, 60.3w per 82) in r. season & 99-65 (.604) in playoffs for Larry Bird
11. 825-637 (.564, 46.3w per 82) in r. season & 70-73 (.490) in playoffs for Kevin Garnett
12. 836-510 (.621, 50.9w per 82) in r. season & 135-89 (.603) in playoffs for Kobe Bryant
13. 595-337 (.638, 52.3w per 82) in r. season & 87-66 (.569) in playoffs for Jerry West
14. 627-413 (.603, 49.4w per 82) in r. season & 46-40 (.535) in playoffs for Oscar Robertson
15. 916-606 (.602, 49.4w per 82) in r. season & 69-76 (.476) in playoffs for Dirk Nowitzki
16. 952-524 (.645, 52.9w per 82) in r. season & 98-95 (.508) in playoffs for Karl Malone
17. 673-314 (.682, 55.9w per 82) in r. season & 70-53 (.569) in playoffs for David Robinson
18. 815-428 (.656, 53.8w per 82) in r. season & 113-76 (.598) in playoffs for Julius Erving
19. 292-147 (.665, 54.5w per 82) in r. season & 49-21 (.700) in playoffs for George Mikan
20. 780-675 (.536, 44.0w per 82) in r. season & 51-49 (.510) in playoffs for Moses Malone
21. 658-415 (.613, 50.3w per 82) in r. season & 62-61 (.504) in playoffs for Charles Barkley
22. 528-321 (.622, 51.0w per 82) in r. season & 88-51 (.633) in playoffs for Kevin Durant
23. 649-371 (.636, 52.2w per 82) in r. season & 53-56 (.486) in playoffs for Chris Paul
24. 463-236 (.662, 54.3w per 82) in r. season & 77-35 (.688) in playoffs for Stephen Curry
25. 426-366 (.538, 44.1w per 82) in r. season & 45-43 (.511) in playoffs for Bob Pettit
26. 953-551 (.634, 52.0w per 82) in r. season & 89-93 (.489) in playoffs for John Stockton
27. 764-453 (.628, 51.5w per 82) in r. season & 57-63 (.475) in playoffs for Steve Nash
28. 611-443 (.580, 47.5w per 82) in r. season & 105-72 (.593) in playoffs for Dwyane Wade
29. 678-505 (.573, 47.0w per 82) in r. season & 72-67 (.518) in playoffs for Patrick Ewing
30. 485-340 (.588, 48.2w per 82) in r. season & 54-39 (.581) in playoffs for Walt Frazier
31. 541-292 (.649, 53.3w per 82) in r. season & 66-62 (.516) in playoffs for James Harden
32. 810-368 (.688, 56.4w per 82) in r. season & 136-72 (.654) in playoffs for Scottie Pippen
33. 473-373 (.559, 45.8w per 82) in r. season & 72-62 (.537) in playoffs for Elgin Baylor
34. 824-446 (.649, 53.2w per 82) in r. season & 108-64 (.628) in playoffs for John Havlicek
35. 565-455 (.554, 45.4w per 82) in r. season & 53-52 (.505) in playoffs for Rick Baryy
36. 812-579 (.584, 47.9w per 82) in r. season & 79-79 (.500) in playoffs for Jason Kidd
37. 575-485 (.542, 44.5w per 82) in r. season & 34-50 (.405) in playoffs for George Gervin
38. 665-421 (.612, 50.2w per 82) in r. season & 74-71 (.510) in playoffs for Clyde Drexler
39. 767-622 (.552, 45.3w per 82) in r. season & 76-68 (.528) in playoffs for Reggie Miller
40. 724-605 (.545, 44.7w per 82) in r. season & 51-49 (.510) in playoffs for Artis Gilmore

Notes;
- First and foremost; this is not to say one player deserved a place over another. Each player has their unique cases and we already discussed over them and reached these results. This was in my head and after looking them for over an hour, I thought it might be good to share them.
- The numbers do not include the ongoing 2020-21 NBA season.
- However the numbers do include the ABA seasons.
- The NBA didn't have playoffs 1st rounds until 1975. Also, from 1975 to 1983, the highest seed teams avoided playing in the 1st rounds. 1984 was the year the 1st rounds did become standard for every team in the playoffs. So, that's the reason why players from the '60s and the '70s have a bigger disparity between their regular season and playoffs win rates. (Cries in Gervin)

[LA Bird]

1. Vince Carter
2. Rasheed Wallace
3. Bobby Jones

Other: Unseld > Nique > English > Parker > Giannis > Jokic > Walton

Carter - His scoring numbers at his peak in 01 were identical to Kobe's that season (36.7 pp100 on +3.3 rTS% vs 36.4 pp100 on +3.4 rTS%), he can shoot 3s, he can pass and he is a solid defender. He had a surprisingly good post-prime career after his athleticism declined and I consider his 13 season to be a strong contender for 6MOY that year. Overall, Carter has consistently rated well in +/- stats and he still has the most double digit on/off seasons of any player in the last 25 years besides LeBron and Garnett.

Sheed - Probably the best 3&D big ever. Also a versatile scorer who shoots good percentages in the post and mid range. Rates very highly in all impact metrics and the 04 Pistons acquiring him lifted them briefly to GOAT level defense similar to the Holzman Knicks with DeBusschere.

Jones - One of the most well-rounded team players. His main weakness is his low playing time but Ginobili is in the same boat and he was voted in long ago. An underrated athlete with a higher high jump than Wilt (tied with McAdoo for state record actually).

Speaking of McAdoo, I don't know how people can justify a 30 spot difference between him and Reed who was voted in at 45. Comparable peaks and ~5 year primes. The two are more or less tied IMO.

[Dutchball97]

Does anyone have any opinion about the chances of players like Dame, PG and Butler?

They're players who definitely hadn't done enough last time around to make the list but they also might not have turned as many heads in the last 3 years as the likes of Kawhi, AD and Giannis. Because of that they might fly under the radar a bit.

I don't think any of Dame, PG or Butler should be voted in at #70 but looking at what they've done so far I really don't see how they shouldn't at least be in the conversation for the top 100.

Edit: Kyrie Irving as well.

[LA Bird]

Does anyone have any opinion about the chances of players like Dame, PG and Butler?

They're players who definitely hadn't done enough last time around to make the list but they also might not have turned as many heads in the last 3 years as the likes of Kawhi, AD and Giannis. Because of that they might fly under the radar a bit.

I don't think any of Dame, PG or Butler should be voted in at #70 but looking at what they've done so far I really don't see how they shouldn't at least be in the conversation for the top 100.

Edit: Kyrie Irving as well.

Lillard is a clear lock. George and Butler will likely make it too. If I have to guess, Lowry will be in the top 100 before Kyrie.

LaMarcus Aldridge deserves to be in the discussion too. He was in the honorable mentions last time already and he has added some strong seasons lately (2018 arguably his peak). This is probably a very unpopular opinion but IMO, Aldridge is a better player than Bosh who gets ranked in the 70s or 80s because of his rings.

[Dutchball97]

Does anyone have any opinion about the chances of players like Dame, PG and Butler?

They're players who definitely hadn't done enough last time around to make the list but they also might not have turned as many heads in the last 3 years as the likes of Kawhi, AD and Giannis. Because of that they might fly under the radar a bit.

I don't think any of Dame, PG or Butler should be voted in at #70 but looking at what they've done so far I really don't see how they shouldn't at least be in the conversation for the top 100.

Edit: Kyrie Irving as well.

Lillard is a clear lock. George and Butler will likely make it too. If I have to guess, Lowry will be in the top 100 before Kyrie.

LaMarcus Aldridge deserves to be in the discussion too. He was in the honorable mentions last time already and he has added some strong seasons lately (2018 arguably his peak). This is probably a very unpopular opinion but IMO, Aldridge is a better player than Bosh who gets ranked in the 70s or 80s because of his rings.

Aldridge vs Bosh is definitely an interesting discussion to be had. Their peak and longevity is pretty much a wash with probably even an advantage for Aldridge there but in terms of play-offs I do think Bosh has a clear lead there. There is still an argument to be had that Bosh didn't necessarily play much better in the play-offs but was just lucky to be part of some stacked Heat teams so I could be swayed otherwise still.

[trex_8063]

I guess it won't be relevant but for some reason I wanted to look at win rate of the top 40 players. I might expand it to full 68 but it took too much time and I got bored near #36 already.

1. 839-426 (.663, 54.4w per 82) in r. season & 172-88 (.662) in playoffs for LeBron James
2. 706-366 (.659, 54.0w per 82) in r. season & 119-60 (.665) in playoffs for Michael Jordan
3. 1074-486 (.688, 56.5w per 82) in r. season & 154-83 (.650) in playoffs for Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. 690-273 (.717, 58.8w per 82) in r. season & 107-58 (.648) in playoffs for Bill Russell
5. 1001-391 (.719, 59.0w per 82) in r. season & 157-94 (.625) in playoffs for Tim Duncan
6. 672-373 (.643, 52.7w per 82) in r. season & 88-72 (.550) in playoffs for Wilt Chamberlain
7. 670-236 (.740, 60.6w per 82) in r. season & 128-62 (.674) in playoffs for Magic Johnson
8. 819-388 (.679, 55.6w per 82) in r. season & 129-87 (.597) in playoffs for Shaquille O'Neal
9. 732-506 (.591, 48.5w per 82) in r. season & 76-69 (.524) in playoffs for Hakeem Olajuwon
10. 660-237 (.736, 60.3w per 82) in r. season & 99-65 (.604) in playoffs for Larry Bird
11. 825-637 (.564, 46.3w per 82) in r. season & 70-73 (.490) in playoffs for Kevin Garnett
12. 836-510 (.621, 50.9w per 82) in r. season & 135-89 (.603) in playoffs for Kobe Bryant
13. 595-337 (.638, 52.3w per 82) in r. season & 87-66 (.569) in playoffs for Jerry West
14. 627-413 (.603, 49.4w per 82) in r. season & 46-40 (.535) in playoffs for Oscar Robertson
15. 916-606 (.602, 49.4w per 82) in r. season & 69-76 (.476) in playoffs for Dirk Nowitzki
16. 952-524 (.645, 52.9w per 82) in r. season & 98-95 (.508) in playoffs for Karl Malone
17. 673-314 (.682, 55.9w per 82) in r. season & 70-53 (.569) in playoffs for David Robinson
18. 815-428 (.656, 53.8w per 82) in r. season & 113-76 (.598) in playoffs for Julius Erving
19. 292-147 (.665, 54.5w per 82) in r. season & 49-21 (.700) in playoffs for George Mikan
20. 780-675 (.536, 44.0w per 82) in r. season & 51-49 (.510) in playoffs for Moses Malone
21. 658-415 (.613, 50.3w per 82) in r. season & 62-61 (.504) in playoffs for Charles Barkley
22. 528-321 (.622, 51.0w per 82) in r. season & 88-51 (.633) in playoffs for Kevin Durant
23. 649-371 (.636, 52.2w per 82) in r. season & 53-56 (.486) in playoffs for Chris Paul
24. 463-236 (.662, 54.3w per 82) in r. season & 77-35 (.688) in playoffs for Stephen Curry
25. 426-366 (.538, 44.1w per 82) in r. season & 45-43 (.511) in playoffs for Bob Pettit
26. 953-551 (.634, 52.0w per 82) in r. season & 89-93 (.489) in playoffs for John Stockton
27. 764-453 (.628, 51.5w per 82) in r. season & 57-63 (.475) in playoffs for Steve Nash
28. 611-443 (.580, 47.5w per 82) in r. season & 105-72 (.593) in playoffs for Dwyane Wade
29. 678-505 (.573, 47.0w per 82) in r. season & 72-67 (.518) in playoffs for Patrick Ewing
30. 485-340 (.588, 48.2w per 82) in r. season & 54-39 (.581) in playoffs for Walt Frazier
31. 541-292 (.649, 53.3w per 82) in r. season & 66-62 (.516) in playoffs for James Harden
32. 810-368 (.688, 56.4w per 82) in r. season & 136-72 (.654) in playoffs for Scottie Pippen
33. 473-373 (.559, 45.8w per 82) in r. season & 72-62 (.537) in playoffs for Elgin Baylor
34. 824-446 (.649, 53.2w per 82) in r. season & 108-64 (.628) in playoffs for John Havlicek
35. 565-455 (.554, 45.4w per 82) in r. season & 53-52 (.505) in playoffs for Rick Baryy
36. 812-579 (.584, 47.9w per 82) in r. season & 79-79 (.500) in playoffs for Jason Kidd
37. 575-485 (.542, 44.5w per 82) in r. season & 34-50 (.405) in playoffs for George Gervin
38. 665-421 (.612, 50.2w per 82) in r. season & 74-71 (.510) in playoffs for Clyde Drexler
39. 767-622 (.552, 45.3w per 82) in r. season & 76-68 (.528) in playoffs for Reggie Miller
40. 724-605 (.545, 44.7w per 82) in r. season & 51-49 (.510) in playoffs for Artis Gilmore

Notes;
- First and foremost; this is not to say one player deserved a place over another. Each player has their unique cases and we already discussed over them and reached these results. This was in my head and after looking them for over an hour, I thought it might be good to share them.
- The numbers do not include the ongoing 2020-21 NBA season.
- However the numbers do include the ABA seasons.
- The NBA didn't have playoffs 1st rounds until 1975. Also, from 1975 to 1983, the highest seed teams avoided playing in the 1st rounds. 1984 was the year the 1st rounds did become standard for every team in the playoffs. So, that's the reason why players from the '60s and the '70s have a bigger disparity between their regular season and playoffs win rates. (Cries in Gervin)

I have this data for every player who has come up or will come up, plus [for the rs at least] the team record in games he actually dressed for and the games he was out for. If there's anyone you want to know about, just ask.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #26:

Vince Carter - 3 (Joao Saraiva, LA Bird, sansterre)
Dominique Wilkins - 2 (Cavsfansince84, Hal14)
Wes Unseld - 1 (trex_8063)
Bill Walton - 1 (HeartBreakKid)
Tony Parker - 1 (Odinn21)
Giannis Antetokounmpo - 1 (Dutchball97)
Bobby Jones - 1 (penbeast0)


10 votes requires 6 for a majority. Single-vote recipients are axed first. That transfers one more to Carter, ghosts the other four.....

Carter - 4
Wilkins - 2
(ghosted) - 4

So Carter is a default winner, which will have to be validated against Wilkins (cannot lose to Wilkins in Condorcet, in order to avoid runoff). He actually beats Nique very soundly, as those two 1st place votes are the ONLY two that favour Wilkins in this comp (Carter claims the other 8).

So Carter takes this spot.

Spoiler:

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[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]

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