McBubbles wrote:1. I'm surprised this thread is even still active, damn.
2. Kiddlovesnets, you say that pre-season odds are "very good at predicting the winners" and then go on to show from your chart that there is only a 50% chance that the pre-season favourite wins the title. In what universe is 50/50 prediction "very good"? You do understand that your method is 1% off from being, by definition, a below average predictor of success? 1% from being more incorrect than it is correct? That's like saying an E- is a very good grade when in reality it's as close to failing as you can possibly get.
You could say "There is mathematically a 3.33% chance of success for any given team at the start of the season, so a 50% chance is relatively speaking a very high probability" but that's only true in theory and not in practice. Some years they're only 2 teams in legitimate conversation for championship contention anyway, making your "very good" method as equally valid as a coin flip.
Also you keep on saying "matrix" and "methodology" like odds makers are extremely rigorous basketball heads heavily invested in the game, game tape, sabermetrics and data etc, NOT just bookies throwing out odds that get them the most money.
Why the thread cant still be alive? Just because you dont think it should be?
And yes, the 50% chance is actually quite high and reliable. I wont say there are total 30 teams, but its reasonable to expect that on average, at least 4-6 teams are in championship window. You have to consider that, some teams fell short because of injuries(2015 Cavs and 2019 Warriors), and sometimes mid-season trades happened(2004 and 2008) that significantly alter the title odds. If the pre-season favorites won in these years, the chance would bump up from 50% to 70%, which will look more respectful in your eyes?
I was using that chart to argue against sansterre's claim to use regular season records/stats. I never said that pre-season odds always yield title winners, some superstars underachieved and failed expectation. What we know for sure is, pre-season odds are much better metric than regular season odds if we want to predict the NBA champions. This tells that in playoffs, talents(ie. pre-season favorites) often beat teamwork(ie. regular season champs).
Anyway, Lebron aint the only one who performed below expectation consistently, in fact his 50% chance of winning as pre-season favorite is on par with the league average in the last 20 years. However, it looks quite bad because we are now comparing him to MJ, the latter won 100% of the time when he was in any champion window years(as preseason #1 or top 5). Lebron had such high expectation because he was projected to be as good as MJ, by failing these expectations we can tell that hes definitely not at MJ's level.