2021 NBA Draft Thread

[B8RcDeMktfxC]

dupe

[bbms]

Well firstly I don't want to come across as though I dislike Mobley as a prospect because I actually think he's great. Bolt and I have had this discussion I think on this very thread. I just don't think he's in the tier of big man that can be just as valuable as an elite wing or perimeter initiator (which is what I think OKC needs most). It's clear he's skilled and has two way capability and does the good glue stuff for big men. He's an intelligent and gifted passer especially in short roll scenarios hitting the corners. He's a great rim protector and his J makes me think he'll one day be an awesome play finisher despite the current low volume from 3. When I look at Mobley though I see more Celtics era Horford than I do Jokic/Embiid (both from a physicality and skill perspective). I don't think his self creation is in unicorn territory and I don't think his defense (while very good) is game-breakingly paint erasing a la Gobert/Mutumbo etc. I think his touch is good on his runners and push shots (and basically off any look created for him) but the post turnarounds and jump hooks I think are kinda clunky overall for him even in mismatch scenarios. Big men stats tend to get inflated at the college level and I see All Star level role player more than 1st option on a playoff team is what it boils down to for me.

What if Mobley's chances to be Gobert with range equals Cade's chance to be SGA on offense?

I don't think it does? Not sure how you want me to answer this lol but if we're talking about Mobley vs. Cade as they are I'd rather OKC draft Cade. I think Matt Pennie made a good point on the last Game Theory about what prospects at the top GMs are going to be sweating over not drafting. Mobley's range of outcomes at this point to me signal that he's just not going to function at his best as a primary initiator and probably gonna be in a more complementary table set role compared to the other kids in the top 5. And there's nothing "wrong" with being that guy. Again I think Mobley is really good and I have him 5th on my board. I just value the upside of guys who have more foundation as live dribble scorers/initiators and think the 4 guys ahead of him are better than him in that category.

Does Cade have the chance to be an initiator on an NBA offense?

[ThunderBolt]

Agreed it's frustratingly hard to find a concrete answer. However, I think the two key points are (i) that it is a "play-in tournament" and (ii) the 14 teams that don't make the playoffs are in the lottery (this one per tankathon, but there are other sources).

That seems to indicate that the teams that don't make the playoffs through the play-in tourney are the ones in the lottery.

This intuitively makes the most sense to me. Obviously my intuition doesn't mean anything, but like Dadouv said, it'd be strange (but hilarious) if the 10th seed won the championship and the lottery.

The one thing I did read on one reliable site is let’s say the 9 seed beats the 8th seed twice in the play in game. They become the 8th seed. It’s. Its not a 1 vs 9 match up. So that makes me think that in this example the team that was the 9th seed and is now the 8th seed is no longer in the lottery. Also last year the draft was held right after the play in tournament and not before. My guess is because technically it could change.

So technically okc could make the play in and keep their pick as long as they don’t win both games. I think.

[Dadouv47]

These play in/lottery odds are so weird that if Miami loses in the play in and some other teams with a 8-10 seed win their play in series, they could get a bottom 10-12 record.

yeah it's really unlikely but at least even a pessimistic guy like me can dream a bit

[ThunderBolt]

Some interesting comments from Vecenie's article on Mobley. I tend to agree with the first paragraph. The article talks about how he's such a humble, hard working kid despite not being flashy. Some people hold that against him as being passive but I view it as a strength. He's a guy that I don't worry about not being as happy in OKC despite being an LA kid. I'm not sure I totally feel the same way about Green.


https://theathletic.com/2472409/2021/03/26/evan-mobley-humble-and-skillful-can-carry-usc-mens-basketball-to-new-level-in-ncaa-tournament/?source=emp_shared_article

Spoiler:

This line of thought isn’t just one person’s perspective, either. It has chased Mobley around much in the same way that it chased around James Wiseman due to his quiet nature. Or the way it chases around Deandre Ayton. Sometimes, you’ll even hear it with Karl-Anthony Towns. Heck, the word “passive” still chases around Anthony Davis. All top picks. All the same question. It’s almost a rite of passage. Any time a big man doesn’t dominate every game he’s on the court and take a ton of shots, it seems like this question comes up. Such is the conundrum of the teenage big man in college basketball — especially guys who don’t produce the explosive highlight. Guys such as Cade Cunningham and Jalen Suggs handle the ball constantly and make their presence felt in ways that are visible to the naked eye. Someone like Greg Brown can throw down a monster dunk. Mobley isn’t about that.

In many ways, Mobley is a descendant of the Tim Duncan School of Fundamentals. When he dunks the ball, he just puts it in the hoop as opposed to jamming it home. A lot of his work is done fighting for position early despite a skinny frame. He’s an elite athlete but in ways that aren’t readily apparent. Whereas someone like DeAndre Jordan is an explosive leaper, Mobley is about as fluid an athlete as I’ve ever seen for being 7-foot tall. His lateral quickness and first-step agility are outrageous. His body control is unlike any gangly 7-footer’s since Davis. He can flip and drop his hips like he’s a normal-sized human, sliding all over the court and making his 7-foot-4 wingspan felt. He’s one of the more ambidextrous bigs I’ve evaluated, both in terms of handle and finishing ability.

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?

Synergy, he took 18 percent of his shots out of rolls, 15 percent out of post-ups, 15 percent out of spot-ups, 12 percent out of cuts/dump-offs, 11 percent on offensive rebounds, 9 percent out in transition and 7 percent out of pure isolation. He also ran 11 pick-and-rolls as a ballhandler this season, scoring on six of them. He can get his offense in such a wide variety of ways because of how versatile his skill set is. To me, this actually portends some real potential as a shot-creating center in the modern era. He has real perimeter skills that he’s been developing since before he was tall.

[Dadouv47]

I could see a lot of teams willing to move down from the 2nd pick (Wolves, Cavs, Rockets, maybe Pistons) but a 8 to 2nd pick is really difficult

[Devilanche]

What happen to last year draft with respect to play in teams?

[ThunderBolt]

What happen to last year draft with respect to play in teams?

Portland was the higher seed and beat Memphis so it had no impact on the standing. Also, the eastern conference teams didn't qualify for the play-in because they sucked too much.

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[retrobro90]

What if Mobley's chances to be Gobert with range equals Cade's chance to be SGA on offense?

I don't think it does? Not sure how you want me to answer this lol but if we're talking about Mobley vs. Cade as they are I'd rather OKC draft Cade. I think Matt Pennie made a good point on the last Game Theory about what prospects at the top GMs are going to be sweating over not drafting. Mobley's range of outcomes at this point to me signal that he's just not going to function at his best as a primary initiator and probably gonna be in a more complementary table set role compared to the other kids in the top 5. And there's nothing "wrong" with being that guy. Again I think Mobley is really good and I have him 5th on my board. I just value the upside of guys who have more foundation as live dribble scorers/initiators and think the 4 guys ahead of him are better than him in that category.

Does Cade have the chance to be an initiator on an NBA offense?

Yes. Very much so.

[ThunderBolt]

I don't think it does? Not sure how you want me to answer this lol but if we're talking about Mobley vs. Cade as they are I'd rather OKC draft Cade. I think Matt Pennie made a good point on the last Game Theory about what prospects at the top GMs are going to be sweating over not drafting. Mobley's range of outcomes at this point to me signal that he's just not going to function at his best as a primary initiator and probably gonna be in a more complementary table set role compared to the other kids in the top 5. And there's nothing "wrong" with being that guy. Again I think Mobley is really good and I have him 5th on my board. I just value the upside of guys who have more foundation as live dribble scorers/initiators and think the 4 guys ahead of him are better than him in that category.

Does Cade have the chance to be an initiator on an NBA offense?

Yes. Very much so.

Question since I've watched more of Mobely than Cade. The turnovers are by Cade are odd for me. I hear it often blamed on him not having good teammates. However wouldn't that result in lower assists and not necessarily high turnovers? I'm assuming the OSU teammates are not so bad that when Cade throws a dime they just let the pass hit them in the face, resulting in a turnover. Isn't this somewhat of a wart on Cade's playmaking? I'm not saying that even if this is true he shouldn't be the number one pick. Just wondering.

[Devilanche]

What happen to last year draft with respect to play in teams?

Portland was the higher seed and beat Memphis so it had no impact on the standing. Also, the eastern conference teams didn't qualify for the play-in because they sucked too much.

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https://www.si.com/nba/2020/06/16/nba-draft-2020-schedule-dates

If you can understand nba speak . Here mention something about lotto with respect to play in teams

One key thing to note here is that the back end of the lottery and associated odds (picks nine through 14) will still be determined by teams’ regular-season records through March 11. As things stand, that means Washington, Phoenix, San Antonio, Sacramento and New Orleans (with a 12/13 tiebreaker on the table) and Portland, in that order. If any of those teams winds up making it into the playoffs at the conclusion of the final eight-game regular-season slate in Orlando, they’ll be replaced in the lottery by whichever team(s) fall out.

[retrobro90]

Does Cade have the chance to be an initiator on an NBA offense?

Yes. Very much so.

Question since I've watched more of Mobely than Cade. The turnovers are by Cade are odd for me. I hear it often blamed on him not having good teammates. However wouldn't that result in lower assists and not necessarily high turnovers? I'm assuming the OSU teammates are not so bad that when Cade throws a dime they just let the pass hit them in the face, resulting in a turnover. Isn't this somewhat of a wart on Cade's playmaking? I'm not saying that even if this is true he shouldn't be the number one pick. Just wondering.

I'm also concerned about the high turnovers but mostly from a "how good is this guy's handle going to be in tight spaces" way. I haven't heard that poor teammates reasoning specifically for his high turnovers but probably for his AST/TO ratio. I feel like that's partially true by proxy although I think this OSU team is pretty decent from a talent perspective albeit ill fitting to Cade's style. What I mean is that the spacing is pretty rough on that squad so his drive and kick game is overall pretty weak in terms of the assist results but his potential assists on those possessions is quite impressive. Teams also load up on Cade so he's often just making the right read to pass out of the trap once he crosses the half court line so many of his teams actions are gonna be 4 on 3 with Isaac Likely or one of the Boones acting as sort of a Draymond leading the secondary break/delay action. Avery Anderson is probably their 2nd best scorer too but he doesn't give the ball up and takes a lot of unnecessary dribbles a la Waiters/Maggette etc.

I think the most impressive thing though to me about Cade is that after seeing him absolutely thrive for Team USA/Monteverde where he was an exquisite lead ball handler/passer that he went to a situation like OSU where he'd really have to learn how to adapt and work on his weaknesses. The question marks on his shooting and what he would do on a team without NBA spacing were answered and he's risen to the occasion. If you want to see how he looks as a playmaker with better spacing I'd recommend going back to watch the U19 games he played in. Outside of the Mali game (which might've honestly been his best game that solidified him as the #1 recruit) his turnovers were quite low and he makes every pass read you can out of ball screens. I think he's just so polished when it comes to playing an NBA style initiator role but OSU just doesn't have the personnel for him to get to run an offense the way he needs to.

[Dadouv47]

Timme should declare for the draft so we can make the GOAT duo of Poku/Timme

Tough to evaluate Gonzaga players but Kispert is some kind of ready player that could help an NBA team really soon. Don't want to draft him given is age (except if we decide to massively accelerate the rebuild).

[ThunderBolt]

Timme should declare for the draft so we can make the GOAT duo of Poku/Timme

Tough to evaluate Gonzaga players but Kispert is some kind of ready player that could help an NBA team really soon. Don't want to draft him given is age (except if we decide to massively accelerate the rebuild).

I don’t want to draft Kispert as our first pick but I’m not against taking him.

[Dadouv47]

Timme should declare for the draft so we can make the GOAT duo of Poku/Timme

Tough to evaluate Gonzaga players but Kispert is some kind of ready player that could help an NBA team really soon. Don't want to draft him given is age (except if we decide to massively accelerate the rebuild).

I don’t want to draft Kispert as our first pick but I’m not against taking him.

That's how I feel about every 6-10 prospect

[bbms]

I really doubt Presti is going to draft a college senior.

[namlede]

Wagner might be the best player for this team after #5.

Love his hustle, size, shot looks good, good passer, good rebounder, has team defender potential. Dunno if he will lock anyone down 1v1 but as long as he can hold his own. Unselfish.

Shai/Dort/Wagner/Poku/Brown

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[Dadouv47]

Wagner might be the best player for this team after #5.

Love his hustle, size, shot looks good, good passer, good rebounder, has team defender potential. Dunno if he will lock anyone down 1v1 but as long as he can hold his own. Unselfish.

Shai/Dort/Wagner/Poku/Brown

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I think he really is the best fit for this team but I'm looking to draft the best player available (because other than Shai, we don't know what our future line up will be).

Haven't watch enough of those guys so he might be the best prospect as well...

Feel like Wagner is the kind of player Presti must like.

[ThunderBolt]

I really doubt Presti is going to draft a college senior.

Probably not but he has taken a senior before with Huestis. It really depends on where out pick lands. We could continue to win more games than we want and get unlucky in the lottery.

[ThunderBolt]

Wagner might be the best player for this team after #5.

Love his hustle, size, shot looks good, good passer, good rebounder, has team defender potential. Dunno if he will lock anyone down 1v1 but as long as he can hold his own. Unselfish.

Shai/Dort/Wagner/Poku/Brown

Sent from my Pixel 2 using RealGM mobile app

I think he really is the best fit for this team but I'm looking to draft the best player available (because other than Shai, we don't know what our future line up will be).

Haven't watch enough of those guys so he might be the best prospect as well...

Feel like Wagner is the kind of player Presti must like.

I'm fine taking Wagner if we are outside the top five and can't trade up. Even though it feels like it's all star or bust, it's not that way at all. Getting a very good, complete player is never a bad thing. Chad Ford said Wagner rates very favorable in various analytics departments. I'm guessing that's why jambalaya was also high on him.

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