Lauri Markkanen Discussion Thread: PT 2

[CobyWhite0]

I think Markkanen is worth keeping...at the the right price. Unfortunately I think at least one team will make a offer that isn’t worth matching. I think he is actually learning how to playing as a big since Vuc have Theis joined the team.

I think 99% of us feel the same way - I'd say the only reason this thread even exists is because some folks think Lauri is worth $20 million/year, while the majority of us think he's worth more like $10 million/year.

Markkanen's QO is $9,026,952 ie pretty close to the $10 mio you are prepared to offer him or the $11 mio Bulls were ready to offer him. Which is why I think he will sign the QO if Bulls offers it, and he is then "free to go" (as by the finnish code of honour he has then fulfilled his part of the agreement with Bulls).

So far Markkanen has in total earned some $13 mio in NBA, and he has stated he has already earned more money than he will ever be able to spend, and money as such isn't the reason he is going to sign or not sign.

When you include this season's salary, Lauri has made just over $20 million so far.

And his code of honor has already been fulfilled as it pertains to the Bulls - his contract expires after the season, at which point he will have no obligation to the Bulls whatsoever.

The Bulls will definitely make a Qualifying Offer, they have to do so to keep Markkanen as a Restricted Free Agent. But that's just a formality, the real question is whether or not AKME plan to offer him a new contract? Or will they tell him and his agent to sign an Offer Sheet?

Or will they work with Lauri and his agent in trying to find a sign-and-trade?

[TeamMan]

If you look around the league, virtually no one has 4 players paid $20m or more. Many contenders have their 3rd highest paid guy at less than $20m.

If you think that Lauri is worth $20m, you are basically saying he is a 3rd/4th man on a contender. Some people think that is true, others don't.

I'm not saying Lauri is worth $20M. I would pay that amount only for a player who can create scoring opportunities for both himself and others.

I wrote that thing about salaries because I myself have struggled with raising salary cap and the fact that $10M used to be a big salary and is now mid level.

I see no reason for Lauri to sign a long term contract at $10M per. If there's no better offers he would probably just play out the QO or sign something like 1+1 with player option.

Players get signed for more than they are worth almost every off season. It all depends on money vs. talent available on the market.

Personally, I think some team will offer Lauri that $20m per year . . . or more. The FA class is terrible and lots of teams have money. Lauri is one of the more attractive targets. I have no issue with Lauri signing that contract.

I'm just trying to be realistic about this whole thing. I think that's the fundamental issue with Lauri and the Bulls right now. They don't think he is worth what he is about to be paid so both him and the team are consigned to the fact that he will be gone.

That's the fundamental issue, being realistic about how the NBA works.

That was what Gar/Pax never got right.

AK has the option of either working a S&T or waiting until the Trade Deadline, and then making a deal.

Gar/Pax would have just let him walk.

[sco]

I'm not saying Lauri is worth $20M. I would pay that amount only for a player who can create scoring opportunities for both himself and others.

I wrote that thing about salaries because I myself have struggled with raising salary cap and the fact that $10M used to be a big salary and is now mid level.

I see no reason for Lauri to sign a long term contract at $10M per. If there's no better offers he would probably just play out the QO or sign something like 1+1 with player option.

Players get signed for more than they are worth almost every off season. It all depends on money vs. talent available on the market.

Personally, I think some team will offer Lauri that $20m per year . . . or more. The FA class is terrible and lots of teams have money. Lauri is one of the more attractive targets. I have no issue with Lauri signing that contract.

I'm just trying to be realistic about this whole thing. I think that's the fundamental issue with Lauri and the Bulls right now. They don't think he is worth what he is about to be paid so both him and the team are consigned to the fact that he will be gone.

That's the fundamental issue, being realistic about how the NBA works.

That was what Gar/Pax never got right.

AK has the option of either working a S&T or waiting until the Trade Deadline, and then making a deal.

Gar/Pax would have just let him walk.

IMO, we might resign Lauri as "Theis insurance" - LOL.

I do wonder if we flip-flopped Williams and Lauri's positions if that would make any difference?

[waffle]

I'd be pretty darn surprised if Lauri was on the team when the next season starts. Loved his play of late. I was one of the people who thought he and Voch might compliment each other and it looks like they might. Still don't think he's part of the long term plan at this point

[Pentele]

Personally, I think some team will offer Lauri that $20m per year . . . or more. The FA class is terrible and lots of teams have money. Lauri is one of the more attractive targets. I have no issue with Lauri signing that contract.

I'm just trying to be realistic about this whole thing. I think that's the fundamental issue with Lauri and the Bulls right now. They don't think he is worth what he is about to be paid so both him and the team are consigned to the fact that he will be gone.

That's the fundamental issue, being realistic about how the NBA works.

That was what Gar/Pax never got right.

AK has the option of either working a S&T or waiting until the Trade Deadline, and then making a deal.

Gar/Pax would have just let him walk.

IMO, we might resign Lauri as "Theis insurance" - LOL.

I do wonder if we flip-flopped Williams and Lauri's positions if that would make any difference?

At the beginning of this season, I would not have believed that I am going to utter these words during the season: Lauri is currently playing better than Williams at 3. How much difference the switch would make is a completely different matter, though (ceteris paribus, I suspect not much).

(And before anyone gets their panties in a knot, note that I said "currently." The jury is still out, of course, and we have not seen Lauri enough at 3 to make any solid conclusions)

More generally, I think it would be better for Williams to start from the bench and thus not regularly be the worst player on the floor, but that is hardly a reason enough to keep Lauri in the team. But in connection to playing Lauri more at, 3 it might be something worth experimenting during the rest of the season if the Bulls feel they are not getting enough out of their players for their (a bit dubious) win-now agenda to work.

[coldfish]

That's the fundamental issue, being realistic about how the NBA works.

That was what Gar/Pax never got right.

AK has the option of either working a S&T or waiting until the Trade Deadline, and then making a deal.

Gar/Pax would have just let him walk.

IMO, we might resign Lauri as "Theis insurance" - LOL.

I do wonder if we flip-flopped Williams and Lauri's positions if that would make any difference?

At the beginning of this season, I would not have believed that I am going to utter these words during the season: Lauri is currently playing better than Williams at 3. How much difference the switch would make is a completely different matter, though (ceteris paribus, I suspect not much).

(And before anyone gets their panties in a knot, note that I said "currently." The jury is still out, of course, and we have not seen Lauri enough at 3 to make any solid conclusions)

More generally, I think it would be better for Williams to start from the bench and thus not regularly be the worst player on the floor, but that is hardly a reason enough to keep Lauri in the team. But in connection to playing Lauri more at, 3 it might be something worth experimenting during the rest of the season if the Bulls feel they are not getting enough out of their players for their (a bit dubious) win-now agenda to work.

Just as a clear IMO: Lauri is outplaying Pat by a LOT at the 3 right now. PW is just so damn passive.

[kodo]

Pat is passive and/because he doesn't really do anything that another Bull doesn't do better.

He's good near the rim (69%). But Vuc & Theis are better (71% and 76%).
He's good at the 3 point line (37%), but Lauri is better (39%), so is Vuc and Lavine when he returns.
He's OK in the paint, Vuc Theis & Thad are all a lot better.
He's good at the long 2 (40%), but Coby (47%) and Sato (70%) are a lot better.
He's not a better perimeter defender than Temple.
He's not a better interior defender than Theis.
He's a poor rebounder, his 9% rebound rate is below Denzel & Troy Brown.

If things are going well, and you hope they would, there isn't any reason for Pat to touch the ball.

I don't see anything glaringly bad about Pat's game. Right now he's very much a vanilla NBA guy out there because you need 5 people. I would almost rather have someone that I could say "he's extremely talented at _____, if only he could work on _____." That at least has a clear road to improvement.

I would be nice if after next summer Patrick came back with something to hang his hat on, something he's known for. Right now the closest seems to be 3P shooting. Although it seems disappointing to use a #4 pick to get a catch & shoot guy who doesn't do anything else.

[ChettheJet]

I don't know how much Billy was looking to get out of PW when the season started. He started him from opening night. Porter injured as usual, Temple was out, I doubt Valentine or Hutchison showed much in the pre season they had. Young nor Markkanen were looked at as 3's.

They opened the game against the Heat with 2 plays designed for Williams. Never went back to them. You have to look at the offense, when White or Lavine, and Vucevic or Theis are running some two man game PW is on the opposite side of the floor to create space. He can't just cut on the baseline or into the lane unless that's part of the play or he brings his man into the two man game on the strong side. They have to call plays for him and if you see that and him screwing up point them out. I just don't see them ever giving him much to do except wait for a kick out pass. He is the guy who drops back to prevent the fast break which is why you don't see him getting any offensive rebounds.

I think part of what keeps Patrick out of plays is they know he's going to be here long term. What they get from him this year is bonus seasoning. The Bulls know what Lauri and Thad, and now Theis and Vucevic, can do and remember they're still evaluating for next year. I think they want to see if Lauri is worth resigning and could they buy out Young and keep Theis instead as well as Satoransky, Temple and Valentine. So they keep going to those guys to be able to make the decision on them this off season with as much input as possible. And a lot of the time those veterans come up short in ways you might excuse in a young player but not from veterans you're counting on and who are playing for their next contract.

[sco]

Pat is passive and/because he doesn't really do anything that another Bull doesn't do better.

He's good near the rim (69%). But Vuc & Theis are better (71% and 76%).
He's good at the 3 point line (37%), but Lauri is better (39%), so is Vuc and Lavine when he returns.
He's OK in the paint, Vuc Theis & Thad are all a lot better.
He's good at the long 2 (40%), but Coby (47%) and Sato (70%) are a lot better.
He's not a better perimeter defender than Temple.
He's not a better interior defender than Theis.
He's a poor rebounder, his 9% rebound rate is below Denzel & Troy Brown.

If things are going well, and you hope they would, there isn't any reason for Pat to touch the ball.

I don't see anything glaringly bad about Pat's game. Right now he's very much a vanilla NBA guy out there because you need 5 people. I would almost rather have someone that I could say "he's extremely talented at _____, if only he could work on _____." That at least has a clear road to improvement.

I would be nice if after next summer Patrick came back with something to hang his hat on, something he's known for. Right now the closest seems to be 3P shooting. Although it seems disappointing to use a #4 pick to get a catch & shoot guy who doesn't do anything else.

People are upset that he isn't already better than the rest of the Bulls so that there is hope for the future.

[sco]

Projected Cap Space (from RealGM) https://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/261138/2021-NBA-Cap-Space-Projecting-All-30-Teams

New York 63,856,680

San Antonio 47,862,458

Oklahoma City 43,617,008

Dallas 34,458,606

Miami 26,950,162

Cleveland 23,915,849

Toronto 22,423,993

Charlotte 21,220,235

We are the only other team with any projected cap space.
____________________________

Knicks already have an All-Star PF, it's the one position they definitely have covered heading into the summer. I can't see why they would want to pay Lauri big dollars to come off the bench.

Spurs are definitely a possibility, most of their PF minutes have been going to DeRozan and Gay, and they're both free agents this summer. Poeltl would help cover Lauri's defensive deficiencies, and vice versa. But the Spurs have never been a team to spend big $$$ in free agency, one has to wonder if they'd be willing to offer Lauri enough money that the Bulls wouldn't match

OKC has nothing but kids (and Al Horford), they certainly could offer Lauri a huge contract. But they have so many draft picks, I don't know if they'd be interested in paying a lot of money for Lauri when they'll have all kinds of players on rookie deals

Dallas already has KP, I can't imagine they'll be interested in another injury-prone 7-footer who doesn't have a back to the basket post game.

The Heat are paying Jimmy and Bam a combined $64 million next season, their projected cap space assumes that Dragic, Iggy, Oladipo, Robinson and Dunn aren't re-signed. That is 100% guaranteed to not happen, at the very least Robinson and Dunn will be re-signed. That won't leave them with enough cap space to make an offer to Lauri.

Cleveland only has $24 million in cap space if they let Jarrett Allen walk. Even if they can re-sign him for $10 million next season (which IMO won't happen, he'll get more than that), that only leaves them about $14 million in cap space. That's a 4 year, $60 million contract, the Bulls might match that and worry about trading him later.

The Raptors have $71 million tied up in Siakam, Van Fleet, OG and Flynn. They have Siakam and OG locking down the forward positions, I can't imagine they'd spend a huge chunk of their cap space on another PF.

Charlotte has PJ Washington and Bridges manning the PF spot, and they can only create cap space by letting Zeller and Biyombo - their only 2 centers - walk. I can't see how Lauri is a fit for the Hornets.
____________________________

Any other team that wants Lauri would have to do it via a sign-and-trade.

Once you get into the details of each team with cap space, it doesn't look to me like Lauri is going to have more than 2 or 3 teams trying to sign him as a free agent.

Saw this in the game thread - some great points for this thread to debate. IMO, it's SA or nobody in FA w/o a S&T, which is better than I thought.

[pipfan]

I like Lauri as a back up 3/4/5. I wouldn't want him to walk for nothing

[sco]

I like Lauri as a back up 3/4/5. I wouldn't want him to walk for nothing

I think Lauri doesn't like Lauri as a backup anything and would be asking to be traded immediately (which would be fine if anyone would give us anything).

[GoBlue72391]

I think 99% of us feel the same way - I'd say the only reason this thread even exists is because some folks think Lauri is worth $20 million/year, while the majority of us think he's worth more like $10 million/year.

Markkanen's QO is $9,026,952 ie pretty close to the $10 mio you are prepared to offer him or the $11 mio Bulls were ready to offer him. Which is why I think he will sign the QO if Bulls offers it, and he is then "free to go" (as by the finnish code of honour he has then fulfilled his part of the agreement with Bulls).

So far Markkanen has in total earned some $13 mio in NBA, and he has stated he has already earned more money than he will ever be able to spend, and money as such isn't the reason he is going to sign or not sign.

Lauri signing the QO would be ok for us. I don't see a S&T coming or adding value. I respect codes of honor, but that's why guys have agents to shield them from dishonor. I expect someone will offer him $13-$15M per year, and he'll jump (I mean his agent will jump) all over it.

I only want to retain Lauri if we plan on expanding his role next season. I'm not down with paying Lauri $20M, $15M, $10M, or even the $9M QO if we're just going to continue using him as a 15-20 minute 8th/9th man bench guy.

That's terrible value for what is ultimately a pretty minor role. Guys like Temple ($5M) can do a better job of filling that role for much cheaper, although he obviously has a bigger role with the team currently due to our total lack of SF production.

[GoBlue72391]

I'd be pretty darn surprised if Lauri was on the team when the next season starts. Loved his play of late. I was one of the people who thought he and Voch might compliment each other and it looks like they might. Still don't think he's part of the long term plan at this point

I think management made up their mind on the Vuch-Lauri pairing far too soon, without even giving it a chance. If reports are to be believed, they had already decided that the pairing won't work even before they officially completed the trade. We gave them one token game starting together before we gave up on the pairing. Personally I think Lauri's newfound defensive improvements, post scoring, and versatility to play as a jumbo SF goes a long way to dispel most of the concerns about the Vuch-Lauri pairing.

I also like the idea of a Vuch, Lauri, Theis frontcourt moving forward, but like I said before, it seems like management has already made their decision. You could throw Thad in their as well, but that's too many cooks in the kitchen IMO and creates the logjam we're seeing now, and you don't want to tie up a significant portion of your cap space in 4 players who play the same positions.

[MrSparkle]

I'd be pretty darn surprised if Lauri was on the team when the next season starts. Loved his play of late. I was one of the people who thought he and Voch might compliment each other and it looks like they might. Still don't think he's part of the long term plan at this point

I think management made up their mind on the Vuch-Lauri pairing far too soon, without even giving it a chance. If reports are to be believed, they had already decided that the pairing won't work even before they officially completed the trade. We gave them one token game starting together before we gave up on the pairing. Personally I think Lauri's newfound defensive improvements, post scoring, and versatility to play as a jumbo SF goes a long way to dispel most of the concerns about the Vuch-Lauri pairing.

I also like the idea of a Vuch, Lauri, Theis frontcourt moving forward, but like I said before, it seems like management has already made their decision. You could throw Thad in their as well, but that's too many cooks in the kitchen IMO and creates the logjam we're seeing now, and you don't want to tie up a significant portion of your cap space in 4 players who play the same positions.

Well - until contracts are signed, nobody has made up anybody's mind. But yes, it would certainly make no sense to invest $80m of salary into the 4 guys who can hardly share the floor.

I am curious what will happen. I've been low on Lauri, but we're going over cap anyway, probably don't get that top pick... and Lauri holds better value tomorrow... so you do have to question the intelligence in investing in Thad over Lauri, if there isn't a plan to recoup an asset. Thad's a declining $15m backup rental next year, and then what?

There are going to be a lot of business choices. In a simple scenario, you just swap Lauri for the starter we need. But you don't really know until draft order is set in stone, playoff underachievers and overachievers are emotionally evaluated, and free agency plays out. There could be a team that emerges that *really* wants Lauri, depending on their need for a big spacer or a rebuild situation with tons of cap to throw away. Or maybe there's no market for him, and he does settle at a low 1-2y trial deal.

Artunas could still be playing the long-game of trying to convince Lauri of taking a low $15m salary with some player options ala J. Randle, and focusing on his development with a 2y plan of taking Vuc's starting job. I don't see it, but it's going to be an interesting summer. The Lonzo swap does seem to make sense, I'm just turned off by the salary figures bounced around.

[DunkenDunk]

They opened the game against the Heat with 2 plays designed for Williams. Never went back to them. You have to look at the offense, when White or Lavine, and Vucevic or Theis are running some two man game PW is on the opposite side of the floor to create space. He can't just cut on the baseline or into the lane unless that's part of the play or he brings his man into the two man game on the strong side. They have to call plays for him and if you see that and him screwing up point them out. I just don't see them ever giving him much to do except wait for a kick out pass. He is the guy who drops back to prevent the fast break which is why you don't see him getting any offensive rebounds.

It's kind of funny that your description could also fit for the style Lauri used to play when he was starter. I am wondering how much of that is planned game strategy? Or is it just that young players are sometimes too "team friendly" and should just demand more ball. Or is it because of the isolation gamestyle that Chicago quite often plays.

There has been some small improvements now both in team defence and team offence and I think that has helped at least Lauri's game for now to come little bit more relaxed. Let's hope it will help also PW to get some confidence back.

[MalagaBulls]

The Athletic mentioned this on their Theis vs Lauri " What to do comparison". I would not read too much into it.

Read on Twitter

Lauri is last in the line headed to the locker room & AK ignores him.

[sco]

Can't believe we're already at 20 pages in PT2.

[TeamMan]

Can't believe we're already at 20 pages in PT2.

The plot keeps getting thicker!

[TeamMan]

The Athletic mentioned this on their Theis vs Lauri " What to do comparison". I would not read too much into it.

Read on Twitter

Lauri is last in the line headed to the locker room & AK ignores him.

Nice observation!

Watched this video several times, and it appears clear that:

- Vuc and Sato were palling it up together

- Lauri was trailing behind them and looked left out

- and AK was waiting especially to give Vuc some special attention, but ignored Lauri

Makes you wonder if something has already gone down between Lauri's agent and AK that we don't know about.

Also makes you wonder if AK already has a deal waiting on the table for a Sign-and-Trade.