Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective

[Tor_Raps]

The way we plug in the below holes will determine how great of a 2021/2022 season we have. Assuming Masai stays, I have a strong belief we will be a top tier team next year.

PG Fred - Flynn - FA/DP
SG FA/DP - Trent jr - Harris
SF OG - FA/DP - Bembry
PF Siakam - Boucher - Yuta
C FA/DP - Birch - Gillespie

*FA/DP = Free Agent/Draft Pick

[ruckus]

Portis is a good suggestion. He's getting paid peanuts in Milwaukee and he has a player option for next season. Based on his play this year and the dried up market, he'll definitely opt out.

He feels like he's been in the league forever but he's still only 25/26. He's a good rebounder and a good 3-pt shooter. I don't know if he necessarily fits our defensive need at the C spot and he doesn't seem all that good as a screener but he seems to check the other boxes.

I'd also see if we could explore a trade for Poeltl. He checks all the boxes except for being able to shoot the 3. There's no questions about his rebounding, screening and defense, he's an underrated shot blocker and he doesn't demand a lot of touches. The touches he does get, he makes at a pretty good clip (62% TS% on 13% Usage). Problem is, San Antonio is guard heavy, I don't know if we have anything that would interest them.

[kj_]

This is really good analysis but there's a problem. It assumes that drafted players immediately start contributing.

Especially for picks outside the top 5....you're usually looking at meaningful contributions 2 to 3 seasons away. At which time a team's needs are usually different.

I think you just take the the best player available regardless of need.

Very true.


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[ciueli]

A few more stats: the Raptors are also 29th in fouls per game (only Washington is worse), 29th in opponent blocks per game (only Detroit is worse), 30th in opponent FTA per FGA, and 28th in win percentage in close games (only Detroit and Chicago are worse).

[Badonkadonk]

Target
i. Guards who shoots better , Preferably shoots over 45% and ~ 40% behind the arc.
ii. PF / C who can rebound, score in the paint, block shots and shoot less 3s.

1. NBA Draft
Depends on which pick we are going to get , these players fit into these categories
First Round, with limited big man with good upside available, i think the Raps should draft a guard or wing player.
Mock draft #3
Jalen Suggs
6-4, 205 Point Guard (FG 50%, 3P 33%)
Mock draft #4
Jalen Green
6-6, 180 Shooting Guard(FG 46%, 3P 37%)
Mock draft #6
Scottie Barnes
6-9, 225 Small Forward/Power Forward(FG 50%, 3P 28%)
Mock draft #9
Davion Mitchell
6-2, 205 Point Guard(FG 51%, 3P 45%)
Mock draft #10
Corey Kispert
6-7, 220 Shooting Guard/Small Forward(FG 52%, 3P 44%)

Nice write-up. Barnes is the guy I'm hoping the Raps get out of the 8th-10th spot, which is currently the most likely draft slot with games running out quickly. I think he'll round out his offensive game. Davion is a great backup-plan in that draft range imo.

UFA:
Tier 1
1. Enes Kanter C, 6-10, 250lb(FG 60%, 11.4pts, 11.8 rebound,0.7block)
2. Willy Hernangomez PF/C, 6-11, 250lb (Per 36mins, FG 56%, 14.9pts, 14 rebound, 1.1block)
3. Richaun Holmes PF/C 6-10, 235lb (FG 64%, 14.3pts, 8.7 rebound,1.6block)
Tier 2
1. Cameron Payne PG 6-1, 183lb (Per 36mins FG 47%, 3P 40%, 15.6pts, 7.4asts)
2. Harry Giles PF/C, 6-11, 240lb (Per 36mins, FG 41%, 10.2pts, 13.6 rebound,1.1block)
RFA"
1. Jarret Allen C PF/C, 6-11 (FG 64%, 13.3pts, 9.9 rebound,1.5block)
2. Malik Monk SG, 6-3, 200lb(FG 46%, 3P 42%, 13.1pts)

Player Options:
Bobby Portis PF/C, 6-10, 250lb(Per 36mins, FG 53%, 19.4pts, 12 rebound,0.6block)

G-League FA

Omer Yurtseven C, 7-0, 264lb (FG 62%, 15.2pts, 9.3 rebound, 1.4block)

Again, these recommendations were primarily based on statistical point of view. Let me know your thoughts on these suggestions.

I disagree on Kanter, he's awful defensively and wouldn't fit well. This current iteration of the Blazers has always had that fatal flaw, and I don't see Webster/Nurse being eager to adopt it. He'd be like a younger version of Baynes - all rebounding/screens/garbage points, while trading off too much D.

I would absolutely love Holmes, but I think he's gonna get paid and chances of him coming are small. I like Willy's game, but very inconsistent.

Portis is a good idea. Zero chance Jarret Allen leaves.

Holmes is the only guy I make room for in lieu of Birch's minutes. I think Birch still has some room for growth despite his age, as his brief run here has already shown.

[blaateeee]

Draft Scottie Barnes, sign richuan holmes, Jamychal Green, and PJ Tucker

FVV/Flynn
Barnes/Trent
OG/PJ Tucker
Pascal/Green
Holmes/Birch

Solidifies Center position, Barnes adds size, defense and another playmaker to guards, Tucker and Green help the bench with shooting and solid defenders/vet presence.

That is your guide to a 50+ win team again.

your welcome.

[kj_]

Draft Scottie Barnes, sign richuan holmes, Jamychal Green, and PJ Tucker

FVV/Flynn
Barnes/Trent
OG/PJ Tucker
Pascal/Green
Holmes/Birch

Solidifies Center position, Barnes adds size, defense and another playmaker to guards, Tucker and Green help the bench with shooting and solid defenders/vet presence.

That is your guide to a 50+ win team again.

your welcome.

Barnes is very intriguing. Brings playmaking alongside Fred. OG and siakam are also developing in this area as well. They would be huge 2-4 with switch-ability to guard all 5 positions. It would all hinge on whether or not Barnes and Siakam can get their 3Pt% from sub 30 to at least 35%. If they can both get to 37 or “gasp” 40% then this team could really have something.


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[vanhill]

Having a big that can shoot the 3 can positively impact all those numbers. The lane is more open for penetration for the wings and guards ... especially for Fred. He can’t score at the rim when the rim protector is there with Baynes, a non-finisher sitting in the dunker spot. Pull the big away and Fred will finish better. If the help comes, then the kick out to shooters happens. If a non-shooter is out there, teams leave him open and rotate to the shooting threats lowering their quality attempts and therefor their percentage and overall points.

Scoring in the paint is vital in this NBA, it just doesn’t need to be from a big.

Birch is a non-shooter that has worked okay because he makes quick reads when he gets the ball in the paint on PnR’s and gets the ball to shooters. He can also finish inside compared to Baynes. However, the offence has a pretty low ceiling with him on the floor because the paint is clogged. The team recognizes this and I’m sure he is working diligently on adding a respectable 3. He’s already being encouraged to take them and has made a few.

I think you are absolutely right. i like Gillespie game but definitely would prefer our bigman to be able to hit 3s consistently. A balanced inside and outside game.
I was trying to avoid player like Morris brothers or Bertans who primarily scores from the 3 point zone. First, the scoring percentage for these 3point shooters are much lower and he cant get as much offensive rebound since he is staying behind the Arc most of the time. We need more second chance scoring opportunities . I am comfortable with our bigs to take 2-3 3 point shots per game but not shooting primarily from the downtown.

Drafting or signing a big that can rim, protect, rebound, make quick reads on offence and shoot from distance isn’t really possible as those are the elite guys at their position. So you need to draft or develop this player. The question is, do you start with a traditional big and teach him to shoot, or draft an athletic shooter and teach him to defend, rebound and make the right reads.

Excellent point. therefore, i often prefer someone who is a couple of years NBA experiences. They are definitely more NBA ready. Therefore, i wish we can get some Bigs who fits the bill in the upcoming offseason.

[Wannabe MEP]

I was trying to avoid player like Morris brothers or Bertans who primarily scores from the 3 point zone. First, the scoring percentage for these 3point shooters are much lower and he cant get as much offensive rebound since he is staying behind the Arc most of the time. We need more second chance scoring opportunities . I am comfortable with our bigs to take 2-3 3 point shots per game but not shooting primarily from the downtown.

There are some fundamental misunderstandings in your logic here.

1. TS% is dramatically more important than FG%. TS% incorporates three point shooting and free throw shooting, so someone like Davis Bertans can have a lower FG% than someone like Russell Westbrook (40.3 vs 44.0) but a much higher TS% (62.3 vs 50.5) because so many of his shots are from three. 40% from three is worth 60% from two: 4/10 from three is 12 points, and 6/10 from two is 12 points.

2. Shooting threes creates second chance scoring opportunities. 4/10 from three vs 6/10 from two is the same points, but the three point shots create two extra chances at offensive rebounds. Also, they tend to be longer rebounds, and also, the defense tends to be more spread to defend the three point line. So while a player like Bertans doesn't get a lot of offensive rebounds individually, the TEAM gets more offensive rebounds when he's on the court than when he's not.

3. You're trying to piece together a good offense with individual box score stats, but that's just fundamentally not how it works. Shooting threes creates spacing which creates easy looks for other players. So, e.g., the Wizards are significantly better at offense overall when Bertans is on the court than when he isn't (OffRtg 112.3 vs 106.5). Bertans is rated extremely highly in advanced plus/minus offensive stats like ORPM and offensive RAPTOR and offensive RAPM.

NBA people that know just a little bit about advanced stats know without a doubt that a guy like Bertans makes the offense better, period. (The question about Bertans has to do entirely with the other side of the court.)

[vanhill]

Excellent post Los Soles.

1. I will have a look on TS%, another perspective for us to consider.

2. I don't know if it could help us on this. Raptors are #4 in 3point attempt but our offensive rebound is still one of the worst in the league. So , it is not really working for the raps. I guess we would still need someone to get the off. rebound and create more second chances in the offensive end.

3. I like bertans, he has one of the Best shooting form in the league. Nice analysis on his game.

[rrdjutriurt]

If Raps number one target not available when their pick comes up. Davion Mitchell although only 6'2, would be a great pick. Top defensive player who can drive to the basket with great handles, powerful first step and the "it" factor when game on the line. Very tough dude.

Between Malachi and Mitchell you would be set with a top quality guard off the bench, who can both guard and also run a team and score when he has to.

[ruckus]

Excellent post Los Soles.

1. I will have a look on TS%, another perspective for us to consider.

2. I don't know if it could help us on this. Raptors are #4 in 3point attempt but our offensive rebound is still one of the worst in the league. So , it is not really working for the raps. I guess we would still need someone to get the off. rebound and create more second chances in the offensive end.

3. I like bertans, he has one of the Best shooting form in the league. Nice analysis on his game.

#2 is generally by design. The Raps (and other teams) forego offensive rebounds in order to get back on defense and limit transition opportunities. It worked beautifully for the team last season. This season, they don't really have the personnel to execute it as well.

[Indeed]

If Raps number one target not available when their pick comes up. Davion Mitchell although only 6'2, would be a great pick. Top defensive player who can drive to the basket with great handles, powerful first step and the "it" factor when game on the line. Very tough dude.

Between Malachi and Mitchell you would be set with a top quality guard off the bench, who can both guard and also run a team and score when he has to.

Mitchell does not have a great handle yet, but wouldn't mind drafting him.

He is playing with Butler, who is another combo guard, which I think he will excel playing next with VanVleet, but not Flynn who plays a slow setup game. May pair Mitchell with Trent instead of Flynn at the back court, which I think we can have a big back court to compensate our lack of size at C.

Assume we draft Mitchell, I think we still need a C and a 3&D SF:
Birch/[Gillespie]
Siakam/Boucher
OG/Watanabe
Trent/Bembry/[Watson]
VanVleet/Mitchell/Flynn

[Merit]

I see the Raps issues in this way:

-need the ability to score in the midrange. Is there anyone on this team you trust to make mid range jumpers consistently...even when wide open??
-big man that can guard the pnr, rebound, catch and finish (Birch has shown signs of this)
-shot creation off the bench
-Siakam and FVV to develop an in-between game and hopefully one day become consistent from deep
-more size at the 2/3 spot...lack of size hurts our 3 pt defence badly as well as our rebounding and loose ball recovery

When I read this I immediately think we should try and re-sign Demar - this time as a PF in a switchy lineup. Ideally we'd keep Khem as well.

[pogi]

I see the Raps issues in this way:

-need the ability to score in the midrange. Is there anyone on this team you trust to make mid range jumpers consistently...even when wide open??
-big man that can guard the pnr, rebound, catch and finish (Birch has shown signs of this)
-shot creation off the bench
-Siakam and FVV to develop an in-between game and hopefully one day become consistent from deep
-more size at the 2/3 spot...lack of size hurts our 3 pt defence badly as well as our rebounding and loose ball recovery

When I read this I immediately think we should try and re-sign Demar - this time as a PF in a switchy lineup. Ideally we'd keep Khem as well.

LOL, there is no way Demar will resign with Raptors after that humiliating trade.

[Merit]

I see the Raps issues in this way:

-need the ability to score in the midrange. Is there anyone on this team you trust to make mid range jumpers consistently...even when wide open??
-big man that can guard the pnr, rebound, catch and finish (Birch has shown signs of this)
-shot creation off the bench
-Siakam and FVV to develop an in-between game and hopefully one day become consistent from deep
-more size at the 2/3 spot...lack of size hurts our 3 pt defence badly as well as our rebounding and loose ball recovery

When I read this I immediately think we should try and re-sign Demar - this time as a PF in a switchy lineup. Ideally we'd keep Khem as well.

LOL, there is no way Demar will resign with Raptors after that humiliating trade.

LOL, we would have the cap space and would be an ideal situation for him. LOL, he's played for the raptors before and stans the city. LOL, the olive branch has been extended by Masai and the Raptors organization and it seems like he's responded.

[Indeed]

Raptors ranking:
ORtg - 112.1 (14th) - 110.8 (13th last season) - same
DRtg - 111.6 (15th) - 104.7 (2nd last season) - drop
AST% - 61.1% (13th)) - 62.7 (9th last season) - drop slightly
OReb% - 25.5% (tied 19th) - 25.6% (25th last season) - same
DReb% - 71.7% (tied 27th) - 72.1% (22th last season) - drop slightly
TOV% - 13.4 (10th) - 14.6% (tied 17th last season) - rise slightly
TS% - 57.1% (18th) - 57.4% (8th last season) - drop
Pace - 99.55 (14th) - 101.19 (12th last season) - drop slightly

4 Factors:
FTA rate% - 24.1% (18th) - 26.4% (tied 12th last season)
EFG% - 53.3% (20th) - 53.6% (8th last season)
TOV% - 13.4% (10th) - 14.6% (tied 17th last season)
OReb% - 25.5% (tied 19th) - 25.6% (25th last season)

Opp FTA rate% - 29.4% (30th) - 26.3% (tied 15th last season)
Opp EFG% - 54.1% (tied 19th) - 50.2% (2nd last season)
Opp TOV% - 16.3% (1st) - 16.5% (2nd last season)
Opp OReb% - 28.3 (tied 27th) - 27.9 (22th last season)

Offense:
%FGA 2pt - 55.2 (tied 26th) - 57.5 (25th last season)
%PTS 2pt - 44.8 (28th) - 46.9 (27th last season)
%PTS 2pt MR - 6.1 (tied 24th) - 5.4 (25th last season)
%PTS PITP - 38.7 (27th) - 41.5 (tied 20th last season)
%FGA 3Pt - 44.8 (4th) - 42.1 (6th last season)
%PTS 3pt - 39.5 (3rd) - 36.8 (3rd last season)
%PTS FBPS - 12.6 (tied 4th) - 16.7 (1st last season)
%PTS FT - 15.6 (tied 10th) - 16.4 (tied 11th last season)
FGM %AST - 61.4 (tied 13th) - 62.7 (9th last season)
2FGM %AST - 49 (19th) - 53 (8th last season)
3FGM %AST - 82.6 (18th) - 81.1 (tied 19th last season)
OPP BLK - 5.7 (tied 27th) - 5.5 (tied 23rd last season)
Corn 3P% - 23.2% (tied 12th) - 21.7 (11th last season)
Corn 3AST% - 82.6% (tied 18th) - 81.1% (tied 19 last season)

Defense:
Opp FGM - 38.8 (tied 2nd) - 37.8 (1st last season)
Opp FG% - 45.9 (8th) - 42.8 (2nd last season)
Opp 3PM - 13.8 (26th) - 13.1 (tied 24th last season)
Opp 3P% - 37.8 (25th) - 33.7 (1st last season)
Opp FTM - 19.8 (29th) - 17.8 (14th last season)
Opp FTA - 24.9 (28th) - 23.2 (15th last season)
Opp AST% - 25.8 (tied 24th) - 25.6 (tied 26th last season)
Opp BLKA - 5.5 (tied 3rd) - 5.0 (tied 13th last season)
Opp Pts off TOV - 15.7 (7th) - 16.9 (15th last season)
Opp Pts 2nd chance - 13.9 (25th) - 13.5 (22th last season)
Opp Pts fast break - 11.1 (5th) - 12.7 (11th last season)
Opp Pts paint - 42.5 (2nd) - 41.5 (2nd last season)
Opp Corn 3P% - 27.1% (29th) - 30.8% (30th last season)
Opp Corn 3AST% - 89.1% (30th) - 88.4% (30th last season)

[kj_]

I was trying to avoid player like Morris brothers or Bertans who primarily scores from the 3 point zone. First, the scoring percentage for these 3point shooters are much lower and he cant get as much offensive rebound since he is staying behind the Arc most of the time. We need more second chance scoring opportunities . I am comfortable with our bigs to take 2-3 3 point shots per game but not shooting primarily from the downtown.

There are some fundamental misunderstandings in your logic here.

1. TS% is dramatically more important than FG%. TS% incorporates three point shooting and free throw shooting, so someone like Davis Bertans can have a lower FG% than someone like Russell Westbrook (40.3 vs 44.0) but a much higher TS% (62.3 vs 50.5) because so many of his shots are from three. 40% from three is worth 60% from two: 4/10 from three is 12 points, and 6/10 from two is 12 points.

2. Shooting threes creates second chance scoring opportunities. 4/10 from three vs 6/10 from two is the same points, but the three point shots create two extra chances at offensive rebounds. Also, they tend to be longer rebounds, and also, the defense tends to be more spread to defend the three point line. So while a player like Bertans doesn't get a lot of offensive rebounds individually, the TEAM gets more offensive rebounds when he's on the court than when he's not.

3. You're trying to piece together a good offense with individual box score stats, but that's just fundamentally not how it works. Shooting threes creates spacing which creates easy looks for other players. So, e.g., the Wizards are significantly better at offense overall when Bertans is on the court than when he isn't (OffRtg 112.3 vs 106.5). Bertans is rated extremely highly in advanced plus/minus offensive stats like ORPM and offensive RAPTOR and offensive RAPM.

NBA people that know just a little bit about advanced stats know without a doubt that a guy like Bertans makes the offense better, period. (The question about Bertans has to do entirely with the other side of the court.)

First off, I’m very pro having shooters at all 5 positions, especially C.

Just a comment on #2. It is a common perception that there are more offensive rebounds on 3’s as you described and that theoretically missed 3’s give longer rebounds which the offence should have a better chance to grab. I’ll add that offensive rebounds often seem to end up generating open 3 attempts.

What is rarely mentioned in this debate is that those long missed 3’s start run outs on the other end. Leading to either straight transition buckets or create mismatches when defences are scrambling to get back.

The waters end up pretty muddied on finding a clear strategy that works best.


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[TorontoRapsFan]

Raptors ranking:
ORtg - 112.1 (14th) - 110.8 (13th last season) - same
DRtg - 111.6 (15th) - 104.7 (2nd last season) - drop
AST% - 61.1% (13th)) - 62.7 (9th last season) - drop slightly
OReb% - 25.5% (tied 19th) - 25.6% (25th last season) - same
DReb% - 71.7% (tied 27th) - 72.1% (22th last season) - drop slightly
TOV% - 13.4 (10th) - 14.6% (tied 17th last season) - rise slightly
TS% - 57.1% (18th) - 57.4% (8th last season) - drop
Pace - 99.55 (14th) - 101.19 (12th last season) - drop slightly

4 Factors:
FTA rate% - 24.1% (18th) - 26.4% (tied 12th last season)
EFG% - 53.3% (20th) - 53.6% (8th last season)
TOV% - 13.4% (10th) - 14.6% (tied 17th last season)
OReb% - 25.5% (tied 19th) - 25.6% (25th last season)

Opp FTA rate% - 29.4% (30th) - 26.3% (tied 15th last season)
Opp EFG% - 54.1% (tied 19th) - 50.2% (2nd last season)
Opp TOV% - 16.3% (1st) - 16.5% (2nd last season)
Opp OReb% - 28.3 (tied 27th) - 27.9 (22th last season)

Offense:
%FGA 2pt - 55.2 (tied 26th) - 57.5 (25th last season)
%PTS 2pt - 44.8 (28th) - 46.9 (27th last season)
%PTS 2pt MR - 6.1 (tied 24th) - 5.4 (25th last season)
%PTS PITP - 38.7 (27th) - 41.5 (tied 20th last season)
%FGA 3Pt - 44.8 (4th) - 42.1 (6th last season)
%PTS 3pt - 39.5 (3rd) - 36.8 (3rd last season)
%PTS FBPS - 12.6 (tied 4th) - 16.7 (1st last season)
%PTS FT - 15.6 (tied 10th) - 16.4 (tied 11th last season)
FGM %AST - 61.4 (tied 13th) - 62.7 (9th last season)
2FGM %AST - 49 (19th) - 53 (8th last season)
3FGM %AST - 82.6 (18th) - 81.1 (tied 19th last season)
OPP BLK - 5.7 (tied 27th) - 5.5 (tied 23rd last season)

Defense:
Opp FGM - 38.8 (tied 2nd) - 37.8 (1st last season)
Opp FG% - 45.9 (8th) - 42.8 (2nd last season)
Opp 3PM - 13.8 (26th) - 13.1 (tied 24th last season)
Opp 3P% - 37.8 (25th) - 33.7 (1st last season)
Opp FTM - 19.8 (29th) - 17.8 (14th last season)
Opp FTA - 24.9 (28th) - 23.2 (15th last season)
Opp AST% - 25.8 (tied 24th) - 25.6 (tied 26th last season)
Opp BLKA - 5.5 (tied 3rd) - 5.0 (tied 13th last season)
Opp Pts off TOV - 15.7 (7th) - 16.9 (15th last season)
Opp Pts 2nd chance - 13.9 (25th) - 13.5 (22th last season)
Opp Pts fast break - 11.1 (5th) - 12.7 (11th last season)
Opp Pts paint - 42.5 (2nd) - 41.5 (2nd last season)

WTF happened to have that kind of difference?

[Ell Curry]

Seeing that Jaxson Hayes has improved his shooting makes me think maybe we can work out a Boucher for Hayes deal. He projects as a guy who could make real shooting strides and Boucher might fit better with Zion as they try to make the playoffs next year. We're picking 4 spots ahead of them so maybe they want to move up to get Scottie Barnes or Mitchell (might have to move up to our pick then move up to 6 for Barnes) because they're gonna need defensive guys to compliment Zion and Ingram. Mitchell in particular looks a perfect fit for them as a playmaker and 3pt shooter who can D up.

Anyways, I'd rather bring in a young guy we think is gonna make a leap than pay premium for an athletic guy like Holmes on say a 4 year deal where his final 2 seasons are age 31 and 32 and he's just a guy. I guess I'm also sneaky into a Zach Collins RFA offer for the same reason. One of those guys might become an average 3pt shooter to space the floor and and be a shot blocker.