Our road back to the top

[Setshot33]

I can see Smart not getting that 3rd contract withe the Cs as he'll be over 30 during it. Depends on what else happens I guess.

Smart needs to go after the season.

Celts will never win a championship if Smart is the leader of the Celtics.

Nothing will change as long as Smart is around.

When Smart's out, these guys hang their head at the least bit of adversity and throw in the towel. Saw it first hand just a few months ago.
Either the mental makeup of supposed "stars" Tatum and Brown are weak or the coach is incapable of getting it out of them.

How would you suggest that's fixed when you ship Smart out?

[grindtime22]

To be fair he's played most of his minutes with the worst defensive players on the team like Grant, PP, Teague, Semi, etc.

Teague and Ojeleye actually have good on/off defensive numbers. Ojeleye isn't that surprising. He is solid and if he is on the court, you are going away from the double big. Teague..... I don't know how to explain that.

Even if you play with lineups, it is hard to find a positive impact on the defensive end with Timelord. Pairing him with Tatum doesn't even do much. The eye test tells you good things are happening, but I don't think it is clear cut. Part of the problem is that our defensive rebounding plummets. It plummets and teams convert those offensive rebounds at astounding rates. This isn't a new problem for Timelord either. Guys get beat, Timelord challenges (over challenges at times), it leaves an easy offensive rebound putback.

This is not true. Robert Williams is actually 2nd on the team for keeping players to below their shot %; the best is Jaylen Brown who holds players to under 3.9% of their regular shot percentage. Robert Williams comes in at 2%. Also, Robert Williams is coming in at 10th in the league for contested rebound percentage; that suggests that even though his numbers may not be impressive he is 1) grabbing quality rebounds and 2) capable of playing physically. Another thing to consider that if guys are getting beat to the rebound then it is because they are failing to box out their man.

I never said Robert wasn't a good individual rebounder. He is a fantastic rebounder. An absolute monster on both ends of the glass. He is great when he contests as well. I have no doubt about that. I don't think anybody does. It is after the contest when the problem happens. Maybe we can help him better, but I would bet that it isn't just guys not boxing out their guys. It is guys getting beat off the dribble, Rob helping, and then his man cleaning up the offensive glass. Maybe he isn't clearing out anybody either? Is he helping anybody else get boards or is it just him or bust. This wouldn't be the first athletic marvel to have this happen.

The fact that he is a great rebounder doesn't change that we don't defensive rebound well when he is on the court. Teams are rebounding 29.2% on the offensive glass with Robert on the floor. That is bad. It is 4.4% worse than when he is on the bench. This isn't an aberration either. It has happened his entire career. Teams are scoring 27pts per 100 misses with him on the court. That is in the bottom 3% of centers. Opponents offensive rating is 134.8 on those offensive rebounds. That is in the bottom 2%. That is 21.7pts worse with him on the court.

On the other hand, you have somebody like Thompson (who I don't like). The halfcourt defensive rating (before off rebounds) is actually almost the same for Thompson and Timelord. The experience on the defensive glass is completely different though. He isn't just a great individual defensive rebounder, but he also clears people out. Teams are only grabbing 22.6% with him on the court. And it wasn't the double big lineup, because it is actually even better with Thompson on and Theis off at 21.5%. Teams don't get nearly the amount of 2nd chance opportunities and they are less successful when they do, because Thompson isn't blocking any shots to end up out of position. That is my theory anyway.

Maybe the team needs to help the helper (RW) better. For whatever reason, we haven't been significantly better defensively with Timelord on the court. You can play around with lineups and it still isn't there. Our defensive rating is 113.0 and goes to 116.6 with him on the court. It is 111.3 with him on the bench. You can give him Tatum who has been an on/off monster his entire career. The defensive rating with Tatum is 112.0 overall. It is 110.5 without Timelord and 115.1 with Timelord. You can give him the Tatum/Brown combo and the rating is still worse with Timelord on than off, though not by much. What is consistent with all of these combos is that we are significantly worse on the defensive glass when Timelord is added to the mix.

This isn't a Timelord bashing session. I love the guy. I want to give him all the minutes he can handle. It just is what it is. The stuff he is good at on the defensive end is the stuff that is easiest to see. Everybody can see it. It jumps off the damn screen. Team defense isn't that easy to see. Right now, I think he is in the younger De Andre Jordan category where it looks like he is an elite defender, but he isn't. He is actually much more impactful on the offensive end.

*These are all Cleaning The Glass numbers, so you may find some differences.*

[Ernest]

I can see Smart not getting that 3rd contract withe the Cs as he'll be over 30 during it. Depends on what else happens I guess.

Smart needs to go after the season.

Celts will never win a championship if Smart is the leader of the Celtics.

Nothing will change as long as Smart is around.

When Smart's out, these guys hang their head at the least bit of adversity and throw in the towel. Saw it first hand just a few months ago.
Either the mental makeup of supposed "stars" Tatum and Brown are weak or the coach is incapable of getting it out of them.

How would you suggest that's fixed when you ship Smart out?

Not saying him going out was what started all the losing, but weren't we at the top of the east for a minute there early on? Does anyone have the numbers for our record before Smart injury, during and after?

[threrf23]

Not saying him going out was what started all the losing, but weren't we at the top of the east for a minute there early on? Does anyone have the numbers for our record before Smart injury, during and after?

It was Kemba's return that marked our downturn. We were 8-3 before Kemba's return, including 1-0 without Smart during that time. We then went 2-3 with Kemba and Smart (losses to the Knicks and Sixers), before Smart's injury, then 8-9 while Smart was out.

edit - Tatum was sitting out when Kemba returned; so maybe it was probably Tatum's stint with covid that sparked our downfall.

[threrf23]

When Smart's out, these guys hang their head at the least bit of adversity and throw in the towel. Saw it first hand just a few months ago.

Maybe, maybe not, but I think it's important to make the distinction that Smart often tries to do it by himself, abandoning the team, or otherwise giving up on his teammates in the process. Given that he can't win us games by himself, that is arguably the equivalent of throwing in the towel. He's out there trying to win games, but he isn't always making an effort to help the team win games.

[Ernest]

When Smart's out, these guys hang their head at the least bit of adversity and throw in the towel. Saw it first hand just a few months ago.

Maybe, maybe not, but I think it's important to make the distinction that Smart often tries to do it by himself, abandoning the team, or otherwise giving up on his teammates in the process. Given that he can't win us games by himself, that is arguably the equivalent of throwing in the towel. He's out there trying to win games, but he isn't always making an effort to help the team win games.

You lost me when you said Smart isn't making an effort to help the team win games.

[grantlongforpresident]

Internal development.

There will of course be trades/additions/departures, but I wonder how far we could get with this? My rosiest take = 'championship is posssssssibllee!' My worst take is that we can lose in the ECF every year for all eternity. To quote Danny "I like [these] guys":

Tatum = star (best case = Kobe making a shot, worst case = Kobe missing a shot)
Jaylen = star (best case = Pippen, worst case = BCGM)
Robert = above-average impact starter (best case = Rodman, worst-case = Birdman)
Smart = enigma with a hopefully improved fg% (best case = Draymond? Eric Snow? worst-case = Metta Worldpeace)
Kemba = above-average starter (best case = Tony Parker?, worst case = DNP-knee)
Fournier = Grade A bench sniper/spot starter (best case = Lou Williams/Vinny Johnson, worst case = testicular gangrene)
Pritchard = solid bench sparkplug (best case = van Vleet, worst case = Chris Herren)
Nesmith = solid bench shooter/energy guy? (best case = shorter Walter McCarty or Saddiq Bey, worst case = DNP-CD)
Langford = messiah (best case = Larry Bird, worst case = not real)
Wagner = that goofy white guy who danced on LAL (best and worst cases combined)

Thanks to our picks and sudden range of salaries, I do think we can be a player when a star shakes loose. But I do think it's not impossible that we could develop like the old fashioned 'Bad Boy' Pistons did -- from playoff team to title contender (not in terms of personality, this would be the 'Good Guy' Celtics:).

This is fantastic.

[grantlongforpresident]

I don’t see a great path to a title. We have good talent but it’s the wrong combo of players.

[Fierce1]

When Smart's out, these guys hang their head at the least bit of adversity and throw in the towel. Saw it first hand just a few months ago.
Either the mental makeup of supposed "stars" Tatum and Brown are weak or the coach is incapable of getting it out of them.

How would you suggest that's fixed when you ship Smart out?

The mental makeup of Tatum and Brown will improve as they grow older.

We already know that the Celts will never win a championship with Marcus Smart around.

Throwing the ball away after the jump ball was so stupid.
Even high school players would not have done something so stupid like that.
And it was not the first time Marcus Smart did something stupid and demoralizing.

How can the Celts win a championship if Smart will try to be the hero in a close game?

One mistake or one ill-advised shot from Smart could be the difference between advancing to the next round of the playoffs or getting eliminated.

I'm sure Brad Stevens never told Smart to throw the ball if the Celts get that jump ball.
It was already understood that if the Celts got the ball, the shot clock will reset.
For a player in his 7th year in the NBA, there's just no excuse for not knowing that.

This current Celtics team has quite a few low basketball IQ players.

If the Celts want to return to the finals, they're going to need players who play the right way.

According to reports, other NBA teams value what Marcus Smart has to offer.

It's time for Ainge to cash in.

[aussie_pride]

Teague and Ojeleye actually have good on/off defensive numbers. Ojeleye isn't that surprising. He is solid and if he is on the court, you are going away from the double big. Teague..... I don't know how to explain that.

Even if you play with lineups, it is hard to find a positive impact on the defensive end with Timelord. Pairing him with Tatum doesn't even do much. The eye test tells you good things are happening, but I don't think it is clear cut. Part of the problem is that our defensive rebounding plummets. It plummets and teams convert those offensive rebounds at astounding rates. This isn't a new problem for Timelord either. Guys get beat, Timelord challenges (over challenges at times), it leaves an easy offensive rebound putback.

This is not true. Robert Williams is actually 2nd on the team for keeping players to below their shot %; the best is Jaylen Brown who holds players to under 3.9% of their regular shot percentage. Robert Williams comes in at 2%. Also, Robert Williams is coming in at 10th in the league for contested rebound percentage; that suggests that even though his numbers may not be impressive he is 1) grabbing quality rebounds and 2) capable of playing physically. Another thing to consider that if guys are getting beat to the rebound then it is because they are failing to box out their man.

I never said Robert wasn't a good individual rebounder. He is a fantastic rebounder. An absolute monster on both ends of the glass. He is great when he contests as well. I have no doubt about that. I don't think anybody does. It is after the contest when the problem happens. Maybe we can help him better, but I would bet that it isn't just guys not boxing out their guys. It is guys getting beat off the dribble, Rob helping, and then his man cleaning up the offensive glass. Maybe he isn't clearing out anybody either? Is he helping anybody else get boards or is it just him or bust. This wouldn't be the first athletic marvel to have this happen.

The fact that he is a great rebounder doesn't change that we don't defensive rebound well when he is on the court. Teams are rebounding 29.2% on the offensive glass with Robert on the floor. That is bad. It is 4.4% worse than when he is on the bench. This isn't an aberration either. It has happened his entire career. Teams are scoring 27pts per 100 misses with him on the court. That is in the bottom 3% of centers. Opponents offensive rating is 134.8 on those offensive rebounds. That is in the bottom 2%. That is 21.7pts worse with him on the court.

On the other hand, you have somebody like Thompson (who I don't like). The halfcourt defensive rating (before off rebounds) is actually almost the same for Thompson and Timelord. The experience on the defensive glass is completely different though. He isn't just a great individual defensive rebounder, but he also clears people out. Teams are only grabbing 22.6% with him on the court. And it wasn't the double big lineup, because it is actually even better with Thompson on and Theis off at 21.5%. Teams don't get nearly the amount of 2nd chance opportunities and they are less successful when they do, because Thompson isn't blocking any shots to end up out of position. That is my theory anyway.

Maybe the team needs to help the helper (RW) better. For whatever reason, we haven't been significantly better defensively with Timelord on the court. You can play around with lineups and it still isn't there. Our defensive rating is 113.0 and goes to 116.6 with him on the court. It is 111.3 with him on the bench. You can give him Tatum who has been an on/off monster his entire career. The defensive rating with Tatum is 112.0 overall. It is 110.5 without Timelord and 115.1 with Timelord. You can give him the Tatum/Brown combo and the rating is still worse with Timelord on than off, though not by much. What is consistent with all of these combos is that we are significantly worse on the defensive glass when Timelord is added to the mix.

This isn't a Timelord bashing session. I love the guy. I want to give him all the minutes he can handle. It just is what it is. The stuff he is good at on the defensive end is the stuff that is easiest to see. Everybody can see it. It jumps off the damn screen. Team defense isn't that easy to see. Right now, I think he is in the younger De Andre Jordan category where it looks like he is an elite defender, but he isn't. He is actually much more impactful on the offensive end.

*These are all Cleaning The Glass numbers, so you may find some differences.*

I do not have a subscription to Cleaning the Glass so I can't really check these numbers or other metrics from that site; I am using the official NBA stats. However, I will post my responses to your inferences below:

I never said Robert wasn't a good individual rebounder. He is a fantastic rebounder. An absolute monster on both ends of the glass. He is great when he contests as well. I have no doubt about that. I don't think anybody does. It is after the contest when the problem happens. Maybe we can help him better, but I would bet that it isn't just guys not boxing out their guys. It is guys getting beat off the dribble, Rob helping, and then his man cleaning up the offensive glass. Maybe he isn't clearing out anybody either? Is he helping anybody else get boards or is it just him or bust. This wouldn't be the first athletic marvel to have this happen.

2.3 out of the 3.8 field goals that Williams give up per game come from within less than 10ft of the basket. That suggests to me that he is being pulled out to help; if he was conceding the majority of his field goals within less than 6ft of the basket then that would suggest he has issues a rim protector and teams were attacking him as a result.

With regard to boxing out, it would not surprise me if the majority of guards are failing to box out their man and as a result we concede offensive rebounds and points in that fashion. The modern NBA guards are so lazy when it comes to this facet of the game. I put it down to the fact that this not a priority in the modern game; the emphasis is on getting back and preventing transition threes.

The fact that he is a great rebounder doesn't change that we don't defensive rebound well when he is on the court. Teams are rebounding 29.2% on the offensive glass with Robert on the floor. That is bad. It is 4.4% worse than when he is on the bench. This isn't an aberration either. It has happened his entire career. Teams are scoring 27pts per 100 misses with him on the court. That is in the bottom 3% of centers. Opponents offensive rating is 134.8 on those offensive rebounds. That is in the bottom 2%. That is 21.7pts worse with him on the court.

Given the fact that we both agree that Robert Williams is a good at rebounding, the conclusion I have drawn from your metrics is that when Robert is on the floor the rest of the team get lazy or complacent when rebounding. NBA stats has him at 7th in the league at for all centres for adjusted rebound percentage at 69.7%. This means that he is grabbing 69.7% of all rebounds available to him and is beating the likes of Joel Embiid and Rudy Gobert. The fact that teams are still scoring heavily off offensive rebounds while he is on the court suggests the blame lies elsewhere.

In summary, I think we need to be careful about being too critical of the Time Lord. Remember, he is not the finished article yet and player development is unpredictable in a lot of instances. Given what we have seen so far, I would argument that we have a lot to work with and I would much rather see us work with him then trade him and see some other team be the beneficiary.

[CelticFaninLBC]

Need either Langford or Nesmith to be really good and Rob Williams to remain healthy.

Ship has sailed on dealing Smart for a high pick and the Kemba signing appears to be a disaster.

If they try to add Beal via freeal agency, seems they'll need to gut the roster to fit him into cap space.

[Theocy]

It's probably time to figure out how we can deal with the wolves FO. That team has 2 potentially good players, is tanking all the way to oblivion and is most likely heading for another set of high picks.

We can offer Kemba as a tank master (sorry buddy) any picks we might have and try and lure away kat maybe. Not sure how we feel about Russel haven't followed him at all

[31to6]

Sad to say I’m not sure I believe in a Brown and Tatum duo getting us there anymore. Too many fancy dribble threes. All. The. Time.

Makes me sad, but we could presumably get a lot for either of them this summer. I’d much rather we move on from Brad first, of course, but after that. Don’t even know what I want, just something other than dribble dribble dribble sidestep three.

[Koji21]

When Smart's out, these guys hang their head at the least bit of adversity and throw in the towel. Saw it first hand just a few months ago.
Either the mental makeup of supposed "stars" Tatum and Brown are weak or the coach is incapable of getting it out of them.

How would you suggest that's fixed when you ship Smart out?

The mental makeup of Tatum and Brown will improve as they grow older.

We already know that the Celts will never win a championship with Marcus Smart around.

Throwing the ball away after the jump ball was so stupid.
Even high school players would not have done something so stupid like that.
And it was not the first time Marcus Smart did something stupid and demoralizing.

How can the Celts win a championship if Smart will try to be the hero in a close game?

One mistake or one ill-advised shot from Smart could be the difference between advancing to the next round of the playoffs or getting eliminated.

I'm sure Brad Stevens never told Smart to throw the ball if the Celts get that jump ball.
It was already understood that if the Celts got the ball, the shot clock will reset.
For a player in his 7th year in the NBA, there's just no excuse for not knowing that.

This current Celtics team has quite a few low basketball IQ players.

If the Celts want to return to the finals, they're going to need players who play the right way.

According to reports, other NBA teams value what Marcus Smart has to offer.

It's time for Ainge to cash in.

I agree. This Celtics team has low BB IQ. They are also weak and soft; not even close to the Garnet,Pierce,Rondo and Perkins toughness. Other teams don't get intimidated and just feel comfortable scoring over this current Celtics team. As far as our two stars, they have talent no doubt, but they don't make their teammates better. Too much iso ball from these two. We need to trade one for better and smarter players imo.

[cl2117]

I think it comes from a hail mary Net's type offer for a disgruntled star or it doesn't happen at all.

Ainge is clearly trying to go for a homerun. He had AD in his sights forever and then he's been looking for his next option since. I do think he'll get a crack at a star, but it's just a matter of who and when. Beal and KAT are the two names that are obvious. If there was a away to add either to Brown/Tatum, Celtics would be in business. With Timelord's emergence and Kemba's salary for matching, I think there's a route to that depending on how things shape up with those two guys. I could see a Rob plus all the picks/swaps plus a few other bodies being enough if Timelord continues to ascend. Either trio of Brown/Tatum/KAT or Brown/Tatum/Beal would be enough firepower to be a Finals contender every year.

If there isn't a path to getting one of those names without breaking up Brown/Tatum, I could see shipping out Jaylen. I don't think he and Jayson are incredibly tight and if this duo plateau's I can see trying something different with another star like the aforementioned Beal/KAT. C's would still need a path to finding a 3rd star via picks/players, but re-racking the top level talent might be a path forward.

The problem with those paths is that they involve other teams/players making choices in our favor. You need guys to ask out, you need teams to have locked up assets and not be in the mix, you need to be on the list of options for the guy your'e trading for.

Re-signing Fournier to a deal similar to Barnes would be a huge start towards the right direction. That trade would become an absolute steal, but think he gets overpaid by someone else. Keeping that money around with a useful rotation piece either helps once you have to sell the farm or as part of the deal a la Levert/Oladipo in the Harden deal.

[Ernest]

Grantedthe HOU game was one game, and against a really bad team...... BUT...... we looked like a different team out there. We were passing the ball. Guys were having fun again. Clearly we have more talent than our record shows. If we can string together some wins, get 4th seed and win at least one round in the playoffs- things will look a lot better going forward.

[poopship]

Trade Jaylen. I don't think he is a good fit with Tatum mainly because of his utter lack of vision and passing ability.

[31to6]

Trade Jaylen. I don't think he is a good fit with Tatum mainly because of his utter lack of vision and passing ability.

He’s my favorite player, but yeah maybe this summer if the rest of this season continues to look bad. Any time before then would’ve been too soon. We continue to suck and either management, Brad, or a star player has to go.

Get something like Brogdon+ for him, or maybe swing for the Beal/KAT fences, but then again most of us are tired of swinging for the fences.

Brogdon/Smart/Fournier/Tatum/RWilliams
Pritch/Holiday/Romeo!!/Grant/Thompson

In this scenario I guess we’ve traded Kemba for chips. 3rd string chips like Lays Barbecue or some ****.
Oh and Indy gave us one of the Holidays, I can’t remember which one.

[jmr07019]

Smart needs to go after the season.

Celts will never win a championship if Smart is the leader of the Celtics.

Nothing will change as long as Smart is around.

When Smart's out, these guys hang their head at the least bit of adversity and throw in the towel. Saw it first hand just a few months ago.
Either the mental makeup of supposed "stars" Tatum and Brown are weak or the coach is incapable of getting it out of them.

How would you suggest that's fixed when you ship Smart out?

Not saying him going out was what started all the losing, but weren't we at the top of the east for a minute there early on? Does anyone have the numbers for our record before Smart injury, during and after?

I believe we were 8-3 before Tatum got covid and Kemba came back. We’ve continued sucking after Smart came back from injury.

[LoquaciousLarry]

I think the Celtics need to turn into an uptempo team with Brown getting out in transition with Tatum. They're both capable of hitting the trailing 3 late on the break as well.

Their philosophy has to change to identify a solid defensive, pass first point guard who can push the break to maximize our wing scoring without having to isolate them. In addition, Robert Williams is a perfect fit for that style of play as he's a very good defender,rebounder and passer who can crash the offensive glass. A player like Lonzo Ball, DeAaron Fox, Lowry, Conley, Rondo, Rubio, McConnell etc.

Ainge needs to move some of the talent at the SG position as he has added a surplus while neglecting the PF position to get a capable 4 for the uptempo game like Aaron Gordon, Jaren Jackson, Jonathan Isaac, John Collins, Porzingis, or Siakam. Of course there are other options like Gallinari or Love but their pricetags at their age might not be worth it.

Brown, Tatum, Pritchard, RW, Fournier are all quality players worth keeping in a rotation. The other talent should be shopped to add the best players available to supplement these guys moving forward. Hopefully Nesmith or Langford become a player, but both should be available along with Kemba, Smart, Grant Will, Carsen Ed, etc to find players that fit in and will help their core building blocks do their job better and at a more efficient rate.

This looks like a deep draft so if they can shave cap by sending Smart or Kemba with their own first to move up and take a top 10 player, that would be highly advised.